Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #4

[stmarysmead]

A totally theoretical timeline based around what I now know from the dossier and other sources , and trying to avoid getting carried away over imagining.

21st Nov

• "hitchhike to Hospital de Benasque" is extended as she gets the opportunity of a lift further along the trailhead. She gets dropped near Plan D'Estan. Sees there is a shelter there (it's right by the road).

• ascends the Pic ~ 10:30 and is up there and posting to IG at 13:10 - so the ascent has taken around 2- 2.5 hours

• descends at some point down the same path (not sure how long the descent would have taken), checks out Plan D'Estan (if she didn't already before she went up). Maybe decides it's a bit basic/no winter room (I can't seem to find much about it), sees Cabane de la Besurta on the map only 800m away and checks that out and prefers it so stays there (alone and with no phone signal). That shelter is also right by the road.

22nd Nov

• maybe explores, or hangs round the Cabane and starts the ascent around 13:00/13:30

• arrives at the Pic ~ 15:30 as we know

• receives a backlog of messages as she's been without signal all night

• appears, from the messaging, to maybe be hesitating/lingering on the Pic and is "Hoping Refuge Venasque has a winter room." (maybe but not necessarily worrying about it)

• descends to la Port de Venasque and has another think about the winter room or potential lack of, and decides to go back to la Besurta as she knows what facilities it had

ETA: as she stayed at Besurta the night before I would think it would be unlikely for any examination of the shelter to be able to confirm or rule out a second night

Excellent post...this seems like a very plausible scenario.

I wish we knew more about cell service availability across the areas where she might have been. If she left la Besurtas the next day, I wonder how long till she would have been able use her phone.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

A totally theoretical timeline based around what I now know from the dossier and other sources , and trying to avoid getting carried away over imagining.

21st Nov

• "hitchhike to Hospital de Benasque" is extended as she gets the opportunity of a lift further along the trailhead. She gets dropped near Plan D'Estan. Sees there is a shelter there (it's right by the road).

• ascends the Pic ~ 10:30 and is up there and posting to IG at 13:10 - so the ascent has taken around 2- 2.5 hours

• descends at some point down the same path (not sure how long the descent would have taken), checks out Plan D'Estan (if she didn't already before she went up). Maybe decides it's a bit basic/no winter room (I can't seem to find much about it), sees Cabane de la Besurta on the map only 800m away and checks that out and prefers it so stays there (alone and with no phone signal). That shelter is also right by the road.

22nd Nov

• maybe explores, or hangs round the Cabane and starts the ascent around 13:00/13:30

• arrives at the Pic ~ 15:30 as we know

• receives a backlog of messages as she's been without signal all night

• appears, from the messaging, to maybe be hesitating/lingering on the Pic and is "Hoping Refuge Venasque has a winter room." (maybe but not necessarily worrying about it)

• descends to la Port de Venasque and has another think about the winter room or potential lack of, and decides to go back to la Besurta as she knows what facilities it had

ETA: as she stayed at Besurta the night before I would think it would be unlikely for any examination of the shelter to be able to confirm or rule out a second night

This is what I was thinking too. The only question mark is the 10:30 start and 2.5 hour ascent. It doesn’t look on the map that it would take that long, so I wonder if she looked around (checked out the two refugees at PdE and LB, maybe looked longingly at Maladeta glacier).

What time was it she texted Dan saying she had hitched and was “half way there”? It must have been before she lost signal at the end of the road.

 

[Grouse]

Excellent post...this seems like a very plausible scenario.

I wish we knew more about cell service availability across the areas where she might have been. If she left la Besurtas the next day, I wonder how long till she would have been able use her phone.

I didn't go so far as say it, but my thinking on this potential scenario was heading in the direction of it supporting the third party option (3) in the dossier. A shelter with no phone signal and right by the road ( a road we know was clear of snow because she got the lift along it the day before).

Some of this has probably already been said up thread, I'm a bit late to the party on the lift being specifically to Plan D'Estan - I either forgot that or I missed it in the first place. I had thought they'd dropped her at the hospice for some reason. Also due to the google 360 picture showing the snow hiding the road at Besurtas, the proximity of that road to the shelter didn't stand out in my mind and raise the red flag that it has now.

On cell service I wonder if it is provider dependant?

 

[Grouse]

This is what I was thinking too. The only question mark is the 10:30 start and 2.5 hour ascent. It doesn’t look on the map that it would take that long, so I wonder if she looked around (checked out the two refugees at PdE and LB, maybe looked longingly at Maladeta glacier).

What time was it she texted Dan saying she had hitched and was “half way there”? It must have been before she lost signal at the end of the road.

Ah, well spotted 10:35–“2 hitches so far –halfway!” it says in the dossier. It doesn't tie up with the 10:30 at all does it? I got it from Missing Esther Dingley's secrets, by the last man to see her alive - "There, around 10.30am on Saturday, November 21, she set off up the mountain path from a spot known as Plan de l’Estany.". The original source is the Fail though!

ETA: though if signal was intermittent 10:35 might not be the actual time she sent it, could have been earlier. Bit annoyed that I missed that though, maybe when I've bin a sleuth as long as you ..

 

[RedHaus]

This is what I was thinking too. The only question mark is the 10:30 start and 2.5 hour ascent. It doesn’t look on the map that it would take that long, so I wonder if she looked around (checked out the two refugees at PdE and LB, maybe looked longingly at Maladeta glacier).

What time was it she texted Dan saying she had hitched and was “half way there”? It must have been before she lost signal at the end of the road.

BBM

Answer: 10:35am 21/11 per DC's dossier, ED texted DC to say she was half way there.... [where was there?]

Around 10:30am 21/11 is when Ballarin said he dropped ED at the trail head at the ski area/hotel.

Does something appear off with those time stamps? Maybe not if Ballarin was estimating... so perhaps he dropped ED at more like 10:45...?
[splitting hairs of course!]

 

[Grouse]

BBM

Answer: 10:35am 21/11 per DC's dossier, ED texted DC to say she was half way there.... [where was there?]

Around 10:30am 21/11 is when Ballarin said he dropped ED at the trail head at the ski area/hotel.

Does something appear off with those time stamps? Maybe not if Ballarin was estimating... so perhaps he dropped ED at more like 10:45...?
[splitting hairs of course!]

Think we were composing our posts at the same time

BBM (above and below)

In the DM article it says "Esther, who often took lifts on hiking trips, jumped in and travelled with the 71-year-old and his grandson for five miles, chatting about her plans until they reached the footpath leading to the Pico Salvaguardia, or ‘safeguard peak’. There, around 10.30am on Saturday, November 21, she set off up the mountain path from a spot known as Plan de l’Estany. "

Did you read a different account, or did they just get the Plan de l'Estany bit wrong?

 

[CoverMeCagney]

BBM

Answer: 10:35am 21/11 per DC's dossier, ED texted DC to say she was half way there.... [where was there?]

Around 10:30am 21/11 is when Ballarin said he dropped ED at the trail head at the ski area/hotel.

Does something appear off with those time stamps? Maybe not if Ballarin was estimating... so perhaps he dropped ED at more like 10:45...?
[splitting hairs of course!]

Yes, it would make sense Ballarin dropped her off a few minutes later than she texted Dan, say 10:45 like you suggested.

Did Ballarin say ski area / hotel? I thought he just said PdE which is not that near the hotel, isn’t it a few km up the road?

I need to get the laptop and look at the maps properly, impossible on my phone!

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Arrrgh, posts crossing left right and centre!!

 

[Grouse]

Arrrgh, posts crossing left right and centre!!

LOL - do we need to use the over and out protocol? Over.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

LOL - do we need to use the over and out protocol? Over.

Could get confusing if any of us is called Roger!

 

[Grouse]

Yes, it would make sense Ballarin dropped her off a few minutes later than she texted Dan, say 10:45 like you suggested.

Did Ballarin say ski area / hotel? I thought he just said PdE which is not that near the hotel, isn’t it a few km up the road?

I need to get the laptop and look at the maps properly, impossible on my phone!

It's about 3km

 

[Grouse]

Could get confusing if any of us is called Roger!

Well I'm not - are you?

 

[CoverMeCagney]

It's about 3km

Just need @RedHaus to confirm the bit about the ski area / hotel , which I assume is the Llanos del Hospital. I dont recall it being mentioned as a drop off point.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

BBM

Answer: 10:35am 21/11 per DC's dossier, ED texted DC to say she was half way there.... [where was there?]

Around 10:30am 21/11 is when Ballarin said he dropped ED at the trail head at the ski area/hotel.

Does something appear off with those time stamps? Maybe not if Ballarin was estimating... so perhaps he dropped ED at more like 10:45...?
[splitting hairs of course!]

Couldn't she have sent the "two hitches so far" text from within Ballarin's car while he drove?

 

[RedHaus]

Think we were composing our posts at the same time
Did you read a different account, or did they just get the Plan de l'Estany bit wrong?

Snipped for focus

Just need @RedHaus to confirm the bit about the ski area / hotel , which I assume is the Llanos del Hospital. I dont recall it being mentioned as a drop off point.

OK, here is what got me going last night.... I did read, like you did, Grouse, that Ballarin dropped ED off at Plan de l'Estany at ~10:30am 21/11. So I started searching to see what and where that was. I wanted to once and for all figure out where ED started her trek 21/11 and whether it matched up with what she told DC that morning.

What I came up with is:

a) Plan de l'Estany is a trail that goes to the summit trail of pic de Sauvegarde (the other route to get to the col summit trail is from the trail head at La Besurta]

"We will hike to the traditional crossing point to reach Spain, the Port of Vénasque. From here we will climb to reach the Safeguard Peak [pic de Sauvegarde] (2738 m) which offers an exceptional panorama on the Maladeta and Posets massif. We will then descend to the Port of Vévasque and then to the Plan d'Estanys where you will meet the high mountain guide." Ascension de la voie royale de l'Aneto en 4 jours - Kazaden​

b) Plan de l'Estany is located down the road from Llanos del Hospital, a ski area in Banesque (see map).

"Llanos del Hospital - Plan de l'Estany" Wikiloc | Picture of Llanos del Hospital - Plan de l'Estany (1/6)​

​

c) Llanos del Hospital is co-located at the Hotel Hospital de Banesque - so it is a ski resort!.

Hotel Hospital de Benasque y Estación de esquí nórdico Llanos del Hospital​

And since day one I think, or close to it, @otto has stated as a fact that ED started her trek 21/11 at Hotel Hospital de Banesque. And now I think I know why he said that! It also matches with that map we keep referring to in DC's dossier, the one that DC said ED shared with him prior to her starting her trek at 10:08 am 21/11.

And so here is why I came up with this map I drew last night trying to depict ED's route on 21/11, using the map from the DC dossier...



And again, why is this important? IMO, if ED ventured off on a path different than the one planned on 21/11, that could predict her route was unpredictable on 22/11.

All JMO, but hoping it answers the questions I seem to have created from my post last night... just supplying the logic steps I took to get to my thinking.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

But aren’t Plan d’Estan and La Besurta nearer the trailhead than the Hosp is? I don’t get why she’d double back along the road to start from there, when she’d already driven past it to get where she wanted. What am I missing?

 

[Grouse]

That's great, thanks RedHaus. I get it now, it's the trail not just the name of a refuge. Looking on google maps now I notice other references such as Ibones de Plan d'Estan Alto about 1/2km NW of the refuge.

TBH in terms of my scenario above it doesn't really affect the part about what ED may have done on 22nd, which is the part I'm most concerned about but yes nice to get it clear.

 

[RickshawFan]

They said they were using a Lycamoible SIM with no fee for receiving calls, and usually a local sim for data - this will be far cheaper than the international sims
How We Keep Our Motorhome Adventure On Budget - Our Strategies to Save Money On The Road | Esther & Dan - Adventuring Together - Life, Love, Health & Travel

I likewise use local SIMS and not international.
I see from Lycamobile's site, if ED was on a plan, she might not have had much data, 'cos it would be expensive. If she's on pay-as-you-go, Pay As You Go V Pay Monthly - Lycamobile

 

[RickshawFan]

But aren’t Plan d’Estan and La Besurta nearer the trailhead than the Hosp is? I don’t get why she’d double back along the road to start from there, when she’d already driven past it to get where she wanted. What am I missing?

She coulda just gone down the wrong trail by mistake?

 

[Grouse]

But aren’t Plan d’Estan and La Besurta nearer the trailhead than the Hosp is? I don’t get why she’d double back along the road to start from there, when she’d already driven past it to get where she wanted. What am I missing?

Not sure if this is quite the same as the site of RedHaus's first screenshot but it's similar Llanos del Hospital - Cascada Forau de Aiguallut (Benasque, Huesca) (06-10-2017)

If you follow this link and hover the mouse over the elevation profile bottom right and move right to left it highlights the route above (much like mapping sofware I use to plan walks) which might make it clearer. If you zoom right in on the start of the trial you can see it starts at the Hosp, which makes sense as convenient for those staying at the hotel.

Although it doesn't call it Plan d'Estan on that page it did come from a link that did refer to it by that name so I think it is that trail.