WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #4

[Allyne]

Can someone help me out please?

In the earlier reports, it was said the van was under water 'to the top of the seats'. But it seems like I recall the 911 call or perhaps an interview later saying the van was completely under water. Has there ever been a definite statement as to how far up the water came on the van?

ETA: that clean windshield really bugs me...

Seems to me that the water from the tide explains the windshield being clean. Yes, in the 911 call, he states it's almost completely submerged.

2010-03-13 10:29 PM PST 0.49 meters Low Tide
2010-03-14 6:00 AM PDT 4.18 meters High Tide 13.714 ft
2010-03-14 7:26 AM PDT Sunrise

 

[floridaheather]

Addiction is addiction - once a relapse occurs there is no logic to what one does. A crystal meth addict, herione addict, alcohol, or Oxycontin addict, all have one thing in common: They are driven by the need to feed their addiction and with that, logic goes out the window.

Along with that goes the fact they become vulnerable and make easy prey. LE have found nothing that would indicate 'foul play' and as for the very kind people who tried to help - the ones who gave directions, gave the child pizza, and let Shantina use their phone - these people did the best they could when seeing a child and a lost, confused mom at the door. They are not being pursued by LE, media, or the family. Please, let's leave these innocent people out of this conversation. MOO mho jmho

No one smelled alcohol on her. No one. No one reported her as acting intoxicated. We know she tripped in a parking lot. That's it. That doesn't equal drunk. How do we know that she didn't buy that wine to take to her step-dads for dinner. We don't.

I don't think the peops who let her use the phone were anything but nice. That said, we don't know who was out on that beach at night that we don't even know abt.

 

[PaulR]

She probably did drown, but maybe she didn't.

There's no proof she is alive.

Had her son not washed up on Fox Island , I'd be more willing to believe that they were still alive and perhaps the victims of foul play.

 

[houndstooth]

In the video that Sorrel posted it shows timeline of stops. The diner was closer to her destination. Yet she backtracked to her next stop. The pattern I see is staying near to where she would end up later in the evening. One stop not on the map is where she was at 6:45! I want to know where she called him from. Darn.

 

[BeanE]

No one smelled alcohol on her. No one. No one reported her as acting intoxicated. We know she tripped in a parking lot. That's it. That doesn't equal drunk. How do we know that she didn't buy that wine to take to her step-dads for dinner. We don't.

I don't think the peops who let her use the phone were anything but nice. That said, we don't know who was out on that beach at night that we don't even know abt.

The waitress in the diner reported her as acting intoxicated.

 

[floridaheather]

The waitress at the diner said she seemed to be drunk.

K. Did that waitress say why? Was it because of her leaving w/out the food. Or was it b/c she tripped in the parking lot? Did she say she smelled alcohol on her? I am not saying she wasn't drinking. Funny the people at the house she went to said she didn't seem drunk, but then again, she didn't leave a corndog at their house and fall down in front of them either.

 

[BeanE]

K. Did that waitress say why? Was it because of her leaving w/out the food. Or was it b/c she tripped in the parking lot? Did she say she smelled alcohol on her? I am not saying she wasn't drinking. Funny the people at the house she went to said she didn't seem drunk, but then again, she didn't leave a corndog at their house and fall down in front of them either.

It was prior to her falling down, prior to her leaving the corndog, while she was still in the restaurant.

 

[Miss Optimism]

Addiction is addiction - once a relapse occurs there is no logic to what one does. A crystal meth addict, herione addict, alcohol, or Oxycontin addict, all have one thing in common: They are driven by the need to feed their addiction and with that, logic goes out the window.

Along with that goes the fact they become vulnerable and make easy prey. LE have found nothing that would indicate 'foul play' and as for the very kind people who tried to help - the ones who gave directions, gave the child pizza, and let Shantina use their phone - these people did the best they could when seeing a child and a lost, confused mom at the door. They are not being pursued by LE, media, or the family. Please, let's leave these innocent people out of this conversation. MOO mho jmho

I totally agree with everything you said. I think that all of the people who helped her were trusting and kind. I think Shantina's judgment was off, but like you said, there is no logic to what an addict does. I would never, ever, blame that sweet couple or the people at the gas station and I'm sorry if it seemed otherwise. We can definitely leave them out of the convo.

 

[90Nine]

There is a lot of focus on labeling Shantina as an alcoholic, wondering if she actually did these things as a result of drinking, whether she was abducted and something happened outside of her control to cause this tragic event.

IMO because of the type of work I do, you have to go off of the information you have, which are leads and which create 'a story'.

If the leads 'create the story' and nothing else works to create story or even partially, then people logically take the path of the leads and what makes sense based on a number of factors.

Shantina's history (as supplied by the fiance and the media) give us part of the story as to what happened. The relapse, the wine bottle, the contacting people from her past recently, the stress she was under (we don't know if the fiance's medical condition was the only thing bothering her - I would imagine not).

In the work I do, people like to say 'the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior'. I don't agree with this all the time. When I do tend to agree with it is when people make the same poor choices with the same results over and over again. Especially when they've had to pay heavy consequences.

SS has 10 reports into CPS. She has a DUI and a hit and run. From my research I found that the original DUI case goes back to 2001 - revisited in 2005 and then CPS took her son away from her for 1 year in 2007 (while she was in a relationship with RS or perhaps she started dating him during the time she didn't have Az) because of an alcohol related incident that put him in danger. This tells me that she is very capable of repeating these poor choices. You can also see a pattern with the years; 2001, 2005,2007 now 2010.

So no, we don't have a toxicology report saying she had been drinking. But, we do have a video of her buying wine. We do have a fiance saying she relapsed. We do have a history of very poor choices and alcohol abuse and heavy consequences that did not seem to make a difference at the time she chose to drink with her son present.

IMO she didn't have to smell if she had been drinking. She could have brushed her teeth, had gum and put lotion or perfume on. In addition, psychologically, you see a nice woman in a minivan with a child and it's not something you look for unless you are the type of person who is observant in that way.

I hope that makes sense. Just my opinion

 

[RubyRed]

She probably did drown, but maybe she didn't. But even if she did, I am not convinced that the jug of wine & the disorientation add up to alcohol stupor. NO ONE who spoked w/ her SMELLED alcohol or said she seemed drunk. NOT even the LAST folks to talk to her that night, who answered their door.

She had relapsed, drove over a curb, fell down, drove in endless circles. Ordered food and left without it, Went to a home because of a christian sticker, appeared disoriented, if she wasn't intoxicated, then she seriously needed psychiatric help. jmo

 

[Allyne]

Found this handy dandy conversion chart...

2010-03-13 11:12 PM PST 0.01 knots Slack, Flood Begins
2010-03-14 1:41 AM PST 1.70 knots Max Flood
2010-03-14 6:19 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack, Ebb Begins
2010-03-14 7:26 AM PDT Sunrise
2010-03-14 9:30 AM PDT -2.08 knots Max Ebb


1.70=1.956 mph

2.08=2.394 mph

So we have 13' feet of water moving at over 2 mph...

Because of the relatively cold water temperatures, survivability of personnel
who are immersed in the water by falling overboard or other means, is severely
jeopardized. Hypothermia resulting from immersion, either intentional or unintentional, is a life-threatening hazard that must be taken seriously Non-swimming, average person has a life expectancy of approximately two hours in calm water with a temperature of 44°F (7°C), and four hours in calm water with a temperature of 56°F (13°C). The times could be reduced to one and two hours respectively for "fast coolers", i.e. persons of low body weight, children, light clothing, or those who are exercising such as persons without PFDs who must swim to remain afloat.

I was getting images of Shantina face down in a cove starting w/ a B..

traversed via Google maps and found Baird Cove and Butterball Cove

 

[Miss Optimism]

There is a lot of focus on labeling Shantina as an alcoholic, wondering if she actually did these things as a result of drinking, whether she was abducted and something happened outside of her control to cause this tragic event.

IMO because of the type of work I do, you have to go off of the information you have, which are leads and which create 'a story'.

If the leads 'create the story' and nothing else works to create story or even partially, then people logically take the path of the leads.

Shantina's history (as supplied by the fiance and the media) give us part of the story as to what happened. The relapse, the wine bottle, the contacting people from her past recently, the stress she was under (we don't know if the fiance's medical condition was the only thing bothering her - I would imagine not).

In the work I do, people like to say 'the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior'. I don't agree with this all the time. When I do tend to agree with it is when people over and over again make the same decisions, even if they have been extremely poor choices in the past.

SS has 10 reports into CPS. She has a DUI and a hit and run. From my research I found that the original DUI case goes back to 2001 - revisited in 2005 and then CPS took her son away from her for 1 year in 2007 because of an alcohol related incident that put him in danger. This tells me that she is very capable of repeating these poor choices. You can also see a pattern with the years; 2001, 2005,2007 now 2010.

So, no, we don't have a toxicology report saying she had been drinking. But, we do have a video of her buying wine. We do have a fiance saying she relapsed. We do have a history of very poor choices and alcohol abuse.

IMO she didn't have to smell if she had been drinking. She could have brushed her teeth, had gum and put lotion or perfume on. In addition, psychologically, you see a nice woman in a minivan with a child and it's not something you look for unless you are the type of person who is observant in that way.

I hope that makes sense. Just my opinion

Very well put, thank you! For those of us questioning her behavior that night, it definitely has a lot to do with her past behavior as well. She was obviously a negligent mother, can anyone really argue with that?

 

[floridaheather]

OLYMPIA — Thurston County Sheriff's detectives are still "following up leads" in an effort to find Shantina Smiley, but are not conducting any searches for the missing Silverdale woman.

Detective Lt. Chris Mealy said Monday that investigators are working on several tips that have come into their office. But there's still no sign of Smiley, 29, who disappeared March 13.

"Smiley and her 8-year-old son, Azriel Carver, were headed from Silverdale to her stepfather’s house in Castle Rock when they vanished. The van she was driving, found the next day, was abandoned and partially submerged in water on a remote Puget Sound beach north of Olympia.

Carver's body was found Thursday on a beach on the south end of Fox Island, near Gig Harbor. The boy's death was found to be an accidental drowning.

Mealy asks anybody who has information to call the Thurston County Sheriff’s Office at (360) 786-5530, or their local law enforcement at 911.":doh:



Read more: http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2010/...ing-leads-case-missing-silverd/#ixzz0j4Qq7Jpf

 

[Calliope]

This recording station may be closer (seems to be directly across from where van was found), and the times are slightly different:

http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/1785.html?y=2010&m=3&d=13

2010-03-13 6:14 PM PST Sunset

2010-03-13 7:49 PM PST -0.60 knots Max Ebb

2010-03-13 10:51 PM PST 0.01 knots Slack, Flood Begins

2010-03-14 1:59 AM PST 1.02 knots Max Flood

2010-03-14 5:49 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack, Ebb Begins

2010-03-14 7:26 AM PDT Sunrise

2010-03-14 9:32 AM PDT -0.52 knots Max Ebb

2010-03-14 12:20 PM PDT 0.00 knots Slack, Flood Begins

2010-03-14 3:08 PM PDT 0.81 knots Max Flood


What time was the 911 call made ?

 

[sorrell skye]

One of the things (among others) that's curious to me are the various things that were found washed up on the shore about 1/4 mile north from where the van was found (that were ID'd as belonging to either SS or AC).

A shoe. (belonging to SS)

An empty water bottle. (similar to the one purchased earlier)

An asthma inhaler. (belonging to AC)

An orange ball. (belonging to AC)

A half-full jug of wine. (similar to the one purchased by SS earlier)


These items all have a different weight. For instance, the half-full jug of wine (made of glass) would weigh more than the empty water bottle (made of light-weight plastic).

The same is true of the other items - all different weights, which would cause them to either float easily or be more apt to sink, and therefore be carried by the tide differently.

Yet, mysteriously, they were all discovered just 1/4 mile north from where the van was found.

1/4 mile is approx. 1300 feet (give or take a few inches).

ETA: At low tide, it's entirely possible to walk a 1/4 mile north from where the van was found.

 

[Calliope]

The waitress at the diner said she seemed to be drunk.

Wasn't that in a comment attached to an article online? And wasn't it a subsequent comment where the initial one didn't mention anything to that effect?

 

[BeanE]

Wasn't that in a comment attached to an article online? And wasn't it a subsequent comment where the initial one didn't mention anything to that effect?

Yes it was in a comment on an article. No there wasn't a subsequent comment that I've seen - there was another article that mentioned the comment and redacted parts of the comment rather than quote it in full.

 

[Allyne]

What time was the 911 call made ?

I don't think I've seen or heard anything about what time, other than him saying the van was still mostly covered with water.

 

[Jani]

One of the things (among others) that's curious to me are the various things that were found washed up on the shore about 1/4 mile north from where the van was found (that were ID'd as belonging to either SS or AC).

A shoe. (belonging to SS)

An empty water bottle. (similar to the one purchased earlier)

An asthma inhaler. (belonging to AC)

An orange ball. (belonging to AC)

A half-full jug of wine. (similar to the one purchased by SS earlier)


These items all have a different weight. For instance, the half-full jug of wine (made of glass) would weigh more than the empty water bottle (made of light-weight plastic).

The same is true of the other items - all different weights, which would cause them to either float easily or be more apt to sink, and therefore be carried by the tide differently.

Yet, mysteriously, they all ended up just 1/4 mile north from where the van was found.

1/4 mile is approx. 1300 feet (give or take a few inches).

And WHO does the larger man's shoe belong to?? It appeared to be in the same condition as the one belonging to SS, which would indicate it went into the water at the same time.

 

[Calliope]

The waitress in the diner reported her as acting intoxicated.

IIRC, it was another employee (owner?) of the diner who said the waitress felt SS was drunk. Hearsay, in any case ... this is how rumors grow legs.