Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #5

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The lack of cctv/street cam footage of her on the day is a concern for me. Not one photo or video of her yet released. They’re either not wanting to release it yet or they don’t have any. After all this time you’d think an actual photo/video would really help jog people’s memories.
 

Lancashire Police​

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Earlier this evening as part of our search for Nicola Bulley, we put out an appeal to find a witness in St Michael’s on Wyre.
We are pleased to say that the woman came forward very quickly and we must stress that she was very much being treated as a witness and was one of many people in St Michael’s on Friday, January 27th.
Our enquiries to find Nicola are extensive and will include speaking to as many members of the public as possible.
The speculation and abuse on social media aimed at some people who are merely assisting our enquiry is totally unacceptable. We would urge people to remember that we are investigating the disappearance of Nicola, and the priority is Nicola and her family. We want to find her and provide answers to her family.
As part of the intensive search for Nicola, we are again asking for drivers for dash cam footage from the Blackpool Road/Garstang Road area of St Michael’s on Friday, January 27, between 9am and 10am.
Whilst you may not think that you hold any relevant information, it is really important that we gather as much footage as possible in the area that morning so we can review every piece meticulously to establish whether Nicola can be seen.
We know from the footage we are currently reviewing, that this is a busy road, particularly at that time in the morning.
There will be many people who were in that area at the time who may not think they can help, we would urge you not to make that decision yourself and to come forward so we can have as much material as possible to assist the investigation.
May be an image of 1 person, outdoors and tree

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Detective_Popcorn said:
Hi all. First post. Been following the case and these threads for a few days. My hypothesis, attempting to accomodate many of the points and questions being endlessly debated....

Nicola & Willow are walking back along the river, lower field, towards the bench, taking the same route we know (strava history) she typically followed.

Something in the water attracts her attention. Something odd floating past? Maybe an animal in distress? Could be anything, we don't know. Probably not the ball everyone seems fixated with, but could be that too. Whatever. Let's say she is compelled towards the water for...some reason. We have all done this.

She doesn't want Willow in the water. Doesn't want the dog near...whatever it is. Or just doesn't want the hassle of wet dog in the car. So tells Willow "NO.. STAY." Dog obeys, of course.

Bank is too steep for N to be holding her phone, or even have it in her pocket, she foresees possibility she could slip and end up in the water. So places the phone on the bench. For me this point is telling. If abduction, way more likely perp would want her phone in the water asap imo. Harness is left close by too, either bench or ground, less important.

Internal phone accelerometer will show to the second when the device was placed on bench and stopped moving after that i.e. the last time N touched it. Police seemed certain on these timings. Gyro may also rule out if the phone had suffered any sort of impact drop earlier (i.e if N had been attacked) or indicate if the phone movement that morning remained natural and consistent with her usual walk. GPS data will confirm if she was following her normal path, and also show what other phones were close by to her in the field or not at the time. Fitbit had reportedly not synched for days so useless until they recover the physical unit.

So N picks her way down bank. Gets to water's edge, reaches for something and... falls into water. Or trips and stumbles in before this. Or vertigo after bending down and loses balance. I wouldn't expect to see obvious signs of a slip, recent photos of the bank show it to be way more grassy/weedy than I originally assumed). She is incapacitated. Instant cold water shock, instinctive gasp for air and inhales a lungful of water, no scream. Or maybe sudden cardiac arrest. Or hits head and knocked out. Her clothes hamper her in the water, esp the long wraparound gilet and wellies which would seriously restrict leg movement. Possibly even contributed to her fall. She would not have to drift far to be unsighted from the bank, as it happens there are tight bends in the river at just this spot. We know the water is deep here too (warning signs around the bench, anglers map posted in any earlier thread), and therefore usually faster flowing.

Dog remains in the field as instructed but becomes agitated as N does not come back up. If dog heads towards gate (unclear from reporting) this is probably because this is where the usual walk with N would go, and also where they came in 30-40 mins earlier, so N's scent would still be there. Phone is found on bench. Teams call still connected, N may even still have been listening on airpods as she slipped under....

The ONLY 'evidence' missing from this type of sceanario is the body has not yet been recovered. Which is NOT AT ALL unusual for persons falling into rivers. In MANY cases it is weeks or sometimes months for the water to give up the body, indeed this is normal/expected.

If, on the other hand, we are to speculate third party involvement, then (caveat- all "as far as we know", so far): cctv/dashcam trawls and appeals have drawn a blank; no eyewitness reports of any suspicious individual or vehicle in the area have been reported; no screams heard at the time; no dog barking; no blood found; no torn/discarded clothing or signs of sexual assault found; nothing (perp dna/fingerprints) found on phone; no motive against N in her personal life; any phones in the area from gps likely traced/eliminated.... Etc etc etc. There's literally nothing. You'd have thought there would have to be... something. It just seems so unbelievably strange that there would be zero evidence at all if this was the case.

TLDR: Person goes missing next to a dangerous body of water, circumstances consistent with accident, zero evidence for a more complex/third party explanation, Occam's razor. I am with Team Police at this point.
Click to expand...
I agree with all you’ve said and despite a few weak reservations I believe the police are right in that Nikki fell into the river. However, as she was listening in to a Teams work meeting whilst sitting on the bench, whatever made her rush to the edge of the bank must have been something urgent. I can’t see anyone dropping everything, leaving listening in to her works meeting on account of, say, a bird or small wild animal floating in the river. It isn’t as though she could have saved it, so whatever made her rush down there must have been something more significant than just a bird or a ball.
 
JeremyBentham said:
The lack of cctv/street cam footage of her on the day is a concern for me. Not one photo or video of her yet released. They’re either not wanting to release it yet or they don’t have any. After all this time you’d think an actual photo/video would really help jog people’s memories.
Click to expand...
I find this strange too. If the doorbell cams - or whatever it was that have yielded the witness images - didn’t capture Nicola, that seems odd.

But the police having cctv images of her and not releasing them also seems odd.
 
EyeSpyU said:
I agree with all you’ve said and despite a few weak reservations I believe the police are right in that Nikki fell into the river. However, as she was listening in to a Teams work meeting whilst sitting on the bench, whatever made her rush to the edge of the bank must have been something urgent. I can’t see anyone dropping everything, leaving listening in to her works meeting on account of, say, a bird or small wild animal floating in the river. It isn’t as though she could have saved it, so whatever made her rush down there must have been something more significant than just a bird or a ball.
Click to expand...
It was more that she ran to stop the dog attacking something, rather than something floating in the river. Something I’ve experienced before, not an overly passionate nature lover but I also couldn’t sit by watching my dog killing something

Definitely something I would have thrown my phone, bag etc down for from personal experience (again, just my own option/loose theory as to why she would be near the waters edge at all)
 
Sara11272 said:
I find this strange too. If the doorbell cams - or whatever it was that have yielded the witness images - didn’t capture Nicola, that seems odd.

But the police having cctv images of her and not releasing them also seems odd.
Click to expand...
I think the same. If they had them it would help visually clarify what she was wearing to potential witnesses.
 
Detective_Popcorn said:
Hi all. First post. Been following the case and these threads for a few days. My hypothesis, attempting to accomodate many of the points and questions being endlessly debated....

Nicola & Willow are walking back along the river, lower field, towards the bench, taking the same route we know (strava history) she typically followed.

Something in the water attracts her attention. Something odd floating past? Maybe an animal in distress? Could be anything, we don't know. Probably not the ball everyone seems fixated with, but could be that too. Whatever. Let's say she is compelled towards the water for...some reason. We have all done this.

She doesn't want Willow in the water. Doesn't want the dog near...whatever it is. Or just doesn't want the hassle of wet dog in the car. So tells Willow "NO.. STAY." Dog obeys, of course.

Bank is too steep for N to be holding her phone, or even have it in her pocket, she foresees possibility she could slip and end up in the water. So places the phone on the bench. For me this point is telling. If abduction, way more likely perp would want her phone in the water asap imo. Harness is left close by too, either bench or ground, less important.

Internal phone accelerometer will show to the second when the device was placed on bench and stopped moving after that i.e. the last time N touched it. Police seemed certain on these timings. Gyro may also rule out if the phone had suffered any sort of impact drop earlier (i.e if N had been attacked) or indicate if the phone movement that morning remained natural and consistent with her usual walk. GPS data will confirm if she was following her normal path, and also show what other phones were close by to her in the field or not at the time. Fitbit had reportedly not synched for days so useless until they recover the physical unit.

So N picks her way down bank. Gets to water's edge, reaches for something and... falls into water. Or trips and stumbles in before this. Or vertigo after bending down and loses balance. I wouldn't expect to see obvious signs of a slip, recent photos of the bank show it to be way more grassy/weedy than I originally assumed). She is incapacitated. Instant cold water shock, instinctive gasp for air and inhales a lungful of water, no scream. Or maybe sudden cardiac arrest. Or hits head and knocked out. Her clothes hamper her in the water, esp the long wraparound gilet and wellies which would seriously restrict leg movement. Possibly even contributed to her fall. She would not have to drift far to be unsighted from the bank, as it happens there are tight bends in the river at just this spot. We know the water is deep here too (warning signs around the bench, anglers map posted in any earlier thread), and therefore usually faster flowing.

Dog remains in the field as instructed but becomes agitated as N does not come back up. If dog heads towards gate (unclear from reporting) this is probably because this is where the usual walk with N would go, and also where they came in 30-40 mins earlier, so N's scent would still be there. Phone is found on bench. Teams call still connected, N may even still have been listening on airpods as she slipped under....

The ONLY 'evidence' missing from this type of sceanario is the body has not yet been recovered. Which is NOT AT ALL unusual for persons falling into rivers. In MANY cases it is weeks or sometimes months for the water to give up the body, indeed this is normal/expected.

If, on the other hand, we are to speculate third party involvement, then (caveat- all "as far as we know", so far): cctv/dashcam trawls and appeals have drawn a blank; no eyewitness reports of any suspicious individual or vehicle in the area have been reported; no screams heard at the time; no dog barking; no blood found; no torn/discarded clothing or signs of sexual assault found; nothing (perp dna/fingerprints) found on phone; no motive against N in her personal life; any phones in the area from gps likely traced/eliminated.... Etc etc etc. There's literally nothing. You'd have thought there would have to be... something. It just seems so unbelievably strange that there would be zero evidence at all if this was the case.

TLDR: Person goes missing next to a dangerous body of water, circumstances consistent with accident, zero evidence for a more complex/third party explanation, Occam's razor. I am with Team Police at this point.
Click to expand...
I agree regarding the gyroscope and accelerometer, and in fact posted this some pages back but it appears noone noticed. This will be the key as to whether the phone was dropped, or placed down.
 
ginnyw said:
It's a really interesting theory with lots to think about. The one thing I can't quite grasp is what on earth would be so compelling in the river to cause somebody to put their phone down unguarded, leave their dog, pick their way down a slippery river bank on a freezing cold day etc. That bit I can't quite see.
Click to expand...
Say she has EarPod style headphones in. Think she sees something. Puts phone down on bench, still connected to call, walks down to river bank. Very plausible. I often wander about with mine in, whilst semi concentrating on work calls.
 
Does anyone remember what the 8.43 am sighting at the beginning of the walk was? Was it a person or CCTV/dashcam?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looking at the photos of the bench, the distance to the (steep) slope of the riverbank is nothing at all. Also of note is that it is set on paving slabs which aren’t all flush with the ground. It is perfectly feasible that she got up, possibly to put the harness on willow, stood on the uneven edge of a slab which caused her to lose her balance, resulting in her dropping the harness and falling forward down into the river. It would be difficult to right yourself with a long, zipped up gilet restricting your legs. The ground also looks very compacted meaning it is hard and wouldn’t necessarily leave prints or significant marks. Any slight marks that might have been made could then have been trodden over by her others when they attended the scene to look for her. JMO.21D70B00-237B-49F6-8A7B-46E66CD4B1F9.jpeg22F66DD4-7E68-4ACD-8C6A-D6F36F7E53F7.jpegFBD194C2-0F0E-442F-897D-0952025828A5.jpeg577B1649-2A14-4FBB-806A-B790361C4D86.jpeg
 
Vadermom said:
It was more that she ran to stop the dog attacking something, rather than something floating in the river. Something I’ve experienced before, not an overly passionate nature lover but I also couldn’t sit by watching my dog killing something

Definitely something I would have thrown my phone, bag etc down for from personal experience (again, just my own option/loose theory as to why she would be near the waters edge at all)
Click to expand...
I understand where you’re coming from but Cocker spaniels are known for being gentle, easy-going and affectionate. They tend to be non-aggressive toward other animals and people, and are excellent with children too. Of course, any dog can “turn”, but I think it would be unlikely Willow suddenly became aggressive to another animal. It’s possible another dog tried to attack Willow, but if that were the case the owner of that other dog would have been witness to it all.

So whilst I agree with much of what you say, whatever made Nikki dash down to the edge of the bank must have been something else. That’s JMO. I could be totally wrong…
 
dotr said:
Glad that the Ws Mods keep on top of this sort of thing!
ribm (respectfully initialed by me)
www.bbc.com

Vile speculation hurtful to Nicola Bulley's family, friend says

Nicola Bulley’s friend says speculation online is hurtful as police condemn social media abuse.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
Feb 5 2023
''Ms Bulley's disappearance has drawn a lot of attention on social media with thousands of people commenting on the ongoing search, many sending their love and prayers to her family and wishing her home safely.
But some people have been speculating about what might have happened by discussing the family's finances and relationships.

Ms G told BBC North West Tonight: "The speculation is massive. I mean it's human nature - everyone's going to have their thoughts, their theories, everyone will be speculating.
"But to see some of the vile speculation online - some of the theories that are incredibly, incredibly hurtful - I don't think people are realising that the family are sitting at home and are able to access and see all of that."
She said she was concerned that "as [Ms Bulley's daughters] get older, they will be able to look back and they will be able to see everything that was said".

''Ms Bulley's friend, T A wrote on Facebook that "inappropriate comments" online had been causing "hurt and distress".
She said Ms Bulley was an "incredibly strong swimmer", she had not taken a ball out on dog walks for a while and would always remove the dog's harness at the gate.
Ms Bulley regularly had her phone on loud speaker and the dog had been dry when it was found, she added.
She urged everyone to show the family "as much positivity as possible please".
Click to expand...
I would imagine if Nikki deliberately jumped into the river to rescue something she’d have removed her Gillette and coat first.

I really can’t see her doing that unless it was a person in the river, and as no other person was in the river I think that can be ruled out.

If she slipped/fell into the river it was accidental.
 
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