stmarysmead
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A totally theoretical timeline based around what I now know from the dossier and other sources , and trying to avoid getting carried away over imagining.
21st Nov
- "hitchhike to Hospital de Benasque" is extended as she gets the opportunity of a lift further along the trailhead. She gets dropped near Plan D'Estan. Sees there is a shelter there (it's right by the road).
- ascends the Pic ~ 10:30 and is up there and posting to IG at 13:10 - so the ascent has taken around 2- 2.5 hours
22nd Nov
- descends at some point down the same path (not sure how long the descent would have taken), checks out Plan D'Estan (if she didn't already before she went up). Maybe decides it's a bit basic/no winter room (I can't seem to find much about it), sees Cabane de la Besurta on the map only 800m away and checks that out and prefers it so stays there (alone and with no phone signal). That shelter is also right by the road.
- maybe explores, or hangs round the Cabane and starts the ascent around 13:00/13:30
- arrives at the Pic ~ 15:30 as we know
- receives a backlog of messages as she's been without signal all night
- appears, from the messaging, to maybe be hesitating/lingering on the Pic and is "Hoping Refuge Venasque has a winter room." (maybe but not necessarily worrying about it)
ETA: as she stayed at Besurta the night before I would think it would be unlikely for any examination of the shelter to be able to confirm or rule out a second night
- descends to la Port de Venasque and has another think about the winter room or potential lack of, and decides to go back to la Besurta as she knows what facilities it had
Excellent post...this seems like a very plausible scenario.
I wish we knew more about cell service availability across the areas where she might have been. If she left la Besurtas the next day, I wonder how long till she would have been able use her phone.