Wow. I love how you took that one bit (that deviates from Rational Choice) and came up with very good reasons why he did what he did.
If he in fact had a habit of hot prowling, that would fit Rational Choice Theory (get the facts, make rational choices). For those not familiar, this is a theory about how to reason out a better crime, weighing the risks and deciding the odds are on one's own side.
Originally, I thought the theory of "just went into a frenzy" when things didn't go his way was a bit out there, but the more I read about RCT (not used by criminals - used by criminologists, interestingly), I am beginning to see it your way. If he had done multiple stalking forays, this makes sense.
One can almost sense the rising tension, in your account. He sets out from Pullman at 2 am'ish, as he has done before. He is getting more and more excited (and has started to shut his phone down as he approaches his hot prowl target). Much like Joe DeAngelo (and FWIW, also Joe DeAngelo's brother, according to some sources). So he turns his phone off, not quite sure of what he intends to do (possible). But he has made contact with MM via Instagram at least 3 times before this (I posted the link earlier).
He's energized, amped, scared, etc. He finally parks. He does NOT expect to find the house awake and so "crowded." He HAS thought about what he will say to someone in the house if he encounters them, "Don't worry, I'm just a friend" or similar.
Wow. Makes lots of sense. But it becomes a motive that's elusive for LE and the State, for sure. I will now posit that there's a psychosexual thing going on in this crime (regardless of who did it). It's not overtly sexual, but it is definitely a man who committed this crime, IMO, and three women who died (Ethan is collateral damage). I also believe that if this ever comes to trial (and I think it will), the jury will be asked to weigh in on facts (from the autopsy; hinted at by SG) that may be pertinent.
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All speculation of course. I tend to use actual models of other past, proved criminal behavior in my analysis. I think your analysis fits with all that.
I was very unconvinced by the "he might not have intended to kill everyone" scenarios early on, but I've come around. I am still on the fence, but I do think he might have had MM as a kind of "target." For me, if his acquisition of the Ka-Bar knife was recent (after he moved to Pullman), that's big clue as to his state of mind and his criminality.
IMO.
Nice post, thanks.
I too like to draw upon
"actual models of other past, proved criminal behavior." I am definitely a reader of the "Criminal Minds " books.
I have found that
escalation is a big factor in murder cases.
I hesitate to use this as an example, such a hair-raising case, but the Manson Family members actually went out on creeping missions before they
escalated into murder. They called it creepy crawling. Sneaking into homes in the dark with all the people asleep - then moving items around.
I think Bryan's mode of escalation started with an online social media obsession with one or more of the women. Soon, this was not enough, he needed more contact. This is accomplished by actual physical stalking. Leaving the safety of looking at women online and transitioning into looking at women
in person.
The King Rd.house made it easy for a stalker. Easy access road on the side and actual parking spots on the road behind.The two 3rd floor bedroom windows are at eye-level view which is unusual, normally a 3rd floor is too high to see in. Many drivers coming and going (without notice) along with the "hillside" build of the house, made it fairly easy for a stalker. Including trees and vegetation to hide behind.
So Bryan's next step after looking through windows was to then sneak into the house. Likely he found the 2nd floor slider door was often not locked and made his entry there. Actually, the security lock code on the front door was often not used so friends could easily enter, that includes access for a killer.
I believe the killer had been "creeping " in the house on other nights and was very familiar, in the dark, of how to navigate the layout of the home.
I think there could have been escalation involving the knife, that the knife wasn't brought to the home at first, but was as you said:
"if his acquisition of the Ka-Bar knife was recent, that's big clue as to his state of mind and his criminality."
If he obtained the knife in Pullman during the time he was stalking, then the knife shows a true escalation in his stalking. There is a line being crossed, he is actually fantasizing about a real physical encounter with one of the women, the final step in his obsession.
He went from online views -
then online messaging -
then his online messaging got persistent, it escalated -
then real person views from a distance -
then real person views up close and personal watching them as they slept -
then to an actual confrontation.
Now whether this confrontation was a surprise or whether it was planned for that night we may never know.
But there has to be a path from point A to point B.
Ponit A = Discovering the victims then developing a preoccupation with them then his focus turns to obsession with them then messaging them.
To Point B = He comes into direct physical contact with them.
Frenzy is the only word to describe it because there was OVERKILL. He used the knife by stabbing multiple times which
wasn't necessary to kill them.