Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

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Thoughts
1. The reliability of the two witnesses is crucial, for this whole investigation. Timings etc pivot around their accounts. Only the police know how much they trust them
2. If I found a dog phone and harness near a river I’d be very alarmed that someone had gone in. I’m not too sure I’d have left the area, people don’t leave their precious dogs.
3. By 10.50 she was already very late from a half an hour dog walk, what alarm bells had started ringing at home
4. The police have doctors records, emails, friends info and texts , which may have crucial information they are keeping from us
5. Yes, if timings are correct, window of any foul play is tight. But, school starts same time every day and it appears she did the same walk, so I’m afraid if someone had an interest in her they would’ve been able to build up a very strong picture of where she was at certain times
6. The fact she did the walk so often may have led her to become complacent to the dangers
7. If there’s even a 5 percent chance she’s been abducted , here’s hoping the police get warrants immediately for all buildings around the area. The only way she could’ve disappeared is into a vehicle or a house near. Like Leah Croucher, if there had been a thorough search of all houses her story may have ended differently. We will never know.
8. If she is found in the river they may never know how or why she came to be in there
9. I think the police are understandably being very cautious.
 
JumpingFrog said:
Why wouldn't Willow go in to the river at the bench area? She could walk down the bank and enter the area where men are standing up wading with ease..
NB would also make a splash. Willow would smell her.

<modsnip - rude> imho!
Click to expand...

<modsnip> Perhaps she wasn’t allowed in that section due to the steepness? Perhaps she’s got stuck there before and doesn’t want to go in? No one knows this dog, and the family haven’t provided an insight into how they suspect willow would behave.

Ultimately the scenarios that could have happened are endless, <modsnip> IMO.
 
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Tyzer said:
Well and the fact that the police have no evidence for what they say happened.
Click to expand...
There is usually no clear ‘evidence’ for a drowning until a body is found. However, that does not prevent the police from deciding that a drowning is highly likely based on the circumstances of a missing person’s disappearance. That’s what’s happened in this case.
 
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JumpingFrog said:
Why wouldn't Willow go in to the river at the bench area? She could walk down the bank and enter the area where men are standing up wading with ease..
NB would also make a splash. Willow would smell her.

<modsnip - rude> imho!
Click to expand...
There are quite a few springer spaniel owners on this thread with lived experience of the breeds affinity for water. We're all saying the same thing. We're not discussing any other breed, just Willow.
Springers will jump anything, Springers will go into the deepest of thickets to find what's in there. They'll do anything to get in water because they love it so much.
This is not all dogs, wishful thinking or trying to create a happy situation.
It's a factor about this case that is not making sense.
 
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That she fell in the river is a very reasonable assumption to make, there is no doubt about that. There is a high probability that she did. However policing has to be based on evidence, not probabilities. We kept being told when Sarah Everard disappeared that lots of people just go missing and 'run away', whereas being abducted and murdered by a stranger is very rare. However the unusual was what had happened.

We're just watching now to see what happens. But assuming one thing has happened because it is most likely, without evidence, just seems a bit too complacent for my liking.
 
Tyzer said:
Well and the fact that the police have no evidence for what they say happened.
Click to expand...
Hi there. They have to piece together a picture and often don't have compelling evidence of something actually happening as such. Instead, they have decent evidence that she didn't leave and they have no evidence of foul play. To me, their hypothesis seems logical. I think the police know what they're doing. I follow lots of cases on here and people always feel that the police have got it wrong and don't have evidence, but normally they end up correct in the end. If they're not, fair enough: we'd all love for NB to be alive.
 
Tyzer said:
Well and the fact that the police have no evidence for what they say happened.
Click to expand...
That too, but I think skid type marks on the ground by the river may not always happen when a person falls in. I think it is just the most likely, logical reason for N.B.'s disappearance, knowing what we know now, IMO. That could change of course. I guess I can relate to the idea of her falling into the river because I am a clumsy, impulsive and fast moving individual, and I can totally see myself falling down a slanted riverside by tripping or whatever myself, lol.
 
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bringmeacupoft said:
<modsnip> Perhaps she wasn’t allowed in that section due to the steepness? Perhaps she’s got stuck there before and doesn’t want to go in? No one knows this dog, and the family haven’t provided an insight into how they suspect willow would behave.

Ultimately the scenarios that could have happened are endless, <modsnip> IMO.
Click to expand...
<modsnip> they're finding reasons to prove that she fell in the water in a place she's walked "1,000 times" before (quoth friends), with a spaniel next to her...a water baby, a fur baby. I have two of them and regardless of how much training they also like doing whatever they want at times...so it does not follow Willow would neither hear a splash and do nothing or not panic and go in. <modsnip> beyond any physical proof people have posted hundreds of posts trying to reconcile how NB has drowned, when police have stated it's one of several theories and at this time it's their main working one - but they admit they have no proof of this or abduction. There's no proof of anything. These posts are repetitive and easily accepting a fate which is unproven, and doesn't (and imho) give the dog any credit.
20 minutes after NB disappeared the dog is tethered by a (to her) stranger for over an hour.
Okay.
 
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Undecided said:
Thoughts
1. The reliability of the two witnesses is crucial, for this whole investigation. Timings etc pivot around their accounts. Only the police know how much they trust them
2. If I found a dog phone and harness near a river I’d be very alarmed that someone had gone in. I’m not too sure I’d have left the area, people don’t leave their precious dogs.
3. By 10.50 she was already very late from a half an hour dog walk, what alarm bells had started ringing at home
4. The police have doctors records, emails, friends info and texts , which may have crucial information they are keeping from us
5. Yes, if timings are correct, window of any foul play is tight. But, school starts same time every day and it appears she did the same walk, so I’m afraid if someone had an interest in her they would’ve been able to build up a very strong picture of where she was at certain times
6. The fact she did the walk so often may have led her to become complacent to the dangers
7. If there’s even a 5 percent chance she’s been abducted , here’s hoping the police get warrants immediately for all buildings around the area. The only way she could’ve disappeared is into a vehicle or a house near. Like Leah Croucher, if there had been a thorough search of all houses her story may have ended differently. We will never know.
8. If she is found in the river they may never know how or why she came to be in there
9. I think the police are understandably being very cautious.
Click to expand...
I 100% agree with you about number 1 above - are the witnesses reliable and telling the truth. The witness at 9.10 could have been the perp for all we know - the witnesses that found the dog could be involved too and fabricated the timings to suit them. JMO.
 
kittythehare said:
There are quite a few springer spaniel owners on this thread with lived experience of the breeds affinity for water. We're all saying the same thing. We're not discussing any other breed, just Willow.
Springers will jump anything, Springers will go into the deepest of thickets to find what's in there. They'll do anything to get in water because they love it so much.
This is not all dogs, wishful thinking or trying to create a happy situation.
It's a factor about this case that is not making sense.
Click to expand...
<modsnip - rude> She could doggy paddle the bench area easily..
ETA: there's posts saying things that suggest Willow is either submissive or a bit dim, I don't buy either personally
Again no proof that Nicola tripped, slid, tumbled - no imprint down there...no surfaced Fitbit, necklace, welly...3 hours later the river is searched
People are posting making scenarios based on the presser where police state drowning is their main working theory, but there's no evidence of any theory being substantial, yet
This is Websleuths - a million ideas about why Nikki could be at the bank edge or how she may have tumbled, how Willow fits in, are accepting something that is unsubstantiated and admittedly a forerunner so far...just repetitive and not critical, imho jmo etc
 
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Officer Dibble said:
It was confirmed today in the big update by Supt Riley the dog was running between the bench and the gate
Click to expand...
Understandably if Willow was alone in the bench area she would be running around. Though (hypothetically speaking) could indicate that if the dog was 'intentionally' left at the bench area by someone, they left via the gate? Do we know if this bench area is enclosed or is there open access along the river path towards the fields?
 
Bedouin said:
IMO this is a tragic accident. I’d guess, Willow does a poo near the waters edge, Nicola puts her phone on the bench and gets out the poo bag, kneels to pick up the poo and her wellington gets caught in the long jacket and she looses balance.
Click to expand...
I can relate to that scenario!
 
I
DFR3217 said:
That she fell in the river is a very reasonable assumption to make, there is no doubt about that. There is a high probability that she did. However policing has to be based on evidence, not probabilities. We kept being told when Sarah Everard disappeared that lots of people just go missing and 'run away', whereas being abducted and murdered by a stranger is very rare. However the unusual was what had happened.

We're just watching now to see what happens. But assuming one thing has happened because it is most likely, without evidence, just seems a bit too complacent for my liking.
Click to expand...
The police won’t be assuming anything. They will still be considering all other possibilities.
 
Batearedfreak said:
Based on my dogs obsession with their tennis balls, right up until something more exciting happens, and that Willow often has a ball in her mouth in Nicola's photos, I think the dog dropped the ball. It rolled down the embankment and Nicola went to fetch it. I've lost count of the times I've had to retrieve balls my dogs have dropped. I think she slipped. The dog didn't go into the water because she's not Lassie. Not meaning to be snarky, but my dogs accept I do stuff they aren't required to be involved in. Or I wonder if the dog dropped the ball and was distracted by something more immediately interesting. She may therefore not even have seen Nicola enter the water. Horrific situation in any case.
Click to expand...
But wouldn't you say to your dog 'go get your ball' as opposed to going down a steepish muddy slope or embankment towards a river to get it yourself?
 
Maxo said:
Latest from Nicola's sister - I still maintain that there are still other sides to the investigation that we are not privy to yet. JMO

www.dailymail.co.uk

Nicola Bulley's family find police river theory 'hard to contemplate'

Police expressed concerns that the missing mother-of-two may have fallen in the icy cold water on River Wyre while trying to retrieve her dog Willow's tennis ball.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
Click to expand...
“..and no footprints were found on the bank”

If she went in the river, how is this possible in that environment?
 
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