Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[wackyw]

No i havent and i understand why you would think it would be different on a different day, however look at any of the police videos and go and look at the water above the weir - it isnt strong enough to move a body

You don't know that, .... neither do I ..... but I wouldn't rush to claim something that may be substantially more complicated than it appears to be.

So I'm putting the judgement of the "professional rivery/watery people", that were there on the spot at the time, above yours and mine.

It wouldn't surprise me that it also possible that an apparently looking still body of water may have strong under currents, or even exhibit some elements of laminar flow, my first google searches don't seem to throw anything up but I'll be interested to try more .... so I'll see what I can find ..

 

[ginnyw]

It was very cold on the morning that NB disappeared....I looked at a weather map for the area and it was about 1 degree, barely above freezing. I guess that if somebody fell in in, say, July, they might have had a better chance of surviving for longer in the water, or would not have been wearing heavy clothes either. It was such a very cold few days.

 

[Miss_French]

No, I don't think she would double check with the school if she already knew & trusted the person & nor would most of us.
It's very difficult on this ultra-tight website, but she's a member of PTA, so, and I'm not for moment suggesting the predator is a member, but Nicola would be expected to trust them. And I don't think she 'hared off' after them either, I think she'd have walked quickly alongside them.

GDPR? Safeguarding? That's not what the PTA do, rely messages to parents about an urgent issue with their children?

Nicola runs. You don't think she'd try to get to the school ASAP? Or find out further info on what was happening?

 

[jojojaja]

I think there is a reasonable chance that the divers may have missed her the first time and that she was in the deeper part of the river around the bench. Nicola disappeared on the 27th of January and SGI began searching on the 6th of February, 10 full days later, surely long enough to be carried over the weir and transported a number of miles downstream.

On the in depth channel 5 news special last Friday it was stated police divers were in there searching on the day she disappeared

 

[Mr X]

Odd coincidence that the fishing car park is the primary school car park.

 

[suzyjackson]

I don’t use a key for my car. Can unlock from an app on my phone.

Ok, but NB has keys, I don't understand what you're geting at

 

[I wonder]

Odd coincidence that the fishing car park is the primary school car park.

I suspect it’s because it’s a small village. I doubt there’s space for many car parks. Plus it’s a community thing. In small villages people and organisations really help one another out.

 

[Miss_French]

The school did phone Paul. He mentioned it in his Channel 5 interview and it’s in various newspapers including:

Nicola Bulley's partner reveals reveals his panic on when she vanished

Nicola Bulley's distraught partner gave a detailed account of the moment when he realised she had gone missing. He said 'never in a million years' would she leave behind their dog Willow.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I'm not discussing actuals, but someone's theory that Nicola could have been enticed from the field to the road by someone known to her pretending their was a problem with the girls at school. IMO not a plausible ruse and I said the school would relay that message by phone, not send a person looking for Nicola to tell her something had happened.

 

[Enigmacode]

Wonder if the police have searched Rowanwater? This section is directly north of the upper field, where NB was last seen.

 

[suzyjackson]

I suspect it’s because it’s a small village. I doubt there’s space for many car parks. Plus it’s a community thing. In small villages people and organisations really help one another out.

Totally normal where I live too, the school car could be used by anyone outside of school hours, often for village hall events

 

[Loobyloo]

In June 1945 a young boy named Derek Roscoe Tyson drowned in the River Wyre at St Michael's which also appears to be the exact same location. The river was described as 8 feet deep and "treacherous" at that place with the river bed fluctuating in depth. Back then, the area was protected by "wire". That was in summer though and obviously conditions will change but still interesting info.

Source:BNA Home | Search the archive | British Newspaper Archive

Yes, I posted about this case on an earlier thread. He was my relative. (The wire was barbed wire defence barriers from the war.)

 

[Enigmacode]

I still can’t get my head around possible abduction. Which road would a car be close enough and unobserved by residents/random dog walkers at mid morning to drag a grown woman to it with excitable dog in tow?

Specifically, see map I just posted. Rowanwater is a mobile home park right next to the upper field, roads leading to that spot are the extension of Garstang Road where Rowanwater is, directly north/north west of the upper field.
Or nearest the bench is Allotment Lane where Wyreside Farm Caravan Park is located.
Both locations are where transients can situate themselves, after all.
Springer spaniels are not like German Shepherds, throwing a ball would be enough to distract her dog!

​

 

[tallmansix]

No i havent and i understand why you would think it would be different on a different day, however look at any of the police videos and go and look at the water above the weir - it isnt strong enough to move a body

<modsnip: snarky>

There is a constant flow towards the sea where the river is above sea level. The speed of that flow might be 1mph or up to about 15mph for a fast river but it is never static as that would defy the laws of physics.

And regardless of whether it is a rubber duck, body or a boat - if it floats the river will move the object, the size and weight are irrelevant, just the relative density.

Assuming the same flow rate of water, where a river is deep/wide the water will move more slowly versus where it gets narrow/shallow where it moves more quickly - but within a given stretch, the same volume of water will move per second, just at different speeds depending on the size and shape of the river.

At the place NB disappeared the river is deep and wide - a lot of water will be flowing by volume but relatively slowly. At just 1mph (slow compared to walking speed of 3-4mph) the body would move 110 metres in just 10 minutes - well out of sight in the small window that this incident occurred in.

The flow doesn't need to be strong to move a body, the relative buoyancy of a body is approx the same as the water itself.

For example barges on canals weighing a hundred tons will drift when not tethered despite hardly any water flow - because they are buoyant. Drop a 100-ton metal weight into the water and it won't move - buoyancy is the factor, not the size or weight.

 

[wackyw]

It was very cold on the morning that NB disappeared....I looked at a weather map for the area and it was about 1 degree, barely above freezing. I guess that if somebody fell in in, say, July, they might have had a better chance of surviving for longer in the water, or would not have been wearing heavy clothes either. It was such a very cold few days.

I was up in that area for a few weeks before. Approx 5-12 days beforehand it was substantially colder than that and the higher Bowland Fells ( catchment area ) were covered in snow. I don't know how long that "melt water" might have taken to find it's way down to St Michaels though. Before that time it was wet, cos that's how the Fylde is .. wet.

 

[Mr X]

This is ridiculous & irrelevant nonsense

I'm not the only person on the thread pointing out that owners of large houses build structures in rivers. Some of these structures might not be all that obvious to a casual observer.

I'm not sure you are understanding how rivers work?

There is a constant flow towards the sea where the river is above sea level. The speed of that flow might be 1mph or up to about 15mph for a fast river but it is never static as that would defy the laws of physics.

And regardless of whether it is a rubber duck, body or a boat - if it floats the river will move the object, the size and weight are irrelevant, just the relative density.

Assuming the same flow rate of water, where a river is deep/wide the water will move more slowly versus where it gets narrow/shallow where it moves more quickly - but within a given stretch, the same volume of water will move per second, just at different speeds depending on the size and shape of the river.

At the place NB disappeared the river is deep and wide - a lot of water will be flowing by volume but relatively slowly. At just 1mph (slow compared to walking speed of 3-4mph) the body would move 110 metres in just 10 minutes - well out of sight in the small window that this incident occurred in.

The flow doesn't need to be strong to move a body, the relative buoyancy of a body is approx the same as the water itself.

For example barges on canals weighing a hundred tons will drift when not tethered despite hardly any water flow - because they are buoyant. Drop a 100-ton metal weight into the water and it won't move - buoyancy is the factor, not the size or weight.

There are some areas where eddies form and also in holes you can get situations where the current flowing across may deposit objects into an area below where the water is stationary or moving in the opposite direction.

It isn't as simple as the whole lot is moving. Yes it is all going towards the sea but some objects especially submerged objects may be trapped in certain areas. Apparently this includes the deep holes where objects may be deposited and covered in more deposited material over time.

The theory being that if a body found its way into one of these deep hole areas it may become covered with other materials until a flood event flushes the whole lot out.

 

[Cranky]

Wonder if the police have searched Rowanwater? This section is directly north of the upper field, where NB was last seen.

View attachment 402498

It's been mentioned previously, it's been searched and there are gates at the road entrance and a gate between the top field and the lodge site

 

[Enigmacode]

Was the red van in the same lane as the church?

Reportedly in Hall Lane. Round the corner from Blackpool Lane, where the Church is located, so very close.

 

[wackyw]

I'm not sure you are understanding how rivers work?

There is a constant flow towards the sea where the river is above sea level. The speed of that flow might be 1mph or up to about 15mph for a fast river but it is never static as that would defy the laws of physics.

And regardless of whether it is a rubber duck, body or a boat - if it floats the river will move the object, the size and weight are irrelevant, just the relative density.

Assuming the same flow rate of water, where a river is deep/wide the water will move more slowly versus where it gets narrow/shallow where it moves more quickly - but within a given stretch, the same volume of water will move per second, just at different speeds depending on the size and shape of the river.

At the place NB disappeared the river is deep and wide - a lot of water will be flowing by volume but relatively slowly. At just 1mph (slow compared to walking speed of 3-4mph) the body would move 110 metres in just 10 minutes - well out of sight in the small window that this incident occurred in.

The flow doesn't need to be strong to move a body, the relative buoyancy of a body is approx the same as the water itself.

For example barges on canals weighing a hundred tons will drift when not tethered despite hardly any water flow - because they are buoyant. Drop a 100-ton metal weight into the water and it won't move - buoyancy is the factor, not the size or weight.

Thank you, I "sort of" knew this but would never have been able to put it this well.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

The weirdest historic news story I came across about the River Wyre was two very large otters attacking a man in February 1886. The news story is quite over the top and I sense it was very embellished.

However, otter attacks do happen (very, very rare though) and it appears there were known otter sightings in Garstang last year. However unlikely, and there is no evidence of an otter attack, I guess there is a very slim (minute?) possibility otters played a role (even if she spotted one and that caused her to get close to the water to look at it). I do not think it was the case, but just putting this unlikely thought out into the world...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ForestofBowland/comments/z77cce

 

[Bibitty]

It seems that there were plenty of dog walker witnesses around from 8:43 to 9:10.

But none from 9:33 to 11 am.

Then when PA arrived there were dog walkers around who helped him search.

Was the dog tied there for that time at all?
Or was it than just no one walked past in those 1.5 hrs?