My opinions only, no facts here:
As you will gather, I am back. I have not been away; just busy gathering more evidence. I have previously posted a detailed timeline for this case and I hope my timeline is still contemporary and useful. I did see the post about the person who found the keycard. If there are any other firm updates, let me know about them and I will tweak my timeline. I want the mods to know that even though I maintain a thick electronic dossier of reports, photos, and videos concerning the Holly Bobo case, I have never named a suspect. In that spirit, the following discussion is NOT intended to even hint at any specific individual named in this case. I do however, plead guilty to visiting competing sleuther sites to fish for additional tidbits.
I have felt since Day 1 that this case is eminently solvable. The perpetrator knew Holly's daily schedule well. The crime was in a sparsely populated area with very few or no adjacent suspects, where the police arrive very promptly and everybody knows everybody. Dogs on the scent fairly expeditiously. If there was a four-wheeler or truck in the woods behind the home speeding off with Holly, it would have been heard from the Bobo household. Tire tracks of a 4-wheeler or truck would have been readily identifiable on secondary or logging roads. Even a few patrol cars could have formed an impenetrable dragnet. So, I think that the perpetrator was not clever, they were lucky.
The following theory presumes that Holly was abducted (remember that even this cannot be known with certainty, based upon how little info we are privy to). Until this crime is resolved, I will continue to be puzzled that the lunch bag and phone were not dumped at or very close to the abduction site. But I have to work with the official story-lines.
I call this guy out. The perpetrator is local. The perpetrator had gradually developed an obsession with Holly. I suggest it is someone who knew Holly well enough to determine her daily schedule. This individual was not an inner-circle friend, but someone in the median circle (friend of a friend or a very casual acquaintance through growing up OR present-day school, church, or work). I think the perpetrator used a knife in the apprehension. I can come to no other conclusion that after the perpetrator confronted Holly and pleaded with her in some bizarre fashion in the carport, he became panicked or enraged and she was hustled through the edge of the woods, quickly loaded into a vehicle, and taken north along Swan Johnson Road. This vehicle is most likely to be a car with a trunk, and not a truck. The perpetrator is most likely to have been based out of a place north from the Bobo household, in the Bible Hill region. Holly may have been held prisoner for a time at a residence in the Bible Hill region. The lunch bag was tossed on the day of the crime, but Holly was not with the perpetrator when the lunch bag was tossed. The placement of the lunch bag was not arbitrary, rather a crude attempt to misdirect searchers or even to frame someone else. The cell phone (if it exists) was planted at a later time.
Something that has been in the back of my mind from day one. The perpetrator must have waited in the woods until he believed that only Holly was home. Yet, he would have observed only the mother and father leaving the home. If he knew enough to lie in wait, he would also know that the brother had not left yet. UNLESS, he believed that Holly's brother had left very early to hunt turkeys with Holly's boyfriend.
If a sleuth would reverse-engineer the slip-ups of the perpetrator (lunch bag placement, Holly's brother still at home, failure to leave the crime scene immediately), they might get a better understand about who this individual is. An example of reverse engineering in analyzing a case: police find a damning piece of evidence lying conspicuously in my back yard. They should ask me- "do you know anyone who is capable of committing this crime AND who knows you and where you live?" Or more relevantly- they could ask Holly's brother- "do you know any creepy person who might have been under the impression that you would be out hunting on the day of the crime?"
Keep on sleuthing!