GUILTY UK - Joanna Yeates, 25, Clifton, Bristol, 17 Dec 2010 #12

[aneurin]

Sorry, yes you are quite correct. However, the fact that more than a third of defendants are found not guilty does indicate that evidence which the CPS believes is strong enough for a charge turns out not to be strong enough for a conviction.

I think you're missing the point that something between 70% and 75% of defendants (the figures tend to vary from year to year) plead guilty. Most serious crimes do not result in a jury trial.

Or to put it another way; something like three-quarters of those charged with a serious criminal offence are guilty, and know they're guilty.

 

[PolkSaladAnnie]

Sorry, don't know the other site but seems we're on the same page here PolkSaladAnnie.

Indeed - and no worries; your thoughts were so acutely similar and as I posted the same (cringe - a few weeks ago), I thought you were headed here after it was suggested we join Websleuths a few days ago - before Page 2 of that thread was opened.

No-one owns a theory. When I wrote *my*, earlier - I should have claried that this is *my* opinion ... It is not fact ... but it makes the most sense to me.

BTW: nice to "meet" you, Deckard gr8 minds? Lol ... nevertheless this theory may be so; it may indeed be so...

 

[veggiefan]

Originally Posted by veggiefan:

"intruder sneeks in while she is gone and is lying in wait when she returns."

But what for? Nothing was stolen and she wasn't raped.

There isn't always a motive, other than perhaps the thrill of killing. Why was Jill Dando killed? Why was Milly Dowler killed?

However, while JY wasn't sexually assaulted, LE haven't ruled out a sexual motif.

For example, if JY had left the door on the latch while she collected the post, the person(s) who might have followed her and gained entry may have intended rape. She returned, but before things got under way CJ's car was heard on the gravel at around 9pm. JY screams, intruder panics and strangles her.

Only one of many possible theories, of course. And one must always remember that it is VT who has been charged, however unlikely a suspect he seems to some.

 

[Cherwell]

as I understand it "people flow analysis" is not about watching individuals without their knowledge. It is about analysing architectural plans to deduce where problems might occur when the building is constructed. For instance, insufficient width of corridor leading to a transport hub or fire exit, a pinch point if two sets of lifts face each other too closely, or a potential bottleneck in a shopping mall if the routes to two major department stores cross each other.

Before this case I had no idea that there were such things as "people flow analysts". So why do architects continue to design toilet cubicles so small? Surely it's obvious that if the door,when opening inwards, almost touches the toilet,then only very very thin people can get in and out easily. And yet they keep on doing it. It's only a bit of common sense that's needed, not a PhD. :doh:

 

[veggiefan]

I think you're missing the point that something between 70% and 75% of defendants (the figures tend to vary from year to year) plead guilty. Most serious crimes do not result in a jury trial.

No, I understand the point but I doubt that it is relevant, as there is no sign of VT being in the cohort of those who plead guilty.

His lawyer was legally obliged to tell him before his first crown court appearance of the reduction in sentence if he pleaded guilty from the outset. He chose not to do so.

He could plead guilty at the next hearing, or even change his plea after the trial has begun, but he is not stupid and will have realised that if he is guilty, he is only adding to the length of his sentence by not saying so.

 

[Cherwell]

I was wondering what point could have been picked up in 30 minutes in an undisturbed flat that GR didn't notice immediately that suggested an abduction to those who knew her intimately.

Reading back through earlier threads, I was most taken by the suggestion that they realised a snowboard or surfboard bag was missing. In other words, something horribly like a body bag.

there is one thing that niggles me. The keys.

Imo a man is more likely to set keys on the nearest flat surface rather than have the peace of mind to place them in a bag?

If he had to take them out of a bag, then it would be sensible to put them back in the bag when he had finished with them.

 

[PolkSaladAnnie]

Before this case I had no idea that there were such things as "people flow analysts". So why do architects continue to design toilet cubicles so small? Surely it's obvious that if the door,when opening inwards, almost touches the toilet,then only very very thin people can get in and out easily. And yet they keep on doing it. It's only a bit of common sense that's needed, not a PhD. :doh:

LOL LOL LOL!!! I about spewed my first robust cabernet of the evening - across the page! Oh Cherwell, how I agree! heh heh.

Here's a link: Tabak is no longer on their list of "key people" ... In fact not even mentioned. He who had "travelled to many other offices for his wisdom, brilliance and insight ..." hath been deleted! Actually, traverse the site. Gives greater dimension to his work. Note: feasibility studies would have definitely been performed prior to projects tendered. Such detail may have included cctv (to back up people flow estimates); invisible beams across passages, tunnels, escalators (ditto - to count people); filmwork, "clicks" ... all this information falls under "footfall".

Interesting stuff ...

http://www.burohappold.com/BH/PEO_KEY_List.aspx

 

[Deckard]

An excerpt from the thesis on how simulations could be validated.

There are many possible ways of collecting data about the behaviour of people, such as through paper/digital activity diaries, by using technical equipment (e.g. video camera’s or infrared sensors) or discreet shadowing of people (Teknomo et al., 2001; Kerridge et al., 2005, Tan, 2003, Arentze et al., 1997). Each method has its strong and weak points.
Collecting data about human activity behaviour using paper/digital questionnaires is rather obtrusive and puts a relative high demand on the participants; they have to record all their activities by themselves. There is a realistic chance that people forget to enter activities, albeit not deliberate (Ettema, 1996). The use of technical systems (e.g. video cameras) to record the movements of people is expensive (e.g. it requires a lot of
cameras to cover a whole floor). These systems also require a lot of post processing time (e.g. the data recorded using separate cameras have to be combined in order to track individuals across the whole floor). In addition, such systems, in particular video cameras, face strong issues of privacy. Furthermore, several sources in literature (Sundstrom, 1986; Martin and Bateson, 1993) suggest that the knowledge of being observed influences the behaviour of people (the so-called Hawthorne effect). The ideal
situation for collecting data about human movement would be when the participants do not know that they are being observed (Fatah et al., 2006). However, in reality this is hardly feasible, not only for operational reasons (i.e. how to track individuals across a space if they are not ‘equipped’ with a certain traceable feature), but also because of privacy reasons.
A relative new technology called RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) could be the key for a non-obtrusive way of collecting data about human movement and activity behaviour. Using this system, participants only have to carry a small device (so-called RFID tag), for example in their wallet, and the RFID system automatically registers their movements using so-called RFID readers (i.e. small radio receivers). During the
observation period participants themselves do not have to perform any additional actions besides performing their normal behaviour ...

 

[veggiefan]

Note: feasibility studies would have definitely been performed prior to projects tendered. Such detail may have included cctv (to back up people flow estimates); invisible beams across passages, tunnels, escalators (ditto - to count people); filmwork, "clicks" ... all this information falls under "footfall".

If an architectural project has not yet even been tendered, how would it be possible to train CCTV on people walking through this non-existent building?

I grant that it may have been done on studies of previous buildings, but the people who collect such data are simply technicians, not analysts with research degrees. Just as an architect doesn't go around placing heavy weights on roofs to see if they collapse (because they can look up the weight that various structures can stand in their literature), so a Ph.D in people movement will use standard data to calculate traffic flows in the particular project he or she is working on.

Sorry, but I'm sure you can see that I don't believe a Ph.D in people movement involves the personal use of spy cameras, any more than an expert on transport systems goes round recording train times. At that sort of level, it is all about analysis of existing data.

 

[PolkSaladAnnie]

Ee-yup! That's for sure; to me - most plausible. remove the ":what ifs" the "stranger abduction", et al - combined with what we knew until Tabak's charges were laid ... I believe the police have their man.

Look at Joran van der sloot - when Stefany Flores discovered J vdS had information about Natalie Holloway on his computer!!

He allegedly killed this young lass. CCTV footage caught JvdS AND Stefany entering. ONLY JvdS exited; he fled to Chile; captured and returned to face trial in Peru. WHY did this man kill stefany?

STEFANY DISCOVERED SOMETHING HE DID NOT WANT HUMAN TESTIMONY OVER, IMO. ... Joran? Fear of Loss. Don't forget, shortly prior to this holiday, he was extorting money from Beth Twitty. This money actually funded his holiday in Peru - whereupon he stumbled across a trusting young, wealthy, happy lass ... in a casino. MOMENTS after he returned to his flat with take-out coffee, it's believed Stefany was dead. A daughter of a property/construction tycoon in Peru. These things *happen* ...

I seriously believe Jo discovered something seriously hideous. He stood to lose "everything". Death, morbidly so, became a realistic option for the man. IMO

Sorry, don't know the other site but seems we're on the same page here PolkSaladAnnie.

 

[veggiefan]

A relative new technology called RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) could be the key for a non-obtrusive way of collecting data about human movement and activity behaviour. Using this system, participants only have to carry a small device (so-called RFID tag), for example in their wallet, and the RFID system automatically registers their movements using so-called RFID readers (i.e. small radio receivers). [/I]

I was quite persuaded by this when it came up elsewhere some weeks ago. But others have pointed out that RFID currently only works below a distance of less than 4 metres (indeed, my Freedom Pass only works up to a distance of less than one centimetre), and I'm not sure it would work at all with a wall in the way.

 

[PolkSaladAnnie]

An excerpt from the thesis on how simulations could be validated.

Interesting read, Deckard. Thank you ... Goes with the flow, eh?

 

[veggiefan]

I seriously believe Jo discovered something seriously hideous. He stood to lose "everything".IMO

But all you've suggested so far is that he might have been a voyeur. By and large, you don't even get so much as a few days in jail for such an offence.

I really do think you need to explain why he decided to commit the most serious crime in the book if you think it was committed to hide a relatively minor offence.

 

[PolkSaladAnnie]

Sorry, but I'm sure you can see that I don't believe a Ph.D in people movement involves the personal use of spy cameras, any more than an expert on transport systems goes round recording train times. At that sort of level, it is all about analysis of existing data.

I do respect your views, veggiefan. Needless to say, in my opinion, this man had an interest in watching people. Aside from that, doctors, lawyers, teachers (etc) are not immune to sinister (deeply hidden) and nefarious characteristics.

That he was *the only* tenant to move out (claiming disturbances) is also telling to me. He wished to distance himself from the scene of the crime. No one else moved out! CJ was there right up until he was arrested for messing about with this witness testimony. Since his release on bail - he's buried himself with friends. May he's learned the hard way not to be so controlling over this building and its tenants? Who knows. Having been granted bail - cops obviously want him to "keep it shut" and more than likes prescribed the same into his bail conditions ...

JMHO ...

 

[Deckard]

I was quite persuaded by this when it came up elsewhere some weeks ago. But others have pointed out that RFID currently only works below a distance of less than 4 metres (indeed, my Freedom Pass only works up to a distance of less than one centimetre), and I'm not sure it would work at all with a wall in the way.

You are right that passive RFiD systems which have no power supply of their own and rely on close proximity to a receiver only work on a few metre radius. However VT also explains that active systems are freely available which have onboard batteries lasting 5 years and with a range of several hundred metres.

He goes on to explain in the first page of his thesis how he enjoyed spending two weekends with a colleague in setting up the RFiD systems in situ. This would suggest to me an active knowledge of radio transmitted data rather than a purely academic one.

My point was never that he would use RFiD to track prey but that he had a good knowledge of using radio transmitted data as would be found in a covert camera setup. He collected the data from the RFiD system over two 3 month study periods to verify simulation models for his PhD.

 

[PolkSaladAnnie]

But all you've suggested so far is that he might have been a voyeur. By and large, you don't even get so much as a few days in jail for such an offence.

I really do think you need to explain why he decided to commit the most serious crime in the book if you think it was committed to hide a relatively minor offence.

1. Why do murderers murder? There is seldom reasonable explanation and I've detailed WHY I believe Tabak killed JO. He was caught red handed doing something horrendous. Peeping Tom and Stalking is *not* a "relatively minor offense".. Exactly what is really going on - is up for speculation. My guess is - he spied on her. That's devious, perverted and criminal. Not "minor". It had to be huge to kill her ...

2. No, I'm not suggesting he's inside for being a voyeur. I suggest her murdered Jo; that he was a voyeur (stalker) may be an *additional* charge. If this additional charge HAPPENS to be true - this means he murdered a witness. If deemed so - this makes his murder charges that much more heinous and serious. Life w/o parole - in not so many words. HOWEVER, these are my thoughts.

3. I daresay the decent, nice, kind, quiet ... Tabak ... holds some very nefarious, scary, devious and dark secrets.

I stand to be corrected and may be 100% wrong. I do NOT believe he's remanded on only what has been revealed to date. To believe that is naive. There's NO reason all the evidence should be released now. That would mean an unfair and tainted jury pool. All we can do is speculate on how/why charges are so severe.

NOT a stitch up ...

 

[kINGFISHER]

It is still not a hundred percent that she was killed in the flats. The police couldn't say at first but later concluded she was probably killed in either her flat or presumably VS, nothing certain.
But the fact that her flat was unusually tidy after the event would point to something having happened in JYs flat and tidied up by the murderer/s but was that the idea to make the police think that.
If we believe LL that he saw two people and JY, were they taking her somewhere else.

Cctv etc all the technical stuff being discussed on here maybe connected and the methods used at some point but I don't think it is the basis for the murder . Difficult as we don't know all the facts if they were voyeurs wouldn't they have this information recorded and the police would have picked it up. Did notice forensics were feeling along the top of JY outside front door at one point.

 

[notsure]

Maybe VT didn't know that JY was going to be coming home that evening. Even if he knew that GR had driven off alone, for all he knew, JY also went away to stay with friends/family. He had no reason to assume she would be coming home.

 

[Cherwell]

That he was *the only* tenant to move out (claiming disturbances) is also telling to me ....... No one else moved out!

I don't think this is true. There was certainly a video clip somewhere purporting to show some residents moving back in (two ladies). There are 7 flats and some of the occupants have never been publicly named.

But the fact that her flat was unusually tidy after the event would point to something having happened in JYs flat and tidied up by the murderer/s

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the "state" of the flat has ever been clarified. People have speculated both that it was disordered or unusually tidy, but it's just that - speculation.

 

[goldielox]

Check this out. It seems that if you use the Public Loo, in Asda, Starbucks, or anywhere, you could find yourself being the star feature on some shady internet site. After reading this I'm holding it in until I get home.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Voyeurism-Number-Arrested-And-Charged-Doubles-In-Four-Years-Since-Sexual-Offences-Act-2004/Article/201001215517264?lpos=UK_News_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_7

A clothing store near me had a spy hole in the wall between the stock room and female changing rooms. The manager and staff regularly used to indulge themselves with a good gawp.

A while back a guy who used to answer the phone at the BT Obscene Phone Call Bureau was done for being a perv - he was visiting stores with a mirror inside an open sports bag. He'd follow women to the checkouts, put the bag down right beneath them so he could use the mirror to look up their skirts.

The Canynge spy hole wouldn't surprise me, if there was one. There's obviously plenty out there "at" it.