Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[Luke84]

I agree with the sentiment but I think we still have to appreciate based on the evidence we have the theory that she entered the river an extremely bizarre turn of events. Of course there's reasons why she could have been at the river's edge but then I could equally argue the opposite, why would you go to the water on a cold day like that, there's not much to see, you have a good vantage point of the river from the bench to see if the dog was in or down by the river, the first instinct would be in the open field. What's puzzling for me is when you put it all together, going to the water's edge, falling in, falling in whereby you leave no trace on the bank, falling in but not being able to get out when it was only waist deep at the bank, no sign of the body when the witness reached the bench, very slow flow to the river (the other story was when it was flooding I believe), divers on the scene very quickly, the weir, the shallow rocky part over the weir, dog didn't enter water, no sign of anything on the sonar.

Now all of these things are possible and it's the probably most likely explanation but that sequence of events is very hard to comprehend to the point where we have to give serious consideration to 3rd party involvement.

But perhaps the police have something more to believe differently

This statement resembles my thinking, too. It’s just such a sequence of unfortunate events which - even if not impossible - seem improbable: incredibly short timeline, physically fit individual/swimmer, broad daylight, no witnesses, quick emergency response, no screams for help reported, no traces on riverbank, extensive search, phone left behind …

I cannot get my head around the phone/work call. Was it a call she was actively participating in or expected to contribute to at any point? If so, it is unlikely she would have moved far away from her phone whilst on the call, even if taking a quick look at the river.

 

[Sarahaddison14]

River bank failure - Wikipedia

If you go to the area on Google Earth and look at historic images you can see the various areas that the fiver banks have given way.



Secondly if you go here and read about how river banks fail you can see my curiosity and why I believe she may be under a river bank collapse. Scroll down to "Gravitational failure"



Some very useful information, on these links. Thought I would share to the page.

 

[kittythehare]

Good on the police! All these people are hindering their investigation, as if they don't have enough to do as it is.

They are taking police time.
I'm not at all surprised that SO Riley intends to take action against social media vitriol. It's high time.
People are being hurt by the sea of malice.

 

[Sera]

I'd be interested to find that, and the log's equivalence to a human body. Have you got a link? or a few more keywords that he said that might help me google it, so I don't have to wade through all of his media appearances ?

Nicola Bulley dive expert reveals video ‘proof’ she didn’t fall into the river

A DIVING expert who led a search for Nicola Bulley claims he has video “proof” she did not fall in the river. Nicola, 45, was last seen in St Michael’s on Wyre, Lancashire, a…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[Moirasrosegarden]

This statement resembles my thinking, too. It’s just such a sequence of unfortunate events which - even if not impossible - seem improbable: incredibly short timeline, physically fit individual/swimmer, broad daylight, no witnesses, quick emergency response, no screams for help reported, no traces on riverbank, extensive search, phone left behind …

I cannot get my head around the phone/work call. Was it a call she was actively participating in or expected to contribute to at any point? If so, it is unlikely she would have moved far away from her phone whilst on the call, even if taking a quick look at the river.

This question has been asked numerous times and put to bed. The call was for multiple staff, Nicola was not expected to contribute and it was completely normal for her and others to join on mute and camera off.

 

[lvbut]

River bank failure - Wikipedia

If you go to the area on Google Earth and look at historic images you can see the various areas that the fiver banks have given way.



Secondly if you go here and read about how river banks fail you can see my curiosity and why I believe she may be under a river bank collapse. Scroll down to "Gravitational failure"



Some very useful information, on these links. Thought I would share to the page.

I think you can see a cut away section like that on the river bed in front of the bench. Visible in the drone overhead footage. MOO, of course.

 

[kittythehare]

This statement resembles my thinking, too. It’s just such a sequence of unfortunate events which - even if not impossible - seem improbable: incredibly short timeline, physically fit individual/swimmer, broad daylight, no witnesses, quick emergency response, no screams for help reported, no traces on riverbank, extensive search, phone left behind …

I cannot get my head around the phone/work call. Was it a call she was actively participating in or expected to contribute to at any point? If so, it is unlikely she would have moved far away from her phone whilst on the call, even if taking a quick look at the river.

It was a business style group call where most participants are required to listen and not participate.

 

[Fishwick]

Yes I posted a couple days ago, the police should have carried out a reconstruction, with a weighted mannequin, made allowances for anomalies, then carry out calculations, this is so easy to do. They have computer models that do this sort of stuff.

Wouldn’t tell you anything. Don’t have a certain entry point. The river is never the same at two different times and a mannequin doesn’t behave like a human struggling.

 

[Awaywego]

I think its like a cycle. In garners some interest because she is a typical "acceptable" victim for the media, there's something quite mysterious about it her going missing, police are broadly sticking to one line of enquiry, so it gets more media attention then people start behaving really badly on and off line which makes it more of a media story and so on. I am worried about where it ends, both in terms of Nicola obviously but also people taking matters into their own hands, and causing real harm to themselves or someone else. It all just feels quite sketchy. I hope the family/friends are being looked after. I can't imagine the psychological toll it's taking on the people that love her and are just doing their best in a terrible situation.

I obviously don't know what happened, but I feel quite conviced that the police know a significant piece of information about Nicola or her circumstances that are leading them to have quite a strong direction of travel and that if the public knew would make things more explicable but that they can't share.

 

[abcd123]

Nicola is last seen in upper field at 9:10 by witness A. If this is her last official sighting then there can't be any other people in the immediate area as they would also have seen Nicola since the fields are open.

Dog/Phone are found at 9:33 by witness B who is reported to be the owner of the caravan site.

<modsnip: casting doubt on witness account>

<modsnip: not an approved source>

 

[Sara11272]

I think you can see a cut away section like that on the river bed in front of the bench. Visible in the drone overhead footage. MOO, of course.

Interesting.

I wonder if a recent ‘fall’ would be obvious to see - like when crumbly cliffs have given way, you can see ‘clean’ / dry earth where the recent landslip has taken place. So the police/searchers would have an idea it had happened?

 

[Officer Dibble]

I’m not sure that she is, or isn’t, officially.

But knowing a little bit about MPs and LE’s approach to MP reports, this case does raise some questions for me:

1. Why was there such a fast and comprehensive police response? Was it just due to the proximity of the river combined with other red flags like dog/phone abandoned? Or was there other background info?

2. What made it so newsworthy almost straight off? I imagine some of it was the circumstances above - most people who willingly go missing wouldn’t leave their phone or dog: there was an air of mystery.

Some of it might have been led by the police response - “they’re treating it as a big deal, therefore it is”.

I also think it was self-perpetuating to a certain extent - media publishes one story, it gets loads of clicks, prompts them to give it more coverage, and on it grows, taking on a bit of a life of its own.

But would the media also have a ‘nose’ for things that sound particularly intriguing or where there may be more at play? Or do they simply respond to the way the police are playing it?

So much of the response and coverage here feels disproportionate - for want of a better word. I don’t want that to sound heartless. Clearly a wife/mother/daughter/sister is missing and if she was mine, no response by the media or police would be over the top. But it’s definitely not typical.

ETA: JMO

Perhaps it was a quiet news day? We have to remember if something else huge is going down in MSM then that takes prescidence in the headlines . JMO MOO

 

[tulip182]

Again I find myself disappointed by social media and the complete failure to moderate it effectively. The police have enough to do without having to deal with ghouls turning up at the site and the fools on FB and Twitter spouting their bile everywhere.
The police and people looking for Nicola are doing their absolute best to find her based on the information they have.

Well done to the mods (and posters) here for all the work you’ve done to keep this place civil.

I just hope there is a resolution to this matter soon. I cannot imagine what it must be like to have a family member go missing and not know what happened.

 

[cottonweaver]

Hello again everyone. Now I'll admit I am on Social Media A LOT but I think the social media interest in this case is now hindering it. I hasten to add I am NOT talking about this forum where conversation is sensible, factual and formulated well. I am talking about Medium's on TikTok, various Facebook groups etc. Some of the Facebook groups are sensible but for every sensible one there will be ten groups behind that are utterly dreadful. I am getting to the stage where I'm almost wondering whether an utter news blackout on this case would be a good move to stop all this utter madness. I do appreciate that many folk won't agree with me on this but in my mind this coverage is going down a deep dark hole.

It was upsetting to see some of the harassment of the residents at the mis-named ' abandoned house'
I also wish that msm would have resisted calling it that too

 

[Maclane]

I agree with the sentiment but I think we still have to appreciate based on the evidence we have the theory that she entered the river an extremely bizarre turn of events. Of course there's reasons why she could have been at the river's edge but then I could equally argue the opposite, why would you go to the water on a cold day like that, there's not much to see, you have a good vantage point of the river from the bench to see if the dog was in or down by the river, the first instinct would be in the open field. What's puzzling for me is when you put it all together, going to the water's edge, falling in, falling in whereby you leave no trace on the bank, falling in but not being able to get out when it was only waist deep at the bank, no sign of the body when the witness reached the bench, very slow flow to the river (the other story was when it was flooding I believe), divers on the scene very quickly, the weir, the shallow rocky part over the weir, dog didn't enter water, no sign of anything on the sonar.

Now all of these things are possible and it's the probably most likely explanation but that sequence of events is very hard to comprehend to the point where we have to give serious consideration to 3rd party involvement.

But perhaps the police have something more to believe differently

Freak accidents happen every day. She sits on the bench, gets bird muck on her hand, puts down her phone and goes to the river to clean it off, topples in, quickly into trouble. Or a hundred other ways. Real mystery is where is her body and could it have floated further ahead of the searches? ..or something else happened.

 

[Beckxsy]

Don't think I've seen this before. Drone footage of river Wyre after Nicola disappeared.

Nicola Bulley: Desperate search continues for mother in Lancashire

Very good footage it certainly puts things into prospective. Those banks look high and likely in the event of falling in it wouldn't be a easy task to get out at all in normal conditions. Add into that the freezing water I doubt you'd have the strength to get out.

 

[Luke84]

Freak accidents happen every day. She sits on the bench, gets bird muck on her hand, puts down her phone and goes to the river to clean it off, topples in, quickly into trouble. Or a hundred other ways. Real mystery is where is her body and could it have floated further ahead of the searches? ..or something else happened.

You linked two unfortunate events (bird muck, falls in water) ... that's not implausible ... but then there is a whole series of unfortunate events that follow this, so when you chain-link the probabilities it becomes very unlikely.

 

[LastSeenWearing]

Nicola is last seen in upper field at 9:10 by witness A. If this is her last official sighting then there can't be any other people in the immediate area as they would also have seen Nicola since the fields are open.

Dog/Phone are found at 9:33 by witness B who is reported to be the owner of the caravan site.

<modsnip: casting doubt on witness account>

<modsnip: not an approved source>

Is witness A the 70 year old man with the white dog? From what I remember his wife stated I think to the Mirror that there were 3 people in the field including her husband. I don't recall it being stated that his wife was there too so who was the third person - the 70 year old man, NB and ? Or have I just got this completely mixed up? These witnesses are utterly confusing.

 

[Haveyoufedthecat]

Very good footage it certainly puts things into prospective. Those banks look high and likely in the event of falling in it wouldn't be a easy task to get out at all in normal conditions. Add into that the freezing water I doubt you'd have the strength to get out.

I was a child in the 1977 heatwave that went on and on. I remember a news headline (never ever left my mind) of a man jumping into a river or pond to cool down. Due to the shock of the water he had a heart attack and sadly died. There is also every possibility that this was a "medical" episode. Having seen two brain haemorrhages happen in real life to loved family members I can absolutely guarantee these things happen in seconds and I mean seconds. Sadly Nicola could have easily toppled into the River as a result of a medical episode and would have been in no fit state to do anything. Having said all this I do hope, especially for the children that any remains are found for closure.

 

[Cranky]

In the absence of anything else useful to do I thought I'd do a little research on the river Wyre as it meets the sea. I live near the Mersey and honestly, on a calm day it looks like you could just swim across. It's deep though, scary deep. There are a number of shipwrecks down there and still enough room for big cargo ships to navigate.

The Wyre seems to be a lot different. I found this account of someone who tried to sail as far up as they could https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/~cmi/boat/duddon17/wyre.html I've also been envisaging the end near the sea to be a continuation of the part that we've seen near the bench but there is actually quite a lot of different areas down the other end. It also provides some interesting depth comparisons and details of the channels.