Theories On What Happened to Caylee Part #4

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Which Listed Below Did Caylee Die From?


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A lot of work has been done regarding the tempurature in Orlando and that of the trunk in relation to a decomposing body. I agree with all the conclusions that this data point to. What bothers me is that it is all based on the assumption that Caylee was in the trunk at the time of death or immediately thereafter. If she was killed in the house on the night of the 15th or early am of the 16th, she could have been in the house for as long as 12 hours or more before being placed in the trunk. In this case, the first part of decomposing would have occurred in a much cooler environment than a trunk. Just something else to think about as far as the 2.6 days goes.
 
I misspoke.

I was putting 19th to one side temporarily.
I don't like trying to incorporate the jeep, transfering the body, bagging away from A's back yard.
The actual date is probably the best for most scenarios in regards to manner and time of death.
Tell me again why it could not be that KC was driving around in her own car at least in the earlier part of 19th?

Distilling it down... the crux of it all is that a theory MUST fit the following:

1) A time of death that suits cell pings, computer forensics, surveil video, and statements indicating Casey's whereabouts & actions
2) A bagging and/or disposal opportunity no sooner than ~3 days (ADD) from the t.o.d. selected in (1) above.

To use a couple of examples...

Example A: 3PM 6/16 death by whatever cause => 4PM 6/19 bagging and/or disposal. Bagging and/or disposal is due to both stop the ADD clock. By checking we can find that 3:07PM 6/19 Casey had a 50min period beginning @ 3:07PM when she had gone, almost spontaneously it seems, from Tony's Apt. to near JBPark before showing up @ Tony's Apt. again @ 3:57PM on the computer. So, IMHO, this works...with allowing a small% error in the ADD #...just fill in your own theory re: cause of death and see if it works for you. This example means the disposal on Suburban Dr. had to occur sometime after 6/19 3:57PM, which could've easily been any number of times, but, most likely 6/19 between 5:45-9PM when Casey's cell appears to be off for 3.3 hours (very unusual for her @ this time of day) OR in between 1:30-2:18PM 6/20 immediately before or after Casey backs into G&C's garage for the last time. Either are very doable, IMHO.

Example B: 7:20PM 6/16 death by whatever cause => 7:30PM 6/19 bagging and/or disposal. Bagging and/or disposal is due to both stop the ADD clock. By checking we can find that 6/19 between 5:45-9PM Casey's cell appears to be off for 3.3 hours (very unusual for her @ this time of day) OR in between 1:30-2:18PM 6/20 immediately before or after Casey backs into G&C's garage for the last time. Either are very doable, IMHO.​

So....in these two examples you can see how the information triangulates. We then, are left to pick a cause of death that suits the activities described around the time of the assumed death, and, any other evidence that has surfaced that may relate to the cause of death.

Personally, I've moved to Example B - for the time being - owing to the discovery of a "flurry" of calls behavior on 6/9 that suggests to me that these flurries are evidence of Casey wanting to drop Caylee w/ Cindy. The flurries on 6/16 occur 4:10-4:14PM and again @ 6:30, concluded with a 7:06PM 1.4min call w/ Cindy (perhaps a Cindy-sayin'-NFW call) and 2 attempts to reach Amy @ 7:20PM. The balance of phone activity for Casey that evening are incoming events that did not require or indicate her interacting w/ the phone. This is consistent w/ her watching a couple of movies (est. 3hrs total) that evening w/ Tony.

IOW...if you're working a theory, your bagging and/or disposal time & date is set by your t.o.d. and forensic ADD. If you pick a t.o.d. that translates to a bagging and/or disposal date & time when Casey was engaged in an activity that makes this improbable (e.g. WARNING...silly example...Casey couldn't bag and/or dispose @ a date/time when she was witnessed by several partyin' @ Fusian 6/20 10PM, hence, 6/17 10PM would be a very improbable t.o.d. regardless of cause) - then, the theory is improbable...try again.

Hope that helps.
 
I have been thinking the tape was applied after death, but now I am thinking before death. I have always said if the tape was used as a gag before Caylee died, then her hands were taped as well or tied.

I wonder if she buried Caylee, rather hastily, out back by their pool until she figured out what to do with her. She remained there in the dirt for a few days. Maybe she drowned in the pool. Maybe she suffocated in the car. IDK. But maybe, just maybe, Casey began to panic & did a quick bury out back until she could move her. When a body dies, it becomes rigid rather quickly. Maybe that's the reason for the Duct tape. Maybe when Casey dug up Caylee, her mouth was open and still couldn't be pushed closed from rigor mortis, so of course that would be the first place maggots would feed off of. Either way, drowning or suffocating in a hot car, wouldn't Caylee have died with her mouth open trying to gasp for oxygen? It only takes a second for a fly to lay it's eggs. Maybe when Casey dug her up, she was sickened by the amount of maggots in Caylee's mouth (as well as other orifices of her little innocent body), so she placed duct tape over it when she realized she couldn't fight the maggots. Maybe that's the reason for the heart sticker on the Duct tape. Then maybe Casey left for a few more days, only to return when GA wasn't home, to dig up her daughter and place her elsewhere. Remember, the neighbor said Casey only borrowed the shovel for a short amount of time...on the same day her car was backed into the garage. Maybe this was to retrieve her daughter from the backyard. It still makes me wonder why the new landscaping was done during the time Caylee went missing. There's still not enough concrete evidence for me to believe GA & CA helped Casey dispose of her daughter, but I still wonder about their actions thus far. Bond, JWG, Hercule - great posts, as usual! Thanks to the many intelligent posters that brought me out of lurkdom!:heart:
 
A lot of work has been done regarding the tempurature in Orlando and that of the trunk in relation to a decomposing body. I agree with all the conclusions that this data point to. What bothers me is that it is all based on the assumption that Caylee was in the trunk at the time of death or immediately thereafter. If she was killed in the house on the night of the 15th or early am of the 16th, she could have been in the house for as long as 12 hours or more before being placed in the trunk. In this case, the first part of decomposing would have occurred in a much cooler environment than a trunk. Just something else to think about as far as the 2.6 days goes.

Excellent observation, Marina2. I actually built into the spreadsheet the ability to mathematically take the body in & out of the trunk on different dates & times to observe that effect.

In short, if the body comes out of the trunk it does slow the ADD by a relatively small amount owing to the cooler ambient vs. trunk temperature. The example I just ran for you:

T.O.D. 6/16 midnight
Trunk 6/16 1PM
Yields 6/19 2:40AM for ADD to reach target. Soooo...extends beyond the nominal 3 days by 1hr & 40mins.

Hope that helps.
 
I might be off base or not knowing what I am talking about, with that said... Do you think that KC might have used that abandoned house that the PI was filming to keep her daughter there? There must be some relevanced to that house? How far is it from where the A's live and where Caylee was found?

I wonder about the house too, that a very interesting theory. One I am going to sleep on.
 
Excellent observation, Marina2. I actually built into the spreadsheet the ability to mathematically take the body in & out of the trunk on different dates & times to observe that effect.

In short, if the body comes out of the trunk it does slow the ADD by a relatively small amount owing to the cooler ambient vs. trunk temperature. The example I just ran for you:

T.O.D. 6/16 midnight
Trunk 6/16 1PM
Yields 6/19 2:40AM for ADD to reach target. Soooo...extends beyond the nominal 3 days by 1hr & 40mins.

Hope that helps.

Wow BJB, I haven't had to build a spreadsheet like this in a few years and it had nothing to do with murder. That's a lot of work and no one told me how great it was (only bosses who wanted to know exactly where there money was). Yours is to say at the least very well thought out. Mine was made to know where money was. Great job with the fine tuning. Thanks! My guess was the 15th around midnight or so she died with the disposal date of the 18th. Novice, I know. Go BJB.
 
tx Dot, I read very early on that it was a butter knife.

That's what I remembered too, but some were talking about using it on the duct tape.....I don't think that would work too,good....:confused:
 
Maybe from evidence they gathered with the body? What follows is hypothetical: Even if evidence of chloroform, tape and cloth was found at the scene, experts would still not be able to determine it was the cause of death. The manner in which these were applied/ or never removed might tell a clearer story of intent. JMO.

One thing I keep thinking about is that there is no way to put duct tape around the mouth of a 2 or 3 year old without covering the nose. It is too wide. Maybe that in itself is enough to show intent???
 
Haven't read all the theories here so forgive me if this has already been mentioned.I believe that the TOD was the 16th.I believe KC killed Caylee in a rage of some sort,either because Caylee told on KC,and thus the fight on the 15th,or just simply to spite CA.Manner of death homicide per ME,so I believe they have evidence to support this.I believe the dogs hit in the back yard due to hosing off of "stuff" from the car,and emptying of buckets of water,from cleaning the car. I could not decide which method in the poll was used,if any of these,but I do believe it was a violent,horrible ,revengeful death,and I believe LE knows what it was. I believe KC acted alone.
 
Excellent observation, Marina2. I actually built into the spreadsheet the ability to mathematically take the body in & out of the trunk on different dates & times to observe that effect.

In short, if the body comes out of the trunk it does slow the ADD by a relatively small amount owing to the cooler ambient vs. trunk temperature. The example I just ran for you:

T.O.D. 6/16 midnight
Trunk 6/16 1PM
Yields 6/19 2:40AM for ADD to reach target. Soooo...extends beyond the nominal 3 days by 1hr & 40mins.

Hope that helps.
That means that the very rough "3days" as a quick calculation aid would only increase and not decrease. I don't think we need to consider a situation where the body was removed from the trunk and placed in a warmer environment, say a furnace room or whatever.

I follow your examples fit data as you say, but both require bagging at least in public and presumably by manoevering the body in the trunk. I guess the example involving the Park might have secluded spots, but still public area with danger of being seen.
 
Wonder if LE has taken the dogs there to sniff to see if she was ever in the house there?

I never gave iot a thought but heck yes she coulda gone there to hang out till they all left the house ?
And called to see if anybody was there and all?
And in her mind maybe she wanted that house and made up all the stuff/Wonder if the owners left any paperwork in it ? that Kc may have found and then started looking up the name and found ZFG?
So yes a connection to this house is a sure thing as far as
where she came up with the surname ha?Good idea!

My personal belief about the empty Gonzalez house is this.

DC was looking for the body with directions coming over the phone from "somebody". He had been digging in the Gonzalez house previously looking for a suitable place to move the body so if it was found it would be found in a house that had a connection to someone named Gonzalez. If not all the better. :cow:

I wonder if she buried Caylee, rather hastily, out back by their pool until she figured out what to do with her. She remained there in the dirt for a few days. Maybe she drowned in the pool and that's why her bathing suit was found with her. Maybe she suffocated in the car. IDK. But maybe, just maybe, Casey began to panic & did a quick bury out back until she could move her. When a body dies, it becomes rigid rather quickly. Maybe that's the reason for the Duct tape. Maybe when Casey dug up Caylee, her mouth was open and still couldn't be pushed closed from rigor mortis, so of course that would be the first place maggots would feed off of. Either way, drowning or suffocating in a hot car, wouldn't Caylee have died with her mouth open trying to gasp for oxygen? It only takes a second for a fly to lay it's eggs. Maybe when Casey dug her up, she was sickened by the amount of maggots in Caylee's mouth (as well as other orifices of her little innocent body), so she placed duct tape over it when she realized she couldn't fight the maggots. Maybe that's the reason for the heart sticker on the Duct tape. Then maybe Casey left for a few more days, only to return when GA wasn't home, to dig up her daughter and place her elsewhere. Remember, the neighbor said Casey only borrowed the shovel for a short amount of time...on the same day her car was backed into the garage. Maybe this was to retrieve her daughter from the backyard. It still makes me wonder why the new landscaping was done during the time Caylee went missing. There's still not enough concrete evidence for me to believe GA & CA helped Casey dispose of her daughter, but I still wonder about their actions thus far. Bond, JWG, Hercule - great posts, as usual! Thanks to the many intelligent posters that brought me out of lurkdom!:heart:

IIRC, her bathing suit was not found with her.
 
IIRC, her bathing suit was not found with her.

OMGosh, you're right! Very sorry...I thought part of a swimsuit of sorts was found among her remains. I'll go back and edit. I just searched the doc dump and see you're correct. I must have heard it from my friend that lives there. Since it's not a proven fact, I'll have to erase that thought. Thanks:)
 
My personal belief about the empty Gonzalez house is this.

DC was looking for the body with directions coming over the phone from "somebody". He had been digging in the Gonzalez house previously looking for a suitable place to move the body so if it was found it would be found in a house that had a connection to someone named Gonzalez. If not all the better. :cow:



IIRC, her bathing suit was not found with her.
I think you are exactly right about the DC wanting to move the body to that house!!!! What has ever happened to the investigation of him?
 
Here is yet another theory of mine, pulling bits and pieces out of old ones and sprinkling in some new details (discarding old, stale details that did not work, of course).

June 16

George sees KC and Caylee leave just before 1:00PM. Caylee is alive and walking under her own power, IMHO. There are three possible places they go: Kristina's, the elementary school playground, or Lee's. I am guessing Lee's - he's at work.

KC tries to get Caylee to go down for her nap, but she isn't ready. Tony calls and they talk for nearly 15 minutes. After the call KC still can't get Caylee to go to sleep, so she gets frustrated and medicates her with children's cold medicine, maybe Benedryl. KC has been doing this now periodically for nearly a month since Caylee had her cold in mid-May.

Caylee konks out around 1:40, and KC can finally have some peace. She dials up Amy and launches into a 36 minute call with her. They discuss boys, partying, gossip...Amy mentions some stuff on Facebook and MySpace, but KC is not on a computer. KC has to see this stuff, so she throws her stuff back into the car, puts a sleeping Caylee in the car seat, and drives back to the Anthony's - never getting of the phone. They arrive right around 2:00 with George safely gone.

KC grabs a couple things and takes them in, and intends to return immediately for Caylee...but something Amy says causes her to go fire up the computer and start surfing. More gossip, laughs, chit-chat. Call ends around 2:15.

At this point she is into it. She's surfing her friend's Facebook and MySpace pages, catching up on what they are up to, posting on their wall, commenting on photos, checks out the club events for the coming weekend, reads the latest celebrity gossip, maybe even fires up an internet chat with a friend.

Jesse calls around 2:53 and they talk about KC's problems at home, her moving out...a deep conversation that is interrupted by a call from George just after 3:00. He's spoken with Cindy, and they are in agreement: No staying overnight with the nanny. Both she and Caylee need to come home no matter how late KC's event runs.

Caylee...

She's just spent the last hour in the car with temps just above 90 outside. KC unstraps her from the car seat and brings her in, hoping to revive her, but it is already pretty obvious. She's been dead for more than a few minutes. The A/C never really cooled the car off during the short drive over from Lee's, and it did not take long for the car to go above 120 F once it was turned off. KC's mom was right - she's an unfit mother.

KC paces around not knowing what to do. The narcissist inside knows she needs to leave, and with Caylee. She calls Tony and tells him she is free for the evening...can she come over for the night? Tony readily agrees.

KC grabs the laundry bag and puts Caylee in it. She carries this to the car and puts it in the trunk. She packs for herself a couple of items, not really planning ahead beyond the coming eveing. Then she drives up to Tony's.

June 17

KC drives to her parent's home and backs into the garage. She opens the trunk and contemplates what to do next. Nothing really comes to mind. She tries moving the body and notices how stiff it is - no longer a cuddly girl. She is surprised at this and closes the trunk, goes inside to get more clothing for another night at Tony's, and leaves.

June 18

A return trip to the Anthony home, this time with a plan of what to do with Caylee: she will bury her in the yard. Unfortunately, she cannot get into the shed, so like any forward-thinker out there who wants to keep tracks covered, she goes to the neighbor and asks to borrow a shovel. :rolleyes: She moves the body to the back yard near a possible grave site. Digging even a shallow grave soon proves to be a daunting task, so KC rinses the shovel and returns it to the neighbor. Caylee goes back into the trunk and they return to Tony's.

June 19

She and Tony plan to meet with Matt C. late in the afternoon to look at an apartment. Prior to that meeting KC is cleaning Tony's apartment and around 3:00PM decides to take the garbage out on her way to Target or someplace like that. She opens the trunk and as she tosses the bag in she notices a stain on the liner under Caylee's laundry bag, and an unpleasant odor. She opens the bag to see where the stain is coming from and sees that fluid has been leaking from Caylee's mouth. Unbeknownst to KC, the movement of the body on the previous day accellerated the process of causing fluids to leak from the body.

This discovery surprises and horrifies Casey. Her first thought is to stop the fluid from coming out of Caylee's mouth. She recalls having Amy's duct tape in her car and pulls the roll out. From past experience she knows she cannot tear it well with her hands, so she runs inside and grabs a kitchen knife from Tony's. She cuts a strip of tape and wraps it around Caylee's head to stop the flow. After doing this she tosses the tape and knife into the car. Note...I am not saying pings near JBP indicate she did the taping there. I think this was simple - the parking lot is quiet this time of day. No need to drive out of the way for this.

Note that taping the mouth fixes the decomp date of the stain as 3 days after death. Also note that the bag from Tony's is the one eventually found at the tow yard. KC was so freaked by the fluids that she never went to the dumpster.

June 20

KC knows she needs to get the body out of the trunk, but the bag and trunk liner are soaked. She drives back to the grandparent's and grabs a trash bag, in which she places the laundry bag. On some level she knows this is not "right"...so she gets Caylee's Pooh blankie and puts that in the bag. Maybe a favorite toy horse she has clutched recently is spotted and she grabs that as well. These are put in the bag with Caylee. KC wants to kiss her daughter goodbye, but cannot bring herself to do so. Instead, she places a heart sticker on her cheek or lips, which are covered by duct tape (the warrant does not say where the tape was).

KC then drives up to Suburban and quickly dumps the body.
 
Bond
Unless KC was at the A's when she bagged the body, why would she drive to the A's to dump it?
High risk of her family and friends seeing her.

The fact that the body was dumped where it was dumped is very compelling evidence in itself that it was bagged up at the A's and dumped as she was leaving at that time or, at a pinch at a later visit to the A's.
 
JWG
You lost me when you assumed merely taping the mouth would stop the ADD clock.
 
JWG
You lost me when you assumed merely taping the mouth would stop the ADD clock.

The "ADD clock" is really the "age" of the fluids in the trunk liner. Anything that prevents leaking fluids from the body to make contact with the trunk liner "stops" the ADD clock.
 
I liked a lot of what Bond put forward yesterday. The likely use of Lee's house etc. I am just trying to avoid transfering the body to another vehicle, or trying to play amateur mortician on the side of the road.
I think that the dump site was "chosen" solely because it was near where KC was with this problem. She drove there from the A's whatever happened before that.
 
The "ADD clock" is really the "age" of the fluids in the trunk liner. Anything that prevents leaking fluids from the body to make contact with the trunk liner "stops" the ADD clock.
I think fluids would be leaking from a variety of orifices.
 
Here is yet another theory of mine, pulling bits and pieces out of old ones and sprinkling in some new details (discarding old, stale details that did not work, of course).

June 16

George sees KC and Caylee leave just before 1:00PM. Caylee is alive and walking under her own power, IMHO. There are three possible places they go: Kristina's, the elementary school playground, or Lee's. I am guessing Lee's - he's at work.

KC tries to get Caylee to go down for her nap, but she isn't ready. Tony calls and they talk for nearly 15 minutes. After the call KC still can't get Caylee to go to sleep, so she gets frustrated and medicates her with children's cold medicine, maybe Benedryl. KC has been doing this now periodically for nearly a month since Caylee had her cold in mid-May.

Caylee konks out around 1:40, and KC can finally have some peace. She dials up Amy and launches into a 36 minute call with her. They discuss boys, partying, gossip...Amy mentions some stuff on Facebook and MySpace, but KC is not on a computer. KC has to see this stuff, so she throws her stuff back into the car, puts a sleeping Caylee in the car seat, and drives back to the Anthony's - never getting of the phone. They arrive right around 2:00 with George safely gone.

KC grabs a couple things and takes them in, and intends to return immediately for Caylee...but something Amy says causes her to go fire up the computer and start surfing. More gossip, laughs, chit-chat. Call ends around 2:15.

At this point she is into it. She's surfing her friend's Facebook and MySpace pages, catching up on what they are up to, posting on their wall, commenting on photos, checks out the club events for the coming weekend, reads the latest celebrity gossip, maybe even fires up an internet chat with a friend.

Jesse calls around 2:53 and they talk about KC's problems at home, her moving out...a deep conversation that is interrupted by a call from George just after 3:00. He's spoken with Cindy, and they are in agreement: No staying overnight with the nanny. Both she and Caylee need to come home no matter how late KC's event runs.

Caylee...

She's just spent the last hour in the car with temps just above 90 outside. KC unstraps her from the car seat and brings her in, hoping to revive her, but it is already pretty obvious. She's been dead for more than a few minutes. The A/C never really cooled the car off during the short drive over from Lee's, and it did not take long for the car to go above 120 F once it was turned off. KC's mom was right - she's an unfit mother.

KC paces around not knowing what to do. The narcissist inside knows she needs to leave, and with Caylee. She calls Tony and tells him she is free for the evening...can she come over for the night? Tony readily agrees.

KC grabs the laundry bag and puts Caylee in it. She carries this to the car and puts it in the trunk. She packs for herself a couple of items, not really planning ahead beyond the coming eveing. Then she drives up to Tony's.

June 17

KC drives to her parent's home and backs into the garage. She opens the trunk and contemplates what to do next. Nothing really comes to mind. She tries moving the body and notices how stiff it is - no longer a cuddly girl. She is surprised at this and closes the trunk, goes inside to get more clothing for another night at Tony's, and leaves.

June 18

A return trip to the Anthony home, this time with a plan of what to do with Caylee: she will bury her in the yard. Unfortunately, she cannot get into the shed, so like any forward-thinker out there who wants to keep tracks covered, she goes to the neighbor and asks to borrow a shovel. :rolleyes: She moves the body to the back yard near a possible grave site. Digging even a shallow grave soon proves to be a daunting task, so KC rinses the shovel and returns it to the neighbor. Caylee goes back into the trunk and they return to Tony's.

June 19

She and Tony plan to meet with Matt C. late in the afternoon to look at an apartment. Prior to that meeting KC is cleaning Tony's apartment and around 3:00PM decides to take the garbage out on her way to Target or someplace like that. She opens the trunk and as she tosses the bag in she notices a stain on the liner under Caylee's laundry bag, and an unpleasant odor. She opens the bag to see where the stain is coming from and sees that fluid has been leaking from Caylee's mouth. Unbeknownst to KC, the movement of the body on the previous day accellerated the process of causing fluids to leak from the body.

This discovery surprises and horrifies Casey. Her first thought is to stop the fluid from coming out of Caylee's mouth. She recalls having Amy's duct tape in her car and pulls the roll out. From past experience she knows she cannot tear it well with her hands, so she runs inside and grabs a kitchen knife from Tony's. She cuts a strip of tape and wraps it around Caylee's head to stop the flow. After doing this she tosses the tape and knife into the car. Note...I am not saying pings near JBP indicate she did the taping there. I think this was simple - the parking lot is quiet this time of day. No need to drive out of the way for this.

Note that taping the mouth fixes the decomp date of the stain as 3 days after death. Also note that the bag from Tony's is the one eventually found at the tow yard. KC was so freaked by the fluids that she never went to the dumpster.

June 20

KC knows she needs to get the body out of the trunk, but the bag and trunk liner are soaked. She drives back to the grandparent's and grabs a trash bag, in which she places the laundry bag. On some level she knows this is not "right"...so she gets Caylee's Pooh blankie and puts that in the bag. Maybe a favorite toy horse she has clutched recently is spotted and she grabs that as well. These are put in the bag with Caylee. KC wants to kiss her daughter goodbye, but cannot bring herself to do so. Instead, she places a heart sticker on her cheek or lips, which are covered by duct tape (the warrant does not say where the tape was).

KC then drives up to Suburban and quickly dumps the body.

Wow...this is realistic and logical (for KC, at least)...

This explains away half my problem with the accident theory, which has been that if a child has an accident in the home, drowns, etc., the parent responds by calling 911...however, if KC's drugging Caylee caused said accident, that might be enough for her to feel she had to cover it up....

However, the other nagging doubt I've had about the accident theory is the partying, etc., and the utter lack of emotion or remorse....I still have a hard time gelling this aspect with an accident....

Regarding the duct tape, I just have to wonder, if it's ear to ear and in the hair as has been posted, I'm wondering if it was applied post mortem to keep her jaw in place? Perhaps when she was trying to move Caylee to get her in the bag her jaw was slack, and KC couldn't take looking at her like that...so she puts the duct tape from ear to ear around the jaw to hold her mouth closed (same could apply in your scenario also JWG...however possibly the mouth still leaked and that's when the tape on the mouth and the sticker?)
 
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