I have never thought that BL would have gone to the Carlton Reserve. Perhaps he went there earlier so that his DNA would be there and his parents staged the Mustang. IMO the only reason to go there would be to suicide but IMO his body would have been found by now if that was the case.
I am now tending towards agreeing with John Walsh that BL is in Mexico. However, I'm wondering how it could have been possible so I need your help.
My bet is that his parents could have driven him to the border on the 7th September (as they claimed they left the family camping trip on the 7th even though they booked until the 8th). There is apparently a border crossing where we have been told it is easy to get through. Then he could have walked across. Does anyone know what towns are near that border? Would it be Brownsville? It's a 21 hour trip by car so would take at least two days but with three drivers on the way there, and two drivers on the return, the whole return trip for the parents could have taken three days so they would be back by the 10th September. North Port Police showed up at the family home on 11 September.
Maybe it would have been easier for BL to fly from Tampa to Mexico City which takes 6 hours but it is not direct or from Orlando there are direct 4 hour flights. In either of these two modes of getting to Mexico, he would have to have used his own ID and would need to have had a passport, Covid vaccine proof or a Covid test. He would possibly not have had time to get a fake ID unless they are instant online. He could apply for that when in Mexico.
Although US citizens do not need a visa for Mexico for short stays, they are required to obtain a Forma Migratoria Multiple (FMM) document to present upon arrival at Mexican border control. Also known as a tourist card for Mexico, the FMM is an obligatory requirement for all US citizens traveling more than 20 kilometers into Mexican territory, and planning to stay more than 72 hours. A Mexican tourist card for United States citizens is a single-entry document which becomes invalid once the holder leaves Mexico, meaning that it is necessary to submit a new FMM for every trip to the country.
Mexico Entry and FMM Requirements for US Citizens
Many US citizens I have met in my travels (I am Australian) have retired in Mexico and love it there especially in Jalisco. It is also very cheap to live there and has a good climate. BL could blend in there well as he has dark hair (if he grows it) and can speak Spanish. It is quite possible that BL's parents have contacts there where BL could live for a while until he can find work. His face would not be as recognisable there as it would be in the US. The parents could use this contact to communicate with and send money to BL when necessary as he would have left with a stash of cash.
Hiking in the winter in the US IMO would be difficult in BL's situation. There are apparently over 1,000 fugitives from the US currently living in Mexico. Mexico will not extradite US citizens if they are likely to face the death penalty. I heard that the death penalty would be off the table for BL.
The problem with the Mexico scenario is that BL might have had to use his own identity to get into Mexico so there would be records. But with the focus of the FBI on the Carlton Reserve, have they even checked flights? If they have, did they check them for between 7th and 10th September when they believed BL was still living with his parents? BL has not been seen since 6th September.
What do you think?
