Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #6

[Fishwick]

I agree not probable. Just nags at me - was she actually seen on the call?
I don’t use Teams - do you just click on the app and then meeting in your phone?
I use Webex and don’t need to login in when it’s on my phone.

You wouldn't need additional credentials if her phone was unlocked - there would be a pop-up when the meeting starts and simply click to join.

 

[justicepeace]

You wouldn't need additional credentials if her phone was unlocked - there would be a pop-up when the meeting starts and simply click to join.

But someone would also have had to send the email to her boss minutes before her connecting to teams. Not impossible that someone had her phone of course at this time, just unrealistic from what we know. Someone having her phone later is far more probable for me but not initially, IMO JMO.

 

[gill_on_the_green_hill]

I just completed a deep dive of the press conference on this thread, and have skimmed most of the rest of the posts. My reading is that:
a. The dog has gone down towards the steep part leading to the river bank, and behaved in a way so as to cause the missing person to panic.
b. In this situation, getting the dog out of perceived trouble has been more important than any teams call, and the phone may have fallen to the ground.
c. The MP (sorry I wish to distance myself rather than pretend to be familiar) has slipped or lost footing when trying to help the dog, potentially sustaining an injury.
d. Realising the predicament, the MP has released the dog from the harness which may have been on, and thrown it back towards the path - or the dog has grabbed the harness and taken it down towards the river in a hopeless attempt to re-engage the owner.
e. MP has done best to swim, with the current of the river, at some point has gotten out of the river, or has remained in the water.
f. Hypothermia has resulted from the cold.
g. With great regret, I conclude that either unconsciousness has resulted and the MP has been carried further than expected, or has exited the river at some point much further than expected, and succumbed to hypothermia.
h. In the best case, the MP is surviving but severely impaired or injured. If hypothermia set in due to the cold, it would be extremely difficult in the circumstances to recover core body temperature.

There are obviously alternative hypotheses, but this is the one that came to mind. I sincerely hope that the MP is found as soon as possible.

JMO MOO great post mucbetam. I’ve read all the threads regarding this MP <modsnip> Hoping the MP is found in the river soon which is where common sense dictates she is.

 

[ginnyw]

I'm not disparaging Nicola here, but i was thinking how generic she looked that day - she also had her distinctive blonde hair tied back into a ponytail. Could all the witnesses categorically say it was actually Nicola they saw from such a distance away?

We haven't seen any CCTV footage of Nicola arriving at the school or walking from her car in the school car park. You would hope that the school had CCTV.

The initial woman to see the loose dog and phone on the bench must've had to put the harness on the dog and then attach the lead, and then secure the lead to the bench...it's interesting that she bothered if she was in a hurry. I certainly wouldn't have touched someone else's dog or belongings personally. <modsnip>

Maybe Nicola was abducted before she got to the bench and was taken into a field.

Does it look like there are a pair of crutches in the back of the car to anyone else?

To me it looks like a child's scooter in the back of the car and also I think I can see a front dog leg, presumably Max. I guess we're all going to see something slightly different due to the grainy quality of the doorbell camera footage.

 

[StinReboog]

I agree not probable. Just nags at me - was she actually seen on the call?
I don’t use Teams - do you just click on the app and then meeting in your phone?
I use Webex and don’t need to login in when it’s on my phone.

I don't know if it matters if she was actually seen or not. She logged on on her phone. And the last sighting of her was after that time so she had to have been the one logging on.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

I think we discussed this very early on in thread 1 - the fact that the policewoman contradicted herself about where the dog was found. I knew there was a longer video of the first press conference. At the start she says the dog was found near the bench and at the end she says the dog was found some distance away (7.10 on video)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622507430335725568

This is so important, phone easier to move than a dog and the dogs behaviour will be really telling. I guess we go on the more recent press conference? Is confusing though.

 

[PeggyHenry]

I agree not probable. Just nags at me - was she actually seen on the call?
I don’t use Teams - do you just click on the app and then meeting in your phone?
I use Webex and don’t need to login in when it’s on my phone.

I use teams and zoom but on a desktop pc usually . I tend to click on a link in an email to get in. I think that this isn’t necessary required though.
I’m rarely seen on my meetings so in theory, unless I actually want to contribute, someone could easily be attending on my behalf.
I think it’s a valid question that hopefully the police have asked… was there evidence she actually initiated attendance at meeting?
I suspect not, although I’m inclined to think she did dial in. I do think she met someone though … and I don’t think she walked her usual route

 

[Normanly]

I'm new here but having been reading through the post about NB. IMO NB was probably never sitting on the bench. Her family have said it was usual for them to remove harness at the gate and put back on at the gate. If I was on a work call and needed to put my dogs harness back on I would need both hands. I would therefore put the phone down on the bench so I could still hear the call. Finding the harness between the bench and river on the floor may be where she was standing and calling Willow back over to put the harness on. This is when something out of the ordinary must have happened:

1. NB had some kind of medical situation which made her lose balance and she fell in the river
2. NB was crouching down with the harness or standing and lost balance and slipped into the river
3 Willow wouldn't come over to put harness on so NB went down to fetch her and again lost balance and fell in river
4 A third party was somehow involved at this point and something sinister happened to NB when distracted.

There doesn't appear to be any real evidence for any scenario; signs of a struggle, slip marks on riverbank. It is literally like she vanished.

On news reports the river does not look particularly fast flowing at the moment, however the angling map does call that spot 'deep hole' which is quite concerning if she did fall in at the point by the bench.

 

[GTB72]

I've never had a dog, but know how loyal and smart they can be. It is reasonable to expect that if the dog had seen her fall in, it would be by the actual riverside barking away, as is the last place it saw her? So maybe the dog didn't see the event, and was away in the field running around, so went back to the last place it saw her, which was the bench.

If the later, it's possible the dog wasn't the cause of her going down to the bank.

If the dog has seen NB going into the water, presuming NB has, wouldn't the dog be running between the river and the bench rather than the bench and the gate?

Surely when the witness arrived the dog would run down to the riverbank barking loudly to draw attention to the fact she had fallen in.

Edited by me. Apologies I just seem to have repeated what you have said without adding anything new.

 

[PeggyHenry]

I use teams and zoom but on a desktop pc usually . I tend to click on a link in an email to get in. I think that this isn’t necessary required though.
I’m rarely seen on my meetings so in theory, unless I actually want to contribute, someone could easily be attending on my behalf.
I think it’s a valid question that hopefully the police have asked… was there evidence she actually initiated attendance at meeting?
I suspect not, although I’m inclined to think she did dial in. I do think she met someone though … and I don’t think she walked her usual route

She met her boss allegedly who drove a longish distance to Hardang to see her on Thursday evening. Was this a one to one meet? She then had an important zoom meeting straight after prompting her to ask her parents to stay longer to babysit.
Next morning she emails boss before 9 am

 

[LemonMint]

An article about Willow’s possible reaction here:

Nicola Bulley's dog likely 'panicked' when she went missing

Ross McCarthy says the dog likely went into 'fight or flight' mode if the police's theory is correct

www.cornwalllive.com

I have been trying to follow this fast moving thread the best I can but apologies if this one has been posted already.

 

[ayrshireguy]

I wonder if Willow was checked for third-party DNA.

 

[StinReboog]

I just completed a deep dive of the press conference on this thread, and have skimmed most of the rest of the posts. My reading is that:
a. The dog has gone down towards the steep part leading to the river bank, and behaved in a way so as to cause the missing person to panic.
b. In this situation, getting the dog out of perceived trouble has been more important than any teams call, and the phone may have fallen to the ground.
c. The MP (sorry I wish to distance myself rather than pretend to be familiar) has slipped or lost footing when trying to help the dog, potentially sustaining an injury.
d. Realising the predicament, the MP has released the dog from the harness which may have been on, and thrown it back towards the path - or the dog has grabbed the harness and taken it down towards the river in a hopeless attempt to re-engage the owner.
e. MP has done best to swim, with the current of the river, at some point has gotten out of the river, or has remained in the water.
f. Hypothermia has resulted from the cold.
g. With great regret, I conclude that either unconsciousness has resulted and the MP has been carried further than expected, or has exited the river at some point much further than expected, and succumbed to hypothermia.
h. In the best case, the MP is surviving but severely impaired or injured. If hypothermia set in due to the cold, it would be extremely difficult in the circumstances to recover core body temperature.

There are obviously alternative hypotheses, but this is the one that came to mind. I sincerely hope that the MP is found as soon as possible.

yes. I think something like that is possible. and regardless of how. The more I read and the longer this goes on, it seems obvious the police have been right all along and somehow she has ended up in the river. The police of course have all the information and have interviewed witnesses, built up a profile of the MP. And somehow the river has concealed her, whether it be crevices, hidden shelves etc. They are complex environments and this is a significant enough river. Or the police focused their search on the vicinity of the disappearance and the MP had moved far further away than they expected. By now who knows. We can hope that the new technology and team can shed some light.

 

[ayrshireguy]

I'm new here but having been reading through the post about NB. IMO NB was probably never sitting on the bench. Her family have said it was usual for them to remove harness at the gate and put back on at the gate. If I was on a work call and needed to put my dogs harness back on I would need both hands. I would therefore put the phone down on the bench so I could still hear the call. Finding the harness between the bench and river on the floor may be where she was standing and calling Willow back over to put the harness on. This is when something out of the ordinary must have happened:

1. NB had some kind of medical situation which made her lose balance and she fell in the river
2. NB was crouching down with the harness or standing and lost balance and slipped into the river
3 Willow wouldn't come over to put harness on so NB went down to fetch her and again lost balance and fell in river
4 A third party was somehow involved at this point and something sinister happened to NB when distracted.

There doesn't appear to be any real evidence for any scenario; signs of a struggle, slip marks on riverbank. It is literally like she vanished.

On news reports the river does not look particularly fast flowing at the moment, however the angling map does call that spot 'deep hole' which is quite concerning if she did fall in at the point by the bench.

All theories are possible. There were however no clear signs of a slip on that part of the river bank.

 

[IKnowNowt]

I've never had a dog, but know how loyal and smart they can be. It is reasonable to expect that if the dog had seen her fall in, it would be by the actual riverside barking away, as is the last place it saw her? So maybe the dog didn't see the event, and was away in the field running around, so went back to the last place it saw her, which was the bench.

If the later, it's possible the dog wasn't the cause of her going down to the bank.

I've had dogs all my life and found them to be very individual. Some follow your every move, almost clingy, others are very independent... stubbornly so. Spaniels, being hunting dogs, are often seen charging about on the scent of something, especially Springers, who have boundless energy.

 

[SpursGyal]

I wonder if Willow was checked for third-party DNA.

Considering she had come into contact with potentially a few people between Nicola going missing and PA arriving at the scene/ringing police it’s highly unlikely.

 

[WestLondoner]

Having had a number of dogs, I can report that when lively outdoorsy-type dogs like spaniels are bouncing happily around on a walk, they are entirely capable of entangling themselves with your feet. This is the likeliest thing for me. Dog disappears over edge of bank; NB puts phone down, stands up and moves towards edge to check the dog's not in trouble; dog reappears unexpectedly right under and between her feet; she overbalances. A spaniel is the perfect trip height, and it moves around too, so it may trip you again as you're recovering from the first stumble.

Or something else.

The issue, however, surely isn't whether we understand how NB came to fall into the river if that is what happened. The actual mystery surely is why, in that case, she hasn't yet been found after ten days.

Given the commendably swift way the police mobilised to search for her, the shallowness of the river, the apparently slow current, the near 90-degree bend that you'd think would cause the current to send an unconscious person into the bank, and the weir downstream that ought to have acted at least as a delay, it's utterly, utterly mystifying that there's been no sign of her. You'd think she would have been located in a matter of hours.

There have been observations in these threads to the effect that you can drown in 40cm of water, and also that the river bottom is muddy and thus could hide a body. I can get my head around either of these points individually, but not together. You could drown in that depth of water, but only if you're prone in it. You could sink quite a long way into bottom mud if you jump into feet first, i.e. only if you aren't prone in it. In fact, IIRC, the recommended way to get out of quicksand is to try to float up onto your back so you stop sinking. So I cannot fathom how someone who has drowned can be submerged into mud. It would take considerable force to push a prone body into mud and nothing about that stretch of water looks like this is feasible.

About 250,000 people go missing every year but 99.something per cent turn up again very quickly. None of them goes missing from a known place in a ten-minute window. It's just unfathomable.

 

[Normal Norm]

I've never had a dog, but know how loyal and smart they can be. It is reasonable to expect that if the dog had seen her fall in, it would be by the actual riverside barking away, as is the last place it saw her? So maybe the dog didn't see the event, and was away in the field running around, so went back to the last place it saw her, which was the bench.

If the later, it's possible the dog wasn't the cause of her going down to the bank.

For the reasons you explain, I don't think Willow saw Nicola fall into the river. In fact, if Willow had been anywhere in the lower field (other than on the embankment itself), she wouldn't have seen Nicola by the river. The link below shows the view from the north-east corner of the lower field, looking in a south-westerly direction to the bench. Any view of the river is hidden by the embankment.

Link to Google Earth

 

[cottonweaver]

I've never had a dog, but know how loyal and smart they can be. It is reasonable to expect that if the dog had seen her fall in, it would be by the actual riverside barking away, as is the last place it saw her? So maybe the dog didn't see the event, and was away in the field running around, so went back to the last place it saw her, which was the bench.

If the later, it's possible the dog wasn't the cause of her going down to the bank.

very possible
Also the location where she was last present would still be the area with most of her scent ( from items she left or areas she'd touched) so dog likely to return to that based on her nose.

'Dogs use smell to 'tell time,' in some sense, because a more recently laid odor smells stronger, and an older odor smells weaker.” 'Dogs Smell Time | Exploratorium

There are some awful research findings out there. Awful as in average time from drowning to sinking to the bottom - 5 seconds - and average time of entering cold water & being incapacitated due to hypothermia including confusion in the event you haven't already swallowed lungful of water

Cold Water Survival - Seo Title

Cold Water What is it? It is difficult even for an expert to define. It is estimated to be around and under the temperature of 70 degrees. However, this will vary in each case due to the specific circumstances and physical condition of the person involved. What Happens In Cold Water? Many of...

ussartf.org

https://journalofsar.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Time-Required-For-a-Drowning-Victim-to-Reach-Bottom.pdf

 

[ginnyw]

I feel so much for the family. How nerve-wracking and traumatic for them as they wait to see what results come from the new sonar scans of the river. As her friend Emma White said this morning, they don't want NB to be found in the water, of course. But that might also mean that closure will never happen. I feel really nervous today thinking of what might or might not be clearer by the end of today.

Friends hope specialist rescue team will give Nicola Bulley’s family answers