Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #3

[Badgerette]

The only issue with the 'abandoned' house is that it is on the other side of the river.

Yes, I'm aware of the 'abandoned' house on the opposite side of the river that everyone keeps discussing which is why I said, NOT the abandoned house across from the bench. The article I linked Mirror is talking about a different 'abandoned' home between the village hall & Ivy Dene Alpacas. This second abandoned home is the first place PA went to search upon hearing of NB's disappearance. The area around the village hall & these alpacas looks pretty well populated, but something about the area made PA think to go there straightaway. That is what seems off to me.

 

[Beckxsy]

Scenario in my mind could be that she sat at bench playing ball perhaps with the dog. Dog tends to enjoy water so harness and lead off makes sense in the event the dog decides to swim. Could be that the ball got stuck along the edge somewhere and she crouched to get it losing balance falling head first. Waters would be very cold so possibly shock of the cold or bump to head leaving her unconscious and ultimately taken by the water.

 

[Edinlass]

I do lean towards her having another phone as I notice on her work FB she has her mobile number for all to see, surely this isn’t her personal number. But that’s not to say she didn’t only have her work/personal phone with her on Friday and the work/personal phone left at home/in the car, can’t imagine she would walk about with two phones but then it was in work time so you wouldn’t want to miss any important work calls so leaning toward it was the work phone in her possession.

Could also explain why she never replied to her sister, she most probably would have text NB personal phone. Apart from the obvious reasons she was unable to text JMO

 

[Falconaire]

The police appeal earlier today for the lady spotted on cctv on allotment lane, I’m wondering if they saw anything else which would help with the case, this road leads to the caravan park and river IMO.

 

[kittythehare]

The issue with the theories that another person was involved is that nobody else is reported to have been seen - so far - by any of the witnesses. Everyone who has been seen has been identified.

NB was seen by three or more people in the comparatively short time she was walking.

If another person was there, they'd have likely been seen by someone too, unless they were very carefully hiding the entire time they're in the vicinity.

I'd imagine that if another person was there with nefarious intent it is highly likely they would have taken pains to not be seen.

 

[Taskforce88]

Yes, I'm aware of the 'abandoned' house on the opposite side of the river that everyone keeps discussing which is why I said, NOT the abandoned house across from the bench. The article I linked Mirror is talking about a different 'abandoned' home between the village hall & Ivy Dene Alpacas. This second abandoned home is the first place PA went to search upon hearing of NB's disappearance. The area around the village hall & these alpacas looks pretty well populated, but something about the area made PA think to go there straightaway. That is what seems off to me.

Yes, that's the house I mentioned earlier <modsnip>

I found it strange that was the first place - or one of the first - the partner looked.

 

[infinit]

Unlikely she would need to be forced/dragged if she walking with someone she knew though?

Good point, I just don't know how that ties up with the phone and the dog though. If she's gone off with someone she knew then surely she'd tie the dog up and not leave her phone randomly on the bench? Unless that person came back with her phone and placed it on the bench and then untied the dog? I just don't see that happening, surely you'd just throw the phone in the river and leave the dog be rather than risk being seen messing around with it.

 

[Dobby’s sock]

Yes, I'm aware of the 'abandoned' house on the opposite side of the river that everyone keeps discussing which is why I said, NOT the abandoned house across from the bench. The article I linked Mirror is talking about a different 'abandoned' home between the village hall & Ivy Dene Alpacas. This second abandoned home is the first place PA went to search upon hearing of NB's disappearance. The area around the village hall & these alpacas looks pretty well populated, but something about the area made PA think to go there straightaway. That is what seems off to me.

I thought this myself. Like why did he go specifically there to search for her. Seems a bit strange imo.

 

[supersleuth1974]

I just refreshed the Lancs police update page and there is a map there now that wasn't when I looked earlier showing location of upper and lower fields etc. They're not quite where I'd thought but it does seem to confirm that NB went quite a way past the bench to where the 09:10 sighting was, and was possibly on her way back.

I've combined this and the Strava route posted on the previous thread I've put a route in yellow that NB may have been on between 09:10 and the finding of Willow back at the bench at 09:35 (ETA: distance of the yellow route is approx 300-400 metres)

The path on that route looks quite open but does pass a few lines of trees and also goes close to the Devine Camping Pods.

Great picture , search that campsite , it needs turning over in my opinion, just a guess but I think the bench is a red herring , she's unlikely to be in the water due to the depth and flow rate , that said it could be like in the Gaia pope case where the authorities missed the seemingly obvious

 

[Beginnersleuth]

For me, the red flags and things that don’t add up in this case are as follows:

- Time of day. Very odd, first thing in the morning. Not the time of day you expect a random attack.

- Location. Rural village, secluded, popular walking route with locals. Any odd individuals or people acting strangely would stand out like a saw thumb. As far as we now, no one has reported seeing anyone behaving oddly.

- No signs of struggle. Partner was called first, almost as if at first there was no sense of urgency, not the police. Why?

- A dog owner, who recognised a dog, but couldn’t see the owner, would not leave the dog in situ. Almost as if the witnesses knew the owner was still nearby, but perhaps pre-occupied. If it was me, I’d hang around for a while, then take the dog in with me (in fact this has happened to me before)

<modsnip - not victim friendly>

- Anonymous witnesses - suggests the witnesses saw more than has been revealed, and police know more than they are letting on. Perhaps NB was seen with someone else.

Put yourself in the shoes of the police - if you suspect someone, but there is currently not enough evidence whatsoever to implicate or charge them, what do you do? Do you let the case run and hope the suspect slips up before revealing suspicions? (They did in the McCann case) Perhaps wait for a body to show up?

I also think the police likely know more than they are letting on. Just gathering evidence and following the movements of someone likely known to NB.
Or NB felt unwell, sat down, had a bad brain bleed or other medical issue, staggered/struggled to stand with vertigo or something and fell into the river (tho would have to be very steep as nearly dead weight humans land rather than rolling).

 

[Firstsnow4]

I do lean towards her having another phone as I notice on her work FB she has her mobile number for all to see, surely this isn’t her personal number. But that’s not to say she didn’t only have her work/personal phone with her on Friday and the work/personal phone left at home/in the car, can’t imagine she would walk about with two phones but then it was in work time you wouldn’t want to miss any important work calls so leaning toward the work phone in her possession.

So say she did have her personal phone on her, I wonder if they can track that to establish where she went/where she is now? I guess if it’s underwater it wouldn’t work. Maybe that’s how they know it’s not third party because her personal phone also stopped connecting to local towers at the same time in the same location and it’s on her person. JMO.

 

[infinit]

Scenario in my mind could be that she sat at bench playing ball perhaps with the dog. Dog tends to enjoy water so harness and lead off makes sense in the event the dog decides to swim. Could be that the ball got stuck along the edge somewhere and she crouched to get it losing balance falling head first. Waters would be very cold so possibly shock of the cold or bump to head leaving her unconscious and ultimately taken by the water.

Cold water shock is a good point/theory, happens in water less than 15C (water would be far colder than that) and can cause heart attacks.

 

[Edinlass]

So say she did have her personal phone on her, I wonder if they can track that to establish where she went/where she is now? I guess if it’s underwater it wouldn’t work. Maybe that’s how they know it’s not third party because her personal phone also stopped connecting to local towers at the same time in the same location and it’s on her person. JMO.

Good point, could well be. Could well be in the river or lost within that area w/out NB though too. I’m scouring her photos intently on Fb to see if she wears an Apple or similar Watch although I do know that Apple Watches at least are linked with your phone, essentially they mirror your phone so they don’t (from what I know) show location only the location of the phone you are mirroring.

 

[ShireChe]

I'm still struggling a bit with why initially the police seemed pretty confident of no 3rd party involvement.

It may well turn out to be the case, but it sems a strange initial scene to me. Phone on the ground/bench still connected to the teams call, harness and lead on the ground/bench, loose anxious dog. Certainly strange enough to not be ruling anything out

 

[Danny Dnipro]

Does anybody

Yes, I'm aware of the 'abandoned' house on the opposite side of the river that everyone keeps discussing which is why I said, NOT the abandoned house across from the bench. The article I linked Mirror is talking about a different 'abandoned' home between the village hall & Ivy Dene Alpacas. This second abandoned home is the first place PA went to search upon hearing of NB's disappearance. The area around the village hall & these alpacas looks pretty well populated, but something about the area made PA think to go there straightaway. That is what seems off to me.

The houses *on* this road look fairly new and occupied. (Google Street view) but there is a lane that runs south from this road that isn't covered by Street view and has more "farm" type buildings and out buildings. Maybe PA and NB have a mutual property or project in that area?!

 

[WhoIsThatGuy]

I'm still struggling a bit with why initially the police seemed pretty confident of no 3rd party involvement.

It may well turn out to be the case, but it sems a strange initial scene to me. Phone on the ground/bench still connected to the teams call, harness and lead on the ground/bench, loose anxious dog. Certainly strange enough to not be ruling anything out

Because they assumed she went missing of her own free will or fell in the river from the start. Items found at scene means police would have been looking for evidence of foul play in that area primarily right from the start. I think the police are looking in the wrong place too focused around the river. They need to branch outwards IMO JMO

 

[Blondiexoxo]

<modsnip - off topic> If someone had been visiting the area regularly leading up to Nicola’s disappearance, finding spots where they could be concealed, working out a way to get in and out inconspicuously, planning to target a young woman alone. Could they have found the perfect hiding spot waiting for the opportunity to arise? If one was positioned in a spot where they had a good view of who was approaching, could they strike quickly and quietly without being seen and get away from the area before or even after Willow was found?

If foul play is involved then cctv will be of great importance. Vehicles coming and going from between 6am right up to 10am or after need to be identified imo , also checked against footage from previous days. If someone with bad intentions was involved, I’d think it likely they’d been checking that area out for some time leading up to the day in question. All MOO

Knowing that Nicola has 2 children and how broken her family must be feeling makes this very hard to write. I hope to god that this is not the case and that if indeed Nicola is no longer alive, I just pray that whatever happened was quick and painless. For her sake and her family’s I hope we get answers soon.

 

[Kassanddra]

@ShireChe they did say no reason to believe third party . Blah blah “At This Time” I definitely heard them say that.
So haven’t ruled it out completely

 

[ShireChe]

Because they assumed she went missing or fell in the river from the start. Items found at scene means police would have been looking for evidence of foul play in that area primarily right from the start. I think the police are looking in the wrong place too focused around the river. They need to branch outwards IMO JMO

But why did they just assume that unless they had any evidence/intel of it? it's one thing to 'think' thats what probably might have happened, but another entirely to say it in public.

 

[philthesaddler]

I'm still struggling a bit with why initially the police seemed pretty confident of no 3rd party involvement.

It may well turn out to be the case, but it sems a strange initial scene to me. Phone on the ground/bench still connected to the teams call, harness and lead on the ground/bench, loose anxious dog. Certainly strange enough to not be ruling anything out

For me, now piecing a few other bits together (like the anonymity of witnesses) suggests the police knew there was foul play, however, as with a lot of cases like this, it’s someone known to the victim, so they’re watching someone.

I know where my money is right now, but I wont say anything.