Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[Deleted member 320164]

The gyro & accelerometer in a phone can also gauge relative height, from the force and velocity picked up by the accelerometer. They’ll know from the logs of that data when the phone moved downwards as N sat on the bench with it in her hand, and then when it moved downwards again when she placed it on the bench. I think their confidence in stating “on the bench” comes from a combination of that plus also being able to tell from the gyro & accelerometer data that the phone didn’t move between 9:20 and the moment it was picked up from the bench at 9:33 by the woman who found it.

A gyro and accelerometer measures orientation, rotation and acceleration relative to gravity. They do not provide altitude. Thus it can tell when a phone moves and when it stops. It can’t tell you if a phone is on bench but it could tell you which way the phone was oriented. That’s if the model has these capabilities which we don’t know. And as I keep repeating mobile phone location data is not that accurate on location.

If I went missing my last known location would be my neighbour’s flat to which I have never been as they live abroad.

The police don’t ‘have confidence’ in stating on the bench - as they say on, at and in the area of the bench interchangeably.

We don’t even know who picked up the phone, one report says it was a woman the other says it was a male walker who found it on the ground.

 

[GTB72]

Libby Squire's body was not found for many weeks but that does not mean it took weeks to reach the Humber. She went in the water just a couple of miles from the Humber...and it's fast flowing. It's likely she was in the Humber a long time before she was found. Many who end up in there (e.g. those falling from the Humber Bridge) remain lost forever. A passing ship and an observant crew member were just in the right place at the right time to spot Libby.

Fair enough. I stand corrected.

 

[Mr X]

If you find yourself in a cold body of water unexpectedly all you have is your hands to get out. Unless there are some pretty well rooted plants around you are basically grabbing at either mud or small reeds. It's not a very good situation and there would not be all that much evidence of someone having been trying to get out. Fingers are actually very thin body parts.

IMO the MP accidentally fell in while retrieving something and quickly judged that they could not get out. Perhaps due to familiarity with the area and knowledge of somewhere with a "beach" they decided to attempt to get there and walk out, unaware of the cold water shock situation. Problems can rapidly develop in cold water and take over basic control of body functions. Panic reaction is natural although some people can avoid this.

Apparently the anglers say this is a "deep hole" area. IMO they know what they are doing as they are going for the fish and take catching fish very seriously. You can't underestimate the determination of a keen angler.
If there is a beach area maybe on a bend just upstream of where the bench is then it seems to be likely that the drowning occurred between the bench and the beach. IMO the MP was attempting, due to local knowledge of the area, to reach an area where it would be theoretically much easier to get back out of the River. If the deep bit occurred between the point of accidentally entering the river and the beach then the outcome seems pretty inevitable given the cold temperature of the water at this time of year. Not sure on exact temperature but it is going to be very cold.

MOO but spending a lot of time searching in the immediate area is needed.

 

[ThoughtFox]

I just have to chime in on this case because it is driving me bonkers. I lived overlooking the Tennessee River for 8 years. That is a very large, wide river with strong currents, logs, debris, giant catfish - you name it. I knew someone who disappeared near the river in winter, February in fact, and his body surfaced about two weeks later - not downstream or far away, but near the dock where he obviously fell in.

But in this case the divers haven't found a body or any clothing near the riverside or anywhere else.

If it were raining now and a flood happening, I can see a body washing over the weir and maybe out to sea. But it's not raining or flooding. Someone earlier mentioned fly fishing in that river near the bench and the water was chest deep - but that was in summer and the river was higher.

It just seems absurd to say she drowned with no footprints or skid marks showing she fell in. The dog wasn't wet. The phone was there with her meeting still going on. There is a 10 minute window. I'm just as baffled as everyone else.

 

[mrjitty]

We don’t even know who picked up the phone, one report says it was a woman the other says it was a male walker who found it on the ground.

RSBM

But don't you think the police have interviewed the two witnesses extensively and received an answer about where exactly the phone was found?

It seems unlikely to me the witnesses could have been confused about this point.

 

[GTB72]

If you find yourself in a cold body of water unexpectedly all you have is your hands to get out. Unless there are some pretty well rooted plants around you are basically grabbing at either mud or small reeds. It's not a very good situation and there would not be all that much evidence of someone having been trying to get out. Fingers are actually very thin body parts.

IMO the MP accidentally fell in while retrieving something and quickly judged that they could not get out. Perhaps due to familiarity with the area and knowledge of somewhere with a "beach" they decided to attempt to get there and walk out, unaware of the cold water shock situation. Problems can rapidly develop in cold water and take over basic control of body functions. Panic reaction is natural although some people can avoid this.

Apparently the anglers say this is a "deep hole" area. IMO they know what they are doing as they are going for the fish and take catching fish very seriously. You can't underestimate the determination of a keen angler.
If there is a beach area maybe on a bend just upstream of where the bench is then it seems to be likely that the drowning occurred between the bench and the beach. IMO the MP was attempting, due to local knowledge of the area, to reach an area where it would be theoretically much easier to get back out of the River. If the deep bit occurred between the point of accidentally entering the river and the beach then the outcome seems pretty inevitable given the cold temperature of the water at this time of year. Not sure on exact temperature but it is going to be very cold.

MOO but spending a lot of time searching in the immediate area is needed.

Good read that. Very interesting theory.

 

[rosieposie121]

My theory is that Nicola is in the water.. The key is her long coat.. She sets her phone down on the bench whilst its on call, to put the harness back on her dog. As she bends down to put the harness back on the dog, her feet / knees get trapped on/inside the ankle length coat, causing her to loose footing, take a tumble down the steep bank.. and thus leaving the harness midway between the bench and water.

 

[DazN]

JMO I am fairly sure that phones (certainly iOS) do not store their gyroscope position unless being directly queried and stored by an app in use. Continuously writing the values of the accelerometer would mean storing a huge amount of data due to how often a phone moves.

Retrieving this data certainly wasn’t an option with earlier versions of iOS but this may well have changed.

 

[Vaccine]

I assumed she could easily book into the Teams call without being on video. Thats what I would do if I was on a walk. Especially if its a regular catch up - it was only a 30 minute meeting - team members just checking in for a chat or updates if they have anything to report, or maybe just a few corporate messages So it wouldn't be particularly noticeable if you put the phone down to do something. Going to retrieve a stick or ball, talking to a stranger...

I assumed from the outset that it was an accidental fall in the river. I started to doubt that given the professional searchers views and the depth of the river downstream before the bridge that is now harder to believe. But there's such a small window for the other options - murder, abduction or voluntary disappearance. It doesn't look like it would be very easy to remove her from a popular walking spot without being seen.

Its perplexing.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

If you find yourself in a cold body of water unexpectedly all you have is your hands to get out. Unless there are some pretty well rooted plants around you are basically grabbing at either mud or small reeds. It's not a very good situation and there would not be all that much evidence of someone having been trying to get out. Fingers are actually very thin body parts.

IMO the MP accidentally fell in while retrieving something and quickly judged that they could not get out. Perhaps due to familiarity with the area and knowledge of somewhere with a "beach" they decided to attempt to get there and walk out, unaware of the cold water shock situation. Problems can rapidly develop in cold water and take over basic control of body functions. Panic reaction is natural although some people can avoid this.

Apparently the anglers say this is a "deep hole" area. IMO they know what they are doing as they are going for the fish and take catching fish very seriously. You can't underestimate the determination of a keen angler.
If there is a beach area maybe on a bend just upstream of where the bench is then it seems to be likely that the drowning occurred between the bench and the beach. IMO the MP was attempting, due to local knowledge of the area, to reach an area where it would be theoretically much easier to get back out of the River. If the deep bit occurred between the point of accidentally entering the river and the beach then the outcome seems pretty inevitable given the cold temperature of the water at this time of year. Not sure on exact temperature but it is going to be very cold.

MOO but spending a lot of time searching in the immediate area is needed.

The image below there’s the “beach” circled and there’s like a structure/turnaround road type of thing and a road leading off. That’s near where Nicola last seen isn’t it? Would that be a potential route out across the river if shallow enough?

 

[Charlotte65]

It is surprising to me that a dog that had just seen its mistress vanish into a river would have stayed completely dry.

 

[Wishbone]

My theory is that Nicola is in the water.. The key is her long coat.. She sets her phone down on the bench whilst its on call, to put the harness back on her dog. As she bends down to put the harness back on the dog, her feet / knees get trapped on/inside the ankle length coat, causing her to loose footing, take a tumble down the steep bank.. and thus leaving the harness midway between the bench and water.

coat appears more knee length but maybe could get tangled up in it or the weight of it

MSN

 

[PS8800]

It seems an unpopular opinion but I trust what PF says.
He’s an expert in his field, he knows how rivers work, he knows how bodies in rivers act. There are a lot of comparisons going on to other cases, but this river and the suspected point of entry are very different.

The search started within hours.

There is a reason him and his team are highly regarded and are used by police forces in the south of the country.

You trust which theory? Not sure which one hes supporting as of this minute.

 

[CriLondon]

My theory is that Nicola is in the water.. The key is her long coat.. She sets her phone down on the bench whilst its on call, to put the harness back on her dog. As she bends down to put the harness back on the dog, her feet / knees get trapped on/inside the ankle length coat, causing her to loose footing, take a tumble down the steep bank.. and thus leaving the harness midway between the bench and water.

Coat was not physically ankle-length as per CCTV images of Nicola on the day , knee-length at best.

 

[msmarple99]

My theory is that Nicola is in the water.. The key is her long coat.. She sets her phone down on the bench whilst its on call, to put the harness back on her dog. As she bends down to put the harness back on the dog, her feet / knees get trapped on/inside the ankle length coat, causing her to loose footing, take a tumble down the steep bank.. and thus leaving the harness midway between the bench and water.

Knee length!

 

[mrjitty]

JMO I am fairly sure that phones (certainly iOS) do not store their gyroscope position unless being directly queried and stored by an app in use. Continuously writing the values of the accelerometer would mean storing a huge amount of data due to how often a phone moves.

Retrieving this data certainly wasn’t an option with earlier versions of iOS but this may well have changed.

This is a really good point.

A cursory browse of google shows apps on IOS can access the accelerometer etc (e.g using it to wake up the device etc). But I am not sure that would be logged. However they might be able to indirectly get an idea of this by app functions - e.g screen wakeup?

All my 02c/wild speculation based on googling basic IOS developer info

 

[Petrocelli]

I wonder if its possible her long gilet made her buoyant and she floated away much faster than is being estimated.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

The image below there’s the “beach” circled and there’s like a structure/turnaround road type of thing and a road leading off. That’s near where Nicola last seen isn’t it? Would that be a potential route out across the river if shallow enough?

Google Earth Link


Google Earth
#googleearth

 

[GTB72]

The image below there’s the “beach” circled and there’s like a structure/turnaround road type of thing and a road leading off. That’s near where Nicola last seen isn’t it? Would that be a potential route out across the river if shallow enough?

That's a good bit upstream from the bench and a couple of bends to navigate too. Suspect hypothermia would set in b4 she would make it there. But you never know. Imo.

 

[PS8800]

My theory is that Nicola is in the water.. The key is her long coat.. She sets her phone down on the bench whilst its on call, to put the harness back on her dog. As she bends down to put the harness back on the dog, her feet / knees get trapped on/inside the ankle length coat, causing her to loose footing, take a tumble down the steep bank.. and thus leaving the harness midway between the bench and water.

Except her coat wasnt ankle length…