Theories on what happened to Haleigh

[kiki the parrot]

Kiki I totally agree! Great job JWG. I'd love to see this map on NG. Maybe ppl. living along this route would reconsider what they've passively seen in the past & how it could possibly apply now. I could stare at this map all day, trying to examine the possibilities. What is going on w/ the water that I see snaking around the houses before you reach St. John's River on the west? That didn't show up on the regular map I was looking at on Google. Is it a canal or something? I'm not familiar w/ Florida's little waterways that are seem so common all over their neighborhoods. From this map view, (thanks again JWG), I see the RR track is a more secluded way to walk from TRL's house (as opposed to the riverside trail) that I had imagined before I was able to see this map. It's the next best thing to being there.

1. kiki excuse me 4 clipping your post.
2. I highly doubt the theory of a perp. actually boarding a train w/ Haleigh, (w/ all due respect to whomever's theory that was).

Canals from the St. John's reach into neighborhood and I know only that at least one was searched early on, to some degree. Theories suggesting Haleigh could have been placed onto train, while not mine, I think were offered in order to explain why after continuing the length of Tyler St., Haleigh's scent stopped there where dogs were unable to pick up her scent beyond tracks. You can visualize this better w the aid of JWG's earlier map (below) which is all I was attempting to explain. After using google street view extensively yesterday--the closest thing to "being there"--I now think it highly likely anyone headed for this destination (Cove St.) would've indeed left vicinity via Tyler St. and followed tracks--because that is indeed the most secluded route. It's troubling to see how many dense woodsy areas there are all along the way. For what time or distance he would have had Haleigh w him is of course a matter of speculation but I feel it's improbable for long, that in this horrible scenario as w so many others he would have likely taken her to the outbuilding eg, and disposed of her before even exiting the neighborhood. If he had tried to do otherwise, even after dark, I feel the chances of them being spotted are too great. I do not know for certain that he was not driving, but feel it's more probable he would have been on foot, based in part upon dogs ability to follow scent. I also do not know whether if her scent was on a perp, whether hounds might follow this for some short distance after--but if was w/out a vehicle I'm left wracking my brain trying to imagine where one could possibly have put this precious child, and the waterways and dense brush are two strong possibilities for concealment. Here is original map showing where dogs went down to RR tracks (at Buffalo Bluffs), and stopped. The street view really gave me much better idea of what terrain is actually like--it wasn't a good feeling. I still don't like proximity of dog route to KJ either. And just can't understand if both have managed to satisfy LE. JMO "This map made possible by JWG."

arrot:

 

[KR2tonenow]

Yes LE reported that the SO Timothy Randolph Loucakis was home during the time that Misty says Haleigh was abducted (between 10:30ish and 2:30ish).

Problem is, from what I've been reading about those state issued GPS home monitoring devices used on criminals..... they leave a LOT to be desired.
Not accurate at all and the alerts are not even taken that seriously because the units give off false alerts all the time.

So what is FL LE to do? Announce to the whole country that their GPS home monitoring units are really not that reliable & that criminals are really not under strict surveillence??

I think TIMOTHY RANDOLPH LOUCAKIS should be charged as a suspect, & a search warrant issued on his house. Take his shoes, any black clothing, mail, paperwork that may contain; maps, email addresses, names, times, etc., flashlights, gloves, cameras, toys, fishing rods, handkerchieves, rubbing alcohol, his dirty laundry, lint from his dryer, any kind of tape, any kind of rope, receipts, photos, cd's, knives, locks, police scanners, newspapers, tinfoil, tools, cell phone....

They better hurry up - how long can they hold someone on a curfew violation?

:clapk...we fingered this guy early on in the investigation. Loucakis was a huge red flag because he sold child *advertiser censored* in addition to all his other sick crap.

1. Those GPS device things as am told can tell if you venture out of your "home" area. Now if this ventured off that same night and was out taking a stroll then Haleigh disappears....then they need to nail him.

2/ Florida has alot of problems. They need to do something about the HUGE number of homicides in that state.

3/Missing Person Mr. Waldo did wind up dead in Gainseville Florida. He was a missing person about the same week that Haleigh went missing and both persons live in the same area of Satsuma.

I agree foolhardingly about the warrant, I want this LE to step up their game!!

All the questions to Misty and they still don't have a clue????what???

 

[Beyond Belief]

I missed something: Missing person JOhn Waldo was from satsuma?

 

[CajunGirl]

i don't think he lived in satsuma ... i do believe he was from gainesville area

 

[kiki the parrot]

The convicted child sex predator LOUCAKIS walked out his back door, 100 Camellia Rd., Satsuma FL (Google Map it).

He followed the creek behind his house to the west, walked south along the shoreline of the St. John's River, and made a final left turn (east) straight to Haleigh's back door at 202 Green Dr., Satsuma FL (Google Map it).

He had seen her in the neighborhood, or at the schoolbus stop, or had observed that her father worked night work etc.
He Google Mapped a secluded, walkable route he could take to her house in order to not be detected. (He is very computer savy.)

Misty admittedly put Haleigh in her bed at 8:00pm (dark).

Loucakis's curfew wasn't until 10:00pm. He had two hours to snatch her.

Misty never checked on her. When Misty went to bed she didn't turn a light on in the room so she didn't realize that Haleigh was gone.

Misty woke up around 3:00am, realized she left the kitchen light on, got up to turn it off before Ron returned and realized the door open and Haleigh gone.

The search dogs followed Haleigh's scent down to the river (the route LOUCAKIS took with Haleigh back to his house).

Still believe TL is a strong SO candidate. Still working on this. And still so many questions... :waitasec:

1. Could TL have initially been on foot, but gained access to car or boat at a later point?

2. If TL returned w Haleigh to his house via creek route, how could we explain dogs tracking Haleigh along Tyler St. all the way up to Buffalo Bluffs Rd.?

3. W/out using car or boat, how could TL possibly leave the area w Haleigh via any other route w/out being spotted by anyone?

4. Could dogs tracking possibly include Haleigh's earlier activities that day such as route home from bus stop, playing w other kids etc and could they possibly be tracking a route by which she had eg walked or ridden a bike, ie along Tyler St to Buffalo Bluffs Rd, earlier that afternoon?

5. Could dogs track even for some very limited distance someone who has either been picked up and carried (as feline asked) or been placed inside a vehicle?

6. Could dogs track to some extent something or someone who has come into contact w the person they're tracking? (Ie brush and other material from dumpster--or more importantly, a perp who has assaulted?)

7. Could TL have arrived via creek route you describe but returned along RR tracks?

8. Is 7 pm sighting credible?

9. Which type of electroinic monitoring system is used in Putnam County (GPS?), and is LE still relying on gf's original timeline and only confirmed TL's whereabouts after 10pm or can LE positively place TL away from Haleigh's neighborhood between 7 and 10 pm?

10. Could TL have followed Haleigh home from her bus stop eg (Tyler St. @ Monroe St.) at 3:20 that day, and been stalking her up until point he saw his chance?

As my theory develops I now believe Haleigh may have been found by TL or another SO while perp was on foot, possibly after following home from bus stop eg in the afternoon; waiting until she was playing near, or luring her to, outbuilding eg or another discreet location in immediate area; after which he would have likely hidden Haleigh, left area temporarily, and returned later, ie after dark, using car or boat to dispose of her outside of the immediate area, much farther away. :furious:

There are numerous explanations for most of dog's tracking which could be consistent w her playing and numerous scenarios. But of everywhere dogs took LE I'm having hardest time understanding or explaining why Haleigh was tracked so far down Tyler St. all the way to Buffalo Bluffs Rd. (This is what caused me to think only perp could have led her along this route.) IMO all the other "dots" in more immediate vicinity of her home are much easier to connect. Her bus stop was at co. of Tyler @ Monroe St.--but why else would she have ventured so far east, what other explanation could there possibly be?

I am completely obsessed w figuring this out. I want this little angel found. Praying for Haleigh. JMO


arrot:

 

[kikid]

There are numerous explanations for most of dog's tracking which could be consistent w her playing and numerous scenarios. But of everywhere dogs took LE I'm having hardest time understanding or explaining why Haleigh was tracked so far down Tyler St. all the way to Buffalo Bluffs Rd. (This is what caused me to think only perp could have led her along this route.) IMO all the other "dots" in more immediate vicinity of her home are much easier to connect. Her bus stop was at co. of Tyler @ Monroe St.--but why else would she have ventured so far east, what other explanation could there possibly be?

arrot:

are you sure the bus stop was at tyler @ monroe st? I think the trail around Monroe and down tyler to RR tracks was from that morning or afternoon on the bus. The trail out the back door - i think was from the weekend.

I don't think she left that trailer that night from the back door. Does anyone know if they tried the dogs out the front door? hopefully they did try.

To summarize, i don't think any of those tracks the dogs found were from that night. I am not certain she left that trailer alive.

or perhaps that trailer wasn't the crime scene???? just thinking outloud

 

[kiki the parrot]

are you sure the bus stop was at tyler @ monroe st? I think the trail around Monroe and down tyler to RR tracks was from that morning or afternoon on the bus. The trail out the back door - i think was from the weekend.

I don't think she left that trailer that night from the back door. Does anyone know if they tried the dogs out the front door? hopefully they did try.

To summarize, i don't think any of those tracks the dogs found were from that night. I am not certain she left that trailer alive.

or perhaps that trailer wasn't the crime scene???? just thinking outloud

I actually called the bus compound (I told you I'm obsessed) and spoke w woman who was very informative and helpful. She assured me that all the children from the entire area (Seven Sisters, etc etc) all utilize this exact same stop--at Tyler and Monroe St. I do not personally believe trailer was crime scene, and theorize as above re where and how this may have occurred. JMO

arrot:

 

[kikid]

I actually called the bus compound (I told you I'm obsessed) and spoke w woman who was very informative and helpful. She assured me that all the children from the entire area (Seven Sisters, etc etc) all utilize this exact same stop--at Tyler and Monroe St. I do not personally believe trailer was crime scene, and theorize as above re where and how this may have occurred. JMO

arrot:

thanks for the info - well if that is in fact the bus stop then the scent the dogs picked up could very well have been from her riding the bus that day.

also, just because Misty was washing all the blankets and such doesn't mean there was anything on them, maybe just to diffuse Haleigh's scent to make it harder to track her actual path from the home that night.

this is of course a theory that perhaps she took the kids and went somewhere else that night and something happened to Haleigh elsewhere.

 

[Pennsolveania]

I have noticed that a lot of incarcerated SO's were caught b/c they they were searching the web, or soliciting over the web, or sharing (selling) child *advertiser censored* over the internet.

That means these sickos belong to an organization of sorts. They connect with one another. They know the lingo, they probably have their own language to surrepticiously talk to each other without getting caught. Most criminals like to brag, share stories. They probably give each other tips on where is a good place to stalk children. They probably share tips on using hidden cameras, etc.

It just stands to reason that this is going on. "Birds of a feather, flock together". They hook up with each other. They might have even worked in cahoots so the perp. who lives in the neighborhood sets up his alibi (b/c he'll be questioned) and the out-of-towner does the snatching b/c no one would suspect him.

Well anyway, I think they should question currently incarcerated child molesters. Those guys are already stuck in jail so why wouldn't they want to bring a fellow SO down with them? There were quite a few (from north eastern and central FL)that were imprisoned last year (for computer CP crimes) maybe LE could learn something useful about the current SO activity or interest in Haleigh's area.

 

[balaney]

Hmmm - new thought. What if Misty put the kids to bed on two different mattresses. She has someone over. They are partying. Haleigh wets the bed and gets up. She sees Misty and the friend. Misty is drugged/drunk and angry. She hits Haleigh too hard. They have to dispose of her. The other person (male or female but I lean toward male) takes Haleigh's body and disposes of her. Misty does not want Ron to know she had anybody there. Haleigh would tell.

 

[kikid]

here is a question for the seasoned sleuths...

what is the time window between when living scent becomes decomp scent?

will a body continue to give off scent immediately following death or for an interval of time? or does it immediately begin to decompose?

I've read on the dog threads that for about 1 to 2 hrs following death there is no decomp smell for the dogs to pick up. don't know if it is true, just read it here.

anyone know?

 

[Manny]

I don't really have a theory as to what happened, but I still believe she is long gone from the Florida area. I was glad to see that they will have the case on America's most wanted. They need to start looking for missing people from the area. Also I did wonder about those Villa's. I am not from Florida but if they are for snowbirds how would they ever know who was living that close? It may be someone from another state that has recently left Florida from those Villa's. If I were a detective I sure would be checking out that option.

 

[Cubby]

I believe the 2009-02-10
055.MOTION FOR CONTEMPT 03-27-09 AT 08:30 has been postponed until Haleigh is found.So the $4100 owed and the over $300 a month is not a problem for the biomom now as long as Haleigh is missing.

I wasn't sure where to put this and if in the wrong place, mods please move. I don't believe contempt of court for child support would be a factor in this case. A week or so ago, I accidently stumbled upon a child support arrears and forgiveness program for the state of Michigan along with a few other states. I was unaware these programs existed due to the Bradley ammendment ( for those of you aware of the BA it states child support arrears can not be forgiven for various reasons). Now, the two confused me a bit.... however it appears there exists a means for which a parent who is behind with arrears can participate in such a program.

The two common denominators of this child support arrears payment plan and forgiveness program appear to be for lower income and most importantly encouragement of the payer to be making current payments and remain current on payments.

I haven't searched to see if Florida has such a program but I assume they do, most states do...... so it would have been easier for Crystal to have applied for this program and stayed current on her 300 per mo cs than to have killed her daughter over 4000.

IF I find a link for FL having this program, I will try and post it. If anyone else does, feel free to link it.

jmo

 

[kiki the parrot]

I should mention I was also informed by the friendly bus dispatcher or coordinator that no child is permitted to get off school bus unless adult/parent is at stop to meet them--otherwise they are taken across town to bus compound. This at least rules out possibility that Haleigh could have gotten off bus w/out adult there to meet her. Assuming bus driver (I know her name too, oy) confirmed for LE it was in fact dad who was there at stop to meet Haleigh that day, I am still left wondering exactly what time dad rounded up gf; if stories re gf just coming off three-day drug binge are true; and if she could've been either late and dad possibly left for work before gf actually arrived; or gf continued to party as soon as dad left--either case in which there could've been some period earlier in the day during which there was no actual supervision of Haleigh. I am just not sure at all re alleged 7 pm sighting, nor bedtime, nor the sketchy account we've heard of the hours following Haleigh's reported arrival at bus stop--and neither evidently is LE who continues requestioning gf, no doubt re timeline and the actual width of "window of opportunity" thru which an SO could have crawled. JMO

arrot:

 

[Cubby]

non-payment of child support is contempt of court, so possible jail time and enforcement of payment (liens, taking vehicles owned by mother, attaching bank accounts--that is what they do here in CA). About the money RC is collecting, he hasn't worked for 10+ days already and his bills I'm assuming are due on the 1st. He would miss a whole pay period already. I think his requests for $ could be substantiated. I don't think he saved $$ from his last paycheck to pay half of his bills on the first. It could be that he lived paycheck to paycheck. Just my opinion.

All this speculation, do we know that Ron C's employer does not have a family leave Ron qualifies for? That perhaps his employer is allowing him time off with pay?

Now before anyone jumps all over me regarding the child support speculation, I am a member of ACES- and advocacy group for child support enforcement and an IL CS group as well. Geraldine Jensen, the founder of ACES (association for children for the enforcement of support) is a recipient of the Heinz Award, a pretty prestigious award, imo and was instrumental in many of the current federal cs guidelines.

 

[kiki the parrot]

I have noticed that a lot of incarcerated SO's were caught b/c they they were searching the web, or soliciting over the web, or sharing (selling) child *advertiser censored* over the internet.

That means these sickos belong to an organization of sorts. They connect with one another. They know the lingo, they probably have their own language to surrepticiously talk to each other without getting caught. Most criminals like to brag, share stories. They probably give each other tips on where is a good place to stalk children. They probably share tips on using hidden cameras, etc.

It just stands to reason that this is going on. "Birds of a feather, flock together". They hook up with each other. They might have even worked in cahoots so the perp. who lives in the neighborhood sets up his alibi (b/c he'll be questioned) and the out-of-towner does the snatching b/c no one would suspect him.

Well anyway, I think they should question currently incarcerated child molesters. Those guys are already stuck in jail so why wouldn't they want to bring a fellow SO down with them? There were quite a few (from north eastern and central FL)that were imprisoned last year (for computer CP crimes) maybe LE could learn something useful about the current SO activity or interest in Haleigh's area.

Hey leave birds out of it... j/k. It is sickening and repulsive. As I said I think SO's computer is very useful to LE but they already know he's into this. And I understand *advertiser censored* industry itself is highly organized thanks in chief to anonymity afforded by today's internet which makes the consuming, circulating and exchanging of even child *advertiser censored* one disgusting thing. But would pedophiles who go as far as to abduct and murder their victims divulge details or brag amongst themselves re high-profile crimes against missing children? I am no expert, it just sounds beyond even your "garden variety, run-of-the-mill" SOB (if there is such a thing) nor anything anyone involved in that could chance sharing? H#[[ I don't know, at this point it's all vile and evil. JMO :furious:

 

[PinkyPoo]

here is a question for the seasoned sleuths...

what is the time window between when living scent becomes decomp scent?

will a body continue to give off scent immediately following death or for an interval of time? or does it immediately begin to decompose?

I've read on the dog threads that for about 1 to 2 hrs following death there is no decomp smell for the dogs to pick up. don't know if it is true, just read it here.

anyone know?

That's a variable that would include what the given tempature is of the surrounding air. i.e...in warmer weather decomp is faster so the scent is sooner. 2 hours would be about average give or take an hour due to temp.

 

[kikid]

That's a variable that would include what the given tempature is of the surrounding air. i.e...in warmer weather decomp is faster so the scent is sooner. 2 hours would be about average give or take an hour due to temp.

Thanks for answering!!

ok, just to verify I understand correctly - there is a 1-2 hour (depending on temperature) time window following death when no trace of decomp scent is left?

here is my follow up question... during this window of time, does the body leave "Living" or traceable scent that other dogs could track?? or is this time frame untraceable scent-wise?

 

[PinkyPoo]

I would not be comforterable saying that NO trace of decomp is left before 2 hours or so. Rather a smaller trace is left. I guess we would have to get an answer from a forensic specialist to be that technical.

 

[kiki the parrot]

I hadn't realized before that there are so many different search methods for which dogs can be employed. According to info in this very short article I'm guessing "trailing" dogs were used by LE. It briefly describes other types (including cadaver dogs) but here's an excerpt re trailing:

"Trailing Dogs are trained to follow a specific human scent, which may or may not approximate the path the person took because of factors affecting the dispersal of scent such as wind and temperature. To start trailing a specific individual, the dog needs a scent article that the person has directly handled. The dog is then started on the trail at the point where the victim was last seen (PLS). Trailing dogs will follow the route of scent deposited on the ground as a person moves through an area. This deposited scent trail is affected by wind and other weather conditions so the dog may not follow the person's exact footsteps. The trailing dog may work parallel to the path the individual actually walked. A trained trailing dog can follow the steps of someone who passed by several days earlier, discriminate between it and another's trail, and follow it over hills and through marshland. Dogs can even trail people in cars, from the scent that blows out of the window or through the vents of the car."

Well, that would answer two of my ten questions...

http://www.westjerseyk9.org/types/index.html

arrot: