Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #12

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Personally I don't think she's in a mine shaft. There are lots of people who go hunting for new ones to explore. To know a shaft that no one will ever enter or look in is unlikely or really gambling.

Getting a bit of a feeling that after all these searches and nothing to show for it that whatever phone data, information etc they have, may not find her. Perhaps she has been moved from that area or she was never there. Perhaps, and I'm getting increasingly drawn to the theory that someone else did hide her and perhaps left no digital trace or anything the police know about.

It's smelling of something bigger that just PS. I won't speculate but potentially the true story of all this would make one hell of a movie.
I agree with you. My thoughts, I think it's bigger and complicated. Likewise, I think Samantha was originally in the area, but has since been moved right out of the place, or she has been disposed of with other means after the fact quickly, so her body is not found
 
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Personally I don't think she's in a mine shaft. There are lots of people who go hunting for new ones to explore. To know a shaft that no one will ever enter or look in is unlikely or really gambling.

Getting a bit of a feeling that after all these searches and nothing to show for it that whatever phone data, information etc they have, may not find her. Perhaps she has been moved from that area or she was never there. Perhaps, and I'm getting increasingly drawn to the theory that someone else did hide her and perhaps left no digital trace or anything the police know about.

It's smelling of something bigger that just PS. I won't speculate but potentially the true story of all this would make one hell of a movie.
This area is his own backyard,.. he knows it as well as anyone knows their backyard,

He has lived there all his life.

I keep in mind that abandoned mines are extremely dangerous to him, and him loaded down with an inert dead body of a fully grown woman , trying to get a foothold, shifting around at the entrance to a crumbling mine is about as dangerous a game as anyone can play. Bodies dont just slip down mines by themselves, he would have had to work up a hell of a sweat that hot morning to play out this scenario....

These mines are abandoned for the reason that they are no good to enter anymore, the entrance has collapsed, the tunnel has collapsed, it's all a rocky crumbling dangerous unmapped, unknown, unregistered hole in the ground, how deep no one knows, it could be 1/2 metre, or 30 metres... it could be full of red bellied browns, cranky at being disturbed....
 
I agree with you. My thoughts, I think it's bigger and complicated. Likewise, I think Samantha was originally in the area, but has since been moved right out of the place. It was made sure her body won't be found
Yet indifferent to the disposal of the phone which was not damaged or disguised or dismantled or destroyed. Dam water levels fluctuate and locals would know that, as they would the chance of an intact phone wallet (with phone & ID cards) becoming exposed in time.
PS allegedly had a month to work on the disposals. Half of that was whilst reportedly under surveillance. So potentially he had 2 weeks of being free range.
There is also a ton of cctv from that month which would be irrelevant if he wasn’t featured in some way. Maybe his car travelled the Buninyong-Mt Mercer route a lot. Time will tell.
 
Personally I don't think she's in a mine shaft. There are lots of people who go hunting for new ones to explore. To know a shaft that no one will ever enter or look in is unlikely or really gambling.

Getting a bit of a feeling that after all these searches and nothing to show for it that whatever phone data, information etc they have, may not find her. Perhaps she has been moved from that area or she was never there. Perhaps, and I'm getting increasingly drawn to the theory that someone else did hide her and perhaps left no digital trace or anything the police know about.

It's smelling of something bigger that just PS. I won't speculate but potentially the true story of all this would make one hell of a movie.

Remember the detailed CCTV that the police had of Borce Ristevski, travelling away to dump Karen? And his phone and her phone pinged together along the way.

The police still couldn't find Karen, as hard as they tried. But a bushwalker did, 8 months later. She wasn't even particularly well hidden, or very far off a walking track.

They need to know the precise area in which the remains are located. Not the precise spot, but the precise area. Otherwise the remains can be easily missed/not found.

I posted before, Enfield State Park - if Sam is in there - is bigger than 2,200 MCGs. (Melbourne Cricket Grounds, for those who are not familiar with Aussie acronyms.) And it is heavily wooded.
 
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Hmmm.... :rolleyes:

"Criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro
believes police are remaining overly tight-lipped for one reason –
they think someone else is involved.

Mr Watson-Munro told he believes another person was involved in the disposal of her phone at the dam,
as it was in good condition when it was found.


'Of all the dams in that district
on all the farms in that district
they happen to find it there,
and as I understand it,
pretty well preserved',
he said.

'Clearly,
this raises the likelihood of third-party involvement because by then the accused was in custody'.

The psychologist said police were likely withholding information in hopes of 'shaking' someone down.

'I suspect someone took the phone there
and police have intelligence on that.

Leaking or providing developments to the public is inevitably strategic',
he said."

 
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Hmmm.... :rolleyes:

"Criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro
believes police are remaining overly tight-lipped for one reason –
they think someone else is involved.

Mr Watson-Munro told he believes another person was involved in the disposal of her phone at the dam,
as it was in good condition when it was found.


'Of all the dams in that district
on all the farms in that district
they happen to find it there,
and as I understand it,
pretty well preserved',
he said.

'Clearly,
this raises the likelihood of third-party involvement because by then the accused was in custody'.

The psychologist said police were likely withholding information in hopes of 'shaking' someone down.

'I suspect someone took the phone there
and police have intelligence on that.

Leaking or providing developments to the public is inevitably strategic',
he said."

Yep ! We think the same. But we have to wait...
 
And I think it’s a fair bet that she’s in a mine shaft. The area is littered with them; I can’t imagine that anyone who knew the area well would opt to ‘dig a hole’, when thousands of them have previously been dug & lie waiting.
Shortened by me. Does anyone have any info on exactly how far away the cadaver dogs are able to pinpoint where a body may be, as far as distance above and below ground goes? I really know nothing about these dogs, does anyone have any knowledge they'd like to share? (Yes, I really should google)
 
Shortened by me. Does anyone have any info on exactly how far away the cadaver dogs are able to pinpoint where a body may be, as far as distance above and below ground goes? I really know nothing about these dogs, does anyone have any knowledge they'd like to share? (Yes, I really should google)
Wow

“…the scent of human decay which begins immediately after death and continues for hundreds of years after the person is gone.”

“Finding the source of the scent takes time though as the scent spreads. The scent will disperse with the wind, what we call the cone, the further and further it goes, the more the scent will spread out, so the cone gets larger and larger. Dogs find that cone and hone in on the origin and the highest concentration of the scent, working out problems as scent also gets caught in shrubs, obstacles, and even water.”

 
Wow

“…the scent of human decay which begins immediately after death and continues for hundreds of years after the person is gone.”

“Finding the source of the scent takes time though as the scent spreads. The scent will disperse with the wind, what we call the cone, the further and further it goes, the more the scent will spread out, so the cone gets larger and larger. Dogs find that cone and hone in on the origin and the highest concentration of the scent, working out problems as scent also gets caught in shrubs, obstacles, and even water.”

Thanks for that. They are amazing creatures, and I can't even begin to imagine the intricate work done in the beginning to create a dog capable of this. It seems so far that the dogs have not been able to find a scent of any kind that's relevant.
 
Hmmm.... :rolleyes:

"Criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro
believes police are remaining overly tight-lipped for one reason –
they think someone else is involved.

Mr Watson-Munro told he believes another person was involved in the disposal of her phone at the dam,
as it was in good condition when it was found.


'Of all the dams in that district
on all the farms in that district
they happen to find it there,
and as I understand it,
pretty well preserved',
he said.

'Clearly,
this raises the likelihood of third-party involvement because by then the accused was in custody'.

The psychologist said police were likely withholding information in hopes of 'shaking' someone down.

'I suspect someone took the phone there
and police have intelligence on that.

Leaking or providing developments to the public is inevitably strategic',
he said."


'Of all the dams in that district on all the farms in that district they happen to find it there, and as I understand it, pretty well preserved', he said.

Where did Mr Tim Watson-Munro think the police would find the phone? Does he have a preconceived notion?
(Google will tell you more about him.)

Does he think that someone else dumped the phone there, then tipped the police where it is, but they still needed to take along a technology dog because they wouldn't see it laying there, exposed in the dried mud?
 
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Thanks for that Drsleuth. It seems like, dependent on training, these cadavar dogs could find Samantha down a mine.
From what I’m reading it seems quite possible as they latch on to, and follow the smell of decay which can travel & stick & spread.
In a doco I watched, during the search the cadaver dogs missed the body that was buried beneath them. The body was later dug up, and it had been chopped up in pieces and wrapped in disposable nappies which helped to contain the decay and smell.
So environmental conditions and how the body is arranged or interned would factor into it.
Nevertheless this week, after 2 or 3 (?) days of full on searching for Sam the dogs found nothing? No wafts of anything?
How exasperating to have such a huge search op, which is suggestive of a strong lead, with no result. VicPol must get so frustrated. No wonder they were dancing at the dam.
 
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I'd highly recommend the book No Stone Unturned about the difficulty of uncovering bodies in the wilderness. The main issue is always the size of the area to cover - especially if a body is in a shallow grave or concealed somehow.

Tech does help but is expensive. Short version, a manager being asked to authorise 5 or 6 figure expenditures on new searches is not going to do so without good intel to justify it. Everything has to come out of a budget somewhere, and big expensive searches which come up empty can look bad.

So while I agree dogs could find the victim, without knowing where to look, at least within a specific grid, is likely to be a shot in the dark.
 
'Of all the dams in that district on all the farms in that district they happen to find it there, and as I understand it, pretty well preserved', he said.

Where did Mr Tim Watson-Munro think the police would find the phone? Does he have a preconceived notion?
(Google will tell you more about him.)

Does he think that someone else dumped the phone there, then tipped the police where it is, but they still needed to take along a technology dog because they wouldn't see it laying there, exposed in the dried mud?

I ignore most of these go to crime experts - most of the time they know nothing about the case in the first place. On a recent and highly publicised drowning case in the UK a some of them engaged in wild and unfounded speculation.
 
Shortened by me. Does anyone have any info on exactly how far away the cadaver dogs are able to pinpoint where a body may be, as far as distance above and below ground goes? I really know nothing about these dogs, does anyone have any knowledge they'd like to share? (Yes, I really should google)
Would love to see solid data on their effectiveness.
 
Would love to see solid data on their effectiveness.

There are a whole bunch of studies out there about it. I googled "effectiveness of cadaver dogs" and got a lot of results. Here are bits from a few I looked at.

In one trial conducted with cadaver dogs (8 dogs and handlers) with known cadaver artifacts buried .... The recovery rate per trial ranged between 55 and 95% and the overall recovery rate in the field trials was 81% .... the recovery rates were found to be reduced when the dogs were introduced to dry old human bones Link

Another study (two dogs) .... Our results revealed that well trained dogs were able to detect human cadaveric blood samples even when very low concentrations of blood were stored in the tubes Link

And another study (someone's thesis) found that handler bias could affect the results in cadaver dog trials .... as the dog may look to its handler for cues, or sense its handlers attitude about whether it was or was not going to find anything and get a reward.
This thesis also said that one cadaver dog can be as good as 20-30 human searchers. Link

About bodies in water ..... "I have seen dogs locate bodies within a metre and they have been quite accurate in depths of about 15 metres of water." Link
 
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