I agree masootz. In my estimation, there are two choices. One is you believe the facts as provided and you attempt to sleuth from there. Obviously, if there are 2 contradicting facts actually presented, you can hypothesize using one or the other facts, but I really don't see many contradicting facts that have been released, mainly because so little has been released by LE. The other option is to simply not believe the facts provided because, well because you simply don't believe them. If that's the case, I think it's difficult to sleuth at all because it becomes too easy to pick and choose the facts to fit a theory instead of finding a theory that fits the facts.
If someone within an extended circle of relation to Holly is considered, is there anything else that could further narrow down that list? Obviously to males that approximate the height/weight given. What else would narrow it down?
well said. if we are to sleuth this, we have to do so with the information given (regardless of our personal beliefs) unless two pieces of information contradict each other, in which case we have to make a best estimate of which one is valid (often by weighing sources - reporter vs family member, first-hand account vs rumor). to do anything else is to end up exactly with what you said - picking and choosing facts to fit a theory. that said -
cb indicated he thought at some point the perp was holly's boyfriend. he stated he saw the person wearing camouflage so it's reasonable to expect he saw enough of the person to conclude they were roughly the same height/weight as her boyfriend. i'm not sure if he ever stated he conclusively saw the skin color or enough of the person to determine the age.
we know that the bobo house is secluded. we know that she was taken down a trail that was variously described as an area that would not be obvious to someone unfamiliar with the terrain. we know she exited her house to get into her car which would take less than a minute (to walk out of her house, unlock car, throw bags inside, get in car). we know she did not even get her bags in the car (as various items were found later) so whoever approached her had to have done so in an extremely small window of time (maybe thirty seconds - from the time she shut the door of the house until the time she approached her car). this fully indicates someone waiting for her.
we know her plan was to complete her normal week day routine, get up, talk on the phone, go to school, etc. we know the same for her family with perhaps the exception of cb. reports are variously that he was/wasn't planning to go hunting and it's reasonable to assume the perp thought she was the last one to leave. i'd be very interested in learning more about cb's usual routine. if in fact the perp was lying in wait, then why this particular morning as opposed to any other, unless he thought she was alone. if it was cb's normal routine to be out of the house early then it makes sense that the perp thought he was gone. if cb was always the last one gone then it makes little sense that the perp would try to grab her at home (knowing her gun carrying brother was inside if she screamed).
we don't know exactly what happened next, but we do have some clues. le was on the scene in a reasonable amount of time. neighbors heard a scream. cb saw holly headed towards the trail (variously reported as dragged, led, etc). there were a variety of calls to 911. it's reasonable to assume the perp did not plan for any of this - again, why kidnap someone in a remote part of town if you think there's a chance le will be on the scene within 20 minutes? that said, he wasn't caught that morning with her so it's reasonable to assume he had planned this well enough to avoid detection (alternate theory is that since the calls to 911 weren't reported as a kidnapping le might not have noticed him driving down the road with her - not sure i buy this though). it is almost certain he planned to remove her from the area otherwise the stealth and the planning make no sense. if he truly thought he'd be alone with her and just wanted to kill her or assault her why not do it at her car or force her back into her house, or at the very least do these things a hundred yards down the trail? within twenty minutes the perp had her entirely out of the area. that speaks of planning and forethought.
the only thing outside of the above that matters to me as far as coming up with an idea of the perpetrator is that no sign of her has been found in the past year. again, it speaks to someone who had carefully planned this out. if he killed her, he didn't do it anywhere near her home and he certainly didn't dump the body sloppily. if he still has her, he's obviously someone who blends in well. in either case, he's someone who was able to get away without being noticed long enough to stalk her, learn her routine, grab her, move her, hide her. that could easily be explained as a local who hunts (it's easy to tell friends/family you were out hunting but didn't catch anything and it also goes along with familiarity with the area and with wearing camouflage).
it could also be something entirely different but local hunter who had a familiarity with her and her family would be my best guess. probably a six foot tall, somewhat stocky white guy. could be 20 - 50 (unless i missed somewhere cb said he saw him well enough to guess an age). i'd definitely look at people who went to the same school as her, friends of her brother, friends of her boyfriend, people who had done work on the family's house (or had other reasons to be around the house in the months prior). essentially men who were in a position to notice her and be able to ascertain some level of knowledge about the family's routines.
just my 2 cents.
