Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[PremierKissov]

This is a good point, but as there was a data connection in progress (Teams meeting) this will give them a second source of location data. As with your example, knowledge of where the phone was found, where she was seen etc gives multiple known data points so they can make inferences of when the phone was moving, and when it wasn't.

There may be additional cues - e.g wakes ups of the homescreen etc

At the end of the day, exactly what they can recover is hard to know, as we don't know what apps she had, and what any of them might have logged.

But personally, due to that data call, i believe there is a good chance they have at least as rough 'map' of her walk.

From the police press conference on 3rd February :-

Reporter - How was the phone known to be on the bench at 9:20 exactly?

Superintendent - Through telephony enquiries that we've done, relative to the phone itself, rather than through a witness.

 

[CSIAngus]

I agree she would have two different phones. Her phone number is publicly shown on her mortgage business site. I don't think anyone would want their private number displayed so I would say 2 phones.

I gave up my personal phone when given a work phone as most people phone me not the other way round, and it automatically switches to wifi when at home. If work has a liberal policy on phones then she didn't need to have 2. JMO

 

[Firstsnow4]

Indeed, as it is with how a human would react to such trauma. It also makes it less likely for her to be attacked when she has a dog, because any 3rd party would not know the reaction of the dog, even if it started barking, that brings massive attention to the area.

That’s a very good point. So if foul play then it must be someone known to her and local. Not just a random due to potential of the dog making noise. IMO.

 

[mrjitty]

The step counter in an iphone uses the accelerometer so I imagine they are able to ascertain that the phone was moving until becoming stationary at 9:20. Perhaps they've also established the 9:33 am timing (witness moving/picking up phone) from this data too.

This stuff may not be logged.

e.g i use my watch for steps, and if my watch runs out of battery, i don't get the missing steps to my phone until i charge it up again. Conversely, if i run a step counting/activity type app on my phone, like Runkeeper, then my whole route is logged.

 

[jk1874]

I gave up my personal phone when given a work phone as most people phone me not the other way round, and it automatically switches to wifi when at home. If work has a liberal policy on phones then she didn't need to have 2. JMO

Dual sim phones are so common as well.

 

[PeggyHenry]

"Mr Ansell explained that he and his wife had done the same walk for years. “And you see the same faces every single day, and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you know, you, you don’t know, they, they stand out like a sore thumb.” Link

It is interesting how NB’s morning routine is very predictable and if you lived nearby or your kids went to the same school, you would know where she can be found walking most mornings. She also posts photos of her walk on SM. But with such a narrow window of opportunity and with her dog with her, it's very hard to imagine how the event could unfold and that someone could get away with something like this without being noticed. My guess would have to be someone both she and her dog is familiar with. It also suggests someone who is very familiar with the area and who doesn't work typical hours as it occurred after 9am.

Personally I still lean towards something accidental and relating to water though, I wish we knew more about the river flow that morning. I live near a river and they can change dramatically.

We are in a similar neighbourhood and most dog walkers are familiar with each other and the dogs. You soon notice a stranger or a new dog. However, you do occasionally see new people and dogs who are visiting and you don’t question it.
If a female dog walker here disappeared on the general circuit, we would all be shocked and retrace where we were at that time etc. but most people are busy in their daily lives snd would probably struggle with memory .. as you tend to see quite a few people over the course of a walk. The problem is also that most people were led to think a tragic river accident occurred … if they been immediately asked to recall their dog walk and who and what they saw that morning it would’ve been easier.

 

[Cluella DeVille]

I completely agree with you that the phone was most likely on the bench. More than anything I was just thinking about the slim chance that the phone GPS could have actually shown Nicola was in the river. That would be pretty conclusive data.

Phone on the bench, GPS data shows phone is not moving. NB in river, GPS data shows phone is not moving. GPS monitors movement of a phone not a person...that's pretty conclusive data right?

 

[jk1874]

That’s a very good point. So if foul play then it must be someone known to her and local. Not just a random due to potential of the dog making noise. IMO.

Yes and because it's in the middle of nowhere, you would assume some knowledge of the area. If that was the case though, then the locals would have placed another local around the scene at that time.
I still think the falling into the river is most plausible, but other scenarios are possible under certain circumstances.

 

[SpursGyal]

I may have missed this as so much to read through, but is it known how/why the school was alerted and then called PA re Willow and NB's fone? Would the phone have been locked by this time? Did someone at the scene (eg a parent from the school) recognize Willow and know NB from the school gate? Is the time of this call from the school to PA public knowledge?
Quote from Ch5 interview transcription
"Paul - Yeah, lunchtime, go to the gym. We're (or were?? were is typical of Yorkshire accent, not Lancashire), going to leave, and then the phone rang and it was the school, and it was the receptionist at school and she said 'Mr. Ansell, it's a bit of a weird one, but we've found Willow and Nikki's phone on the bench and the harness halfway down the embankment on the floor."

Nicola is member of the PTA at the school ( https://primarysite-prod-sorted.s3....cfcb8f495523/pta-meeting-minutes-13.01.23.pdf ) So many people with connections to the school, who don't know Paul would recognise her, and see it as a way of getting someone to contact her family ASAP.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Nicola is member of the PTA at the school ( https://primarysite-prod-sorted.s3....cfcb8f495523/pta-meeting-minutes-13.01.23.pdf ) So many people with connections to the school, who don't know Paul would recognise her, and see it as a way of getting someone to contact her family ASAP.

Yeah because I’d read in several places that the daughter in law of the lady who found Willow knew PA and is his FB friend. Maybe they just didn’t have his number and thought school would - would need his details for the kids in case of emergency etc JMO

 

[Quietey]

I stand by the work of the police and believe that everything they do, and the information they do and don't release is for a reason. I also believe in their expertise, or that they call in expertise where needed. I don't think any feasible line of enquiry will be overlooked or ignored.

In the absence of evidence I still don't know which way I think. Previously it was river accident, now for me seeming less likely in the absence of any evidence coming forward. Leaning now more towards abduction, that could change again. @Woodburnbay #931 mentioned options for exiting a person via the caravan site. It seems to me there are other secluded/non CCTV options if not taking a footpath route in such a rural location.

Some random thoughts - all just MOO - are:

• The river search wasn't ever just a search for a body but a search for any other evidence to back up another line of enquiry. The high profile of the river search could have been to take focus away from other lines of enquiry.
• Stalker or threat history - not something that has been disclosed or would be disclosed. Close family could be aware of but told not to disclose. Speed of police response, and PA's concern, could be linked to history not made public.
• Willow - could have been deliberately distracted or temporarily restrained (even drugged?) in a planned abduction.
• Use of threat/weapon to get a person out of an area quickly and quietly seems all too feasible to me.

 

[lazysloth]

This stuff may not be logged.

e.g i use my watch for steps, and if my watch runs out of battery, i don't get the missing steps to my phone until i charge it up again. Conversely, if i run a step counting/activity type app on my phone, like Runkeeper, then my whole route is logged.

It gets logged automatically by the 'Health' app which comes as standard in any iPhone. This is why you are able to see your daily/weekly/monthly average step counts etc. I'm only guessing this is what they are using but I don't think it would be too complicated and makes the most sense.

 

[Mr X]

Its not an exact science, but using Floodmap it suggests you'd need 4m plus storm surge to get over the weir. That would equal the 1953 North Sea Flood.

The PF bloke said it would have been a foot higher. This can easily be verified but I wonder why it was a foot higher.

Either way it must have involved extra flow.

 

[abovethestorm]

I stand by the work of the police and believe that everything they do, and the information they do and don't release is for a reason. I also believe in their expertise, or that they call in expertise where needed. I don't think any feasible line of enquiry will be overlooked or ignored.

In the absence of evidence I still don't know which way I think. Previously it was river accident, now for me seeming less likely in the absence of any evidence coming forward. Leaning now more towards abduction, that could change again. @Woodburnbay #931 mentioned options for exiting a person via the caravan site. It seems to me there are other secluded/non CCTV options if not taking a footpath route in such a rural location.

Some random thoughts - all just MOO - are:

• The river search wasn't ever just a search for a body but a search for any other evidence to back up another line of enquiry. The high profile of the river search could have been to take focus away from other lines of enquiry.
• Stalker or threat history - not something that has been disclosed or would be disclosed. Close family could be aware of but told not to disclose. Speed of police response, and PA's concern, could be linked to history not made public.
• Willow - could have been deliberately distracted or temporarily restrained (even drugged?) in a planned abduction.
• Use of threat/weapon to get a person out of an area quickly and quietly seems all too feasible to me.

Also remembering a search on local cases @todders mentioned in an earlier thread. I'd be nervous, too, with that being the case. IMO, JMO, MOO.

Found Deceased - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #2

12 month crime stats for the area using school postcode (pretty much centre of the village) Crime In My Area - Interactive UK Crime Map Not exactly a crime hotspot

www.websleuths.com

 

[CoverMeCagney]

See my post above, no chance of that happening. I'm sitting on a bench and Strava maps show me taking a dip in the canal and walking in circles. GPS tracking is not that accurate, especially when stationary as it can't smooth out the waypoints into an average route.

I was tracking my friend doing the London marathon, and was most alarmed to see her in the Thames.

 

[thirdrateamywinehouse]

The PF bloke said it would have been a foot higher. This can easily be verified but I wonder why it was a foot higher.

Either way it must have involved extra flow.

Exact data for the day:
2023-01-27,0.440,0.461,0.480
4cm higher than lowest level at St Michaels.St Michaels river monitor

 

[mrjitty]

It gets logged automatically by the 'Health' app which comes as standard in any iPhone. This is why you are able to see your daily/weekly/monthly average step counts etc. I'm only guessing this is what they are using but I don't think it would be too complicated and makes the most sense.

Yes we've discussed this before.

1. We don't know what native or installed apps might come in to play - including her interacting with teams (even if not speaking). e.g she might have checked other screens, unlocked phone etc.

2. I don't use "health" but i just checked and you are correct, it has my steps logged in 10min intervals even though i never set it up. So that might well be of use?

3. AFAIK we don't know what phone/model she had?

 

[thirdrateamywinehouse]

Exact data for the day:
2023-01-27,0.440,0.461,0.480
4cm higher than lowest level at St Michaels.St Michaels river monitor

River levels from then till yesterday.
Date lowest Highest (in M)
2023-01-27,0.440,0.461,0.480
2023-01-28,0.430,0.444,0.448
2023-01-29,0.450,0.505,0.530
2023-01-30,0.450,0.483,0.500
2023-01-31,0.430,0.449,0.480
2023-02-01,0.430,0.437,0.460
2023-02-02,0.457,0.460,0.462
2023-02-03,0.478,0.480,0.483
2023-02-04,0.426,0.427,0.427
2023-02-05,0.418,0.422,0.425
2023-02-06,0.413,0.415,0.417
2023-02-07,0.390,0.402,0.410
2023-02-08,0.380,0.391,0.400
2023-02-09,0.360,0.385,0.400
2023-02-10,0.360,0.376,0.400

 

[Mr X]

Guagemap is interesting. There is a levels gauge very close to the site.
What piqued my interest is that the levels bob up and down a bit.







IMO there may be extraction of some sort. Is the nearby lake fed from the river by a pump of some sort with an underwater intake?

Same data but without the date moved to today. Regular up and down this does not look like rainfall but could IMO be tide or extraction / sluice activity.

 

[CSIAngus]

That’s a very good point. So if foul play then it must be someone known to her and local. Not just a random due to potential of the dog making noise. IMO.

Would anyone react to the sound of a dog barking coming from an area used by dog walkers?