GUILTY UK - Helen Bailey, 51, Royston, 11 April 2016 #6

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
Is this the photo? The first time I saw this photo my impression was that IS was a lazy slob. The hair is obvious but notice how his shirt buttons are not all done up, the collar is not ironed. He looks like he just got out of bed and threw on clothes that had been lying on the floor. Some one mentioned that towards the end that Helen felt she was living through "Men Behaving Badly".

I have always thought of IS as a covert narcissist, but I may be convinced he is more a psychopath as mentioned by others. He does seem well aware that that he does not operate like a normal human with the full range of emotions and drives. A covert narcissist would not have that self awareness.

And now to try and attached this photo - first time trying this so apologies if I stuff it up!

attachment.php


Ha...first time I saw the pic, I thought he looked like a removal man who had asked for a * cheeky * photo with Helen.
 
That Guardian article makes it crashingly obvious that the police suspected IS from very early on, doesn't it? As did I (like many here)- I found it puzzling and strange that the Facebook group set up to find Helen seemed very reluctant to raise the obvious question, or at least press IS to do a public appeal and/or reconstruction. I realise now that it must have been purely caution to avoid prejudicing the possibility of a trial.

It's also clear why

Police will frequently put together different theories of the case. As they investigate, evidence will tend to support one theory and not the others. This tells them which theory is likely correct.

In this case I guess the starting theories are

1. Helen ran off after a spat / was having an affair
2. Suicide
3. Random killer - e.g on dog walk.
4. IS done it.

I suspect 1 & 2 became tenuous very quickly.

3. is the only real contender but then we have that pesky cadaver dog evidence....
 
A bit more on the Recovery Dogs

These are obviously very highly trained dogs who specifically investigate crime scenes and look for bodies

The are not SAR dogs who follow scent, look for lost people etc.

Recovery dogs are trained to find specific things. So the blood dog looks specifically for forensic evidence. The Cadaver dog can find where a corpse has been present, from as little as 30mins from death. Cadaver dog often does not find forensic evidence. He tells us a story about the case.

Contrary to the belief of Gerry McCann, Cadaver dog does not hit on old fish, meat, a dead mouse etc.

Cadaver dogs specifically hits on dead human.

I know many have had the experience of a false hit at the airport - but this is not relevant

The first thing you have to understand is many of those dogs, especially in places like NZ and Australia, are food dogs not drug dogs, and these dogs are nowhere near as specialised as Recovery dogs. IIRC in NZ the food dogs outnumber the drug dogs by 4-1 Also, frequently the dog is indeed correct - so for example on my most recent trip a dog hit on my daughters backpack which contained no food. But it had contained an apple 2 days before. But all in all your airport experience is not analogous to Recovery dogs.

As in this case, the Recovery dog may not find the body or smoking gun forensics, but instead the dog tells us a story of the case.

Unfortunately the dog seemed to create a total mystery. i.e. a body was there but now it is not.

And if it is not at the Royston address, then it must have been taken away - but then why no hit on the car?

But the more I have looked in to the recovery dogs, the more I side with the handlers.

These dogs are exceptionally good at what they do.

But sometimes humans have trouble assimilating what the dog tells us into the overall case, because of a faulty assumption

So with Helen, Tia, Suzanne Pilley etc the clever dog is giving us the an insight into the story - but fallible humans still have to puzzle out what that means!

It's interesting that in the Pilley case, as in McCann, the dog tells the story of a body being moved with a hit on a vehicle.

In Helen's case the dog was telling us the body is under our proverbial noses.

I suspect the police were remiss in not realising the full significance of that - so they thought they'd watch and wait to see if IS would reveal where he dumped it.

Police can play a long game - but in hindsight they should have ripped that house apart.
 
Changing topic but I am finding the comments about IS' weight a bit personal and irrelevant. Lots of people (you may guess that this includes me!) are overweight but that doesn't make them slobs or indicate anything about their personality.

:yeahthat:

It's not as though there aren't plenty of things to criticise or mock him for, without resorting to shallow or childish comments about his looks...
 
It's not as though there aren't plenty of things to criticise or mock him for, without resorting to shallow or childish comments about his looks...

That said, I am still at a loss to understand what was "gorgeous" about him.
 
:yeahthat:

It's not as though there aren't plenty of things to criticise or mock him for, without resorting to shallow or childish comments about his looks...

Definitely, totally agree regarding comments about his weight. Many of us carry a few extra pounds without being the kind of monster IS is.

I have no judgement at all about his looks, in fact he looks like the kind of lovely cuddly man I am generally attracted to. The photograph doesn't give me the warning signals that some of you have picked up. All I see is a happy couple sitting on the stairs and delighted to be together.

As for the relationship coach I can't comment much expect to say she was probably as taken in as Helen. I would think she must wonder every day what red flags she might have missed but the answer is that there possibly weren't any. Look how difficult it has been for the Press to find anyone with a bad thing to say about him. On the contrary people are falling over themselves to say what a lovely man he is.... it least his in laws.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
More Helen for your weekend reading:

http://planetgrief.com/2012/10/16/muggles-or-me/

I think this one is really interesting as it counters one of the things that seems obvious about Helen - that she's sociable. She's clear she is not. I think this is one of the big pieces of her vulnerability. When you look at this entry - by which time she was apparently engaged to IS - the list of things she's lost and the continuing rawness and depth of her grief is really tragic.
 
One of the questions surrounding human cadaver dogs is how soon after death they can recognise a corpse, and how long a "fresh" corpse must remain in one place for a dog to detect that it has been there. In a study published last year, the forensic pathologist Lars Oesterhelweg, then at the University of Bern in Switzerland, and colleagues tested the ability of three Hamburg State Police cadaver dogs to pick out – of a line-up of six new carpet squares – the one that had been exposed for no more than 10 minutes to a recently deceased person.

Several squares had been placed beneath a clothed corpse within three hours of death, when some organs and many cells of the human body are still functioning. Over the next month, the dogs did hundreds of trials in which they signalled the contaminated square with 98 per cent accuracy, falling to 94 per cent when the square had been in contact with the corpse for only two minutes. The research concluded that cadaver dogs were an "outstanding tool" for crime-scene investigation.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...th-behind-the-crime-scene-canines-835047.html
 
I love this piece of art Helen's friend Jay created to honour Boris (publicly available)
fa3fef39e7e383e5a60547e5945a27bb.jpg


Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

That is lovely Jenspired; I hadn't seen that (quite new here) or realised Jay is an artist, if she is the same lady who is talking about Helen with the Royston dogwalkers. Do you know if it's available as a print? (My efforts didn't find,it although not being on FB can block some things.)
 
On the contrary people are falling over themselves to say what a lovely man he is.... it least his in laws.

I can only remember reading one comment from an in-law (his mother-in-law, I think).

Does anyone know if any of Diane's family have been attending court?
 
With regards to IS's work situation, the Times said a few days ago that he hadn't worked since 1998. Therefore has he relied on benefits or been a recipient of sickness pay? The reason I ask is that I didn't believe companies would pay that length of sickness pay?
(I was under the impression he received £2k per month which seems quite high for benefits).
 
This is what I thought too and posted about the other morning but got myself in knots and 'went round the houses' to explain, ha.

ETA: plus, if we change the She to I in those quotes that you posted, that's probably more like it.

I can't quote your original post in this one.

It is really very striking. Because he had no need to say it, it serves no purpose to his defence. So it jumps up and says 'look at me!'

Statement Analysis (SA) looks at what people say, and just as importantly, what they don't say when it is expected of them.

The other day I pointed out that we can tell there was no note simply because he said "my partner has been missing since Monday" Now we have the benefit of hearing him say he made up the note, but assuming this was a case with less evidence, it confirms how SA can be used.

Saying 'we were planning to get married' and then self-correcting to 'we are planning', should have told police straight away that he was involved. Maybe it did.

I was reviewing the 101 call again after watching the video I talked about yesterday, and I noticed that apart from when he was asked to give her name, he referred to Helen by name just once, and it's chilling to see where he used it, where he chose the appropriate moment to use it. (I'll also use this section of the call to highlight a few other points.)


And is she ever likely to be a victim of any sort of abuse that you know of?

No. I’ve, no, she’s a very strong person, be very hard to abuse Helen. She’d come back to you very strongly. She did, this is probably…she lost her husband well ‘bout just over 5 years ago and that’s how I met her, because I lost my partner and we met through a berea…bereavement group.

Oh I see, ok, um and

Just…

Sorry

…I don’t know if that’s relevant but I just thought you…should better tell you.

Oh yeah, I can pop that down, it all helps. Um it may seem a bit random, but is she likely to be involved or subjected to crime at all?

Did you say...I’m sorry I heard the word crime but I didn’t hear…?

Sorry. Repeats question.

No.

No, and could you describe her dog for me, if that’s alright?

It’s a miniature Dachshund. I mean it’s brown, it’s, the, it’s not, it’s not a wire hair it’s a smooth coat miniature Dachshund. So it’s pretty self-explanatory eh.

Is it male, female?

It’s male.

Does it wear a collar or anything?

Yes it does. It wears a yellow collar with her telephone number and my telephone number on it, well it does when she, when we’re out wal…well it doesn’t in the house but it does when we’re out yeah.

1. He places Helen's name next to the word abuse. We place words in a sentence to show how closely or otherwise we link them. For example I might say 'I went to the park with Fred' if I don't particularly like him or want to be associated with him, or 'Fred and I went to the park' if we're close. In this case it was an odd thing to say anyway 'be very hard to abuse Helen', I would expect him to say no and leave it at that, or if he wanted to expand on that, he could have said 'Helen wasn't a victim of abuse that I know about'.

2. This becomes even more sensitive because straight away (micro seconds) he links the question in his head to something entirely irrelevant. Helen lost her husband. He draws the operator to possibly entertain the idea that there could be a link between her husband and Helen being a victim of abuse. He's inserting someone else into the answer, to give himself distance from abuse.

3. Then he goes on to talk about the circumstances of how he was bereaved and met Helen, and to talk about himself. His life history is really not relevant to this call, it shows his priority on this call about Helen, and how he gets the operator to think about him. He knows it's completely irrelevant to her question and that's why he sheepishly says 'I don't know if that's relevant.' He creates a big big diversion so it is a very sensitive question, and he gives away that Helen was abused, by him. He's linked her with it and used her name.

4.Quite often asking someone to repeat the question is a ploy to give them thinking time before answering. It could also be that he didn't hear the question.

5. It's pretty self-explanatory eh? - except he hasn't given Boris' name once! Another clue to distancing and hence bringing another victim of his in to the spotlight. Admittedly the operator didn't ask his name but it would be the first thing I'd think of and it could help in the search, if I thought Boris was wearing his collar and tag.

6. 'Her telephone number' - it would have been appropriate here to have used Helen's name and said 'Helen's telephone number'. He doesn't use her name, which is unexpected and clear distancing, in a relationship with no problems between people in love and planning to get married.

And I'll also highlight another red flag for interest

And she said nothing to you then, was she leaving the premises at that time?

No, no, she was…I left her here.

I left her here. The word 'left' is unexpected and illogical language. You leave things behind that generally aren't alive, like keys or objects or things that can't move. 'Left' when it is used illogically, generally indicates there is information that has purposely been omitted. Such as why he would have 'left her here'..because she was dead.

Think about going out and leaving people or someone in the house - if you've said you were leaving them there it begs the question why you said that, there's an explanation missing, like you left them behind inadvertently. Left indicates possession or control. She was dead, and he obviously wouldn't want the operator to know that but his nanosecond choice of word is leakage. He should have said 'she was here'.
 
I can only remember reading one comment from an in-law (his mother-in-law, I think).

Does anyone know if any of Diane's family have been attending court?

Yes, that's the only comment I have heard. From his ex mother in law ...

Have not heard anything re court attendance - although to be fair, press have not been posting pics every day of attendees ( as they did with Becky Watts trial for instance )

I dont find it too odd that there are no adverse comments.
Am sure he was capable of presenting the image that he wanted people to see. And, apart from really close friends ( if he had any ? ) how much do others really know. Neighbours say hello, pass the time of day, school connections are mainly through each others children, he could have kept all of that type of contact at a minimum level.
 
Mail:

Due to a misunderstanding in our small devoted team, the Emma Bridgewater Snow Drop Mug was still in the webshop, but unfortunately it has been sold out.

I found the mug in another webshop. They were even less expensive. Let's keep our fingers crossed that their devotion includes their webpages!


:coffeews:
 
That is lovely Jenspired; I hadn't seen that (quite new here) or realised Jay is an artist, if she is the same lady who is talking about Helen with the Royston dogwalkers. Do you know if it's available as a print? (My efforts didn't find,it although not being on FB can block some things.)
Jay is one of the ladies who was due to meet her for lunch in May and jointly set up the Facebook "Where is Helen Page".

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the Boris atwork is available on her online shop: https://www.etsy.com/uk/shop/JayNolanLatchfordArt?ref=pr_shop_more

I'm sure a few of us would like a copy to remember poor loyal trusting Boris who didn't even get a walk on his last day on this earth [emoji22]

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 
Fascinating post Tortoise. And bad news on the devoted mug-keepers messing up, ZaZara!

Thanks for your post Lit Up, I muse a lot on the balance between the interest and intrigue of crime stories (which in some part is why we're all here) and the human factors of those whose fairly ordinary lives have been completely upended by awful and unexpected events. Having some of Helen's friends on here brings that even closer (and I do very much appreciate the way her friends on here have been understanding about the urge to sleuth contrasted with the horror of losing a loved friend). I had wondered about how I would behave if I went to court, as I hope to one day (not in this case) and you've given me food for thought.
 
More Helen for your weekend reading:

http://planetgrief.com/2012/10/16/muggles-or-me/

I think this one is really interesting as it counters one of the things that seems obvious about Helen - that she's sociable. She's clear she is not. I think this is one of the big pieces of her vulnerability. When you look at this entry - by which time she was apparently engaged to IS - the list of things she's lost and the continuing rawness and depth of her grief is really tragic.

I was just reading this link and something immediately jumped out:

"I have shunned them: ignored their endless calls, left their emails and letters unanswered, declined their invitations and hidden behind the front door when they have called round in an attempt to contact me, even clamping The Hound’s muzzle shut for fear he would bark and give the game away".

Helen's mum testified,

"What worried her most was that Ian's parents had come round and she was concerned about what they would think about her being asleep in bed. "I said that didn't matter, but I would have expected Boris to bark. Ian said Boris didn't bark."

His lies are a never-ending story.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
162
Guests online
2,428
Total visitors
2,590

Forum statistics

Threads
601,956
Messages
18,132,490
Members
231,193
Latest member
saglimtas20
Back
Top