Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #15

[Agatha3]

Someone drinking would tend to walk more slowly.

We don’t know she was drinking that day.

 

[sceawian]

I doubt if POA is relevant in this case as we can assume that as neither PA or NB have any issues with mental capacity to make their own decisions (financial or medical) they probably wouldn't have ever addressed the matter.

Ahh, all my family have LPAs already set up (and I'm in my early 30s), so I may have over-estimated the likelihood of PA and NB having PoAs set up for each other.

 

[Marie Bell]

It's going to be interesting to see the IOPC report on this one. ( self referral)
If they did release it under pressure from media I'd liked to read about that in the report too ( Mark William's Thomas call to LP to release what he'd scooped about the police call to the home)

If Home Sec wanted to she could ask for a full review from His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary - I bet she doesn't.
I hope that the lower ranks won't get the blame and have their career's affected because that U turn was clearly made over the head of the SIO

The self-referral to the IOPC is mandatory. Whenever a person dies or is seriously injured, or is in a serious incident, such as the current one, and police have had any recent contact with them, a referral has to be made. A typical example is where a person is arrested under suspicion of a sex offence, and then jumps off a bridge a day or two after release. Or a domestic violence victim is killed, when police have attended the address previously.
Usually in a situation like NB the IOPC would decide that the contact was too far removed for it to be relevant, and even less so for it to indicate that any conduct or performance issues by police officers or staff occurred.

 

[Mr X]

We don’t know she was drinking that day.

This is true however the LE have announced that she had problems with alcohol. I:m an alcoholic myself although never touch the strong stuff and I don't hide it.
The fact the missing person had problems with alcohol is general knowledge. The only way to find out if someone was drinking at a certain time is with either breath or blood tests. Absent the missing person neither of these can be carried out.

IMO it is entirely plausible she could have been consuming strong drink and this could be related to the disappearance.

 

[Tanzanite]

My view is that tragically, NB put down her phone, walked downstream and entered the water beyond the weir.

However, if pressed for an alternative hypothesis, I'd probably suggest someone in the village shielding her. If (a very strong IF here) that were the case, maybe in the first few days, it was a necessary firebreak in NB's situation. They possibly reckoned without the media storm, and the social media descent on a small village. Every day it would get harder and harder to walk out and say 'I'm here.' And now? We can all imagine the pressure on NB and whoever might have set out to help her take time out.

In that situation, a trusted party placing a phone call to LE and a managed situation in another location would be necessary, as in removing her discreetly and taking family to her well away from the spotlight.

I wish I really believed that was the case.

 

[pineapple23]

"not be scared"
"time to come home now."


The phrasing makes it sound as if these family members believe that NB has left voluntarily ( Mum/Dad/Sister)

Or it might just be that they want to cling on to the most hopeful possibility.

 

[ginnyw]

Hi we have similar theories. I have a mental health background and re Jan 10th was reminded of an incident which I attended along with police and health professionals due to concerns about one of my clients. As for the initial statement that NB was vulnerable, we already know that this came after a former detective Mark Williams Thomas found out about the incident and contacted Police saying he had details (discussed earlier with a link).
Of course none of this might have any bearing on what happened or it simply might be she wasn't as focussed as usual. I can see a scenario where she put her phone down and got up off the bench to grab Willow and put her harness on. She may have stumbled and gone down head first. The harness was found on the slope. Maybe she kocked her head or got cold water shock.
But just one of several possibilities imo
I hope for the family's sake we learn something soon.

I see that scenario all the time. That bank is steep and slippery.

 

[Mr X]

I see that scenario all the time. That bank is steep and slippery.

It seems likely she went in the water. I'm wondering what the PF sonar guy meant about changing the search strategy if he had known about her vulnerabilities.

IMO Is this a coded way of saying he now realises that the search of the River in the area could potentially not have been thorough enough? Perhaps he was referring to extending the search to other areas.

Intriguing.

 

[pineapple23]

That has definitely crossed my mind a few times. I still wonder why his harness was between the bench and river though.

Harness was on slope (link posted in early threads). She might have been trying to put it on and stumbled. She would have needed both hands so it makes sense imo that she put the phone down first.

 

[steelo]

That has definitely crossed my mind a few times. I still wonder why his harness was between the bench and river though.

It may be useful to have a sketched plan (birds eye view) of where the phone, lead and harness were found in relation to the bench. It could be quite revealing!

 

[cottonweaver]

The local may be considered an accomplice in her disappearance rather than some predator - eg a friend who is helping her escape from her situation.

Possibly
But I just got that impression from his own interview where he seemed so convinced she wouldn't leave voluntarily ( with somebody)

'It's absolutely impossible. So something has happened. Something has happened. Find out what it is. Find out what it is. There has to be a way to find out what happened. There has to be. You cannot, you cannot walk your dog down a river and just vanish into thin air. Something happened that day, something. Find out what it is and my plea now is, personally, I want every house, every garage, every outbuilding, the land, scrutinised. I want it all searched. I want it all scrutinised. Every piece of it. I'm not going to... you're not going to appease me with anything else, that is what I want to happen because for something to have happened there... you would only know that area by local pe... it's a local area. We've walked down there for years, and I mean, years. You see the same faces every single day and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you don't know, they stand out like a sore thumb.

Walker - And I think that's an important point to make because there might be some people watching this, thinking 'why are you doing this?' Why are you talking to us? and the reason you're doing that, I don't want to put words in your mouth, is because you feel that somebody out there knows something? That's the appeal that you're trying to make?

Paul - Yeah, definitely, definitely and I'm just pleading with them. Just please, anything, anything, no matter how tiny, just please, just come forward with it please, because that could be the key to finding her and as a family we're not bothered about anything else. Like there's nothing else. The only thing is we just have to find her.

Walker - You've told us a bit about who Nikki is. Was she ever the sort of person who might go away for a night or leave for a few days, you know what I mean?

Paul - That's about as far out of character you could get, I truly mean that. Even as a couple, on the odd occasion if we ever do have a night away from the girls... because the girls are our world. We go out for meals, the girls come with us.'


link for that UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

and thanks again for doing these transcripts @Allabouttrial
- really helps when I need to refresh memory of what exactly was said

 

[Simplistic67]

IMHO I believe we are in for a very big turn of events regarding this case. I dont believe she went into the water, and I honestly believe the Police know a lot more than they are willing to share ATM...

 

[dotr]

Nicola Bulley suffered ‘brain fog’ before disappearance as dad hopes for breakthrough

Mum-of-two was battling side effects caused by peri menopause

www.independent.co.uk

''In a statement released by the devastated family on Thursday, they said the mum-of-two was struggling with peri menopause which caused certain side effects.

They said: “Due to the peri menopause Nikki suffered with significant side effects such as brain fog, restless sleep and was taking HRT to help but this was giving her intense headaches which caused Nikki to stop taking the HRT thinking that may have helped her but only ended up causing this crisis.”

Desperate to find their daughter, Ms Bulley’s father today said they “need a breakthrough”.

Speaking to Sky News, he said: ““Every day is a struggle. [We’re] no further on from three weeks ago. [We] just need a breakthrough to give us some hope.”

 

[Marie Bell]

As you say we don't have all the information they have - but in terms of releasing the information prior/ahead of the press releasing it - they still need to have a lawful basis to release the information. Police can release personal data in order to investigate a crime and protect the public - personally I can't see how releasing information to pre-empt a story released by the press falls under either purpose? I would imagine that the Police have a legal support team and access to expertise that could have advised them.

Lancs Police will have to justify and explain their decision making process to the Information Commissioner's Office and imo it's good that the ICO have published a statement today stating they've asked for this explanation.

And again menopause systems, HRT treatment and "significant" alcholol problems are very explicit and detailed - any health and medical data including mental health data is special category (sensitive) personal data. They could have simply said there were ongoing health and medical issues without providing the level of detail that they did.

I've bolded a sentence of your post because it's quite correct. This was the sort of decision which would usually be run past the Head of Legal Services, because it's so contentious. The Senior Leadership Team and Command Team wouldn't be likely to dare to put out such a statement without having all Ps and Qs checked, in my opinion.

 

[Agatha3]

This is true however the LE have announced that she had problems with alcohol. I:m an alcoholic myself although never touch the strong stuff and I don't hide it.
The fact the missing person had problems with alcohol is general knowledge. The only way to find out if someone was drinking at a certain time is with either breath or blood tests. Absent the missing person neither of these can be carried out.

IMO it is entirely plausible she could have been consuming strong drink and this could be related to the disappearance.

 

[LastSeenWearing]

Paul said he phoned LP at 10.50am and that when he got to bench, probs about 10 mins later (from home to bench) there were dog walkers there who handed him Willow & NB phone. If the guy & Penny found Willow at 9.30am then that’s an hour & half waiting with the dog.

Penny said she had to get back for an appointment so she wouldn't have stayed with Willow. I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere if the gentleman witness on sky news stayed with Willow just that his wife phoned him while he was at the bench after having been phoned by Penny. That's what I picked up from the sky live witness appearance today.

 

[Agatha3]

Good luck, fella. Yes to all of that. Some have thought she under influence and that why she entered River. I saw the police message more as explaining
an addiction/depression/anxiety reason for their hypothesis.

 

[guiser]

Ahh, all my family have LPAs already set up (and I'm in my early 30s), so I may have over-estimated the likelihood of PA and NB having PoAs set up for each other.

I'm in my 60s and thought that POA was just what people did for their elderly parents if they started to get confused but am now in the awful position of having to set one up so I can deal with my daughter's affairs since a neurological illness has reduced her capacity and ability to communicate.
Otherwise, I'd expect PA and NB (if they have mortgages, life insurances, wills etc) to have it stated in those products specifically that the other be permitted to take control should one of them become incapacitated or die.

 

[Loobyloo]

I think MWT is implying that it was the Jan 10th event that would have been reported on. If the press couldn’t have included any more info than that the police and an ambulance were there, due to not being able to report on medical/psychological issues, it would have raised further unnecessary questions, suspicion, conspiracy theories, and hurt for the family.

edit: sorry, much the same was already said, didn’t realise how many pages of the thread had already come after that I hadn’t got to yet!

<bbm>
Do you have a link for the point about an ambulance attending? I've only seen references to a response car containing police officers & health professionals.

 

[ginnyw]

Metropolitan Police Commissioner offers help finding NB - that would be good, IMO. A fresh perspective.

Nicola Bulley's dad speaks for first time and tells of investigation heatbreak

The 45-year-old mum has disappeared without a trace

www.mylondon.news