WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #1

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Has anyone heard anything about volunteers needed for search help?
 
raeann said:
That's what I thought at first, but the actual people who picked up the van said that it was BACKED into the water, and that it was the back tires that had been spun when trying to get it out, apparently.

jmoo
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If it was not that much submerged, I wonder if they just took off on foot and were using their "scout" skills to try to get back but went totally wrong way??

I hope they have choppers out there, and lots of dogs

I also wonder if one of them might have been out there trying to push the van out and somehow slipped and the other tried to save them or something?? we don't know how cold that water is or how deep

that lake sure looked cold and dark to me
 
Mealy said that as she left the home, Smiley made another series of driving errors that eventually led her to a hard-to-find dirt path and driving onto the beach. "It gets dark up there. It gets really, really dark," Mealy said. "I was there Sunday afternoon. I had trouble finding that trail in the daylight."
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Being that it was down a dead-end road, and then going down a dirt road around a bluff to the water makes no sense," said Simmons, "she would not go down that road, it's a dead-end."
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http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-031410-missingmomandson,0,6651388.story

I am starting to wonder if it was her that drove it there. I am having doubts.
 
And let me add, at least from video, it looks like they were both wearing red coats? That's good- easier to spot.

Couldn't sleep last night, thinking of them out there in the cold. :( I fear Az stayed with his mom no matter what. I hope they are found today.
 
LogicalMinds said:
But who would be out there on that road by that water?? not a likely place for a predator to wait ??

unless they were spotted and followed??

I personally think it much more likely that they somehow got disoriented in the water, one f them was drowning the other tried to save them and they were pulled under

how big and deep is that ?? lake??? how oold is the water?? shock, cold hypothermia.....they also had on heavy clothing

I don't know if there are currents or how one would be pulled out there though
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I was thinking more along the lines of them walking back along the road looking for help. That may be precluded by a lack of footprints though. Or she could have stopped at another house asking to use the phone and met the wrong people. They could have been trying to ditch the van somehow, although evidence of trying to back out of the water could go against that theory. I also had the thought that if a perp were trying to ditch the van and make it look like Shantina and child had been stranded there he might take the purse but not realize there was a wallet also.
 
PaulR said:
I agree, it looks like she may have had some kind of head injury. She did not look right.

It has been relatively nice (i.e. not raining!) over the past few days - today was balmy by Puget Sound standards - but it's still pretty chilly at night. Not freezing but I would not want to be out in the elements.

That "lake" is part of Puget Sound, it is COLD (upper 40s) and you would not want to be in that water. They would not survive very long. :(

Looking at the Google map, you can see there are many houses nearby - nearly all of the beachfront in Puget Sound is populated - but there is also a large wooded area to the south. She may well be there. It looks large enough for someone to "get lost in."
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He is very knowledgeable of the area and this is what he feels the temp of the water would be. Not good.
 
LogicalMinds said:
But who would be out there on that road by that water?? not a likely place for a predator to wait ??

unless they were spotted and followed??

I personally think it much more likely that they somehow got disoriented in the water, one f them was drowning the other tried to save them and they were pulled under

how big and deep is that ?? lake??? how oold is the water?? shock, cold hypothermia.....they also had on heavy clothing

I don't know if there are currents or how one would be pulled out there though
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It gets really, really dark," Mealy said. "I was there Sunday afternoon. I had trouble finding that trail in the daylight."
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http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-031410-missingmomandson,0,6651388.story

I don't think a predator was at the water, that is where they dumped the vehicle.( if she came upon one) According to Le ,it is not easy to find in daylight so it seems bizarre , she would find it at night.
 
LogicalMinds said:
how big and deep is that ?? lake??? how oold is the water?? shock, cold hypothermia.....they also had on heavy clothing

I don't know if there are currents or how one would be pulled out there though
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I'd just like to reiterate that the van was in Puget Sound, which is a very large inlet of the Pacific Ocean. Olympia is at the far southern end of the sound. The water is very cold this time of year (heck, it's cold even in August). IIRC, it tends to be shallower and have fewer currents in the Olympia area since it is essentially at the end, but I'm not a boater/hydrologist so I could very well be wrong. That said, there are still tides. One commenter on an article said that given what we know about the timeline, the van likely went in the water near low tide on Saturday night.

One possibility is that they set out walking along the beach after the van went in, but had their path cut off by the rising tide. :(

Also, while some areas of the waterfront are sandy/muddy, most of the beaches are rocky. It would be easy to twist your ankle there or cut yourself on some barnacles (I still have a big scar on my leg from a run-in with some barnacles when I swimming in Puget Sound). Probably not the kind of thing that would kill you, but it might be enough to make you say "ouch, I'm gonna rest here a while until I feel better"... tide comes in... you are unable to scurry up off the beach (lots of underbrush) so you try to slog through the very cold water... :(
 
How could so much go so wrong so fast? She had alot of contact with people too! IMO
 
twitter per daughter,,her Dad is going to be on MSNBC.
 
I've been lost in the dark roads of Puget Sound. Heck, even housed streets without street lights can be disorienting and I have a compass in my car. It is very easy to get lost out here and it really does sound like she was having physical problems to boot. If a "bad guy" came in to play, that would just be worse-on-worse. And, I hope, very improbable.
It is cold and dank out here. I think that is their worse enemy.
 
Not a LAKE people...this is salt water! The puget sound, connected to the pacific ocean. Very cold.
This story is so strange to me. IMO she looks ok in the videos, not in any immediate danger.
IMO either 3 things happened here:
1. She doesn't WANT to be found
2. Foul play, maybe the fiance or a random stranger
3. Medical condition: stroke, seizure, etc. She was apparantly nervous to go see her stepfather...maybe she was so nervous/anxious that she took anxiety meds and she had a bad reaction????
After a little Facebook snooping, i think i read that her mom commited suicide 4 years ago...just sayin'. :(
 
WhoDidIt? said:
Not a LAKE people...this is salt water! The puget sound, connected to the pacific ocean. Very cold.
This story is so strange to me. IMO she looks ok in the videos, not in any immediate danger.
IMO either 3 things happened here:
1. She doesn't WANT to be found
2. Foul play, maybe the fiance or a random stranger
3. Medical condition: stroke, seizure, etc. She was apparantly nervous to go see her stepfather...maybe she was so nervous/anxious that she took anxiety meds and she had a bad reaction????
After a little Facebook snooping, i think i read that her mom commited suicide 4 years ago...just sayin'. :(
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somebody somewhere knows something," Mealy said. "She could be missing voluntarily. Something untoward could have happened to her. She could have done something untoward to her son. We have no clue."
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LE is going over different scenarios as well.

http://www.q13fox.com/news/kcpq-031410-missingmomandson,0,6651388.story
 
WhoDidIt? said:
Not a LAKE people...this is salt water! The puget sound, connected to the pacific ocean. Very cold.
This story is so strange to me. IMO she looks ok in the videos, not in any immediate danger.
IMO either 3 things happened here:
1. She doesn't WANT to be found
2. Foul play, maybe the fiance or a random stranger
3. Medical condition: stroke, seizure, etc. She was apparantly nervous to go see her stepfather...maybe she was so nervous/anxious that she took anxiety meds and she had a bad reaction????
After a little Facebook snooping, i think i read that her mom commited suicide 4 years ago...just sayin'. :(
Click to expand...

I agree with you. Maybe she got nervous not wanting to get married in September? Saw Rob Simmons on MSNBC. Nothing new. I wish I could find the interview and watch the whole interview, I missed alot of it. Maybe they will have it on later?
Im hoping she found a vacant house thats up for sale and shes there with her son. Nothing makes sense.
 
It's odd, Shantina seems to have kept making turns towards the water (on the westside, out by Boston Harbor) when she should know that you have to go away from the water to get to Castle Rock. I could see accidentally ending up at the Handy Pantry trying to get back on the freeway, since that's still a fairly populated area, but I don't know why she would have gotten that far down Boston Harbor Rd. without thinking, "wow, this is getting pretty rural and I don't see any signs for I-5, better turn around and go back to town and try again." So many of the places she was at were a pretty straight shot to the freeway, too -- just go down Martin Way, Pacific Ave., or State from the diner and you're right near I-5, and it's even pretty simple to get to the freeway from Boston Harbor. Just another thing that points to her being in an unusual mental state, whether from injury, medical condition, drugs (medicine or otherwise), or something else.

I don't think she would have stopped at the house to ask to use the phone/get directions if she were intending to run away.
 
RubyRed said:
Thanks , I had not seen that. All the zig-zagging they show on the map is just so strange.
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Odd that the dogs haven't been able to give LE a clue about what happened to them..(.or did I miss what happened w/ the dogs following their scent?)
 
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