2022 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

[PayrollNerd]

MSN

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week,” said NHC Hurricane Specialist Brad Reinhart.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, forecasters give the system a 30% chance of formation in the next five days.

 

[anneg]

MSN

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week,” said NHC Hurricane Specialist Brad Reinhart.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, forecasters give the system a 30% chance of formation in the next five days.

The quiet has been nice. It sounds like Saharan dust may account for the recent lack of tropical storm development.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Saharan dust clouds blanket Florida and the Atlantic coast. How does it affect weather?

I agree the dust blowing thru is making a difference. My eyes are dripping every single time I go outside.

Interesting how it effects hurricanes too.

Snip
According to the National Weather Service, there are three characteristics of these Saharan dust outbreaks that can affect tropical cyclones, tropical disturbances, and the general climatology of the Atlantic tropical atmosphere:

1. Extremely Dry Air: The Saharan Air Layer’s dry, dusty air has about 50% less moisture than the typical tropical atmosphere. This extremely dry air can weaken a tropical cyclone or tropical disturbance by promoting downdrafts around the storm.
2. African Easterly Jet: Strong winds in the Saharan Air Layer (25-55 mph or 10-25 meters per second) can substantially increase the vertical wind shear in and around the storm environment. This “mid-level jet” of enhanced winds, typically found at a height of 6,500-14,500 feet (2000-4500 meters), can cause tilting of the tropical cyclone vortex with height and can disrupt the storm’s internal heat engine.
3. Warm Temperatures: The Saharan Air Layer’s warmth acts to stabilize the atmosphere, which can suppress the formation of clouds. This stabilizing effect is produced when the Saharan Air Layer’s warm, buoyant air rides above relatively cooler, denser air. The Saharan Air Layer’s suspended mineral dust also absorbs sunlight, which helps maintain its warmth as it crosses the Atlantic Ocean.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Not a lot going on except for the NW gulf off Texas. It would be a great relief to them if they get a slow steady rain.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits is a good resource for clear simple explanations of weather events.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits. 77,022 likes · 42 talking about this. Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. Levi has a...

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A weak circulation is developing along an old frontal boundary in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, with a broad area of associated thunderstorms. Gradual development into a tropical depression before moving westward into #Texas over the weekend would not be surprising. However, NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center gives low chances of this happening right now. Regardless, the primary impact is likely to be a few inches of rainfall in southern Texas over the weekend, which may be mostly beneficial for the region. We'll keep monitoring the system for further development.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Mother Nature gearing up for lots of tropical trauma & drama!!

Watching Tropical Wave That Just Came Off of Africa - Videos from The Weather Channel

This is the time of year we keep a close eye of systems that come off of Africa. And the National Hurricane Center has given a tropical wave just off of Africa, a 20% chance of development. - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com

weather.com

 

[UnapologeticallyAspie]

Mother Nature gearing up for lots of tropical trauma & drama!!

Watching Tropical Wave That Just Came Off of Africa - Videos from The Weather Channel

This is the time of year we keep a close eye of systems that come off of Africa. And the National Hurricane Center has given a tropical wave just off of Africa, a 20% chance of development. - Videos from The Weather Channel | weather.com

weather.com

View attachment 360937

I recently listened to a few different meteorologists that said there’s a possibility of a large hurricane that could pose a serious threat to the US in the next 7-10 days. However it’s not discussed on the NHC/NOAA website.

National Hurricane Center

 

[anneg]

I recently listened to a few different meteorologists that said there’s a possibility of a large hurricane that could pose a serious threat to the US in the next 7-10 days. However it’s not discussed on the NHC/NOAA website.

National Hurricane Center

Here's the NHC's 5-day outlook graphic:

Discussion:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

I reckon we are in wait and see mode for now.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Well it looks like peace will be elusive for the next couple months. Super glad my oldest is done with offshore season. No more research trips out into the Gulf until spring.

A named tropical system is likely by Labor Day. Here's how it could affect weekend plans | CNN

The National Hurricane Center is actively watching four areas right now for tropical development, and two have a decent shot of affecting the US on Labor Day weekend.

www.cnn.com

The main area of concern is still well out in the Atlantic, but it has the best chance of becoming our next named storm (Danielle).

 

[anneg]

Well it looks like peace will be elusive for the next couple months. Super glad my oldest is done with offshore season. No more research trips out into the Gulf until spring.

A named tropical system is likely by Labor Day. Here's how it could affect weekend plans | CNN

The National Hurricane Center is actively watching four areas right now for tropical development, and two have a decent shot of affecting the US on Labor Day weekend.

www.cnn.com

The main area of concern is still well out in the Atlantic, but it has the best chance of becoming our next named storm (Danielle).

Potentially good news from the article:

Right now, the forecast models have the storm staying north of the Leeward Islands, making a curve to the northeast, and staying out to sea.

It could have an interaction with Bermuda, but right now, (key words 'right now') it does not pose a direct threat to the United States.

Also good news that your daughter won't be making research trips in the Gulf until next spring!!

 

[PayrollNerd]

Let's hope some of these just stay as a "fish spinner" and leave us humans alone.

Flhurricane.com

Flhurricane.com. 3,447 likes · 17 talking about this. Welcome to the FLHurricane.com Facebook page. Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995. For nearly three decades we have shared expert analysis,...

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has continued to increase and become more concentrated overnight.
However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation
remains elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional
gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest,
toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible, and the
system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far
eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or
so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form later this week while the
system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown

 

[UnapologeticallyAspie]

As of 8AM:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little this morning. Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the
northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized. Some
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during
the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone
over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles
west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[MimosaMornings]

Not sure what the possible impact could be for the east coast area, possible enhanced rip current threat at beaches for the Labor Day weekend?
Gusty winds and flight changes/disruptions due to flight pattern changes to avoid an offshore route along the east coast corridor.
JMO

 

[JerseyGirl]

Atlantic system expected to become tropical depression, could impact NC coast

There are three areas in the Atlantic the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on as we get close to the start of Labor Day weekend.

abc11.com

There are three areas in the Atlantic the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on as we get close to the start of Labor Day weekend.

The NHC says shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. More gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.


There is a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa toward the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has a medium chance of development. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic.

The last group of thunderstorms is well north of us and is not expected to be a concern for our area.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Danielle, the fish spinner.

Tropical Storm Danielle forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Danielle strengthened from Tropical Depression Five, which formed in the northern Atlantic Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system was previously designated as Invest 93-L, which had a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, which includes a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane.

The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving east-northeast at 2 mph.

The system is forecast to become a hurricane by the weekend into early next week as it remains generally over the north-central Atlantic. Tropical Storm Danielle is not a threat to Florida or the United States.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Storm Earl

As Danielle weakens, another named storm forms in the Atlantic | CNN

As Danielle weakened while churning in the open waters of the North Atlantic early Saturday, another storm has developed to its south near the Caribbean and may bring flooding to the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

www.cnn.com

The storm is forecast to move west-northwest, producing rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across the Leeward Islands, US and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Updates as of today:

A New Disturbance Develops in the Tropics

A new tropical wave has developed off the coast of Africa in the Atlantic Ocean. The disorganized system has a 20% chance of developing within the next few days.

And another disturbance the ABC 7 meteorological team has been tracking has a 50% chance of developing into the next named storm within five days.

Earl will continue to track north and will not threaten the United States.

Danielle is expected to weaken over the next two days and remain far from land.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Storm Fiona

Tropical Storm Fiona moving toward Caribbean. Slow strengthening possible over next few daysTropical Storm Fiona moving toward Caribbean. Slow strengthening possible over next few days

 

[anneg]

Update on Hurricane Fiona from the National Hurricane Center:

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hurricane Fiona making her path of destruction.

Hurricane Fiona makes landfall in Dominican Republic after hitting Puerto Rico

Hurricane Fiona delivered "catastrophic" damage to Puerto Rico, and the storm made landfall in the Dominican Republic on Monday. No deaths have been reported in Puerto Rico.

www.foxnews.com