WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

[SMK]

By the way, I am assuming, above, that there is a possible (merely possible) double suicide or murder/suicide. I am not sure if the above was implying a murder, and with her leaving, which would be sinister and inexcusable.

 

[90Nine]

No, this is her ex husband that lived in Castle Rock. Mr. Smiley. She had emailed him she wanted to see him on her trip to see her step dad. He was expecting her. He was really emotional in a video they took. I think Robb prob knew they were going to see each other. I don't know why but my gut tells me he was jealous and desperate. Maybe the whole cancer thing has something to do w/ why I feel that way

I didn't hear this - where did you find this information? Really intersting..that's what everyone thought in the beginning, that she was maybe waiting to meet someone.

 

[Jules71]

This is interesting, because although it seems that she was lost, nervous, perhaps on meds, and just parked to "sleep it off" and did not consider the tide......there IS something suspicious, as another poster had said, about her leaving almost a "bread crumbs trail" . I had read somewhere that her own mother had committed suicide. If so, there is often an intense urge to recreate this scene (from what I have read of people who have attempted suicide on the anniversary of a parent or sibling's suicide). of course , this is all speculative at this juncture. But perhaps going to see the stepfather , or planning to, brought back unbearable memories? Perhaps she blamed him? All so tragic, in any case, for the child, and for Shantina , too, who was, like all of us, once a child herself.

I remember reading on here (I will go back and try to find the post) that her mother committed suicide 4 years ago and she had not seen her step dad in 4 years. I think this could definitely be reason for her to be anxious, stressed out, possibly drinking, etc.

 

[90Nine]

I think you nailed it here in saying he may have known SS was going to see the 'ex'. Maybe is he is jealous or controlling, or maybe SS wanted him there for support, really we have no idea and are just theorizing. My thought was maybe she felt she owed the 'ex' an apology for something in the past. Isn't there something in the AA 12 step's about owning up to one's past behavior? IIRC he was the petitioner in their divorce.

Right - she had recently gotten in touch with a lot of people from her past.

 

[SMK]

I remember reading on here (I will go back and try to find the post) that her mother committed suicide 4 years ago and she had not seen her step dad in 4 years. I think this could definitely be reason for her to be anxious, stressed out, possibly drinking, etc.

Yes, if this was the case, this visit was not a good idea. In any case, not good for her to attempt alone. In the sense of it being a "trigger".

 

[90Nine]

If the hatch windshield was covered with mud splatter is it possible she opened the hatch to look out to see what was going on out there?

Or maybe to get Az out above the water level since the trunk is higher.

 

[Jules71]

Or maybe to get Az out above the water level since the trunk is higher.

And that's why I wondered if you can open the hatch from the inside of the vehicle or from the key remote.

 

[90Nine]

You know both of these things how exactly? Really, I'm curious how you know that he didn't confront her about her drinking at some point.

I actually didn't say that he didn't confront her. I think he did, absolutely. We don't know what went on about that. I'm sure it was a big deal in the home if she was having so much stress from things in her life.

What I was saying way that he let her drink on vacation. Which was not good. But, we don't know if that was a normal thing for them to casually drink at restaurants, etc. What we do know is that she was on that vacation. the handle of the beer faces her.

My thoughts are this trip and having the drinks is what caused her relapse.

 

[90Nine]

Yes - with help so nearby, why wasn't help sought?

She had no problem stopping here, there, & everywhere earlier that night "asking for directions".

If she was truly stuck in the sand on the beach, why not go for help - the house was just up the gravel drive. In fact, she passed it on her way down to the beach, so she knew it was there, and knew where it was.

I think because if she went for help, the police would respond and she had been drinking.

 

[90Nine]

the other thing i thought of today is that if the minivan had a dvd player (which was stated in media postings) did it also have a navigation system...

Does anyone know the year, make and model of the van?

 

[SMK]

I actually didn't say that he didn't confront her. I think he did, absolutely. We don't know what went on about that. I'm sure it was a big deal in the home if she was having so much stress from things in her life.

What I was saying way that he let her drink on vacation. Which was not good. But, we don't know if that was a normal thing for them to casually drink at restaurants, etc. What we do know is that she was on that vacation. the handle of the beer faces her.

My thoughts are this trip and having the drinks is what caused her relapse.

I think it is somewhat sadistic, to take a recovering alcoholic on a wine-tasting vacation.....

 

[impatientredhead]

This seems more likely to me. The wondering about forceable drowning was just a curiosity factor that occured to me about how ME would determine an intentional drowning that didn't occur in a bathtub or swimming pool but in a natural environment where it might appear more obviously accidental. Ya know?

Lack of defensive wounds would be one sign that it was accidental.

You are not going to drown somebody without there being signs of a major struggle. Drowning victims have taken people who were trying to rescue under with them in the sheer panic of it all.

 

[90Nine]

I just looked at the photos again and they appear to have less than 12 inches clearance. I see where the slide door was left all the way open on the left side and the hatch open also.
With them open, it would flood in quickly. And of course be much colder too. So I don't think they were just in there passed out trying to get some sleep. It appears not to have been dug into the sand, as I was thinking.
However it does look like tires maybe drifted on the bottom with the tide to the right somewhat.

Was the parking brake on? It is on a backward incline toward the water.

This is about 10:30 at night? It looks to me like she abandoned the vehicle for some reason. Several hours before the tide came in.

the photos look like there is only one tire stuck - what are thoughts on getting out of mud and sand if only one tire is stuck?

 

[impatientredhead]

I think it is somewhat sadistic, to take a recovering alcoholic on a wine-tasting vacation.....

He would not be the first loved on to believe the "I am in a different place now", "I can drink responsibly and socially", that is all behind me now nonsense.

 

[SMK]

He would not be the first loved on to believe the "I am in a different place now", "I can drink responsibly and socially", that is all behind me now nonsense.

Good point. I had not thought of that. But you are right, he probably thought, "That was then, this is a new start". Yes, I agree.

 

[Knox]

http://www.imdb.com/video/hulu/vi2758673433/

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4114833/new-clue-in-search-for-missing-mom/?playlist_id=87249

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdGlRivU-ik&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JldH1zZw5w&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=po-izWZ83oc

 

[Knox]

I had not noticed before; In the second video link above, while pulling around the gas island, she turns too tightly and clips the curb.

 

[Jules71]

snipped:
http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Sea...g-8year-old-son-Missing-persons-flier-website

The van is a 2005 Dodge Caravan, tan, Washington license plate 227 ZRS.

 

[90Nine]

Okay before anyone shoots down or discounts what I am about to say just remember that we're here to look at ALL possibilities, scenarios, etc. Without talking about and disproving all irrelevant or incorrect scenarios or facts that are dealing with this extremely mysterious tragedy that has occured, without doing all of that we may never figure just what brought an innocent child's short life to the tragic end. That said, here goes something I just want to "throw out there". It infact may have already been discussed but I have not come across any post that even points in this direction. What do we know about the Williams(the last people known to see mom&son)? Originally I was under the belief that it was a much older couple, even somewhat elderly. But after spending the last 24hrs. searching thru all news links and interviews pertaining to this case and upon seeing video interviews of the Williams I realize they are NOT elderly, not even near an older couple. In fact also have teenaged son that also was home that night. I am sure that LE is/has looked into them, especially since they are the last, on record, to see AZ alive.
What if Shantina and AZ never left that residence? They easily couldve "staged" that van scene on the beach. They are some of the only people in this world that WOULD KNOW of&how to get to that private piece of beach.(I'll have to look for link but in a report I believe was taken last Sunday from them, they state that they even drove there next day in "daylight" after hearing of the news). As I said, this is just a scenario that I'm putting out there and am NOT saying that I even believe it to be true. But am racking my brain to go thru every single possibility and scenario that couldve happened. And as many tragic stories that we discuss everyday this scenario would not be out of the realm of possibilities. As I said they couldve staged van on beach, disposed of or even drowned little AZ there at the van sight and then there could be all kinds of scenarios of what has been done and what was the plan to do with Shantina. I mean a young, attractive, possibly inebriated woman& her young son going up to a stranger's door late at night& in the middle of nowhere? Most of us would be extremely hesitant to do this? And for what reason would most of us feel extremely hesitant to do this? For the exact reason that I am saying this theory now. Because of the strangers that are behind that door you would be knocking on. There would be too much risk of what could be done to yourself&your child. Im just asking what if? What if thats what happened when her cloudy judgement took her to knocking on a strangers door with her lil boy right next to her????? AND OF COURSE THIS IS JUST AN OPINION, A THEORY. AND AS I SAID, I AM NOT SAYING THAT IT IS MY BELIEF. jUST ONE OF THE MANY MANY SCENARIOS THAT COULDVE OCCURED LAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

The only thing about this is if they had gone in the morning, they wouldn't have been able to drive as far into the beach as they did. They are parked the lowest part of the shore at the lowest tide that night (1.7 feet at 10pm)
and it went to 14 feet at 6am - also was about 4 feet or so high.

 

[90Nine]

Here is a pic of the shoes.

http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Disappearance-of-Wash-family-vexes-police-87828912.html

Shantina was wearing dark shoes like that in the videos. But the Williams said she was barefoot when she came to their home. So cold outside - why would she be barefoot.