Your posts on this have been very thought provoking and interesting and it sounds like you have personal experience of this and I am sorry to hear that. What I would say is that suicide by drowning in the UK at least is not common at all (<5% of cases in males or females)... reference here from Office of National Statistics.
Registered deaths in the UK from suicide analysed by sex, age, area of usual residence of the deceased and suicide method.
www.ons.gov.uk
In addition, the police say she made a call to book a play date for her children shortly before her disappearance. This does not to me seem to be the action of someone who was in a suicidal frame of mind.
The Occam's razor point is well made which is all about the simplest, most parsimonious explanation being the most likely. I agree that Occam's razor would suggest she ended up in the water (rather than a convoluted explanation of an abduction, being forced to walk down a path into a vehicle, leaving the dog and phone behind and not being seen at any point by a dashcam or similar).
However, given that the extensive search of the river and that at this point is is unlikely she is currently in the water near the bench area, wouldn't Occam's razor suggest that she exited the water somewhere locally rather than the much less likely event of being swept away, over a weir, round the multiple river bends in a relatively slow moving river ?
When she first went missing, Occam's razor suggested she ended up in the water and would be found in the immediate area. However, following the search that is now demonstrably much less likely to be the case so the probability of her falling in AND remaining in the water in that area is much less.
I really think there is a good chance she got out on the South side of the river and may have walked away from the river edge in a hypothermic state for some distance which is why she has not yet been found. If she had exited on the North river bank in the local area she would probably have been able to summon help at the caravan site.
It is also plausible that she might have attempted to walk home from that side in a hypothermic state given that at that point she had lost her phone and car keys probably would not have worked or might have been lost in the water.
/ pop his head above the parapet
