The Envelope
The police are somewhat equivocal about the envelope - the principal investigator (Det Supt Gary Cunningham) says: "I need to know if there's any idea as to why this envelope may have contained nothing". He uses those words because he doesn't know whether there was anything in the envelope when it was handed to Alistair - only that it was empty when his wife saw it. They say that the envelope was 'open': there are two ways an envelope can be open - either the flap isn't stuck down or it has been stuck down and the top slit - they haven't said which. If the flap hadn't been stuck down it's likely that there was originally nothing in it and Alistair was expected to put something in. If it had been opened then that is less likely and something was already inside but was removed before his wife saw it. Also what the police won't say is whether there was anything else written on the envelope or even how the name had been written - typed, block caps etc.
Why did the killer hand Alistair an envelope and what was its purpose? The most plausible explanation is that Alistair was expected to put something into it - probably money - and hand it back to the man who was still at the door; that explains why he waited outside for several minutes for Alistair to return. When he did return the envelope was empty; so he was killed.
If it was supposed to be filled with cash, how much money could that be? The largest denomination in Scotland is a £50 note (the same as the rest of the UK) so around £5,000 or possibly slightly more would fit into such an envelope (the envelope has been described as a roughly a quarter of A4 in size, i.e. A6). It seems unlikely, however, that the Wilsons, if they're like most families, would have such a large sum just lying around in the house. Why would the killer expect them to be able to hand over so much money on demand? He (or an accomplice) would surely have warned Alistair in advance (probably by phone, I think) that he would be coming and be expecting the nominated sum to be handed over there and then. ("Paul wants his money - have it ready by Sunday"). Clearly, Alistair never received such a message which explains his bewilderment. So, if Alistair didn't get the message then probably another Alistair Wilson did (the 'correct' Alistair Wilson). If I'm right so far it looks like a simple case of mistaken identity.
It can be speculated that when the 'correct' Alistair Wilson heard about the murder he would surely have seen that he was in danger and also would have seen the two courses of action that were open to him - either contact the police (and possibly incriminate himself) or pay up when the knock on the door came - it looks as though he chose the latter.
What all this means is that the 'correct' Alistair Wilson would have known who he was dealing with and therefore who had ordered the hit. This knowledge alone would have placed him is some danger and so just paying off 'Paul' would not have put him in the clear.
I believe that Alistair was always meant to be murdered and people are concentrating far to much on the envelope and why he would be allowed back in. This inturn is distracting them from trying to make sense of it and the more you read, the more confused you become. I know that's what happened to me for a while.
I do believe it was a murder for hire plot arranged by someone he had upset ( finances) possible an affair, and the person who arranged it either knew violent gang members, or had a violent friend.
When a murder for hire is arranged by a third party 9 times out of 10 you find that the person who is requesting the killing usually provides the weapon.
In order to give you some context. There was a murder of a off duty police officer called Nisha Patel- Nasri. Her husband had hired someone to kill her and had given the killer keys to his house to do so wheile he was out. The hired hit used a knife from their knife block killing her inside her house. 10 days later just like in this case, the knife was found down a drain a few streets away, just outside the search parameters.
The reason for dumping the weopan in this way is because they know that it will not be traced back to them, and they don't want to be walking around with it on their person after the murder. Especially when the police & paramedics are likely on their way. ( in this case very close by)
They then walk away usually in the direction of waiting vehicle In this case on the dimly lit links carpark with no CCTV where coincidently tracker dogs did follow a scent to ( Perhaps to the same 4x4 Mitshibishi seen the night before, and they disappear. ( likley to Inverness)
With that in mind and knowing that the small calibre weapon he had been provided with meant he needed to be close to his target in order to kill him, perhaps that's why he used the envelope. ( Alistair handing it back insured that closness.)
The man who knocked on the door with the envelope likely gave him a *advertiser censored*-and-bull-story about what was in it, ( hence his bewilderment) so when he went back inside and found it to be empty, and that it was not addressed to him, he obviously went out to check if the man was still there. (Matching what we the public know).
If we remember what Veronica said to Journalist interviewing her. His decision to go back and see if he was still there was based on what the killer had said! Now it makes more sense.
However by the time Alistair returned it was a different man standing there, not the guy who handed him the envelope. And that is who shot him.
Veronica only saw the back of him walking away, and let's say, in a bid to turn a profit the people who made the Blouson jacket and the Cap the man she saw was wearing, made more than one and the two people involved wore the same/simular outfits.
Perhaps the envelope had contained nothing, but initially contained the gun and Paul was who it was delivered to, had just reused that same envelope.
I have also read that in the early hours of Sunday morning neighbours reported seeing a 4x4 Mitsubishi parked up outside Alistair’s house, and the men inisde were acting suspiciously and after being disturbed, they drove off. That being the case perhaps that was the same vehicle waiting for the killer on the links carpark.
Maybe the way to solve this crime lies further back in Alistair’s finances before he moved to Nairn, and lies in how he financed Lothian House.
That was a 9 bedroom property, with 6 bathrooms and 3 reception rooms. How does a 28 year old man finance something like that? Speaking to the chartered accountant who was involved with that purchase would likely uncover any unusual transactions.
When he was seen gambling what was described as large amounts of money 2 days before his murder, still in his suit, going there straight from work. Was he laundering money through the bookmakers, rather than through the bank, which is why police found no unusual transactions at the bank?
Looking at the fact he could afford to take a job with a lower wage, gamble large amounts of money and still afford to run that property, you have to question where his finances were coming from.
Had the closure of the B&B buisness he had initially bought Lothian House for the purpose of, caused the problem? Rather than his decision to leave the bank?
The intent was always to kill Alistair imo, and the motive could be anything some one will eventuly guess right, but perhaps trying to find that 4x4 Mitsubishi seen the night before might be the way to go. My guess would be one of the men seen in it was named Paul.
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