Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 2023 #18

[Marie Bell]

Sorry, you must have missed many missing person cases. Police and family are very reluctant to mention the possibility of self harm early in a missing person case for a couple of very good reasons. First, the person may still be alive and they don't want to do anything to make it more difficult for them to return. Second, public assistance typically drops off at the mention. Just because they didn't mention it doesn't mean it wasn't on their list of possibilities. There were a lot of red flags.

I suspect the police have a lot of information including the welfare details, that Willow was tied up to the bench and eventually pulled out of it or chewed through the leash (wonder why we didn't hear about the leash), that her phone tracked its usual path and her fitbit was attempting to connect through bluetooth until she walked away from the phone. All IMO.

Find me a case where the police have actually voiced a potential accident scenario in detail simply to cover up any suspected self-harm. I'll wait.

 

[Marie Bell]

Unfortunately imo the release of the vulnerabilities info has skewed the speculation towards self harm. However, if relevant at all, 'high risk' could simply mean something like possible misadventure due to impaired judgement or a lack of concentration.
Re whether it is fair to the family to continue discussion/speculation, are you suggesting that discussions on missing persons should be closed when/if that person is found deceased?

It hasn't skewed mine, as I've stuck to what has actually been said. I'm not saying what people 'should' say, if that is their fancy. It's not mine.

 

[Zuleika]

It's been revealed thatthis lady was having a distressing perimenopause and I don't want to dismiss how it affected her but I had a surgical menopause at 43 which threw me straight into distressing immediate menopause symptoms and had to manage without HRT because of contraindications but I never once thought of taking to drink to relieve them nor of ending my life even tho my marriage was breaking up too .As for her "problem " with alcohol ,was it that she was defined as an alcoholic or a binge drinker perhaps? Were both of these , medical problems enough to make her take her life?
I don't think so .
I'm more for her falling off the banking but so far as I remember there were no markings along that first stretch of the river to confirm that despite her boots did have heels However she could have tippled over the very edge and dropped but wouldn't someone have seen her in the water?JMO

 

[PeggyHenry]

It's been revealed thatthis lady was having a distressing perimenopause and I don't want to dismiss how it affected her but I had a surgical menopause at 43 which threw me straight into distressing immediate menopause symptoms and had to manage without HRT because of contraindications but I never once thought of taking to drink to relieve them nor of ending my life even tho my marriage was breaking up too .As for her "problem " with alcohol ,was it that she was defined as an alcoholic or a binge drinker perhaps? Were both of these , medical problems enough to make her take her life?
I don't think so .
I'm more for her falling off the banking but so far as I remember there were no markings along that first stretch of the river to confirm that despite her boots did have heels However she could have tippled over the very edge and dropped but wouldn't someone have seen her in the water?JMO

I agree with your thoughts on both counts .. hence there is speculation. Is it right or wrong we continue to speculate? I don t know .. but better in this environment than elsewhere. I’m naturally curious as to what caused this lovely woman’s death, more so because each scenario entails things that don’t make sense.

 

[pineapple23]

It's been revealed thatthis lady was having a distressing perimenopause and I don't want to dismiss how it affected her but I had a surgical menopause at 43 which threw me straight into distressing immediate menopause symptoms and had to manage without HRT because of contraindications but I never once thought of taking to drink to relieve them nor of ending my life even tho my marriage was breaking up too .As for her "problem " with alcohol ,was it that she was defined as an alcoholic or a binge drinker perhaps? Were both of these , medical problems enough to make her take her life?
I don't think so .
I'm more for her falling off the banking but so far as I remember there were no markings along that first stretch of the river to confirm that despite her boots did have heels However she could have tippled over the very edge and dropped but wouldn't someone have seen her in the water?JMO

We are all different, with different characters, backgrounds, stresses... Imo I don't think it's possible to draw any conclusions from how WE did or didn't deal with something.
Re being seen in the water, it could all be over very quickly with no shouting or splashing involved - ie hitting head, cold water shock...

 

[Davieson]

I agree with your thoughts on both counts .. hence there is speculation. Is it right or wrong we continue to speculate? I don t know .. but better in this environment than elsewhere. I’m naturally curious as to what caused this lovely woman’s death, more so because each scenario entails things that don’t make sense.

Personally, I think we should wait for the inquest

 

[rojo]

It’s prob already been covered, but I vaguely recall when she first went missing, it was reported her partner went and searched an abandoned building (not the one opposite the river).

I wonder if she had gone there previously?

 

[Zuleika]

We are all different, with different characters, backgrounds, stresses... Imo I don't think it's possible to draw any conclusions from how WE did or didn't deal with something.
Re being seen in the water, it could all be over very quickly with no shouting or splashing involved - ie hitting head, cold water shock...

I think perhaps you misunderstood my post . In my discounting suicide I was trying to illustrate that no bad a thing that comes up a woman gets through these difficult patches ,more so when she has young children and a happy life . JMO

 

[ginnyw]

Despite always believing that it was an accident I still occasionally get flashes of something not seeming right about this case still - lots of things which don't add up. IMO. A previous poster on here recently said that the missing piece might be connected with that 10th Jan visit to NB's house by the police and a health professional. I feel that this might be the case, but whether or not we ever hear about it is another matter. JMO. The current rumours doing the rounds on SM seem mostly to be based around this idea of the layby in the road near where NB's body was found or something to do with what did or didn't happen on the upper field on that day.

 

[rhino]

Willow’s harness and lead were halfway between the bench and the river.

I suspect the police have a lot of information including the welfare details, that Willow was tied up to the bench and eventually pulled out of it or chewed through the leash (wonder why we didn't hear about the leash), that her phone tracked its usual path and her fitbit was attempting to connect through bluetooth until she walked away from the phone. All IMO.

We did hear about the lead during the 15th Feb press conference.

 

[Zuleika]

In the programme on ch5 didn't PA say he was informed by the school about the loose dog but no sign of Nicola at around 10:10 and rang the police straight away ?

 

[WAWAW]

Despite always believing that it was an accident I still occasionally get flashes of something not seeming right about this case still - lots of things which don't add up. IMO. A previous poster on here recently said that the missing piece might be connected with that 10th Jan visit to NB's house by the police and a health professional. I feel that this might be the case, but whether or not we ever hear about it is another matter. JMO. The current rumours doing the rounds on SM seem mostly to be based around this idea of the layby in the road near where NB's body was found or something to do with what did or didn't happen on the upper field on that day.

For this to be an accident the following needed to have happened
She fell into the river-probability at a Conservative estimate 1 in a thousand
Willow didn't follow her 1 in a hundred
She didn't survive the fall 1 in 10
The people finding Willow didn't see her 1 in 10
Her body has evaded a very extensive search of the area where it was thought she'd fallen 1 in a hundred

I think I've given very conservative estimates there and it comes out about a billion to one chance of an accident at the bench being the cause.
I
For the sake of the family I so hope the police can prove it to be an accident, but statistically I can't see how it is

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

In the programme on ch5 didn't PA say he was informed by the school about the loose dog but no sign of Nicola at around 10:10 and rang the police straight away ?

I think the timing was later than that.

It was initially reported that the campsite lady P found the dog loose, wasn't sure whose it was but recognised it, tied it with string, hurriedly left to go to 'an appointment', later rang her daughter in law who knew whose dog it was so she (DiL) rang the school NB's kids attend and the school then rang PA at something like 10:45, he had already noted NB failing to return home later than usual, so he then left to drive and search and rang the police en route who asked him to turn around and be back at his house as they would rather meet him there, so he went back home and they attended his house at gone 11am.

JMO MOO literally none of this story makes any sense, it's been modified and altered since those initial reports, and I think there's a lot more to it.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

In the programme on ch5 didn't PA say he was informed by the school about the loose dog but no sign of Nicola at around 10:10 and rang the police straight away ?

No, he said he first noticed N wasn't back home by her usual time and so he'd tried to ring her a couple of times (before 10:30) IIRC it wasn't until after that the school then rang him.

 

[shinimeggie]

For this to be an accident the following needed to have happened
She fell into the river-probability at a Conservative estimate 1 in a thousand
Willow didn't follow her 1 in a hundred
She didn't survive the fall 1 in 10
The people finding Willow didn't see her 1 in 10
Her body has evaded a very extensive search of the area where it was thought she'd fallen 1 in a hundred

I think I've given very conservative estimates there and it comes out about a billion to one chance of an accident at the bench being the cause.
I
For the sake of the family I so hope the police can prove it to be an accident, but statistically I can't see how it is

Because of some stats you made up?

Statistically speaking, factually speaking, she is way more likely to have died in an accident over committing suicide, and way, way, way more likely to have died to either a misadventure or an on-purpose than to a murder.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

What I don't understand is are we supposed to believe that Willow was tied to the bench with string for at least one whole hour?

As we know the harness and lead were on the grass / floor, then she must have been tied via her collar. Most dogs would be going frantic trying to free themself and also easily chew through the string.

Also we were told the phone was on the ground and the harness / lead were too but when you've got a dog tied with string to a bench, they're going to be moving around all over the place if not thrashing around and extremely unhappy and dislodging and moving things so where things were or weren't is pretty redundant.

 

[Simplistic67]

In the programme on ch5 didn't PA say he was informed by the school about the loose dog but no sign of Nicola at around 10:10 and rang the police straight away ?

It now seems that Penny called the police at 9:30am after recognising the dog....This is according to Nicola Adam the Editor of The Lancashire Post.This whole case is bewidering.
This was reported on the very first day of the disappearance...Early reports are most likely the most reliable IMO.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Because of some stats you made up?

Statistically speaking, factually speaking, she is way more likely to have died in an accident over committing suicide, and way, way, way more likely to have died to either a misadventure or an on-purpose than to a murder.

I'm not disagreeing with you but in terms of statistics, I'd be interested to know what the stats are of lone missing single female, married with children, found dead after suddenly disappearing from usual daytime routine and leaving her possessions and un-tethered dog in a public place. Would that lean more towards an altercation / mugging / sexual assault and murder -or- suicide?

In terms of suicide, jumping in a river would not seem like a very effective method - I've said this on here before but most women would not be too mortified at the idea of being found alive but in a state of disarray very close to one's children's school and home to try such a method.

JMO MOO it depends what else is in the equation for example some people try to take their own lives by drinking toxic fluids such as household cleaners or weedkiller but those substances are so painful they often do something spontaneous and erratic.

 

[WAWAW]

Because of some stats you made up?

Statistically speaking, factually speaking, she is way more likely to have died in an accident over committing suicide, and way, way, way more likely to have died to either a misadventure or an on-purpose than to a murder.

To be fair this is what profilers do, they look at the most likely course of action and form conclusions from that.
To be fair I my figures are on the very low side, I think more than a thousand people will walk past there without falling in, I think Springer Spaniels will follow their owner into the water, I think most people falling in would get up and get out no problem, I'm sure most people seeing a dog on its own and a phone on the bench would check the river and finally I'm very confident the police would have found her that day if she fell in it at that point.
Trust me this isn't the outcome I want it to be, or thought it would be (I thought she'd gone off somewhere) but it makes no sense she died following an accident at that point
IMO

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

It now seems that Penny called the police at 9:30am after recognising the dog....This is according to Nicola Adam the Editor of The Lancashire Post.This whole case is bewidering.
This was reported on the very first day of the disappearance...Early reports are most likely the most reliable IMO.

That report certainly conflicts with everything else that was said so I think it must be an error?