Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[msmarple99]

I think I'd sooner carry the dog for 3 minutes or walk it off the lead to car rather then get in a freezing deep river. Did the dog not have a collar it seems to in pics I have seen on other days

Yes she did with a tag IMO

 

[kittythehare]

From the latest conference she says:

“We know from telephony work that her phone was located on the bench at 09:20.”

From telephony work they can tell if a phone is on a bench? It doesn’t say it was found/seen on the bench.

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UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

Telephony work no doubt includes what the first witness saw as well as tracing, fingerprinting etc.

 

[Truthfinder01]

Hey, new here.

Did they ever find the dogs ball? TIA

 

[Deleted member 320164]

I’ll watch again as I’m sure the Superintendent said NB’s phone was found on the bench at 09:20

No the phone was found at 9.35am.

Some reports say it was on the bench some, say it was on the ground 2 feet from the bench.

The police say the signal puts the phone at the bench at 9.20am.

The police use ‘on and ‘at and ‘in the area’ of the bench interchangeably.

A journalist really needs to clear this up.

This has been done to death now.

 

[PineTreeSleuther]

Maybe evidence of somebody trying to get out.

This is a very interesting theory.

 

[todders]

Hey, new here.

Did they ever find the dogs ball? TIA

It wasnt something something NB took out any longer as willow became to focussed on it. IMO

Missing Nicola Bulley's friend questions police 'dog ball' theory

 

[Firstsnow4]

Maybe evidence of somebody trying to get out.

Yes perhaps scrape marks on the edges of the bank further downstream. IMO.

 

[jackal67]

If I'm following this correctly, if NB fell in the river she could now possibly be in the estuary or even out to sea?

I think I'd sooner carry the dog for 3 minutes or walk it off the lead to car rather then get in a freezing deep river. Did the dog not have a collar it seems to in pics I have seen on other days

I have no idea if the dog was wearing a collar or not it was just a thought of what reason she would have if she did go into the river to retrieve the harness.

 

[EyeSpyU]

PF said it would be impossible for her to reach the sea in that river. Take that as you will.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623016479984693253

Just watched that and I never heard him say NB couldn’t be in the sea, at all.

Others, highly professional water rescue organisations have said that many people who drown in rivers just miles from the sea will invariably end up there - just as the firefighter did a few years ago after drowning in the river in Lewes. It’s a very common occurrence, apparently.

It’s possible she never even fell in the river for anyone knows, but until she’s Found no one will really know what happened.

What this has established, however, is that PF repeats how he’s been doing this work for 20 years with brilliant results, and how he’d find NIcola within one day - but he hasn’t.

 

[GTB72]

I think that's incorrect and mentioned it earlier - that doesn't take account of the flow inland when the tide is rising.

Fair enough. I did the calculation myself too

Miles to sea=13=68640 feet
Divide by tide flow= 13 feet per minute
= 5280 minutes
Divide by 60=88 hours

But as you have said I have no idea whether that takes account of the flow inland when the tide is rising so it could well be incorrect.

 

[jackal67]

Yes she did with a tag IMO

but do we know if she was definitely wearing it that day though?

 

[mrjitty]

If the police know exactly where the phone was recovered from at 9.33, then they know, from "telephony" where the phone was at 9.20 when it stopped moving.

i.e it was in the same place between 9.20-9.33

I don't see any logical issue with the press conference statement.

 

[karakuchi]

Just watched that and I never heard him say NB couldn’t be in the sea, at all.

Others, highly professional water rescue organisations have said that many people who drown in rivers just miles from the sea will invariably end up there - just as the firefighter did a few years ago after drowning in the river in Lewes. It’s a very common occurrence, apparently.

It’s possible she never even fell in the river for anyone knows, but until she’s Found no one will really know what happened.

What this has established, however, is that PF repeats how he’s been doing this work for 20 years with brilliant results, and how he’d find NIcola within one day - but he hasn’t.

He plainly states it at 2:08

 

[GTB72]

If I'm following this correctly, if NB fell in the river she could now possibly be in the estuary or even out to sea?

I don't know is the honest answer. It took a good few weeks for Libby Squire to get to the mouth of the Humber.

 

[penguinface]

From the latest conference she says:

“We know from telephony work that her phone was located on the bench at 09:20.”

From telephony work they can tell if a phone is on a bench? It doesn’t say it was found/seen on the bench.

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Of course they can’t.

My devices place me in the flat next door and my Uber app places me in a completely different block of flats.

Gyro devices can only tell when devices have been moving or dropped - they can’t define the location of a device.

The gyro & accelerometer in a phone can also gauge relative height, from the force and velocity picked up by the accelerometer. They’ll know from the logs of that data when the phone moved downwards as N sat on the bench with it in her hand, and then when it moved downwards again when she placed it on the bench. I think their confidence in stating “on the bench” comes from a combination of that plus also being able to tell from the gyro & accelerometer data that the phone didn’t move between 9:20 and the moment it was picked up from the bench at 9:33, by the woman who found it.

 

[User1111]

Do we have any facts about the dog harness? I'm getting foggy of what is fact and what is theory now!

Was there a lead attached to the harness?
If so, was the lead attached to something and the dog had managed to pull put of it?

My dog can Houdini backwards out of his harness like it's a t-shirt sometimes, often leaving us baffled and if a dog was tied up and distressed it could absolutely become free of the harness.

 

[CustardTart]

Questions I would have liked to ask to ask at the press conference:

1. You say you're looking for dash cam footage to "narrow the window" for NB potentially exiting via Garstang lane - are you also interested in dash cam footage to prove NB *entered* via Garstang Lane and at which precise time?

2. Do you have any video evidence of NB entering Garstang Lane at approximately ~8.40?

3. Do you have any evidence, aside from the witness statements, of NB entering the area of the fields?

4. For the witnesses who said they saw NB in the fields (at about 8.50 and 9.10 respectively), how did *they* exit the fields, and at what time? And do you have video evidence of this?

Superb questions. Let’s hope a reporter is reading this and will pose them.

 

[msmarple99]

but do we know if she was definitely wearing it that day though?

No, seen in previous pics. Presumably PA could answer that Q IMO

 

[JeremyBentham]

Fair enough. I did the calculation myself too

Miles to sea=13=68640 feet
Divide by tide flow= 13 feet per minute
= 5280 minutes
Divide by 60=88 hours

But as you have said I have no idea whether that takes account of the flow inland when the tide is rising so it could well be incorrect.

I think one thing we can say is that if she went into the river at the suggested point she wouldn’t have reached the sea within anywhere close to 88 hours. So their extensive searches within the first few days should have found her. But rivers can be incredibly difficult.

 

[msmarple99]

Do we have any facts about the dog harness? I'm getting foggy of what is fact and what is theory now!

Was there a lead attached to the harness?
If so, was the lead attached to something and the dog had managed to pull put of it?

My dog can Houdini backwards out of his harness like it's a t-shirt sometimes, often leaving us baffled and if a dog was tied up and distressed it could absolutely become free of the harness.

Agree Willow could,"reverse," out of harness from fixed point IMO