My opinions only, no facts here:
Harmed by someone she knows: 4 out of 7
Abducted by someone who knows her: 2 out of 7
A random event of opportunity: 1 out of 7
If I knew for a fact that the neighbor heard Holly scream (and I am still skeptical about this report), then I would change the odds listed above.
I posted my thoughts on an earlier thread, and these thoughts are only relevant IF the official timeline is accurate. If the official timeline is not accurate, I will still stick with the route traveled: "I hypothesize that Holly was led NE or SE from the house to a waiting vehicle on or near Swan Johnson Road. From there the vehicle traveled north to the intersection of 5 Forks and Swan Johnson Road. Somewhere after that she is no longer in the vehicle and evidence is placed in various areas (I believe more items remain to be found) while traveling on a circuitous clockwise route around the general area of the crime."
I do not like to think of Holly Bobo as deceased, but I am not giving her a 5% chance of being alive for reasons of sympathy. There are elements to the case that present a SLIM hope she is being held or otherwise out of town. But these are such slim possibilities that I cannot factor them into my simple probability list above.
The reason I am thinking about going over to the McStay and Jamison cases is because they have aspects not common in unsolved cases: more than one missing person (four and three missing respectively). One missing person who is small (not Andre the Giant) can be relatively easy to conceal or otherwise dispose of. With two, three, or four people, successful disposal becomes almost impossible unless the perpetrator has what I call "unusual access". This refers to ready access to a large area of private land, junkyard, adjacent wilderness, big construction site, etc. This is why the disappearance of several people at once are often voluntary disappearances, especially if they are related. Holly is just one small person and looking for her is near-impossible unless the investigator develops a theory and uses it to narrow the search by orders of magnitude. There was a public search for Holly at the junction of 5 Forks and Swan Johnson Road. I would be inclined to go back to that area and maybe take a right turn at the junction.
