Hey everyone,
I just finished reading this thread beginning to end and have a few thoughts.
These are clearly the actions of a person who is unwell, regardless of how GS may be excusing/rationalizing it in his own head. What he's done--no matter the reason--is a crime and she is in danger regardless of the backstory.
That said, I truly do think two explanations stand out as most plausible:
OPTION ONE: He has mental illness and/or impulses that have worsened over time, either as his state of mind deteriorated or as the little girl matured. He intends to hide away in a remote area with the girl for some period of time. While he doesn't have a criminal record and we don't know of him buying any weapons or blatantly obvious items (ropes etc.) that might be used as restraints, based on what we know of other public abductions (as well as the warnings from police and his wife that she may be in danger), he may intend to imprison and assault her.
OPTION TWO: Due to his own limitations (such as mental illness or inadequate education), he may have come to believe there is no legal or public path to achieving the outcome he deems to be "the right thing." That outcome he's desiring could be a number of things: that the girl live with him and view him as father, that the girl be protected from parents he sees as neglectful, etc. This could also be the actions of someone who believes THEY did all the work to raise a child, but have now been supplanted by (and are jealous of) the birth father. Even if option two proves true, his choices are inexcusable.
A few other random thoughts in relationship to others' previous posts:
- Some have questioned how much money he might have based on two reports (it's been called both a limited amount and a significant amount, which of course is relative). If those photos of him looking into the camera do turn out to be from an ATM, most ATMS limit a person to withdrawing around $1,000 in a business day.
- Based on my observations as a parent with a similar-aged child, I do NOT think the girl in the video is unusually distressed. Bored or antsy, maybe a little befuddled, sure. But for a child to be lagging behind or have their fingers in their mouth in that sort of scenario: that's like 99% of my shopping experiences with my kids. I also think its possible that he told the school and Carlie two DIFFERENT stories. He may have told the school that Carlie's father had been an accident when he arrived, for example, but NEVER relayed that excuse to Carlie. (After all, the school would not expect him to have that very private and traumatic conversation with her in the pick up area, so it's possible he acted normally once they were in the car. Remember, he'd been asked to pick her up and take her to appointments in the past.)
- I think we should remember that she has had different custody arrangements throughout her life. Unlike my kids who would find it VERY unusual if someone took custody of them and offered a strange explanation, this EXACT scenario may have happened to her in the past where GS or his wife may have suddenly arrived and explained that her father was in jail etc.
-In addition, she may have even gone hunting, fishing, or camping alone with him in the past (as his wife may have stayed home with their disabled son), so it may have taken her a long time to begin to ask questions. And depending on how convincing his stories are, or how many times she's been pulled out of school abruptly or told her custody is changing in the past, it may have some sense of normalcy to her.
- I agree with many posters who have said he's likely to still be in his hometown area, and I would add the most likely second location would be wherever he was raised (someone mentioned War in a previous post). There are several reasons that lead me to believe this: His personality is a homebody, he's lived in the general region his whole life and probably knows many remote locations, and growing up in a rural area probably led to him acquiring some skill as an outdoorsmen. Secondly, traveling farther and in unfamiliar areas (where there would be cameras, tolls, more cars to observe him etc.) would increase his risk of being seen, and there have been no credible sightings yet. Also, WHEN HE DISAPPEARED PREVIOUSLY, THE LONGEST HE WAS GONE WAS 10 HOURS. If it turns out that he was indeed prepping a shelter of some kind, that distance suggests a 4-5 hour radius max as he would have to drive there, prep, and get back within 10 hours.
-I would also add that someone who is outdoorsy might just think two pairs of pants is enough as they could wear them a few days and rinse them off at a water source to be hung to dry.
-It also occurred to me that he might've packed many more supplies, clothing etc. in the back of the van, but stopped only to buy a few items for Carlie in order to both win her favor and also to make it appear they were just going on a simple day or overnight trip.
