GUILTY UK - Helen Bailey, 51, Royston, 11 April 2016 #1

[Joely 123]

Interesting post Annad - and, like you and all of us, I hope Helen has justice x

 

[MillyM]

More 3am ponderings!

Had been having a few thoughts. It seems, am I wrong, that the previous owner of Hartwell Lodge also ran a business (computer type?) from there?

(see*https://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/net-revolution )

What if, hypothetically speaking, it was him 'Joe and Nick' were after, or his 'paperwork' anyway, and it was a case of mistaken identity? They presumed previous owner still lived there, and maybe assumed HB to be previous owner's wife, hence why she would 'know' where these particulars were?

If these two mystery men were familiar with previous owner, they may also have heard about the 'good place to bury a body' in the garage. Previous owner seemingly made it known to next door neighbour (whose daughter was the one who informed police), and no doubt he would have talked about it to other friends and associates of his.

And before anyone here says, well, okay, but how do you account for the drug found in HB's body? Well... I do have an idea, and in fact, it is quite unconnected to the above. Just would be a bizarre coincidence. I would rather not say publicly for various reasons, but it just came to me after someone's evidence in court and some astute comments by a few sleuths here. I am probably way off mark anyway. But just trying to do some lateral thinking on it!

 

[LozDa]

More 3am ponderings!

Had been having a few thoughts. It seems, am I wrong, that the previous owner of Hartwell Lodge also ran a business (computer type?) from there?

(see*https://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/net-revolution )

What if, hypothetically speaking, it was him 'Joe and Nick' were after, or his 'paperwork' anyway, and it was a case of mistaken identity? They presumed previous owner still lived there, and maybe assumed HB to be previous owner's wife, hence why she would 'know' where these particulars were?

If these two mystery men were familiar with previous owner, they may also have heard about the 'good place to bury a body' in the garage. Previous owner seemingly made it known to next door neighbour (whose daughter was the one who informed police), and no doubt he would have talked about it to other friends and associates of his.

And before anyone here says, well, okay, but how do you account for the drug found in HB's body? Well... I do have an idea, and in fact, it is quite unconnected to the above. Just would be a bizarre coincidence. I would rather not say publicly for various reasons, but it just came to me after someone's evidence in court and some astute comments by a few sleuths here. I am probably way off mark anyway. But just trying to do some lateral thinking on it!

Milly, just to clarify - do you believe that Joe and Nick are real and that IS is innocent as he says?

If so, could you run through a scenario that explains all the timeline discrepancies, the phone Wi-Fi connection, the trips to the tip, the fact that she was put in the cesspit, the drugging, the fact that literally no one else knew of or suspected of this major trouble they were in, including someone who lives in the same house, but yet wasn't warned about these dangerous men that kept appearing in the house to threaten them, the fact that the police weren't brought in, the fact that IS moved Helen's car over the cesspit entrance and put a board over the top, the fact that IS said Helen had written a note, when clearly she hadn't....... Etc.

You bring up little bits of the picture to explain Joe and Nick, but I cannot see an entire scenario where they could possibly exist. They seem every bit like a man's last ditch attempt to get out of trouble.

But I'd welcome any full versions of how they could exist and how they could have carried out this crime that IS then covered up....

 

[Florrie]

I think 3am pondering sound like insomnia lol. I can do a bit of that at times too.

I think if Helen and IS had REALLY been threatened by "Joe and Nick" they would have gone straight to the police. They would have had no reason not to bar the probable "but we were threatened and told not to" from IS. That's IF he takes the stand, and I don't think he is in "any fit state" to do so. I think Michelle's descriptions of him in court are very telling as to his current state of mind. He would be a disaster for the Defence and they will advise him strongly not to bother.

It's not just the drugs found in HB but the computer searches she was doing "why am I falling asleep all the time" etc. These show clearly that she was being drugged without her knowledge. I don't know what other theory can explain that.


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[LozDa]

“Around that time Dad had been in hospital. On the week of April 11, he had been recovering well but still spent a lot of time resting.

“He’d come to Cambridge and I thought it was the first time he’d traveled that distance. He told me his stitches were sore from sitting in the car for so long.

“I visited him in hospital several times. On occasions Helen was more than concerned about him being in hospital.”

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/new...bailey-murder-trial-week-12452783?98797?98098

I've brought this up again because Royston to Cambridge is 13 miles. If his stitches were sore after a 13 mile trip, I wonder how he got on with the 240 mile Royston to Broadstairs round trip. And again, the 150 mile trip to Leatherhead and back to see Helen's Investment Advisor.

I think we can safely assume from this that IS was most definitely giving the impression to his sons that he was in more pain than he actually was.

From personal experience and also having had an operation that left a wound on my belly button from an incision, I'd be very surprised if he genuinely had trouble lifting dinner trays for any amount of time after the first day or two. There's also a huge difference between the actual skin-level wound being sore and the wound causing such pain to the detriment of mobility. It would be good to get clarity on this from a medical professional as I believe that this may be the only reasonable sticking point as to whether he was physically capable at the time.

Although I think there is more than enough circumstantial evidence to pale that query into insignificance, personally. But, if I were to cover all bases for a jury, I think I would be looking to have a medical professional discuss the operation he had and expected mobility following it.

 

[Alyce]

A little note re The Ballad of Joe and Nick.

Didnt one of ISs statements say that one or both of them had punched him in the stomach - knowing he had had an operation.
How did they know this ? Did IS casually drop it into the conversation as they were threatening him ?

The operation was only three weeks before April 11 - therefore, I would have expected J and N to be uppermost in ISs mind when the police began the missing persons enquiry with all its attendant questions, such as - did Helen have any problems, reason to hide away etc...

I have absolutely no belief in this fairy story - just wanted to highlight another discrepancy in ISs evidence.

 

[LozDa]

A little note re The Ballad of Joe and Nick.

Didnt one of ISs statements say that one or both of them had punched him in the stomach - knowing he had had an operation.
How did they know this ? Did IS casually drop it into the conversation as they were threatening him ?

The operation was only three weeks before April 11 - therefore, I would have expected J and N to be uppermost in ISs mind when the police began the missing persons enquiry with all its attendant questions, such as - did Helen have any problems, reason to hide away etc...

I have absolutely no belief in this fairy story - just wanted to highlight another discrepancy in ISs evidence.

Also, did they so lightly punch him that they didn't feel it was necessary for him to visit a hospital? After being punched in a wound that was already causing him so much pain that he couldn't lift a dinner tray?

The very same Joe and Nick, who are so capable of cold blooded murder, are unable to throw a proper punch?

The more I think about the Joe and Nick saga, the more ridiculous it becomes.

 

[Alyce]

I also had some late night musings ( not quite as far as 3am ) and am definately leaning now towards the theory that IS did not intend to kill Helen on Monday April 11.

My reason is the medical appointment.
This was booked for 11.30am. If IS had intended to murder on this day, then he would have done it earlier that morning, allowing time to move the bodies, then go to the appointment - giving him a great alibi out of the house, while Helen allegedly goes off to Broadstairs.

Instead, he has waited until at least 10.58 hrs before taking action - knowing that he then needs to depart at 11.15 - 11.20 latest to get to the surgery for 11.30. Doesnt make sense.

He doesn't call the surgery to reschedule until 11.33 hrs which indicates to me that something unexpected happened between 11 and 11.30 - resulting in Helen's death.

 

[Alyce]

Chloe Keedy ‏@ChloeKeedyITV 1m1 minute ago

Judge tells jury in Helen Bailey murder trial court can't sit for 2nd day - Ian Stewart 'not fit even to be brought to court

 

[Alyce]

Hhhmmm, anyone like to guess how long this will go on for


And -interesting wording yet again ........not fit even to be brought to court, does not sound like he just has a stomach upset or heavy cold

 

[Alyce]

Tara Cox ‏@TaraCoxCN 7m7 minutes ago

The Helen Bailey murder trial has been adjourned again this morning due to the illness of the defendant Ian Stewart. More to follow

 

[LozDa]

I also had some late night musings ( not quite as far as 3am ) and am definately leaning now towards the theory that IS did not intend to kill Helen on Monday April 11.

My reason is the medical appointment.
This was booked for 11.30am. If IS had intended to murder on this day, then he would have done it earlier that morning, allowing time to move the bodies, then go to the appointment - giving him a great alibi out of the house, while Helen allegedly goes off to Broadstairs.

Instead, he has waited until at least 10.58 hrs before taking action - knowing that he then needs to depart at 11.15 - 11.20 latest to get to the surgery for 11.30. Doesnt make sense.

He doesn't call the surgery to reschedule until 11.33 hrs which indicates to me that something unexpected happened between 11 and 11.30 - resulting in Helen's death.

Good point.

But what was the tipping point if it happened spontaneously? They weren't in an argument as she was discussing venues with her friend (why has what they were discussing in reference to the venues not been clarified by the way - it would clear up the "lost" venues issue I'm sure.)

I can't see it was an accidental overdose because it's happened within half an hour. He would have assumed she had fallen asleep...

If he suffocated her, then he most definitely intended to kill her.

If he did intend to kill her that day, maybe he either thought the drugs would work faster, or that there would be more opportunity. He can't do it halfway through a conversation she's having with someone...

Maybe he was intending to do it earlier and then attend the appointment?

The other theory is that he was intending to do it at some point, had his cover story worked out and the moment he chose to do it was spontaneous. A mixture of the two, I guess.

I just don't know on this. I don't know if it was planned on this day or not. I figure he probably thinks the actual day is irrelevant because he will just make up a story about when she went missing and no one will find her to argue it. I honestly think he thought he could suggest she was depressed & anxious and left to be alone and everyone would assume she had committed suicide and not bother with the searches.

Sigh.

I wish he would just make an admission to what happened and how. Save her family, and his, all being put through the ringer.

(and help us sleuths out [emoji23])

 

[Stumpyaura]

Hi all, new here and brought by Helen to web sleuths. I followed her blog since the start and always loved a new posting from her. It is so true that as a reader you felt you knew her in a way that is different from others. It must be very comforting to her family and friends to know that people care enough to follow this so closely and have such considered discussions.

So much I want to comment on but my first thought was the 'not fit' for court... If he does have some sort of personality disorder, which it certainly does to me, it is very common to constantly divert attention towards themselves. This could be as an excuse to get people to look after him, making him the centre of attention, V to pay the victim or as a tool to avoid conflict and facing up to anything he has to take responsibility for. Feigning illness to avoid someone being too angry at you etc. This could just be him using it as his default mechanism to get people to feel sorry for him, gain some attention (woefully lacking to him now in prison) , an escape mechanism to avoid facing what he's done or a cynical ploy to show the jury he has wavering health. Or combination of all. I have had the misfortune of watching a good friend disentangle from a chronic narcissist and one striking thing when he got caught out was his immediate rush to 'work on' the people left who were vulnerable to his lies or important in some way to meaning he didn't walk away with nothing. I'm wondering if IS's target is now the jury. Hope this all makes sense. Will post more stuff later re observations about relationships that stand out for me.

 

[Florrie]

I wouldn't be surprised now by a sudden guilty plea. He's heard just the beginning of evidence against him, emotionally he cannot cope with it and the only way out of that is suicide or to end the court case with a guilty plea.




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[Tortoise]

I also had some late night musings ( not quite as far as 3am ) and am definately leaning now towards the theory that IS did not intend to kill Helen on Monday April 11.

My reason is the medical appointment.
This was booked for 11.30am. If IS had intended to murder on this day, then he would have done it earlier that morning, allowing time to move the bodies, then go to the appointment - giving him a great alibi out of the house, while Helen allegedly goes off to Broadstairs.

Instead, he has waited until at least 10.58 hrs before taking action - knowing that he then needs to depart at 11.15 - 11.20 latest to get to the surgery for 11.30. Doesnt make sense.

He doesn't call the surgery to reschedule until 11.33 hrs which indicates to me that something unexpected happened between 11 and 11.30 - resulting in Helen's death.

It's also possible that whatever plan he had didn't work because something happened that meant Helen didn't ingest the drug at the time he had planned her to. If you remember her mum's evidence, she had breakfast and then woke up 5 hours later at lunch time. If that was at say 1pm then she had to have had the tablet before 8am. On 11th April Helen was awake all morning, so she obviously hadn't been drugged early. So it's possible she made her own food or drink at breakfast and his plan was thwarted. Maybe he had to wait for elevenses to get her to take it.

I think he did have it planned that morning purely because he had that appointment, and he wanted that morning appointment as an alibi to say he was out of the house. It went wrong because he couldn't control Helen's morning intake of food/drink, perhaps he had planned to smother Helen, leave her in situ while he went out, then move her to the garage when he got back, so he was forced to move his appointment, and he couldn't get a new appointment to coincide with the time that Helen must have fallen into a drugged stupor, when her online activity suddenly ceased.

 

[Tortoise]

I wouldn't be surprised now by a sudden guilty plea. He's heard just the beginning of evidence against him, emotionally he cannot cope with it and the only way out of that is suicide or to end the court case with a guilty plea.




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Nice thought but it doesn't fit the profile IMO.

 

[MillyM]

The trial of Ian Stewart, accused of murdering wealthy Royston author Helen Bailey, has been postponed again today because he is ill.

Yesterday (Wednesday, January 18) those at St Albans Crown Court were told jurors had been sent home and the case had been adjourned as Stewart was too unwell "to listen to or concentrate on the evidence".


The case was adjourned again this morning (Thursday, January 19) and is expected to resume at 10.30am tomorrow (Friday, January 20).

Judge Andrew Bright QC, who is overseeing the trial, addressed jurors this morning and said: "You will notice the dock is empty. The defendant was examined by the doctor, who has concluded he is not fit to come to court today.

“Therefore we can’t make any progress as we hoped to.

“It’s one of those things. It’s no-one’s fault. We didn’t discover this until 9.20am this morning and by this time it was too late to let anyone know.

“There is no doubt he is genuinely ill, what’s more important is whether he is fit to come to court and whether we can make progress again.


“It’s only in exceptional circumstances that cases take place in the absence of the defendant, and those circumstances do not yet apply.

“We have lots of witnesses lined up to come tomorrow, and we don’t particularly want to write tomorrow off although at the moment it’s looking like we might have to.

“We’re going to work on the basis that he is well enough to come tomorrow, but I’m keen to stop you making an unnecessary journey.”

Judge Bright said he was going to list the case for a 10.30am start tomorrow (Friday, January 18) and unless jurors have a phone call from court staff by 9am tomorrow morning, they should set off to come to court.

He added: “We are hopeful having made some enquiries that we will know before 9am tomorrow whether he is coming to court or not.

“If I’m told tomorrow he needs the weekend to recover we may have to adjourn until Monday.

“I should know by the end of the day if not sooner, the prognosis for Mr Stewart.”

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/incoming/helen-bailey-murder-trial-postponed-12476387

 

[Florrie]

Yes, Tara's reporting has been fantastic.


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[Interested Bystander]

I've brought this up again because Royston to Cambridge is 13 miles. If his stitches were sore after a 13 mile trip, I wonder how he got on with the 240 mile Royston to Broadstairs round trip. And again, the 150 mile trip to Leatherhead and back to see Helen's Investment Advisor.

I think we can safely assume from this that IS was most definitely giving the impression to his sons that he was in more pain than he actually was.

From personal experience and also having had an operation that left a wound on my belly button from an incision, I'd be very surprised if he genuinely had trouble lifting dinner trays for any amount of time after the first day or two. There's also a huge difference between the actual skin-level wound being sore and the wound causing such pain to the detriment of mobility. It would be good to get clarity on this from a medical professional as I believe that this may be the only reasonable sticking point as to whether he was physically capable at the time.

Although I think there is more than enough circumstantial evidence to pale that query into insignificance, personally. But, if I were to cover all bases for a jury, I think I would be looking to have a medical professional discuss the operation he had and expected mobility following it.

Whilst I think without doubt he is guilty, with respect to his abdominal surgery it is very likely he has been told not to lift anything for 3 months. That is how long it takes for the internal surgery to fully repair. The skin repairs very quickly, usually within 7-10 days. Like you I have had abdominal surgery, twice in fact. The first time I found it difficult to walk for a week and was most definitely very sore for at least two weeks after that and on the second occasion I could still feel that I had had surgery after some weeks, again the skin had completely healed in a very short time. With abdominal surgery for bowel cancer he could well have had a fairly large wound externally and internally. I am unsure whether keyhole surgery is done for suspected bowel cancer but if it is the recovery time will be faster. I would give him the benefit of the doubt here.

He also seems to suffer from dysphagia which can be caused by many illnesses but if he is weak as well he may have an autoimmune condition known to cause this problem but unless we see the medication he is on it would be difficult to even guess whether that is the case. I believe the son/s referred to previous long term illness. I don't feel they would have a reason to be dishonest about this.

I do, however, believe he would make the most of any illness because it is in his interest to do so.

 

[Alyce]

Good point.

But what was the tipping point if it happened spontaneously? They weren't in an argument as she was discussing venues with her friend (why has what they were discussing in reference to the venues not been clarified by the way - it would clear up the "lost" venues issue I'm sure.)

I can't see it was an accidental overdose because it's happened within half an hour. He would have assumed she had fallen asleep...

If he suffocated her, then he most definitely intended to kill her.

If he did intend to kill her that day, maybe he either thought the drugs would work faster, or that there would be more opportunity. He can't do it halfway through a conversation she's having with someone...

Maybe he was intending to do it earlier and then attend the appointment?

The other theory is that he was intending to do it at some point, had his cover story worked out and the moment he chose to do it was spontaneous. A mixture of the two, I guess.

I just don't know on this. I don't know if it was planned on this day or not. I figure he probably thinks the actual day is irrelevant because he will just make up a story about when she went missing and no one will find her to argue it. I honestly think he thought he could suggest she was depressed & anxious and left to be alone and everyone would assume she had committed suicide and not bother with the searches.

Sigh.

I wish he would just make an admission to what happened and how. Save her family, and his, all being put through the ringer.

(and help us sleuths out [emoji23])

I agree re the venues. It would be very useful to know the full story re them as ISs evidence re Helen being upset re the venues does not match with Tracey's evidence that Helen was happy and upbeat re the wedding. I also would have expected ( hoped ! ) that if there had been any upset on Helen's part, that it would have come out in the evidence of Stuart Kye ( the widower she exchanged messages with on that morning ). Being as he was organising his own wedding then it might have been likely for Helen to throw in a comment about she was organising hers and what a pain it could be, losing venue options etc.

Perhaps, as you say, the drugs did not work fast enough. He would have known ( presumably ) from the previous week that the dosage he gave her had made her go to sleep almost immediately ( Helens conversation with her mother re the morning of April 6, where she says one minute she is having breakfast and the next she is waking up, five hours later ).
Perhaps he did the same this time, gave her something earlier that morning, but for whatever reason, it took longer to take effect. Then, just as he thought he would not be able to carry out his plan on that day, Helen suddenly got sleepy and he decided to act, at the last minute, hence the hastily cancelled appointment.


eta see Tortoise's post for a much better explanation !