Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[Trooper]

I often wonder if it was him who set the bush fire that happened around the same time Samantha went missing

I thought so immediately, at the time, particularly the one around Clunes, .. the heatwave that occurred while she was still designated as missing had a few fires spontaneously burning, due to dry lightning, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility that someone who had stuff to hide had a hand in starting a few... fire burns crimes into oblivion,

 

[SouthAussie]

It's not about legal defence. It's about whether this planned in which case there could easily be other cases. If it was unplanned and he was intoxicated, the likelihood of other cases is lower.

Just a heads up ... the mods asked us at one point to make a different thread if we wanted to discuss the other attack in Lal Lal forest - as this thread is strictly about Sam. I don't think anyone did though.

(I, also, have a feeling that there could be a possible link.)

imo

 

[drsleuth]

I wonder, did PS ever help in any of the searchers?

 

[Ooohm]

I really want to know what kind of behaviour PS has exhibited around females of all ages. Especially during his school years. Guess it will all come out eventually.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Just a heads up ... the mods asked us at one point to make a different thread if we wanted to discuss the other attack in Lal Lal forest - as this thread is strictly about Sam. I don't think anyone did though.

(I, also, have a feeling that there could be a possible link.)

imo

Ok , Thanks, you are really helpful. The similarity to this attack being a middle aged female who regularly runs occurring on an anniversary of the previous attack is hard to ignore. I am not going to discuss that attack. This sort of attack is reasonably uncommon. My thread is about working out where she could be.

It always sticks in my throat how the police did not link the Karrakatta cemetery attack to the Claremont serial killer despite being abducted on the street and raped from the same location a couple of months before. It took them 10 years to make a link. If they had made the link earlier they would be looking for an electricians or Telstra van much earlier. Instead they went on a wild goose chase

 

[Trooper]

I wonder, did PS ever help in any of the searchers?

A peculiar habit of murderers.. they do want to be involved in the search.. would not surprise me, depends on his work schedule, but he would have been a bit of a standout, since darn near everyone set out to search. particularly young fit healthy men with local knowledge... Time was of the essence due to the weather, so ......

Ryan Williams, of Corowa, NSW, 23 at the time, was a terrific help in the search for Shana Wilkinson, back in 2009. . he was a member of the Search and Rescue squad on the Murray River, was out in the billabongs day and night, guiding people, assisting the other searchers..

All the while, Shana's body was stacked in his attic room, he 'd murdered her 'after a short argument'. he got only 16 years for it.. dreadful.

 

[wallyworld]

How do you know he didn’t use those roads?

​

Trawling through an unprecedented amount of evidence, including possibly thousands of hours of CCTV footage. How many staff would be assigned trawling through the cctv duty do you think? Imagine the cost of this job alone.

The new documentary on Netflix, The Lie: the murder of Grace Millane highlights CCTV footage and how it was used to solve her murder. Hopefully, there is enough incriminating CCTV to nail PS and for him to realise that the game is up and allow Sam's family the answers they so clearly deserve.

 

[acutename]

I wonder if there was evidence in his vehicle. Just my suspicion.

 

[seasideForest]

I've just made a map with the radius from Mount Clear

View attachment 528344

Red = 15kms
Yellow = 20kms
Blue = 25kms
Pink = 30kms

Lots of hiding places ..............

Individually

15km Radius from Mount Clear
View attachment 528345

20km Radius from Mount Clear

View attachment 528347

25km radius from Mount Clear

View attachment 528349

30km radius from Mount Clear

View attachment 528350

And here is a 60km radius

View attachment 528351

Very dumb comment/question: On the first map the blue circle is within the yellow circle, yet blue=25 km and yellow=20 km. What am I too dumb to understand?

 

[drsleuth]

Very dumb comment/question: On the first map the blue circle is within the yellow circle, yet blue=25 km and yellow=20 km. What am I too dumb to understand?

Sorry I made an error with the colours , they should be the opposite ie Blue = 20km & Yellow = 25kms

 

[australianwebsleuth]

Sorry I made an error with the colours , they should be the opposite ie Blue = 20km & Yellow = 25kms

I put the centre of the circle at Scotsburn because that's where the suspect was living. I still think its likely that the suspect has some geographical knowledge of the dumping site and that's why I am trying to identify areas that have recreational significance to a child/ adolescent growing up in the Ballarat region. There appears to be little published evidence about his upbringing other than where he went to school and he played football.

 

[Trooper]

She was murdered about 14.4 KLMS from Scotsburn, at Mt Clear... takes about 15, 18 minutes to drive depending on conditions, or... that's quite a hike on foot from where he was sharing the house sitting job with the girlfriend and her horses...

That area . Mt Clear, where Commander Patten said she was killed, at around 8am that morning would logically be the centre of the radius.

Hard to believe he would carry her dead body, a most awkward load, much more than a living body, 14.4 klms back to Scotsburn.. or.. he had to get back to Scotsburn and get his car, or, ..he had his car, but where was he coming from and where was he going to when he interrupted his schedule to murder a woman jogging thru the forest. .. what was he doing at Mt Clear? at that time of the morning? the element of distance is crucial here, not forgetting high temps and people out in the only coolish part of the day... .

He had no idea of how long he had to clear up all the evidence of his murder. For all he knew, she may have had folks running behind her, pacing with her, and she got ahead of them.... He would have had no idea of how long till the alarm started on Mrs.Murphy, and we don't know how long his alarm was set for, where he was expected to be, spruce and jolly for a Sunday outing... ..

 

[drsleuth]

She was murdered about 14.4 KLMS from Scotsburn, at Mt Clear... takes about 15, 18 minutes to drive depending on conditions, or... that's quite a hike on foot from where he was sharing the house sitting job with the girlfriend and her horses...

That area . Mt Clear, where Commander Patten said she was killed, at around 8am that morning would logically be the centre of the radius.

Hard to believe he would carry her dead body, a most awkward load, much more than a living body, 14.4 klms back to Scotsburn.. or.. he had to get back to Scotsburn and get his car, or, ..he had his car, but where was he coming from and where was he going to when he interrupted his schedule to murder a woman jogging thru the forest. .. what was he doing at Mt Clear? at that time of the morning? the element of distance is crucial here, not forgetting high temps and people out in the only coolish part of the day... .

He had no idea of how long he had to clear up all the evidence of his murder. For all he knew, she may have had folks running behind her, pacing with her, and she got ahead of them.... He would have had no idea of how long till the alarm started on Mrs.Murphy, and we don't know how long his alarm was set for, where he was expected to be, spruce and jolly for a Sunday outing... ..

That's why I put the Mount Clear as the centre. That is where police are saying she was allegedly murdered & hence removed from. It made sense to me

 

[Trooper]

That's why I put the Mount Clear as the centre. That is where police are saying she was allegedly murdered & hence removed from. It made sense to me

I can't see any other logical position . VICPOL have not gone back on that claim, either the perpetrator, or the victim, or the time, or the location. Mt Clear, Stephenson, Mrs Murphy, Sunday morning 8am.... He had not been living in the house at Scotsburn, ( a house his girlfriend was house sitting for a friend, and Stephenson joined her there, he never actually had any long term association with it..) for very long, I think he stayed there a matter of a couple of weeks, if that....

 

[australianwebsleuth]

She was murdered about 14.4 KLMS from Scotsburn, at Mt Clear... takes about 15, 18 minutes to drive depending on conditions, or... that's quite a hike on foot from where he was sharing the house sitting job with the girlfriend and her horses...

That area . Mt Clear, where Commander Patten said she was killed, at around 8am that morning would logically be the centre of the radius.

Hard to believe he would carry her dead body, a most awkward load, much more than a living body, 14.4 klms back to Scotsburn.. or.. he had to get back to Scotsburn and get his car, or, ..he had his car, but where was he coming from and where was he going to when he interrupted his schedule to murder a woman jogging thru the forest. .. what was he doing at Mt Clear? at that time of the morning? the element of distance is crucial here, not forgetting high temps and people out in the only coolish part of the day... .

He had no idea of how long he had to clear up all the evidence of his murder. For all he knew, she may have had folks running behind her, pacing with her, and she got ahead of them.... He would have had no idea of how long till the alarm started on Mrs.Murphy, and we don't know how long his alarm was set for, where he was expected to be, spruce and jolly for a Sunday outing... ..

People own motor vehicles these days, yet you bring up hiking 14. km. Unsure why you would say this at all. Did he have a motor vehicle? I doubt he carried the body more than 50 to 100m.

 

[Trooper]

People own motor vehicles these days, yet you bring up hiking 14. km. Unsure why you would say this at all. Did he have a motor vehicle? I doubt he carried the body more than 50 to 100m.

As I stated there, with the time it takes to DRIVE from Scotsburn to Mt Clear, and the distance to DRIVE between Scotsburn and Mt Clear, I just don't think I was partisan to the idea of hiking more than driving. Merely, to point out the distance /time factor. He had a ute, indeed he did, and it would be a natural progression to assume he was driving that morning, but hey, no point in cutting out the possibility that he was not driving the whole way.

Even though people have been driving for over a century now, believe it or not, some people do hike off every now and then, go off piste, etc..

Maybe he got out and walked for a while.. why, I don't know, people do these things.. You don't know that he did not. Maybe his starting point was neither Scotsburn NOR Mt Clear.. we don't know.

We do know that it was not a hit and run event, that he 'attacked' her, so if he was in a car, he must have got out of the car to 'attack ' her, he did not hit her with the car and drive away. The Police Commander was very clear and concise about that particular perspective. So at some point, he was hiking. SO that's why I bring up hiking. He was on foot at some stage of this murder.

We don't know where he started his murderous journey from that morning, from his parents home, from the girlfriends house, from a tree house in the forest, even from all the way back into Ballarat. Or from where this birthday party was... We don't know.

But the crime began at Mt Clear. No where else. That's where Mr Stephenson, and Mrs Murphy intercepted , entirely fortuitously, as far as is known, why, no one knows, what made him kill her, no one knows, they did not know each other, according to police, before that one and only encounter, where only one walks away alive. From Mt Clear.

 

[australianwebsleuth]

I can't see any other logical position . VICPOL have not gone back on that claim, either the perpetrator, or the victim, or the time, or the location. Mt Clear, Stephenson, Mrs Murphy, Sunday morning 8am.... He had not been living in the house at Scotsburn, ( a house his girlfriend was house sitting for a friend, and Stephenson joined her there, he never actually had any long term association with it..) for very long, I think he stayed there a matter of a couple of weeks, if that....

Sorry the only published information I can find says he lived at Scotsburn and his Family home is at Mount Clear. There is no doubt he visited his family home.

Are you saying it is a fact that he was not living at Scotsburn on the 4th February? Lets be clear is it a fact or a rumour?

We have already seen inaccurate facts around the search at Mount Black and Brown on the 6th February which had nothing to do with the POC arrest.

You don't think the address of the accused is a logical position? There are actually lots of published papers measuring locations of body dump sites in relation to where the offender is living. That is the point of the thread.

 

[Trooper]

Sorry the only published information I can find says he lived at Scotsburn and his Family home is at Mount Clear. There is no doubt he visited his family home.

Are you saying it is a fact that he was not living at Scotsburn on the 4th February? Lets be clear is it a fact or a rumour?

We have already seen inaccurate facts around the search at Mount Black and Brown on the 6th February which had nothing to do with the POC arrest.

You don't think the address of the accused is a logical position? There are actually lots of published papers measuring locations of body dump sites in relation to where the offender is living. That is the point of the thread.

what thread ? this thread, which we are both posting in, is about a murder. It is not solely confined to body dump sites. Why is there 'no doubt ' that he visited the family home? his parents have not said this. He has not said this.. VICPOL have not said that.

I did not say he was not living at Scotsburn in Feb, I said he had not been living there for very long. A matter of weeks, while the owner of the house sought a buyer. They were house sitting, it was not their registered residence. Please read posts carefully, it saves time in re hashing stuff.

They had no lease on the property, they could have been booted out as soon as a buyer turned up. She had been there for a few months, but not him. He was only recently staying there, on her say so, not on any grounds of residential security.. So no. I don't think that particular address had a lot of significance in the hiding of the body. No doubts in my mind a lot of his fantasy planning went on there, which would have wherever he was living, rationally..

 

[australianwebsleuth]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-victoria/fresh-search-underway-for-body-of-samantha-murphy/news-story/daf8a2bab1ab95ae22b2c6113d995505?amp

Paraphrased:

This article also says that the dam area was of interest to the police due to it's proximity to a nearby phone tower, the last which Mrs Murphy’s phone pinged off.

Police had also searched that stretch of road many times, but the water levels in the dam had dropped recently.

Also property owners were told approx 1 week before that the police could be searching the area again.

The dam is 5km south of where SM's phone last pinged a moible phone tower about 5pm & 10km south of SM's home. It is 7km from where PS was arrested.

The telephone is 5 km from the phone tower. They would have been able to fairly accurately ping it even if it was turned off and above water. Error is usually in the metre range . Unsure why they searched that road, maybe they had data on PS driving and stopping along there.. The SM phone would be undetectable under water.

Interestingly PS arrest location is exactly the same distance from the phone tower which is the one in Ballarat bird world. Obviously triangulation from other towers would more precisely give its location.

The 7km is by road not direct distance. Again PS arrest direct distance is also 5 km from phone. They form an equilateral triangle.

 

[Angeline]

Is it possible police went with a murder charge, knowing it could get downgraded? I thought it was a common practice, to go for the most severe charge.

When does the trial start?