My Theory:
Libby is turned away from nightclub, friends put her in cab to take her home (11.18pm).
Cab drops Libby off outside her house. She stumbles to the door but realised she doesn’t have keys or her phone. Upon discovering this she becomes distressed. She can’t get another cab for obvious reasons so decides to walk back to the bus stop/public area where she both feels safer and will be able to wait for the arrival of her friends. (11.29pm)
Libby sits at the bench, visibly distressed and vulnerable as she is heavily intoxicated, alone, freezing, left out and unable to go home or contact anyone. She cries. Motorist sees this from car and pulls over to check if she’s okay, potentially offering help/a lift. Libby explains why she’s upset and assures him she’s fine, probably would have declined help/lift as she would not feel comfortable getting in car with a much older man who’s a complete stranger. He drives off. (11:40pm)
Pawel had been scoping out area in car that night, probably left the house in seek of sexual gratification (in form of watching young girls or stealing items as he’d done before etc). His wife presumably was asleep as she would be a working mom of two, so he took this opportunity. He drives around, spots a vulnerable, heavily intoxicated, scantily-clad girl sitting on bench alone and impulsively pulls over and parks around the corner - a opportunity he’s never had, too good of one not to pursue in his mind. He acts on instinct without thought and approaches Libby, offering to “help” as an excuse but with no premeditated intentions. By this point more time had passed since grey beard’s interaction, she’s become increasingly distraught and cold and feels less threatened by the proposition of a ride back home (to wait) or back to the Welly (to pick up keys) from a younger, dwebby-looking guy. Pawel may have come across as harmless, possibly offering her a roll-up cigarette further suggesting he’s a normal, friendly guy not far from her age. He may have even mentioned that he’s “seen her round” or even could have lied saying he’s a student as well. He offers her the lift and she accepts getting into car. (12.09am).
Pawel drives Libby to her house, pulls up nearby, potentially offering to wait with her (for warmth). Whilst in the parked car he either makes a move on her causing her to decline and panic or she thanks him, opens the door to get out and he grabs her realising this is his one chance to act. Either way she screams, which may account for the bloodcurdling screams her neighbour heard. At this point she is locked in the car where he may have either forced himself on her there/ attacked her or driven off in a hurry to the nearest, most secluded area he could think off (Oak road playing fields). (12:30am could be slightly earlier though as I’m assuming time given was an estimate).
A sexual assault may have been continued/performed near or in the park which may account for the 15 minutes of screaming heard nearby. After which pawel panics and lashes out at Libby. He has the night to hide her, might have gone home at some point to pick up items that would assist with this.The cctv footage of witnesses walking past fields may show a guy scurrying away looking back behind him as he walked past a suspiciously behaving pawel in the distance acting oddly (presumably struggling to hide something that can’t be made out). The boy on the bike could potentially be a small-time dealer doing a drop off as he’s seen twice, they often ride bikes around at all hours of the morning. The couple could be drunken students walking home after their night out. (1:15-2:30pm).