I did give a break down a few pages ago of what I thought so far;
I'll go ahead and give you my 'Occam's Razor' view of this case. Presupposing that all the central evidence presented so far is relevant and that we take it at face value, there are a few inescapable 'features'.
1 - She refused Grey Beard's help, but she apparently got into PR's car willingly.
2 - PR possibly discarded a hammer, screw-driver and a lipstick from his car, yards from the spot she was last seen/known alive
I believe they drove to the anti-car park at the end of Beresford Avenue.
I cannot see ANY scenario where Libby staggers off drunk and ends up in the river. She would have to stagger slip and slide across 200 yards, before getting to a pitch black area obscuring the bank.
First, she's more likely in this scenario to be found next morning face down in the middle of the field somewhere. Second, she'd never negotiate the obstacles between the end of the path into the park and the river. She'd have to turn 45 degree left, negotiate a dog leg and avoid ending up in the abandoned boathouse compound, avoiding all the trees and brambles, climb UP THE STEEP BANK in the sheet ice, and fall into the river without leaving any traces in the mud or the reeds - or turn right, and stagger another 50 or more yards along the path, and then turn right and fall into the pond - (if she fell into the pond she would have been found on day one) - or turn left and negotiate the icy slipway up to the embankment, in pitch blackness. I tried this sober and completely lost my footing on this slipway in the dark and would have been snared in a bramble patch if the Police hadn't cleared them. By this point, you are blinded by the sharp lights of the factories across the river. If she fell into the river at any of these points I imagine A) marks in the mud (the river wasn't frozen) and B) traces of her fall through the reeds, even if she was swept away in a strong current.
The only other place really would be the drain at the back of her house, but they must have had a team of a dozen or so frogmen up and down that stretch in dinghies and wading in the water, using aquascopes. The one places they seemed to be seriously looking very early on was the drain, and I believe it was working on the assumption that she had fallen in drunk, either from the bridge on Beresford Avenue, or from the ten-foot round the back of her house.
So no, I cannot see anyone, no matter how wild and unkempt that park area appears, just falling down and lying undiscovered for three weeks and counting. It is very well trodden day and night all through the year. Between all the local kids and dog walkers there probably isn't an inch of the entire park area that ISN'T scoured and left undisturbed for long.
I rule out accident. I cannot see any scenario for that.
Therefore, I echo the Police - harm 'may' have come to Libby.
My problem with this case is it's transformation half way through. The case exhibits one set of characteristics, and then a completely different set. In Occam's Razor terms, the trail is definitely cold in the park. But like the Police, even though the trail is utterly cold, I believe the park is the thing. The key is in the park.
The screams and the running man, both fit in with the scope of the first half of the case, and also dovetails with PRs offending history. In that they fit the narrative established by PR's history and the activity around the bench, potential activity near her front door, potential implements discarded at the scene. (If PR had harmed Libby with these, of had just murdered her in the park, why would he discard these items that can be forensically linked to him BACK at the original scene?
However, once the narrative tries to move beyond the screams and the running man... there is nothing. At this point she could have been lifted out by helicopter, such is the nature of how suddenly and stone cold the trail goes.
The screams and running man both fit the narrative once we pre-plot PR's history in. Given the information of the pick-up at the bench, the offending near her house ten days earlier, the discarded implements, the admission she was in his car, given that information I WOULD GO LOOKING INTO THE PARK as my No1 place of suspicion that she came to harm in there. To then find out there was a scream heard, and a man seen running, that would instantly confirm to me that the narrative being plotted by all the evidence points so far was the correct assumption...
FUNDAMENTALLY:
* That PR went out of his way to pick Libby up in his car, take her to the park, and physically/sexually assault her.
Now here is where the major problem comes in. Here is where now this case is closed, and a case of a different nature is opened.
The case up to this point is predictable, it conforms to presented evidence and each stage has a natural lead or natural escalation to the next stage. Voyeurism; burglary; stalking; contact; assault; rape; murder; whether true or not, together they form a plausible narrative.
And then suddenly this randy young bloke who has carved a very clumsy clue riddled sexual criminal activity of a generic 20s something trying to lead a double life from his wife and kids; basically the guy was, apparently, an idiot in terms of conducting his affairs as a criminal mastermind, and seems to be on a course to be spoken to by the Police sooner or later...
..Is able to make a person/body disappear; not just disappear, but she disappears from the middle of a crime scene narrative. She is there, leaving signs and evidence, as humans do, in whatever seemingly innocuous ways...
Then she is simply not there.
I am not being flippant here, but my answer to this question is honestly, after weighing up all the available evidence, the likeliest scenario is LS was lifted out of the park by helicopter. OBVIOUSLY I am not actually suggesting an actual real life helicopter should now be the focus of the investigation. No. I mean simply that according to Occam's Razor helicopter is what it appears. In metaphorical terms the search party has followed a set of footprints in the deep snow in to the middle of a field where they just stop.
So I spin round in the paradox - I am convinced she WAS in the park.
She is NOT in the pond.
She is NOT in that part of the river between the two bridges (Sutton Road and Stoneferry)
So she is either, as people have suggested, far downstream, possibly in the estuary or even out to sea.
Or
She was taken out of the park by other means. For this I have to 'pencil in' an accomplice. I find it inconceivable with his offending history and methods that he was able to do this himself and evade forensics and CID for 3+ weeks.
So, yeah, sorry, went on a bit on stream of consciousness.
Boiled down I find these inescapable;
* She WAS in the park
* She IS NOW NOT in the park
* PR had an accomplice