I'm in agreement with you for a couple of reasons. I posted a couple of days ago that I think the shot came first and heard from some who agree and some who disagree, all making valid points.
While I would LIKE to agree with the ME, I have seen many animals shot and the entrance wound does not bleed much. Yes, close range with a large caliber maybe, but a small caliber, less likely.
What many people are not realizing is just how ineffective a .25 automatic pistol is for what she was using it for. I didn't know earlier that he might have been shot while sitting down. This gives even more weight to the theory that this small caliber--and very lightweight--bullet went in through (maybe) his skull in or near his right eye but lacked the force to exit, thus lodging in his lower left cheek, visible in the x-ray. It never hit anything vital and caused very little damage, mostly to his sinus cavity/palate.
An automatic pistol is usually jammed by what is called "limp wristing". An auto weapon works by using the "kick" of the fired cartridge to force the slide at the top to slam back, opening the chamber and ejecting the spent shell casing and allowing the spring-fed next round to enter the chamber. If the shooter does not keep a firm wrist (common beginner technique), the force is absorbed in the wrist and not passed on to the slide, leaving too small a gap for the spent cartridge to fully eject. The wrist has acted like a shock absorber. Now the spent cartridge is stuck between the slide and the frame, keeping the next round from entering the chamber. Nothing happens until the slide is manually pulled back and the force of the spring pushes the next round up and the spent shell falls out.
She might have realized this after she had mortally wounded Travis with the knife. If she had dropped the gun and used her backup plan, the knife, and later came back to get the gun, then she might have "cleared" the spent casing from the jammed pistol. That would have caused the cartridge to fall onto the floor, and possibly into some pooled blood. In this scenario, you have the shot coming first, but the cartridge coming out AFTER she has already stabbed/slashed him.
Just another theory. I welcome any comments. Enjoying reading all of your posts.