Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[LastSeenWearing]

Presumably it has been established that the MP only had one phone with her.

My other half has a work phone as well as her own personal phone.

I would have thought someone working in financial services would need to have two different phones for privacy and security reasons.

I agree she would have two different phones. Her phone number is publicly shown on her mortgage business site. I don't think anyone would want their private number displayed so I would say 2 phones.

 

[ayrshireguy]

I agree she would have two different phones. Her phone number is publicly shown on her mortgage business site. I don't think anyone would want their private number displayed so I would say 2 phones.

Two phones or two SIM cards on the same phone.

But most likely two phones?

 

[sundaaaay]

"Mr Ansell explained that he and his wife had done the same walk for years. “And you see the same faces every single day, and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you know, you, you don’t know, they, they stand out like a sore thumb.” Link

It is interesting how NB’s morning routine is very predictable and if you lived nearby or your kids went to the same school, you would know where she can be found walking most mornings. She also posts photos of her walk on SM. But with such a narrow window of opportunity and with her dog with her, it's very hard to imagine how the event could unfold and that someone could get away with something like this without being noticed. My guess would have to be someone both she and her dog is familiar with. It also suggests someone who is very familiar with the area and who doesn't work typical hours as it occurred after 9am.

Personally I still lean towards something accidental and relating to water though, I wish we knew more about the river flow that morning. I live near a river and they can change dramatically.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

So the best GPS can do is record the location of the phone, collaborating that with the person's location need another bit of evidence to prove they had the phone in their possession at the time.

From what I can see, there is no Strava recorded for that day, but it might be privately recorded on the profile.

It is known NB had a Fitbit, without knowing the model it may well just be counting steps but some models are GPS capable as well or can use the GPS from the phone they are tethered with to record a route, but again nothing stated so far to say these were recording GPS location.

In the absence of the above, a phone doesn't necessarily keep any records of GPS location. Hence, it is not really clear what technical forensics will be able to discover about the location of the phone during that morning.

I'm genuinely surprised to hear that. I had always assumed the phone kept its own records somewhere in the logs.

Having said that, so many apps ask for permission to access your location these days, I'd be shocked if there isn't something on almost everyone's phone that is logging their GPS coordinates 24/7, whether they know about it or not.

 

[Pinkizzy]

Do you mean the heat maps where someone snaps from a location? I’m not sure as I don’t really know the app.

Yes, you can backdate hotspots by 6 and 12 months. Snapchat map can by used on desktops now.

 

[Mr X]

I agree she would have two different phones. Her phone number is publicly shown on her mortgage business site. I don't think anyone would want their private number displayed so I would say 2 phones.

So where is the other phone? Maybe not worth carrying two phones. One will do if you need to make an emergency call.

"Mr Ansell explained that he and his wife had done the same walk for years. “And you see the same faces every single day, and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you know, you, you don’t know, they, they stand out like a sore thumb.” Link

It is interesting how NB’s morning routine is very predictable and if you lived nearby or your kids went to the same school, you would know where she can be found walking most mornings. She also posts photos of her walk on SM. But with such a narrow window of opportunity and with her dog with her, it's very hard to imagine how the event could unfold and that someone could get away with something like this without being noticed. My guess would have to be someone both she and her dog is familiar with. It also suggests someone who is very familiar with the area and who doesn't work typical hours as it occurred after 9am.

Personally I still lean towards something accidental and relating to water though, I wish we knew more about the river flow that morning. I live near a river and they can change dramatically.

The PF bloke said it "would have been a foot higher" which presumably is either some flood water coming down or the tide coming over the Weir. There don't seem IMO to be other reasons for that.

There is a little tributary just upstream. One wonders if the tide does come in here and reverse the flow occasionally.

 

[Firstsnow4]

Yes, you can backdate hotspots by 6 and 12 months. Snapchat map can by used on desktops now.

What are your thoughts then?

 

[Pinkizzy]

Nicola Bulley's partner reveals movements when missing she vanished

Devastated Paul Ansell , 44, said he was 'at home drinking tea' when 45-year-old mortgage adviser and mother-of-two Nicola Bulley disappeared.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It looks like PA was at the school before he received a call about NB

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

I completely agree with you that the phone was most likely on the bench. More than anything I was just thinking about the slim chance that the phone GPS could have actually shown Nicola was in the river. That would be pretty conclusive data.

I’m guessing here, but I do know her phone was definitely on the bench as that’s where it was found.

But I’m wondering if her FitBit signalled to her phone that she was bobbing and circling in the river, according to the squiggles? Could be a stupid question, but just a thought…

 

[Pinkizzy]

Well, maybe Snapchat map can identify people around the river when she disappeared

What are your thoughts then?

 

[Normal Norm]

Slightly off topic, but ... I hope the local authority / landowner is going to do something about the paving slabs in front of the bench. It is just a matter of time before someone stumbles off the elevated middle slab shown in the photo here (Daily Mail), while the drop off the westernmost slab (shown in the Twitter video here) is simply an accident waiting to happen.

 

[PremierKissov]

I'm genuinely surprised to hear that. I had always assumed the phone kept its own records somewhere in the logs.

Having said that, so many apps ask for permission to access your location these days, I'd be shocked if there isn't something on almost everyone's phone that is logging their GPS coordinates 24/7, whether they know about it or not.

The police said they were sure the phone was "on the bench" at 9:20 so they must have *some* kind of data from the phone to tell them that.

 

[Davieson]

Nicola Bulley's partner reveals movements when missing she vanished

Devastated Paul Ansell , 44, said he was 'at home drinking tea' when 45-year-old mortgage adviser and mother-of-two Nicola Bulley disappeared.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It looks like PA was at the school before he received a call about NB

That's not what was previously said

 

[thirdrateamywinehouse]

So where is the other phone? Maybe not worth carrying two phones. One will do if you need to make an emergency call.


The PF bloke said it "would have been a foot higher" which presumably is either some flood water coming down or the tide coming over the Weir. There don't seem IMO to be other reasons for that.

There is a little tributary just upstream. One wonders if the tide does come in here and reverse the flow occasionally.

Its not an exact science, but using Floodmap it suggests you'd need 4m plus storm surge to get over the weir. That would equal the 1953 North Sea Flood.

 

[zellner]

I may have missed this as so much to read through, but is it known how/why the school was alerted and then called PA re Willow and NB's fone? Would the phone have been locked by this time? Did someone at the scene (eg a parent from the school) recognize Willow and know NB from the school gate? Is the time of this call from the school to PA public knowledge?
Quote from Ch5 interview transcription
"Paul - Yeah, lunchtime, go to the gym. We're (or were?? were is typical of Yorkshire accent, not Lancashire), going to leave, and then the phone rang and it was the school, and it was the receptionist at school and she said 'Mr. Ansell, it's a bit of a weird one, but we've found Willow and Nikki's phone on the bench and the harness halfway down the embankment on the floor."

My understanding from a previous WS thread is that the person who found the dog and tied it up was the elderly owner of campsite and she contacted her daughter in law (who also runs the campsite) as thought it belonged to a mother at the school that the daughter in law knew/knew of. FB shows her as a friend of NB. Presumably daughter in law did recognise whose dog is was and phoned school, sensible as it would have access to relevant contact details. Sounds like a sensible and plausible response to finding the dog.

 

[lazysloth]

The police said they were sure the phone was "on the bench" at 9:20 so they must have *some* kind of data from the phone to tell them that.

The step counter in an iphone uses the accelerometer so I imagine they are able to ascertain that the phone was moving until becoming stationary at 9:20. Perhaps they've also established the 9:33 am timing (witness moving/picking up phone) from this data too.

 

[steelo]

Of course, but you then bring a dog into the equation and it becomes less likely. The dog would go crazy!

It's incredibly difficult to assume how any dog would react in any given situation unless you specifically know the animal.

 

[mrjitty]

See my post above, no chance of that happening. I'm sitting on a bench and Strava maps show me taking a dip in the canal and walking in circles. GPS tracking is not that accurate, especially when stationary as it can't smooth out the waypoints into an average route.

This is a good point, but as there was a data connection in progress (Teams meeting) this will give them a second source of location data. As with your example, knowledge of where the phone was found, where she was seen etc gives multiple known data points so they can make inferences of when the phone was moving, and when it wasn't.

There may be additional cues - e.g wakes ups of the homescreen etc

At the end of the day, exactly what they can recover is hard to know, as we don't know what apps she had, and what any of them might have logged.

But personally, due to that data call, i believe there is a good chance they have at least as rough 'map' of her walk.

 

[jk1874]

It's incredibly difficult to assume how any dog would react in any given situation unless you specifically know the animal.

Indeed, as it is with how a human would react to such trauma. It also makes it less likely for her to be attacked when she has a dog, because any 3rd party would not know the reaction of the dog, even if it started barking, that brings massive attention to the area.

 

[thirdrateamywinehouse]

Its not an exact science, but using Floodmap it suggests you'd need 4m plus storm surge to get over the weir. That would equal the 1953 North Sea Flood.

It also last rained before her disappearance on the Sunday 22nd Jan.