Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[CSIAngus]

I'd be grateful if a fellow WS would point me in the direction of a source for the known facts as reported by Police surrounding the point at which she had vanished, i.e. the finding of the phone at 9.33am precisely, tying up Willow with string, reporting to the school, including who these events involved. There is something just not right about this window in this case. I've looked back through media reports but cannot find a single one that pulls every detail together in one timeline. Thanks in advance.

 

[Coach]

I have been reading various comments about the morning Nicola went missing. Morning routine will be different in many households - I think it is unlikely that any two households are the same. There will be some who are meticulous and have set routines which are almost timetabled to the minute, others will experience the morning rush and chaos, breakfast, children to get ready for school, packed lunches, gym kits, homework in bags, parents getting ready themselves, so many factors and things to do and mums (and dads) often have to multitask doing several things at once. Just because things seemed a bit more organised that particular morning does not necessarily mean it is connected - it could be simply a case of N getting up earlier or P getting up later. During the interview it sounded like they seem to go down separately (I take it downstairs to the kitchen) at different times but that may well happen it lots of households. *modsnip*When DW asked him what she was like, it almost seemed like he was surprised by the question so I do wonder how much prep time they allowed before the interview. There’s no knowing how people will react in such agonising and tragic circumstances like these - I can‘t remember if one of the first words to describe her was fun but I suppose I was probably thinking that he would first say how much he loved her (soulmate, love of his life), how much the children love her, possibly breaking down. He is possibly in shock, trying to keep it together for the girls and struggling, possibly not sleeping etc. I pray they find her safe and well but I do think that the most likely is the river. If this is the case, I hope they find her as it would at least bring some comfort and closure in ending the uncertainty. It is a true saying though that no one really knows what goes on behind closed doors. I have friends and family who in years gone by have showed the most happy family households ever on the exterior but a completely different world in reality to the happiness others believed them to have. Some spend money they don’t have, live beyond their means to keep up with others and have significant mounting debts. I have friends who have children who have ‘make or break‘ holidays at Christmas (spending significantly) in last ditch attempts to reconcile and I know some who are only still together until their children are a bit older.

 

[LaLaLadot]

Because it’s the countryside - the whole area is a CCTV blackspot - CCTV is incidental at gates

Would NB be on CCTV at school car park and in car along her driving route to the school? Would a modern car have dash cam footage for a minute or so after switching off?

 

[ginnyw]

Just a heads-up that if anybody wants to read the article on the NB investigation in today's Sunday Times, they are actually offering a month's free digital subscription (just taken one out).

 

[4441]

Sorry to hear what happened to you, sounds awful! I think with the presence of the dog and no obvious sign of a third party or struggle, it looks like an accident.

I definitely agree that an accident is by far the most likely scenario but there is always that slight chance that she was unlucky enough to meet a creep.

The police focus on the river is the most sensible use of resources and hopefully she will be found as they keep expanding the search area. I also think it’s good for them to have an open mind just in case it’s something more nefarious.

 

[PeggyHenry]

I've put a link in one of my more recent posts to a recommended personal safety alarm. However, when I once went on a course which showed you how to defend yourself in an attack, they taught me to grip a bunch of keys between my fingers, with two of them sticking out. I tend to do this if I'm out late at night.

Thanks Ginny .. very useful

 

[LaLaLadot]

I've put a link in one of my more recent posts to a recommended personal safety alarm. However, when I once went on a course which showed you how to defend yourself in an attack, they taught me to grip a bunch of keys between my fingers, with two of them sticking out. I tend to do this if I'm out late at night.

If walking remotely, it can be better to have an app that calls a designated phone number for police or your person of choice. I had one when there was a guy hiding in bushes on my walk doing sex acts. It sent my location by SMS and activated a call. I didn't have to dial it, I could shake the phone to activate. I forget which app it was. An alarm is perhaps more of a risk in a remote area.

 

[Beesfield]

One of these apps is Hollie Guard – Personal Safety App Hollie Guard.

 

[mrjitty]

Outside of the place where pF did his interview for Channel5 was parked a bright red van.
Also interviewed was dude that paid 56k for side scanner and tried using it on river.. his company vans are all bright red.
Internet chose not to add 2 and 2 and arrived at number banana..

Imagine being the family of a missing person when this monster of malice comes after one? There is zero accountability and a thinly veiled anti police theme running through all of it...

For example.
Dr Graham Hill.
Criminologist & Former Senior Detective (SIO). Research Fellow says this and a whole lot more besides. He is watching it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624081419852042243

Great comments from Hill

The contrarian pundit class add exactly zero value while undermining confidence in the investigation.

Those of us who followed the Pistorius trial in depth are well aware of this pundits ability to enter the debate without knowing basic facts of the case and even promote the version of a now convicted murderer.

 

[guiser]

There was a poster on that case who basically said, almost to the nearest square metre, where AKs body would be found…and the date it would be found.
he was absolutely spot on.

Yes.
Denton Island close to where the Ouse meets the sea at Newhaven.

 

[Pinkizzy]

Another photo of the weir. This one is on the wyreside farm caravan park website photo stream .

View attachment 402339
(I cropped the image down a bit)

It's not a very big Weir. If the levels were a foot either way up or down it would make a big difference to how the Weir would behave in terms of floating objects going over it. I still think there could be hydraulic towback trapping things underneath the waterfall.



That's interesting. It looks like a pumping station. Picture from rowan water website View attachment 402342

Its a water sampling station

 

[tallmansix]

Repeated from an earlier thread….work out the mathematical probability of:
-Falling while walking (multiplied by)
-the result of that fall ending up in the river (multiplied by)
nobody hearing a cry fro help or seeing it occur (multiplied by)
-nobody seeing NB in the river (multiplied by)
-NB not been found in the river after 15 days of intense searching.

I can't give an exact answer but that answer is definitely greater than zero and therefore can and will happen.

Each of your statements has some circumstances which make them more probable:

-Falling while walking - Falling on a steep slope near a river is a greater probability than on a normal path, NB was near a steep slope
-the result of that fall ending up in the river - NB last known location was adjacent to a river so chance much higher than anywhere else
nobody hearing a cry fro help or seeing it occur - Was in a secluded area, nobody nearby in roughly 15-30 min period. Cry for help not guaranteed when hitting freezing water. Would somebody cry for help when nobody around to hear anyway?
-nobody seeing NB in the river - nobody looked for at least an hour maybe more
-NB not been found in the river after 15 days of intense searching - I can find many examples where it is 2+ months later

 

[Mr X]

I can't give an exact answer but that answer is definitely greater than zero and therefore can and will happen.

Each of your statements has some circumstances which make them more probable:

-Falling while walking - Falling on a steep slope near a river is a greater probability than on a normal path, NB was near a steep slope
-the result of that fall ending up in the river - NB last known location was adjacent to a river so chance much higher than anywhere else
nobody hearing a cry fro help or seeing it occur - Was in a secluded area, nobody nearby in roughly 15-30 min period. Cry for help not guaranteed when hitting freezing water. Would somebody cry for help when nobody around to hear anyway?
-nobody seeing NB in the river - nobody looked for at least an hour maybe more
-NB not been found in the river after 15 days of intense searching - I can find many examples where it is 2+ months later

I think people assume accidental drowning is noisy. Sadly it is very quiet.

IMO she is in that River close to where she fell in.

 

[SuperEye]

Ok thanks .. will investigate getting hold of thTy

When I lived in London, I always carried a small can of hair spray in my bag.

 

[Lincoln34]

Going back to basics a little bit i suppose ...

If Nicola fell in the river , having full trust in the initial police response and the SAR teams on site within hours ( as far as i recall ) , further corroborated later on by PF and his team , we can confidently say that, having not found her up to a mile upstream from the bench area and ,at the very least, down to the weir , for the fall in the river scenario to have realistic sense it kinda follows that:

A) She fell in the water and was transported by current past the weir very quickly

B) She fell in the water much closer or even past the weir , for the initial searches to have missed her ( and for this we need context as to why she would even be ther in the first place , presumably with Willow left in the field)

C) The SAR teams and PF's team have simply been unable to locate her in that stretch of river (very unlikely given the scale , length of the search and equipment used )

If none of this apply , fellow sleuthers , we are left with asking ourselves if it's easier to stage a disappearance/fake death or for an abductor/aggressor to carry out their deed and remove Nicola from the scene/area . Willingly , unwillingly or forced to.
And work your way from there .

All of this in my view , in my opinion .

I know nothing about sewage, or the river Wyre itself but thought the link below was interesting as it involves flooding and centres on St. Michael’s. I’m not sure if it has any relevance but it is the same village -

Villagers' disgust with raw sewage 'bubbling up' into their homes

Raw sewage has bubbled up into homes and out on roads in St Michael’s-on-Wyre, where residents have called for bio hazard warnings to flag up the dangers

www.lancs.live

 

[ginnyw]

I think people assume accidental drowning is noisy. Sadly it is very quiet.

IMO she is in that River close to where she fell in.

I go through phases of thinking this but then I remember how extensive and detailed the search of that area has been - if she was close to where she fell in, surely either the police divers or Peter Faulding would have found her? JMO.

 

[pineapple23]

The police focus on the river is the most sensible use of resources and hopefully she will be found as they keep expanding the search area. I also think it’s good for them to have an open mind just in case it’s something more nefarious.

Even if she is found in the river, they will have to try to establish whether it was an accident and imo there will always be the possibility that there was a chance argument and a push.

 

[ShireChe]

Perhaps there simply isn't much CCTV to release. We know the Garstang Rd/Blackpool Ln entrance is a CCTV blackspot, and it doesn't appear Nicola was on CCTV further down the riverbank, either. That only leaves the short walk from the school to the river.

I have been thinking the same, but then I do wonder if they didn't manage to catch NB on CCTV why are they so confident that a third party would have been seen on CCTV

 

[suzyjackson]

IMO she may have left her keys in the car as it was parked in a secure area (school). This would make sense in a way to cut out the risk of losing them when interacting with the dog.

Do people really leave their cars open with the keys in and go for walks. Tbh I find that hard to believe
I don't think it's been confirmed where the car was parked yet. I live in a similar area with many village primary schools and have not seen one with a secure car park. The nature of schools is that vehicles are coming and going all day and school car parks (if there even is one) are open all day

I know inner cities might be different

 

[bringmeacupoft]

Do people really leave their cars open with the keys in and go for walks. Tbh I find that hard to believe
I don't think it's been confirmed where the car was parked yet. I live in a similar area with many village primary schools and have not seen one with a secure car park. The nature of schools is that vehicles are coming and going all day and school car parks (if there even is one) are open all day

I know inner cities might be different

This was in respect of leaving house keys in the car, not car keys.