Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 2023 #18

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Observe_dont_Absorb said:
I'm not disagreeing with you but in terms of statistics, I'd be interested to know what the stats are of lone missing single female, married with children, found dead after suddenly disappearing from usual daytime routine and leaving her possessions and un-tethered dog in a public place. Would that lean more towards an altercation / mugging / sexual assault and murder -or- suicide?

In terms of suicide, jumping in a river would not seem like a very effective method - I've said this on here before but most women would not be too mortified at the idea of being found alive but in a state of disarray very close to one's children's school and home to try such a method.

JMO MOO it depends what else is in the equation for example some people try to take their own lives by drinking toxic fluids such as household cleaners or weedkiller but those substances are so painful they often do something spontaneous and erratic.
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I looked up suicide stats for the UK today and in 2021 around 6000 deaths were recorded as suicide and only 5% were from drowning.
Conclusion this very improbable as well, but less so than an accident
 
WAWAW said:
To be fair this is what profilers do, they look at the most likely course of action and form conclusions from that.
To be fair I my figures are on the very low side, I think more than a thousand people will walk past there without falling in, I think Springer Spaniels will follow their owner into the water, I think most people falling in would get up and get out no problem, I'm sure most people seeing a dog on its own and a phone on the bench would check the river and finally I'm very confident the police would have found her that day if she fell in it at that point.
Trust me this isn't the outcome I want it to be, or thought it would be (I thought she'd gone off somewhere) but it makes no sense she died following an accident at that point
IMO
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I totally agree
 
Observe_dont_Absorb said:
I'm not disagreeing with you but in terms of statistics, I'd be interested to know what the stats are of lone missing single female, married with children, found dead after suddenly disappearing from usual daytime routine and leaving her possessions and un-tethered dog in a public place. Would that lean more towards an altercation / mugging / sexual assault and murder -or- suicide?

In terms of suicide, jumping in a river would not seem like a very effective method - I've said this on here before but most women would not be too mortified at the idea of being found alive but in a state of disarray very close to one's children's school and home to try such a method.

JMO MOO it depends what else is in the equation for example some people try to take their own lives by drinking toxic fluids such as household cleaners or weedkiller but those substances are so painful they often do something spontaneous and erratic.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, I'd lean towards suicide (out of the things you listed, I mean) because that's the most likely thing -- especially with the call about concern for welfare being recent to her death and what the police believe, as well as what little they were forced to reveal abut her personal life.

Sometimes, the way someone tries to commit suicide makes no logical sense but means something to them. I tried to drown myself in the sea, which made no sense to anyone but myself. It was a place I considered myself to be at peace. Nicola may well have considered herself most at peace on that routine walk, when her children were safe, and her dog was safe.

Or she may have simply had an accident.

The police have way, way more evidence than we'll ever had, and they never treated this as a murder. That implies to me they have some strong evidence we don't have about what happened to Nicola, even as time passed. Even now, they haven't arrested anyone or said they're looking for a suspect. That's not the sort of information you quietly sit on.
 
Simplistic67 said:
It now seems that Penny called the police at 9:30am after recognising the dog....This is according to Nicola Adam the Editor of The Lancashire Post.This whole case is bewidering.
This was reported on the very first day of the disappearance...Early reports are most likely the most reliable IMO.
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Early reports are usually the most unreliable.
 
WAWAW said:
I looked up suicide stats for the UK today and in 2021 around 6000 deaths were recorded as suicide and only 5% were from drowning.
Conclusion this very improbable as well, but less so than an accident
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Lots of other stats to add in.

Peak age for female suicide is 45-49.

Addiction and suicide are closely correlated.

Alcohol and open water are another fatal combination (both accident and suicide both intoxicated or depressed / hung over in the frame).

Recent welfare check adds yet another layer of risk.

I think if they rule out foul play from PM and inquest - then JMO - I hope that too long in the water means unable to determine suicide. I hope the family don’t get that verdict even big it’s vague. What purpose would it serve - they have suffered enough.
 
Observe_dont_Absorb said:
No, he said he first noticed N wasn't back home by her usual time and so he'd tried to ring her a couple of times (before 10:30) IIRC it wasn't until after that the school then rang him.
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Thanks for that. So he contacted the police immediately who had ...or had not been contacted by the caravan family ? I use that term to include any one person in it because didn't one of them say they recognised the dog so contacted the school .
Or did he say he went looking for her before he rang the police ?
The question being exactly who was to blame for the apparent time lapse being criticised in that earlier Tweeted video which I now can't find .
 
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WAWAW said:
I looked up suicide stats for the UK today and in 2021 around 6000 deaths were recorded as suicide and only 5% were from drowning.
Conclusion this very improbable as well, but less so than an accident
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So at more than one per week, each one of those 60 suicides-by-drowning in 2021, was improbable?
 
porkypies said:
So at more than one per week, each one of those 60 suicides-by-drowning in 2021, was improbable?
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I'm not sure how helpful stats are anyway. I'm the lucky one who drew the short straw and got a rare 1/100,000 health condition. Maybe Nicola was rare too or 'untypical'. Unlikely things happen - I'm evidence of that!
 
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Observe_dont_Absorb said:
I think the timing was later than that.

It was initially reported that the campsite lady P found the dog loose, wasn't sure whose it was but recognised it, tied it with string, hurriedly left to go to 'an appointment', later rang her daughter in law who knew whose dog it was so she (DiL) rang the school NB's kids attend and the school then rang PA at something like 10:45, he had already noted NB failing to return home later than usual, so he then left to drive and search and rang the police en route who asked him to turn around and be back at his house as they would rather meet him there, so he went back home and they attended his house at gone 11am.

JMO MOO literally none of this story makes any sense, it's been modified and altered since those initial reports, and I think there's a lot more to it.
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My understanding was that PA did call the police after receiving the call from the school, but he did arrive at the bench and was given the phone and Willow before he was asked by the police to return home. JMO
 
Observe_dont_Absorb said:
What I don't understand is are we supposed to believe that Willow was tied to the bench with string for at least one whole hour?

As we know the harness and lead were on the grass / floor, then she must have been tied via her collar. Most dogs would be going frantic trying to free themself and also easily chew through the string.

Also we were told the phone was on the ground and the harness / lead were too but when you've got a dog tied with string to a bench, they're going to be moving around all over the place if not thrashing around and extremely unhappy and dislodging and moving things so where things were or weren't is pretty redundant.
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I believe earlier in the threads it was established that Willow was tied up, but not with string. So either the witness used the lead (and possibly the harness) to tie Willow, or used the long lead that is supposedly permanently tied to the bench (there is a photograph of it on the thread somewhere).
 
Zuleika said:
Thanks for that. So he contacted the police immediately who had ...or had not been contacted by the caravan family ? I use that term to include any one person in it because didn't one of them say they recognised the dog so contacted the school .
Or did he say he went looking for her before he rang the police ?
The question being exactly who was to blame for the apparent time lapse being criticised in that earlier Tweeted video which I now can't find .
Click to expand...

One would need to review the videos he participated in but IIRC this is the order he stated:

He had already noticed N wasn't home by her usual time and tried to ring her by two methods (regular network and whatsapp), I think he said from about 10:15 onwards as she was usually home by 10. At some point after that he changed into his gym clothing as he'd intended to have a look out for N and then go to the gym. Following this he was contacted by the school, I think he said 10:45, so he hurriedly headed straight out in his car, dialling the police en route. The police asked him to be at his home to meet with them so he returned back there and they arrived after 11am.

He didn't mention all the other stuff about the lady, P, but the mainstream media from the off had said there was a 'missing 20 minutes' - last sighting of N being 09:10 and P finding the dog 09:30. P tied the dog up, hurried off as she had to go to an appointment, later contacted her daughter in law, who then contacted the school, who then rang PA, PA rang the police (who may have already been aware from the school / unsure). Obviously this all hinges on the account of P otherwise there's a whole lot longer time missing than 20 mins.
 
ruby925 said:
My understanding was that PA did call the police after receiving the call from the school, but he did arrive at the bench and was given the phone and Willow before he was asked by the police to return home. JMO
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Ah maybe so, I wasn't quite clear on that aspect because I was always wondering who 'processed' the dog and the phone? What if someone tried to mug N and there was a physical struggle over the phone, that potential evidence is forever lost. We also never got told whether the police did actually arrive to find the dog tied with string or not - it was stated the dog was moving somewhat agitatedly between the bench and the gate but no formal mention of it being tied.

Surely if N intended to take her own life, she herself would have tethered her dog for various reasons - a) to make sure it was easily found; b) to make sure it didn't follow her; c) to prevent the dog being shot at, as dogs are supposed to be on leash and someone nearby had threatened to shoot dogs off lead due to chicken worrying and sheep worried - as verified by the tripadvisor feedback from the campsite and also the amateur sign nailed to the tree; d) to preserve the life of the dog as it could have been hit by a car or fallen in the river itself; e) because the dog no doubt meant a lot to her daughters.
 
WAWAW said:
It's the context. An earlier post discussed the probability of an accident killing by drowning. The probability in this case is if someone wants to commit suicide this is one of the rarer methods
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Makes one wonder in general how many people are dumped in water and then later assumed as a suicide :(
 
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