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My hypothesis is that more happened on the doorstep that night, and the police are very reluctant to release this information into the public domain.
My gut feeling is that AW was definitely meant to die that night, but for some unknown reason the killer hesitated in pulling the trigger 1st time round: "why"? My gut instincts tell me that perhaps the gunman was aware of AW young sons presence, either with there Dad, or present with him at the door on the 1st encounter, If so then it's highly plausible that this completely threw the gunman off track and he couldn't bring himself round to carrying out the hit.
I have always found it strange that the Police released footage of AW eldest son not long after the crime being told by a child psychologist that his Daddy was never going to come back home, I'm sure if my memory serves me correctly the son in question was clearly distressed in the video and just wanted his Dad to come back home, it was almost like the Police were using this to play on the gunmans conscience, in hope that he would hand themselves in.
The eldest son also did an appeal last year aswell, it's almost like the Police are using this as tactic in hope that it will finally make a breakthrough.
I think the envelope was always meant to be used that night, almost as a way to verify the person he was sent to kill. Example : " I have a letter for Paul at number 10 crescent road" AW: "Sorry I'm the only man that stays here and I'm AW" so by that simple use of the envelope he knew this was definitely the right target and AW verified the envelope as the correct address and also himself inadvertently in the process.
From that point I believe the envelope grew and drew more attention to itself, far more than what its sole purpose was supposed to be used for.
It obviously didn't mean a great deal to the gunman as he could have taken the envelope from AW before he took it back inside to show his wife, i don't believe the name "PAUL" had any real significance to the gunman or to the people that hired him to carry out the hit, under no circumstances would they be so naive to leave such a significant amount of clues or evidence on an envelope which would jeopardize them being caught.
I think the gunman lost control of the situation very quickly in quite a short space of time, but when AW came back to the door second time round, in all probability to hand the envelope back to the gunman and to tell him that he definitely got the wrong house, I believe then the gunman pulled the trigger straight away and got himself away from the scene.