Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #3

[infinit]

one of the highest causes of accidental death is drowning from shock/immersion on cold water. I think the most logical explanation at this point is that NB sits at the bench after letting the dog off the lead, leaves her phone on the bench and for whatever reason is near the river bank, who knows why, maybe a ball? Maybe just to stand near the edge? She either slips/falls and lands in the river. It would have been freezing at that time of day. The dog may not have seen hence doesn’t jump in. Undercurrents mixed with shock/panic/potential medical episode would result in drowning. The idea someone else is involved is slim, there were plenty of walkers/witnesses around, broad daylight and it’s not exactly easy access in and out.

It's what I think most likely happened (although I think she might have had a heart attack brought on by cold water shock or banged her head on the bottom - As it'd be hard to struggle so much in that depth of water.)

River Wyre at St Michaels: River level and flood alerts

River levels and flood alerts for the River Wyre at St Michaels, Lancashire

riverlevels.uk

A flow rate of 3.66m3/s is circa 219,600 litres per minute. No expert but I think on a river with a diameter of circa 20m and fairly shallow would be more than enough to push a body along.

JMO.

 

[dharmasarc]

Honestly, I think the most obvious solution here is the most likely. In my opinion, what happened is that NB is walking the dog while dialled into a meeting, she's got the camera and mike turned off (this is standard in a lot of our remote meetings, but it's also possibly because she wasn't meant to be walking the dog during a meeting). My guess is she sits down to listen, lets the dog off the lead to run around and the dog jumps into the water. She panics, puts the phone down, goes to the river bank and slips. The dog is fine but the water is likely to be freezing and she gets into trouble - cold water shock would be a real danger, opening your mouth because of the cold temperature and swallowing water, wearing warm heavy clothes that are now soaking and drag you down... she doesn't need to have had a knock on the head or be tangled in clothes as I've seen other people suggest. It's much easier to drown than a lot of people think. Sadly, I think this is what has happened, and after a week I think she could be quite far away down river by now. I hope I'm wrong.

The people on here throwing suspicion on family members need to stop. There isn't a single shred of evidence that I've seen that points anywhere near that direction and that kind of speculation isn't helpful to anyone, IMHO

Exactly. Some of the speculation is uncomfortable. The dog was actually found dry which means it wouldn’t have gone in the water, but I posted something very similar to you just a few posts up. I think she simply would have to fall in and cold water immersion leads to shock/panic/potential heart attack. 3rd most common cause of accidental death in adults.

 

[IKnowNowt]

It's been up for a few days as I had a look yesterday (very hard viewing given she is a mother and prominent were the centre park pics from mid December) <modsnip - discussion of FB comments>

Didn't actually realise she had a separate FB account for her work which was more recently updated talking about the latest bank base rates.

The videos made me cry. I've seen the posts and really think, if at all possible her profile should be taken down. Her family are suffering enough without the added spamming and comments.

 

[Marie A]

I wondered about the possibility of her being "caught short", hence leaving her phone, but it seems illogical to me that someone - especially a woman - would go for a wee on the side of a riverbank. The risk of a passerby appearing, for one, coupled with the slipperiness of the riverbank. If I was caught short in that setting, I would most certainly seek a more discreet spot surrounded by shrubbery/growth.

I completely agree but I think there were places along the river bank with bushes and short fences from the photos I’ve seen. I don‘t think the river bank was fully exposed all around.

 

[truthistheresomewher]

I feel it’s got to be unintentional in whatever scenario on the part of NB. <modsnip> JMO MOO (on my own opinion with the basis of a mental health therapist)

 

[Inspector Evans]

I think NB's partner cannot do right. I'm echoing another poster's point here, but if he gave a statement or appeal, every single flicker of his eyes, every shadow of an expression, every syllable he uttered would be offered up as "evidence" of something or other. Given the circumstances here, and the understandable desire for a breakthrough of sorts, it would be open season.

By way of example, the posts on this thread went swiftly from "why is PA not searching?" = suspicious, to, '"Oh, wait, he did search" = suspicious.

PA is likely to be following police advice anyway, one would think, and focusing on their daughters' needs primarily. I cannot fathom how someone in such an awful position manages much beyond basic functioning and providing love to his children. Throw suspicion his way was always going to happen though, and he will be horribly aware of that, alongside everything else.

Think someone summed it up well hours back. He's stepping up big time (in a situation no parent will ever want to imagine) and is doing everything he can humanely can to console the two daughters. Especially as I think deep down we all know the news that he will have to tell them eventually.

Not a Dad but I just can't process having to go through that so yes I think he should be given a huge pass for not wanting to be in full glare of press/cameras especially as it seems Nicola's family are o.k with doing interviews for now.

 

[IKnowNowt]

Five possible theories behind missing Nicola Bulley's disappearance

EXCLUSIVE: Criminologist Professor David Wilson has laid bare the steps detectives will be taking as the search for Nicola Bulley enters its seventh day.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Cuko]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed> I can't find it now but I'm pretty sure a tweet was posted earlier in the thread from the Police force that they processed the scene at the start.

Yes, I saw that too.

 

[3point5]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>

Can anyone confirm if NB's FB profile has always been public? I searched for it when she first went missing and couldn't find it. Then a couple of days later it was at the top of my search results. It may just be that I'd missed it, but I was curious if it had initially been taken down?

Someone in thread 1 pointed out she made it public a few months ago for a charity thing she shared. <modsnip - discussing SM comments>

Question: How long before a dog like willow would dry off? I've only ever had German Shepherds. Willow seems a lot shorter haired than any of my dogs. And if my GSD does anything physical, they can dry off fairly quickly with the body heat.

I know a witness has been quoted as saying the dog was "bone dry", but in this case, I'm inclined to take these statements with a pinch of salt.

In this weather it would be unlikely for any of mine or my families dogs to dry in the sort of time we're talking (we have Aussies and springers). They'd roll in the grass and be visibly dry perhaps, but if you touched them they'd still be sodden. They certainly wouldn't look 'bone dry' until they were back in the warm house for a while.

 

[ShireChe]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>

Thinking about this and it must be incredibly difficult being a witness when something like this happens. First of all it's very difficult to be accurate of a time, unless you have a reference point, I.e you know you left the house at a certain time or you can work out when you were last sure of the time and how long it takes you to get to the place where the sighting occured.

Yet giving an accurate time could be hugely important in ruling things out or in. I know the police will be well aware of errors in timing/estimations given by people and how easy our brains are tricked by assumptions and unconscious mistakes

 

[kittythehare]

<modsnip - quoted post removed>
Linked in thread already.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621155134561730569

 

[MsMiniSleuth]

Linked in thread already.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621155134561730569

Not a 'crime scene' though.

 

[Tanzanite]

I'm not usually given to putting together a series of unfortunate events to explain something baffling, but a post upthread just made me pause.

NB took lots of photographs on that walk. I'm picturing her doing just that - poised too near the edge of the water to get a photo of her dog before it goes into the water, or just to capture the morning. A sudden slip/going over on an ankle could cause a fracture (as I recently discovered). A far more innocuous injury than a head injury, but one that would be painful and mean it's harder to stay upright in that not-too-deep water, or get enough purchase to climb out.

Cold is a factor - I've also had the experience of hypothermia in the water (after much longer in the water admittedly). Doing anything really does become hard. In winter clothes, it would be much harder.

I don't know. I'm not sure I really see it, plus, it's just occurred to me that she was on her team meeting. Perhaps taking photos isn't even possible at the same time, but it would explain a non-dog related distraction and being momentarily blind to the edge of the river bank.

 

[Canadianmom2three]

Finally caught up again, it's a fast moving thread.

I still feel, as per my post in the first thread, that she is in the River and that something happened quickly and she left her phone on the bench and somehow got into the river. It could have been trying to help her dog, it could have been that she was near the steeper edge and had a medical episode, or she could have slipped.

Basically, I think it will come down to being accidental, and she is in the River. But I've been wrong before, and I'd love to be wrong again and she comes back safe and sound.

MOO

 

[Casseus]

I'm not usually given to putting together a series of unfortunate events to explain something baffling, but a post upthread just made me pause.

NB took lots of photographs on that walk. I'm picturing her doing just that - poised too near the edge of the water to get a photo of her dog before it goes into the water, or just to capture the morning. A sudden slip/going over on an ankle could cause a fracture (as I recently discovered). A far more innocuous injury than a head injury, but one that would be painful and mean it's harder to stay upright in that not-too-deep water, or get enough purchase to climb out.

Cold is a factor - I've also had the experience of hypothermia in the water (after much longer in the water admittedly). Doing anything really does become hard. In winter clothes, it would be much harder.

I don't know. I'm not sure I really see it, plus, it's just occurred to me that she was on her team meeting. Perhaps taking photos isn't even possible at the same time, but it would explain a non-dog related distraction and being momentarily blind to the edge of the river bank.

But her phone was found on the bench which is quite a distance from the river bank.

 

[Sarahaddison14]

Woman who police sought over Nicola Bulley's disappearance saw nothing

Police issued a public appeal for a woman seen in CCTV wearing a red coat on River Wyre around the time Ms Bulley vanished last Friday morning.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Danny Dnipro]

Details Matter

BBC reports:
'Ms Bulley's brown cocker spaniel Willow was found close to where she disappeared.'

Nicola Bulley: Key witness found in search for dog walker

The man, aged about 70, was seen in the River Wyre area around the time Nicola Bulley disappeared.

www.bbc.com

Sky News reports:
'Ms Bulley's dog, a springer spaniel called Willow, was found loose between the river and the bench'

Nicola Bulley: Potential witness sought by police in search for 45-year-old dog walker is traced

Police released a CCTV image of a possible witness they wanted to speak to who they believe might have been in the area at the time of Ms Bulley's disappearance.

news.sky.com

 

[kittythehare]

I wonder whether police are considering obtaining a reverse location/geofence warrant?
These can be considered controversial but also extremely useful
IF a crime is suspected.
They won't get one without pretty strong evidence, I imagine.
It's an option they may have.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/21/uk-officials-face-thorny-task-defining-legal-harmful-online-speech/

The new warrant: how US police mine Google for your location and search history

Geofence location and keyword warrants are new law enforcement tools that have privacy experts concerned

www.theguardian.com

 

[Deleted member 240694]

I think this second witness that saw NB at 09:10 is key, they knew her as well. So that is at least one person in that field that knew her. Why it is taking so long to verify the time ? The more i think about it the more confusing it gets. IMO

If NB is a victim of foul play, then IMO, the Upper Field would potentially be a crime scene, although there may well be additional crime scene locations involved.

 

[msmarple99]

Details Matter

BBC reports:
'Ms Bulley's brown cocker spaniel Willow was found close to where she disappeared.'

Nicola Bulley: Key witness found in search for dog walker

The man, aged about 70, was seen in the River Wyre area around the time Nicola Bulley disappeared.

www.bbc.com

Sky News reports:
'Ms Bulley's dog, a springer spaniel called Willow, was found loose between the river and the bench'

Nicola Bulley: Potential witness sought by police in search for 45-year-old dog walker is traced

Police released a CCTV image of a possible witness they wanted to speak to who they believe might have been in the area at the time of Ms Bulley's disappearance.

news.sky.com

To be fair they have the same traits/skills etc just size different