Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #3

[kittythehare]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>

Ms Bulley's dog, a springer spaniel called Willow, was found loose between the river and the bench.

Nicola Bulley: Potential witness sought by police in search for 45-year-old dog walker is traced

Police released a CCTV image of a possible witness they wanted to speak to who they believe might have been in the area at the time of Ms Bulley's disappearance.

news.sky.com

The mother-of-two had been walking her springer spaniel dog, Willow, along the river, leaving the phone, dog leash and harness on a nearby bench.

New CCTV breakthrough in hunt for missing dog walker as police seek ‘woman in red’

Nicola Bulley, 45, a mortgage advisor, was last seen on Friday morning at around 9.20am

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Falconaire]

On the lancs police update they state ’We continue to have specialist resources from both the police and other emergency services in the area searching a significant area of land around the river off Garstang Road’. Maybe the police are considering other options Moo.

 

[Blondiexoxo]

Police can and will withhold information from the public. They may say ‘no evidence to suggest foul play’ in order to put a possible suspect at ease, also if possible suspect believes they are under suspicion, they can sometimes become a risk to themselves and others. If someone feels the net is closing in and they ‘have nothing to lose’ a suspect may take drastic action to avoid prison.

The information released to us is carefully worded depending on the message police want to get across. Sometimes these announcements that sound like they’re for the media and public are really for the suspect. Saying things like ‘we don’t believe there was any 3rd party involvement’ can give a suspect confidence thinking they’re getting away with it, no one suspects them. This is when they can start making mistakes.

If they say ‘there is no risk to the public’ can suggest an isolated or domestic incident. ‘No evidence of foul play’ doesn’t necessarily mean that they don’t suspect foul play, just that they haven’t currently found evidence, but that evidence may be discovered. IMO it’s anyones guess what they are finding out and discussing behind the scenes right now.

 

[Taskforce88]

Don’t know if you’ve seen this but it’s been addressed areas of interest have been processed already

Some members of the public get annoyed that the police are not being seen to be doing something that they think they should be doing.

The public view right now is the river search. Behind the scenes is the scrutiny of NB's life and everything else necessary to build the bigger picture and prepare to move on to the next phase - if that becomes necessary.

Don't get me wrong the police have made a hash of things before and will do so again. Police are very cagey and it doesn't always help.

 

[truthistheresomewher]

JMO I’m finding any combination of events resulting in rolling in to the river an absolute reach, there would be some serious momentum required to make it down there rather than just dropping to the floor IMO.
Scenarios in my head: all absolute speculation MOO only
<modsnip - not victim friendly>
Accident - possible at a point on the river other than the current ‘focus’ of the bench where maybe there is evidence of a fall/scramble which hasn’t been spotted yet but highly unlikely at ‘the bench’ as no sign
Medical episode - possible but would be a highly complicated scenario of random medical episode resulting in landing in a river unconscious, rational thinking says not
Abduction by stranger - possible if dog distracted by for example a ball tossed a long way for a fetch by someone else - although routes out limited
Abduction by known person - similar as above but more likely than stranger
MOO is that something has happened with someone who she knows and probably who the dog knows.
No basis for this just IMO and the probability of all other possibilities

 

[Itsgrimupnorth]

Police can and will withhold information from the public. They may say ‘no evidence to suggest foul play’ in order to put a possible suspect at ease, also if possible suspect believes they are under suspicion, they can sometimes become a risk to themselves and others. If someone feels the net is closing in and they ‘have nothing to lose’ a suspect may take drastic action to avoid prison.

The information released to us is carefully worded depending on the message police want to get across. Sometimes these announcements that sound like they’re for the media and public are really for the suspect. Saying things like ‘we don’t believe there was any 3rd party involvement’ can give a suspect confidence thinking they’re getting away with it, no one suspects them. This is when they can start making mistakes.

If they say ‘there is no risk to the public’ can suggest an isolated or domestic incident. ‘No evidence of foul play’ doesn’t necessarily mean that they don’t suspect foul play, just that they haven’t currently found evidence, but that evidence may be discovered. IMO it’s anyones guess what they are finding out and discussing behind the scenes right now.

After reading through the thread I was trying to type exactly what you have said here regarding people questioning what the Police have said. Police have and will say anything necessary to protect the integrity of the investigation at any point.

 

[kittythehare]

They issued that on Twitter this afternoon "to reassure"

To clarify, not in inverted commas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621148466176217089

 

[Davinia]

JMO I’m finding any combination of events resulting in rolling in to the river an absolute reach, there would be some serious momentum required to make it down there rather than just dropping to the floor IMO.
Scenarios in my head: all absolute speculation MOO only
<modsnip - not victim friendly>
Accident - possible at a point on the river other than the current ‘focus’ of the bench where maybe there is evidence of a fall/scramble which hasn’t been spotted yet but highly unlikely at ‘the bench’ as no sign
Medical episode - possible but would be a highly complicated scenario of random medical episode resulting in landing in a river unconscious, rational thinking says not
Abduction by stranger - possible if dog distracted by for example a ball tossed a long way for a fetch by someone else - although routes out limited
Abduction by known person - similar as above but more likely than stranger
MOO is that something has happened with someone who she knows and probably who the dog knows.
No basis for this just IMO and the probability of all other possibilities

The tide was out that morning. At its lowest point. No fast flowing water to drown in? You can view the tidal tables

 

[Taskforce88]

After reading through the thread I was trying to type exactly what you have said here regarding people questioning what the Police have said. Police have and will say anything necessary to protect the integrity of the investigation at any point.

Case after case after case we see the police saying to the media "no foul play", only to find out that they did indeed suspect foul play. It's how it works. Its how they as you said, "protect the integrity of the investigation".

 

[Inspector Evans]

Can anyone confirm if NB's FB profile has always been public? I searched for it when she first went missing and couldn't find it. Then a couple of days later it was at the top of my search results. It may just be that I'd missed it, but I was curious if it had initially been taken down?

It's been up for a few days as I had a look yesterday (very hard viewing given she is a mother and prominent were the centre park pics from mid December) and regrettably a religious guy is spamming all her posts so really those should be deleted if they can as very disrespectful.

Didn't actually realise she had a separate FB account for her work which was more recently updated talking about the latest bank base rates.

 

[infinit]

The river was at its lowest point that morning. The tide was out, so for drowning, at that hour, is the least likely time someone could drown in a tidal river if it was just muddy whilst tide was out.

There is neglectable difference from the tide at that location: River Wyre at St Michaels: River level and flood alerts

 

[dharmasarc]

one of the highest causes of accidental death is drowning from shock/immersion on cold water. I think the most logical explanation at this point is that NB sits at the bench after letting the dog off the lead, leaves her phone on the bench and for whatever reason is near the river bank, who knows why, maybe a ball? Maybe just to stand near the edge? She either slips/falls and lands in the river. It would have been freezing at that time of day. The dog may not have seen hence doesn’t jump in. Undercurrents mixed with shock/panic/potential medical episode would result in drowning. The idea someone else is involved is slim, there were plenty of walkers/witnesses around, broad daylight and it’s not exactly easy access in and out.

 

[truthistheresomewher]

The tide was out that morning. At its lowest point. No fast flowing water to drown in? You can view the tidal tables

Didn’t suggest anything fast flowing/drowning not sure if you quoted wrong post but agree.

 

[msmarple99]

The river was at its lowest point that morning. The tide was out, so for drowning, at that hour, is the least likely time someone could drown in a tidal river if it was just muddy whilst tide was out.

I find it startling that it's tidal it's ,,9 miles from sea

 

[Inspector Evans]

Can anyone confirm if NB's FB profile has always been public? I searched for it when she first went missing and couldn't find it. Then a couple of days later it was at the top of my search results. It may just be that I'd missed it, but I was curious if it had initially been taken down?

It's been up for a few days as I had a look yesterday (very hard viewing given she is a mother and prominent were the centre park pics from mid December) <modsnip - discussion of FB comments>

Didn't actually realise she had a separate FB account for her work which was more recently updated talking about the latest bank base rates.

 

[ScalableHeights]

Honestly, I think the most obvious solution here is the most likely. In my opinion, what happened is that NB is walking the dog while dialled into a meeting, she's got the camera and mike turned off (this is standard in a lot of our remote meetings, but it's also possibly because she wasn't meant to be walking the dog during a meeting). My guess is she sits down to listen, lets the dog off the lead to run around and the dog jumps into the water. She panics, puts the phone down, goes to the river bank and slips. The dog is fine but the water is likely to be freezing and she gets into trouble - cold water shock would be a real danger, opening your mouth because of the cold temperature and swallowing water, wearing warm heavy clothes that are now soaking and drag you down... she doesn't need to have had a knock on the head or be tangled in clothes as I've seen other people suggest. It's much easier to drown than a lot of people think. Sadly, I think this is what has happened, and after a week I think she could be quite far away down river by now. I hope I'm wrong.

<modsnip - modding> IMHO

 

[MsMiniSleuth]

Questions about Nicola Bulley's disappearance has spawned questions

The riddle of mother-of-two Nicola Bulley - who 'vanished into thin air' while walking her dog Willow on Friday - has spawned 15 questions.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Why hasn’t Ms Bulley been found in the river?


The River Wyre empties into the Irish Sea at Fleetwood, 13 miles downstream. It is tidal for several miles, until the point where a weir is situated, close to where Ms Bulley disappeared. The water is slow-flowing, so if Ms Bulley fell into the river, it is difficult to understand why she has not been found – or how she could have got into trouble in the first place.


2. Could she swim?

Ms Bulley is described as a capable swimmer. She is familiar with the route, which she walks most mornings, and was dressed appropriately for the cold.

Why was the dog’s harness removed?

A disturbing puzzle is why Willow’s harness was found on the ground. If Ms Bulley had wanted to let the dog run free, she could have simply unclipped the lead. But for some reason, Willow’s harness had been removed.

4. Had the dog been in the water, and maybe Ms Bulley went in after her?

Willow appeared distressed but ‘bone dry’, according to the woman who found her. There was no sign of her having gone in the river.

 

[Cherrycola88]

I think that after an hour of roaming around that morning she had to go to the bathroom.
The bench was far enough from the car park/ a public restroom and nobody was in sight but I think she went toward the water to confirm she was “out of sight” while not worried about leaving her phone on the bench and not wanting to disconnect to the conference call so not wanting to put her phone in her pocket. Her dog may have followed her. I think she literally slipped down the riverbank when her pants were pulled down and she may have hit her head on the way down and been in bad position to regain balance or swim if her legs were entangled. I think they will eventually find her in the water.
No foul play just a very sad accident IMHO

I wondered about the possibility of her being "caught short", hence leaving her phone, but it seems illogical to me that someone - especially a woman - would go for a wee on the side of a riverbank. The risk of a passerby appearing, for one, coupled with the slipperiness of the riverbank. If I was caught short in that setting, I would most certainly seek a more discreet spot surrounded by shrubbery/growth.

 

[Itsgrimupnorth]

one of the highest causes of accidental death is drowning from shock/immersion on cold water. I think the most logical explanation at this point is that NB sits at the bench after letting the dog off the lead, leaves her phone on the bench and for whatever reason is near the river bank, who knows why, maybe a ball? Maybe just to stand near the edge? She either slips/falls and lands in the river. It would have been freezing at that time of day. The dog may not have seen hence doesn’t jump in. Undercurrents mixed with shock/panic/potential medical episode would result in drowning. The idea someone else is involved is slim, there were plenty of walkers/witnesses around, broad daylight and it’s not exactly easy access in and out.

In that scenario I don't know how much visible evidence there would be on the banking.

 

[Taskforce88]

Honestly, I think the most obvious solution here is the most likely. In my opinion, what happened is that NB is walking the dog while dialled into a meeting, she's got the camera and mike turned off (this is standard in a lot of our remote meetings, but it's also possibly because she wasn't meant to be walking the dog during a meeting). My guess is she sits down to listen, lets the dog off the lead to run around and the dog jumps into the water. She panics, puts the phone down, goes to the river bank and slips. The dog is fine but the water is likely to be freezing and she gets into trouble - cold water shock would be a real danger, opening your mouth because of the cold temperature and swallowing water, wearing warm heavy clothes that are now soaking and drag you down... she doesn't need to have had a knock on the head or be tangled in clothes as I've seen other people suggest. It's much easier to drown than a lot of people think. Sadly, I think this is what has happened, and after a week I think she could be quite far away down river by now. I hope I'm wrong.

The people on here throwing suspicion on family members need to stop. There isn't a single shred of evidence that I've seen that points anywhere near that direction and that kind of speculation isn't helpful to anyone, IMHO

A witness claimed that the dog was "bone dry".

Not sure if that is reliable now as so many things that MSM have reported have been incorrect.