Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[cottonweaver]

In my opinion she would not have left the phone on the bench if she was moving far away from it - so if she went in accidentally I would expect it to be a spot near the bench.

presumably yes - but nobody knows do they?

 

[Cranky]

I was just messing around on google maps wondering what the big wall at the back of Rowanwater was made of. Possible alternative exit?

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Very sensible response, ever since the contractor with the sonar checked the river and said she isn't in there, people have been quick to jump to all sorts of elaborate scenarios. Regarding the buoyancy you mention, I wonder what you think of her outfit that day making her more buoyant. NB is both small and slim and she is wearing a long quilted jacket (to her knees) which probably has a lot of air pockets which would take a while to saturate, so I wonder did the jacket help remove her from the scene within minutes of falling in.

Down floats so I don’t see how that would help her sink.

It’s feasible that wet jacket may have wrapped up round her face though and added to a feeling of shock and panic.

A recreation of what she was wearing “falling in” to water to see how her clothing reacted, would be helpful including whether stuff came out of her pockets.

 

[pineapple23]

I do understand that the river is flowing which is obvious. Also i understand how buoyancy works. However her body is not buoyant when/if she drowned, it would fill with water and sink. She would only become buoyant when her body released gasses.

If she banged her head and initially just stunned herself, might she not float for a while due to air trapped in her clothes? Till eventually going under.

 

[Furore]

There are a lot of posts saying how deep the water was where she may or may not have gone in.

Prove that the water was high on that day and at that time?

"He [Peter Faulding] shows me a picture on his mobile phone of how shallow the water is at the spot where Nicola’s mobile phone was left, and where the police believe she might have entered the river.

‘It’s even more shallow now but on the day it would have been around two feet deep, if she slipped she would have gone in and hit rock very quickly and been up to her thigh, that’s all,’ he says. ‘This is not drowning territory.’

He also disagrees with the suggestion that she might have hit her head on a rock and lost consciousness, and that her body could have been washed round the river bend to the nearby weir...."

Dive expert makes huge claim about Nicola Bulley's disappearance

KATHRYN KNIGHT: Peter Faulding has amassed a number of impressive qualifications in the course of his life, but he has one particular talent for which there is no formal certificate.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Well the Angling Association have a sign up at the bench stating Deep Water so I doubt it’s two feet in perpetuity

Zoomed in from bench photo in this article 'Perpetual hell' as desperate search for missing mum Nicola Bulley continues

 

[Bibitty]

It was stated earlier on this thread that 2 other witnesses spotted the phone as well.

Do we know when? Was this at 11 when PA returned and others were helping him search - or do you mean that it was reported that others saw the phone between 9:33 and 11?

 

[Deleted member 320164]

Well the Angling Association have a sign up at the bench stating Deep Water so I doubt it’s two feet in perpetuity

Zoomed in from bench photo in this article 'Perpetual hell' as desperate search for missing mum Nicola Bulley continues

The river is not uniform depth - it’s shallower at the sides - if you watch footage of the river you can see the stones on the bottom at the banks.

Deep hole - is what it says.

Round the bend there’s a shallower bit where you can walk across (near Hall Lane) you can see it on Google map.

Then there’s the weir, and after that it gets shallower - so much so that PF’s dinghy ran aground and they had to pick it up and carry it.

 

[martinwatts5]

presumably yes - but nobody knows do they?

That is true, it’s just my opinion that the depth near the bench is important. Personally I feel that the body may have travelled ahead of the early search area and after that you are chasing your tail and 2 weeks in it is literally guesswork now.

 

[martinwatts5]

Do we know when? Was this at 11 when PA returned and others were helping him search - or do you mean that it was reported that others saw the phone between 9:33 and 11?

I read on this thread earlier that 2 other people saw the phone from 9.33 to 11.00 and it was on the lock screen.

 

[The Truth Is]

If she banged her head and initially just stunned herself, might she not float for a while due to air trapped in her clothes? Till eventually going under.

Doubt it to be honest. I stand by my gut feeling that the river is too slowly flowing in that area to move her downstream quickly enough without either catching on the river bed or washed up on the sides or on the weir. If i fell into water with or without clothes on i would sink.

 

[Lilbitcurious]

Sorry if already posted. More on the two 'suspicious' strangers Witness 'saw suspicious 2 men trying to hide their faces on Nicola Bulley route'

Maybe the 2 men didn’t have a permit to fish? That’s why their faces were covered?
“Petrol station/ Garage shop St Michaels, man at shop said the ticket starts just past a red brick building which was a good ten min walk from the Bridge and then we couldnt get past the end of Wyreside Fishery as their boundary goes to the waters edge”

“Best access is from the Grape pub carpark. The day ticket stretch starts after a red brick pump house”

River Wyre, St Michael's on Wyre - Churchtown - Garstang - Scorton - Great Eccleston Fishing Lancashire | Fishing in Lancashire

River Wyre, St Michael's on Wyre - Churchtown - Garstang - Scorton - Great Eccleston Fishing Lancashire Fishing In Lancashire River fishing : Wyre Lancs

fishinginlancashire.co.uk

 

[cottonweaver]

That is true, it’s just my opinion that the depth near the bench is important. Personally I feel that the body may have travelled ahead of the early search area and after that you are chasing your tail and 2 weeks in it is literally guesswork now.

yes agreed, very likely
A head start of around 2 hours

Although I can remember that it's 100 yards to the weir ( tidal stretch) I can't remember the data from the early threads - posters were trying to estimate the speed of the water etc.

eta
HM Coastguard and volunteer RNLI haven't been ' goal-keeping' ( their phrase ) mouth of the estuary, these last few days, cause they have nothing better to do. ( Clearly it's possible, they're the experts, not people like me)

 

[Cranky]

Path at the back of Rowan water.

 

[Lilbitcurious]

Maybe the 2 men didn’t have a permit to fish? That’s why their faces were covered?
“Petrol station/ Garage shop St Michaels, man at shop said the ticket starts just past a red brick building which was a good ten min walk from the Bridge and then we couldnt get past the end of Wyreside Fishery as their boundary goes to the waters edge”

“Best access is from the Grape pub carpark. The day ticket stretch starts after a red brick pump house”

River Wyre, St Michael's on Wyre - Churchtown - Garstang - Scorton - Great Eccleston Fishing Lancashire | Fishing in Lancashire

River Wyre, St Michael's on Wyre - Churchtown - Garstang - Scorton - Great Eccleston Fishing Lancashire Fishing In Lancashire River fishing : Wyre Lancs

fishinginlancashire.co.uk

Also lots more info on this site too

The Fishing – St. Michaels Angling Association

stmichaelsaa.co.uk

 

[wackyw]

I do understand that the river is flowing which is obvious. Also i understand how buoyancy works. However her body is not buoyant when/if she drowned, it would fill with water and sink. She would only become buoyant when her body released gasses. You are saying that her body would become buoyant straight awayand move down the river? That river flow is way to slow to move a drowned body is what im trying to say.

Did you ever do the thing in the swimming pool wearing minimal clothing ? .... float on your back after breathing in ...... you float ... breathe out ... and you sink, but slowly ... that's how the margin between floating and sinking is for a human body ,, a lung full of air. So, if the clothing NB was wearing trapped a lungful of air ... then she would be floating ... until such time that trapped air was replaced by water.

Would that trapped air last long enough to get her over the weir that morning ?

PS Edit - just to be clear ... does the trapped air between her body and clothing/coats keep her afloat ?

 

[Firstsnow4]

Looks as though police are stepping up with more searches of homes, outbuildings etc

Local saw 'hooded men trying to hide faces' near Nicola Bulley route

A local alleged that two men - who appeared to be wearing hoods or hats - were near to St Michaels church just over 24 hours prior to Nicola's disappearance.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[martinwatts5]

That is true, it’s just my opinion that the depth near the bench is important. Personally I feel that the body may have travelled ahead of the early search area and after that you are chasing your tail and 2 weeks in it is literally guesswork now.

Having said that, it has just been mentioned that PF’s dinghy ran aground in a shallow area near the weir. Every theory in this case seems to have a hole in it.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

yes agreed, very likely
A head start of around 2 hours

Although I can remember that it's 100 yards to the weir ( tidal stretch) I can't remember the data from the early threads - posters were trying to estimate the speed of the water etc.

eta
HM Coastguard and volunteer RNLI haven't been ' goal-keeping' ( their phrase ) mouth of the estuary, these last few days, cause they have nothing better to do. ( Clearly it's possible, they're the experts, not people like me)

Question - can you or anyone link to a drowning where someone was found circa 11 miles down the river 2 weeks later.

Because bodies don’t generally seem to make that kind of progress even in large fast-flowing tidal rivers.

 

[CriLondon]

He has been a massive source of misinformation for over a week.
It's not only that he claims stuff which is risible, it's that he contradicted himself over and over due to shooting from the hip and - presumably - was unable to remember what he'd said to one channel in the morning vs another channel in the afternoon.

About 5 threads of WS has been dominated by having to debunk many of those things.

eta
Re the past cases which @Just-a-random-girl has found, many of the newspapers reporting today, also have their own searchable archives and could probably check themselves for drownings in the Wyre ( Or tidal river drownings where bodies not found for weeks, or drownings in the South which Faulding has worked but was unable to be successful. If we can find & paste them on WS, they can. )

See the things is .... The media part of Mr.Faulding , alrhough rather unpleasant , is least concerning .
I am personally far more interested in the fact that neither him and his team nor the SAR teams which were on the scene within hours from NB's disappearance have found any evidence whatsoever in the 1 mile upstream and down to the weir from the bench area, repeatedly searched for days .
Despite all the wondeful sleuthing that has gone on with regards to water level , buoyancy , flow , speed , depth , sonar capabilities ...it might instead be simply more logical that , if in the water , she may have not entered it where it has been assumed she did , which is before the weir , thus nullifying the search operations.

This is sometimes the result of trying to fit facts to a preconceived idea of what happened.
We stop looking , we stop thinking .

 

[Loobyloo]

So once upon a time that spot was secured. Interesting.
When I mentioned doing this I got jumped on, but it must have made sense to do so at one point.
Changes are often made after tragedies occur but its a shame this one wasnt made permanent.

No, it wasn't secured. It was a popular swimming spot. The wire mentioned is barbed wire barriers that had been placed in the river as defence against invasion (it happened all round the country). The local view was that recent floods had shifted the barbed wire to a more dangerous position, which is why the boy's legs became trapped & he couldn't escape.
(Most of this is in the newspaper report linked earlier - confirmed by personal family knowledge.)