Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[citygirl]

author was part of the Specialist Search Unit
I only came across that article because Sussex was one of the forces who lost their funding in 2015 and a private contractor took over .....

Still very interesting.
I keep thinking she was just a little bit of a thing.
Wearing winter clothes but still tiny.
When I see them searching in Morcambe Bay my heart sinks.
Like looking for a needle in a haystack, IMO.

 

[Seattle1]

I think it’s been based on the level of resources that we’re deployed early on in the investigation. More info here about how misper investigations and risk assessments are carried out. Missing persons | College of Policing

Edited to add

High risk:

The risk of serious harm to the subject or the public is assessed as very likely.

This category almost always requires the immediate deployment of police resources – action may be delayed in exceptional circumstances, such as searching water or forested areas during hours of darkness. A member of the senior management team must be involved in the examination of initial lines of enquiry and approval of appropriate staffing levels. Such cases should lead to the appointment of an investigating officer (IO) and possibly an SIO, and a police search adviser (PolSA). There should be a press/media strategy and/or close contact with outside agencies. Family support should be put in place where appropriate. The MPB should be notified of the case without undue delay. Children’s services must also be notified immediately if the person is under 18.

Thanks for the link which for me begs the question -- is the "College of Policing," an independent professional body for police business that promotes agencies adopt their authored practices developed and owned by the College of Policing --even applicable here? I know for a fact COP is not recognized in Scotland.

Is there evidence this missing person risk assessment by COP APP was ever adopted by Lancashire police? IMO, unless it comes directly from the Lancashire police, it's just conjecture and adds to the ongoing confusion surrounding this case.

 

[Normanly]

My opinion is that NB falling in the river is not the cause of this tragic incident. I agree with PFs opinion that NB is not in the river he's an expert. The river bends so much in places and so many obstructions and miles away from the ocean. It's been very sunny and visible. No sign of keys, wallet , clothimg, jewelry, or screaming. The first thing I find extremely odd is the dog collar. Why is the dog collar off. If it was just the leash I understand. Why would any dog walker or owner remove a collar while out on a country side walk (assuming NB did). Secondly why would phone be left on the bench ? Even if a dog toy fell in river why put phone on bench when logged in a business call - first rule in financial services is not to leave work accessible equipment lying around. Secondly no one is going for a swim in this cold. If it was a dog toy it would be a toy that could float because otherwise why go after it? If it can float where is the toy? To put phone on bench to get something in river implies you likely chance going into the river especially when she has pockets. If it was going to be a hard task why not log off the call? (NB family would recognise a toy. I agree with PF a full land search of area is necessary.

Willow had a collar and tag in numerous photos on NB Facebook page. This is a legal requirement in England. I would therefore assume this was still on her on this day. She wore an additional harness and lead which were what were removed.

Many dogs walk better on a lead with a harness rather than on their collar. The family confirmed it was normal to remove the harness when she was off lead. Maybe Willow didn't like to wear the harness so they liked to give her more freedom off lead. MOO

 

[Lincoln34]

I've gone round in circles on this (as we all have!), but overall, IMO she did not enter the water in an accident as per LE's main working hypothesis. I do think something has occurred which is out of the ordinary, possibly 'foul play' by some party, but I do not think she was abducted. I'll try to explain my thinking, apologies in advance for the long post!

Why I think she's not in the water:

- I'm taken by the speed and scale of the initial response (helicopters in the air -presumably with thermal imaging IMO, searches on the banks etc.), and I find it surprising she was not seen/found that afternoon, given it was a low incoming tide

- I'm taken by the fact that she (nor any clothes or belongings) still hasn't been found 13 days of intense searching later. I understand that rivers are complex and finding people in water is hard, but given the intensity of the search in a "known" location, this feels surprising.
- As much as Paul Faulding is a self-serving [expletive] - snipped by me! - (IMO), I do believe he knows his stuff about water searches, so I'm taken by the fact a) he and his team also haven't found anything, and b) his opinion that it would be nearly impossible for NB to end up in the sea. This is supported, perhaps, by the fact of the unfortunate 2yr old drowning victim found on mudflats. If a 2yr old enters the water while it's in flood, and enters right down near the Shard Bridge, but still doesn't end up in the sea, it seems far less likely that an adult does, falling in above the weir, at low tide. IMO.

I'm not saying she's definitely not in the water - of course not. But taken all together, on the balance of probabilities IMO she is not.

Why I don't think she was abducted from the fields/riverside:

- Mainly, I trust LE on this, in that I think they just cannot countenance it with the evidence and information they have. Particularly: the relative lack of suitable exit points (vehicular or otherwise), relative lack of opportunity (I do accept that it only takes a few seconds, but not if the only exit point is down a single track path with a 5 minute walk), and the total lack (apparently) of evidence - at the scene, in follow-up enquiries etc.
By the way, I also extend this to thinking she wasn't attacked in the fields, and I also rule out all the (IMO) far-fetched scenarios around stranger attacks / abductions, including but not limited to: pulled into Rowanwater, kidnapped by boat, etc.

Why I think something 'fishy' might have happened:

- I'm totally unconvinced by the witness statements (or at least what's been released of them by LE). They are inconsistent and unreliable, and have been since the outset. I'm sure this is exacerbated by LE/media sloppiness, but that's not my problem - from what I can read, the witness reports are almost completely unreliable. If there's evidence (such as CCTV) that would support witness statements, I cannot for the life of me understand why LE wouldn't release it. I therefore assume there is none. This by the way is not necessarily to imply any wrongdoing on the part of the witnesses, but to bring in to question the timelines and/or NB's presence in the fields - at the least.

- I think PA's decision to call the police immediately, combined with their decision to react immediately, suggests there is information not yet released (perhaps never will be) which has caused this fast reaction. I won't speculate on what that piece of information may be.

- I'm generally concerned about the lack of video evidence of NB at any time after leaving her home. Again, if it exists I cannot think why it wouldn't have been released, so I am assuming it does not exist. This in itself is not 'fishy' (it's a rural area), but it serves to increase the likelihood that if something fishy has happened, it could have gone unnoticed

- Whilst I don't subscribe to 'woo woo'-type thinking or conspiracies, I do feel that the 'wisdom of the crowd' and the 'gut-sense' that something's off is not to be sniffed at. As humans, we got to where we are by being good at interpreting social cues, pattern recognition, and sensing danger etc. Sometimes this means we get anxious/fearful when we shouldn't, but sometimes it means we're good at 'sensing' when something isn't right. A lot of people 'sense' something isn't right, and I do put some weight on that.

So what does that leave?

Here are my remaining theories, in order of likelihood (IMO) - and I am being careful not to be victim-unfriendly or overly speculative on anyone not a POI.

1. Voluntary exit by NB. Won't speculate specifically why, or where she went, or where she is - the options are numerous. Whatever the specifics, she would have voluntarily left the riverside, and she wasn't seen leaving. Implies she deliberately left her belongings, I won't speculate why.

2. Disagreement with someone she knew, or knew of, that resulted in her leaving the riverside and eventually coming to harm. There are lots of scenarios potential scenarios here, and I won't speculate. In all of them, she's not seen leaving, and her belongings and dog were likely returned to the scene. Exactly when they were returned to the scene would depend on who the third party was - it's either before 9.33, or any point before 10.50.

3. NB was never in the riverside area. Implies, for whatever reason, that she simply did not arrive there after dropping the girls at school, and that witness statements are either deliberately fabricated or mistaken - either is possible, and it kind of depends again on the reason. This scenario implies her belongings were placed at the scene. I give this whole scenario less likelihood because I assume telephony data gives LE more confidence she was there. Unless LE can prove she was there (dash-cam/CCTV), we have to go on witness statement combined with phone data - which together are pretty solid (hence why I think this is the least likely option), but don't completely guarantee NB was there, in person.

Superb and nuanced post . Thanks. This case has caused a lot of speculation. It's seen by some as another version of the classic locked room scenario in detective fiction - EXCEPT it's not fiction. A real woman and Mum of 2 has gone missing without a credible explanation. Yet. Thank you for your thoughts and let's all keep within TOS x

 

[pineapple23]

My opinion is that NB falling in the river is not the cause of this tragic incident. I agree with PFs opinion that NB is not in the river he's an expert. The river bends so much in places and so many obstructions and miles away from the ocean. It's been very sunny and visible. No sign of keys, wallet , clothimg, jewelry, or screaming. The first thing I find extremely odd is the dog collar. Why is the dog collar off. If it was just the leash I understand. Why would any dog walker or owner remove a collar while out on a country side walk (assuming NB did). Secondly why would phone be left on the bench ? Even if a dog toy fell in river why put phone on bench when logged in a business call - first rule in financial services is not to leave work accessible equipment lying around. Secondly no one is going for a swim in this cold. If it was a dog toy it would be a toy that could float because otherwise why go after it? If it can float where is the toy? To put phone on bench to get something in river implies you likely chance going into the river especially when she has pockets. If it was going to be a hard task why not log off the call? (NB family would recognise a toy. I agree with PF a full land search of area is necessary.

It was the harness that was off not a collar. Apparently she used to take it off for Willow to have a run. There was early speculation about a ball but in fact there was no confirmation that there was any toy. Maybe Willow got distracted by something or Nicola had to chase after Willow or make a grab and unbalanced.

 

[Allabouttrial]

Can anyone explain the 9.20 sighting on the Lancashire police website? I thought it was a mistake on their more recent article and report it but they still haven’t taken it down. Supposedly a sighting on the river path towards Garstang road, at the same time her phone is on the bench?

Lancashire Constabulary - MFH Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

That's an update from the 3rd. February?

 

[Fishwick]

That's an update from the 3rd. February?

I can’t find the more recent one (I think Monday 6th) but that also had a 9.20 sighting.

Edit: Here but in a different location

Lancashire Constabulary - Missing Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

lancashire.police.uk

 

[Seattle1]

Nicola Bulley: police issue dispersal notices after social media speculation

Extra powers granted to allow removal of people taking photos and video at scene of 45-year-old’s disappearance

www.theguardian.com

9 Feb 2023

Police have been granted extra powers to remove social media influencers from the scene where Nicola Bulley went missing in Lancashire.

A dispersal order was put in place on Wednesday night meaning anyone taking photos and video for social media after the 45-year-old’s disappearance 13 days ago can be sent away.


Lancashire police said they had issued two dispersal notices and warned a number of other people about their behaviour.

Bulley was last seen in St Michael’s on Wyre, not far from her home in Inskip, on the morning of 27 January.

She vanished within a 10-minute window while walking her dog, Willow, along the River Wyre, leaving her phone, which was still connected to a work call, on a bench.

[..]

Police said they hoped the dispersal order, which is in place for 48 hours, would offer some “reassurance that we will not tolerate criminality, including trespass and criminal damage”.

They added: “We are also aware of a number of grossly offensive comments being made on social media and elsewhere. We are looking into these and will not hesitate to take action where appropriate.”

 

[jackal67]

Fair enough. I'm not very technically au fait myself but I thought it was worth asking.

Can anyone explain the 9.20 sighting on the Lancashire police website? I thought it was a mistake on their more recent article and report it but they still haven’t taken it down. Supposedly a sighting on the river path towards Garstang road, at the same time her phone is on the bench?

Lancashire Constabulary - MFH Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

Good spot !

 

[Fishwick]

That's an update from the 3rd. February?

The more recent one also references a 9.20 sighting, but in a different location (which I again assumed was a mistake but no edit).

Lancashire Constabulary - Missing Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

lancashire.police.uk

 

[GTB72]

That's an update from the 3rd. February?

Friday 3rd February. I thought the last known sighting was 9.10? This is doing my head in.

 

[wackyw]

Nicola Bulley dive expert reveals video ‘proof’ she didn’t fall into the river

A DIVING expert who led a search for Nicola Bulley claims he has video “proof” she did not fall in the river. Nicola, 45, was last seen in St Michael’s on Wyre, Lancashire, a…

www.thesun.co.uk

Thanks Sera,

I'm not really sure that "dried out branchlet" really represents what a clothed human body with air in lungs/clothes, or out of lungs/clothes might do. But that's just my opinion as a non-expert.

 

[crazychris]

The police seem so convinced that she went in the river so they must have some as yet undisclosed sensitive reason for thinking that. Something about Nicola's behaviour that morning or in her recent past or something from her fitbit or phone. Something they didn't even tell the private searchers. Maybe only a few on the investigation team knows even. I bet if they told us we'd all say it made absolute sense why they think she went in. Now whether the family knows is another matter. Have they said very recently that they still think she didn't go in the water?

 

[jackal67]

Friday 3rd February. I thought the last known sighting was 9.10? This is doing my head in.

Me too !! Even official police site getting it wrong

 

[kittythehare]

Can anyone explain the 9.20 sighting on the Lancashire police website? I thought it was a mistake on their more recent article and report it but they still haven’t taken it down. Supposedly a sighting on the river path towards Garstang road, at the same time her phone is on the bench?

Lancashire Constabulary - MFH Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

That is dated February 3, not the latest.

 

[TheBlueGuardian]

It was the harness that was off not a collar. Apparently she used to take it off for Willow to have a run. There was early speculation about a ball but in fact there was no confirmation that there was any toy. Maybe Willow got distracted by something or Nicola had to chase after Willow or make a grab and unbalanced.

Apologies I mistaked collar for harness. Even though it’s was a practice there is evidence that sometimes NB kept harness on see msm link. Plus if she has phone in her hand wouldn’t it have been awkward to carry harness and lead in the other ? Doesn’t seem convenient

Why did Nicola Bulley take her dog's harness off?

The mother of two was last seen walking her springer spaniel Willow near the River Wyre in St Michael's on Wyre, Lancashire, last Friday morning.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Allabouttrial]

I can’t find the more recent one (I think Monday 6th) but that also had a 9.20 sighting.

Edit: Here but in a different location

Lancashire Constabulary - Missing Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

lancashire.police.uk

Yeah just looked at the one on the 6th:

Nicola was last seen on Friday morning (January 27th) at around 9.20am on the upper field by the river off Garstang Road where she had taken her Spaniel Willow for a walk after dropping her children at school in the village.

Link

 

[TheBlueGuardian]

It was the harness that was off not a collar. Apparently she used to take it off for Willow to have a run. There was early speculation about a ball but in fact there was no confirmation that there was any toy. Maybe Willow got distracted by something or Nicola had to chase after Willow or make a grab and unbalanced.

MOD delete duplicate -Apologies I mistaked collar for harness. Even though it’s was a practice there is evidence that sometimes NB kept harness on see msm link. Plus if she has phone in her hand wouldn’t it have been awkward to carry harness and lead in the other ? Doesn’t seem convenient

Why did Nicola Bulley take her dog's harness off?

The mother of two was last seen walking her springer spaniel Willow near the River Wyre in St Michael's on Wyre, Lancashire, last Friday morning.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Night Shift]

The police seem so convinced that she went in the river so they must have some as yet undisclosed sensitive reason for thinking that. Something about Nicola's behaviour that morning or in her recent past or something from her fitbit or phone. Something they didn't even tell the private searchers. I bet if they told us we'd all say it made absolute sense why they think she went in. Now whether the family knows is another matter. Have they said very recently that they still think she didn't go in the water?

I couldn't disagree more. There are no conspiracies here.

The police have to go with the most likely explanation, in the absence of any other evidence. And I agree with them here.

 

[Seattle1]

Missing dog walker Nicola Bulley’s final text before she disappeared revealed

The 45-year-old mother of two arranged a playdate with a friend just minutes before she disappeared

www.independent.co.uk

9 Feb 2023

[..]

Just half an hour earlier, the mother of two had texted a friend to book a playdate. She sent the message at 8.57am shortly before logging into the Teams call, locals at a village meeting were told.

[..]

Ms Bulley had just dropped her two daughters, aged six and nine, at school on Friday morning.

The last known sighting of Ms Bulley was at 9.10am. Some 25 minutes later, her phone and the dog’s harness were found on a riverside bench. Her springer spaniel, Willow, appeared distressed.

Her Strava account shows that the route where she was last seen was one she frequently used, as she often shared photos of her riverside runs with Willow.

On average, it would take her 30 minutes to complete her regular route and return to her car. She had parked in the same spot about “1000 times over” throughout the years, her family have said.