4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered - Bryan Kohberger Arrested - Moscow # 76

[Cool Cats]

Yes!

And if we work backward from the witness description (which is one of the most immediate and primary things any investigation will do), we get something like 100-200 young men max (counting locals and not just students) who meet the known criteria of

height, lighter skin, lean build, prominent brows, eyebrow color, shoe size. Let's even say there are 300-400 such young men in the general region. How many of those young men have a phone whose number shows up within the geo-fenced area? How many of them have a white Elantra?

Let's say 20-30 (and I think that's being generous). Then comes the good old gumshoe work. Start looking into all of them. One has applied twice for a LE internship in Pullman. He has a phone that's been inside the geo-fenced area. He meets all the other criteria from DM.

So, obviously, LE talks to the LE in Pullman, who probably says the guy was a bit off but also a criminology student. That's a tiny red flag. But now they have at least one person (Kohberger) who is ringing little bells (they probably had other young men doing same)

They send the sheath DNA results to at least one genetic genealogy company OR they simply get trash from Kohberger's parents' trash (his home address is on file with WSU, who is cooperating, obviously). And the DNA on the sheath is a match for Bryan Kohberger's dad (a paternity match, so about 49.5% of Kohberger's DNA matched the expected contribution from the elder Mr. Kohberger).

That's a full BINGO card right there. Meets all known criteria. Has the right kind of car. Has the phone that traveled from WSU to Moscow that night, then proceeded onward through a new route to Pullman, then comes back again before the murders are ever on the scanner. Even more incriminating. Yep, way plenty for any judge I know.

If after getting BK's dna directly from him, it had turned out not to be a complete match for the sheath DNA, and instead it appeared that BK's dad must have had some other kid in the Washington area committing murders, that would have been very strange. But instead, as expected, BK's DNA matched the sheath exactly.

Only one person's DNA on the sheath and it was the DNA of Kohberger. BK says he can exonerate himself (through his PA attorney) but waives his right to a speedy trial. Meanwhile, the digital evidence seems to say that BK was messaging MM, at least, 3 weeks before the murders and using his own name and his own Insta account. He was apparently following all 3 of the women victims.

Bryan Kohberger Followed All 3 Female Idaho Victims on Instagram: Source

Bryan Kohberger is accused of murdering Madison Mogen, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kernodle and Ethan Chapin

people.com

At the time these accounts were being circulated (mostly by News Nation/Banfield), sources said that this same BK-named account posted BEFORE anyone could have known about the murders, because they hadn't taken place. He repeatedly messaged one young woman.

This last detail is fairly minor, although I think we will hear more about both Maddie and Kaylee having security concerns. How a jury will look at this is anyone's guess.

Kohberger 'liked' all of Madison Mogen's Instagram | Banfield

Sources close to the Idaho killings investigation told NewsNation's "Banfield" that the person who is featured on Bryan Kohberger's phone is the same person that he was reaching out to on social media. The photos were downloaded off of the victim's Instagram. Kohberger also apparently followed...

www.newsnationnow.com

Good post. I like how you are big on links and not just spouting opinion without anything to back it up.

Dovetails into one way evidence is analyzed - using evidence to exclude suspects.

The witness description, the phone records, the car, makes it impossible to EXCLUDE BK.

I think alibi can't be underestimated.

Can people be arrested and sit in jail with an alibi?

Yes!

BK's alibi is narrowed down to the time he turned off his phone...if he is innocent then watch for his attorney to try to explain his alibi.

If guilty, she probably won't mention it.

ALIBI AS A DEFENSE IN CRIMINAL CASES​

https://www.egattorneys.com/alibi-as-a-defense#:~:text=An%20alibi%20defense%20is%20showing,else%20when%20the%20crime%20occurred.

Establishing an alibi dramatically increases your chances of being acquitted of the charges. The courts recognize an alibi defense as a valid defense.

 

[gliving]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/crime-law/interactive/2023/idaho-student-killings-true-crime/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

April 2
Brent Kopacka’s death was hard enough on his loved ones before strangers on the internet started branding him a murderer.

The 36-year-old Purple Heart recipient was shot dead by a SWAT officer in December after an overnight standoff at his Washington state apartment. His longtime best friend, Darin Dunkin, was haunted by the belief that things might have gone differently if Kopacka had gotten the care he needed after suffering a traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan.

Then, online sleuths spread baseless claims that Kopacka was somehow involved in the November stabbing deaths of four University of Idaho students. Scores of posts on TikTok, Facebook and YouTube tied his name to the crime. The accusations were as improbable as they were devastating: By the time they gained traction online, police had already arrested a suspect who they said acted alone and whose DNA was allegedly on a knife sheath found at the crime scene.

“Now, not only is he dead and I’m never going to see him again, but it’s like all these other people are ruining his legacy,” said Dunkin, 36, of Illinois. “Not only do I have to mourn my friend, but I got to defend him, too.”

(much more at link, excellent article)

 

[BeginnerSleuther]

Yes!

And if we work backward from the witness description (which is one of the most immediate and primary things any investigation will do), we get something like 100-200 young men max (counting locals and not just students) who meet the known criteria of

height, lighter skin, lean build, prominent brows, eyebrow color, shoe size.

Where are you getting these descriptors?

 

[Sister Golden Hair]

They have BK's shoe size, but how do you know they have the killer's shoe size? Or is that an assumption based on the PCA which only mentioned one latent print?

RSBM.

imo jmo your remark re the shoe size prompted me to search again about that print. This is the first time other than a few of us saying it here that I have seen anyone suggest that print may have been wiped up. imo jmo go figure.

https//www.fox29.com/news/bryan-kohberger-case-footprint-found-inside-idaho-crime-scene-could-help-cops-build-case

Paul Mauro, a former NYPD inspector and currently a lawyer, said the print is likely important because of how police found it – by using chemicals that detect the presence of blood.

"First of all, they got the footprint, but also it probably helped them develop his path through the house, because by using the technology that they did, it sounds like what they picked up was a blood footprint," he told Fox News Digital. "He stepped in blood of some sort and left that impression, and apparently it's very vague…very faint, so they had to use this technology – which means he might've wiped it up."

bold and italics mine, edited to change prints to print

 

[10ofRods]

If a large percentage of the population has these features, then by definition, it's not distinctive, IMO.



Where are you getting the percentage relating to Moscow/Pullman population. Also, age was never mentioned by DM, so you can't go by BK's age group. You have to go by his height and bushy brows. The height that DM gave was 5'10 or taller, which I believe is likely the average height among the male population in that area, based on the university being there. No idea how we'd find the number of males with bushy brows, but in my personal experience, I believe that's likely not distinctive either. JMO.



Where are you getting the percentages?



And the general population as well. Not all the men in that area are students.



They have BK's shoe size, but how do you know they have the killer's shoe size? Or is that an assumption based on the PCA which only mentioned one latent print?

I am getting the percentage from the anthropological encyclopedias I own or subscribe to. From anthropological articles on the below variables in human anatomy.

You and I are using the word distinctive differently. Very differently.

I am using it in the way that we use it within forensic science, where teams of geneticists, anthropologists, pathologists, LE experts of various kinds, digital forensic people, all meet to try and solve a crime.

So, for example, inside forensic anthropology, there are entire atlases on distinctive features. No feature is universal. If it's not universal, it's distinctive.

There's a reason why police procedure is pretty much the same everywhere. The first thing the 911 operator is trained to do (and this training is not based on happenstance - the research we did using local crime/arrest records from the past 70 years correlated with similar research done in many other places). Here is what developed:

• Most humans, even if traumatized and not able to remember a single other thing, can typically remember if a person appears to them to be "male" or "female" or (more rarely) "unable to determine." That's three distinguishing features right there and it has nothing to do with how many people are in the overall population. That's not what "distinguishing means." For example, another type of distinguish feature could be a large mole at the edge of the left nostril. Thousands of people have that too, but it's a distinguishing feature of the person being described by the witness. So distinguishing features include: age, color of skin, hair type, height, sex, perceived gender, and so forth.
• There are no police reports on murder suspects that fail to mention sex, even though HALF the population is male.
• Police reports typically mention skin color or ethnicity. In Hawaii, police are trained to use a skin-color based system because there are too many mixed people and too many overlapping ethnic characteristics within the current population to do anything else; so having "light skin" is a distinguishing feature in Hawaii; having "kinky" hair is a distinguishing feature many places; weight is a distinguishing feature. So in HI, the distinguishing features might read as "Six foot tall, medium brown skin tone (they have a chart for this), bushy possibly kinky hair, broad nose, brown eyes, hair color black."

Those are all distinguishing features. . In Samoa, it would be nearly all the non-European people who fit that description. In Hawaii, it would be a smaller percentage.

But I'm afraid that I've only ever see this be decided by groups of LE and forensic investigators. Local terms are under constant revision (it's the kind of work I've done since 1980). We want stable physical features for this round of "distinguishing features" (missing fingers are always great - almost no one has them; but if we know the killer did NOT have missing fingers, then all the people with missing fingers can heave a sigh of relief).

Mass murderers tend to be white European-style men, btw. That's a distinguishing feature of mass murderers. So, that's why it's important to think about it. The goal is not to pick out one single individual, but to aid LE in finding a group of people to focus on, at least initially. So as the behavioral team gets involved, certain things start to fall into place (and it's always helpful to know what the person was wearing, carrying or driving - obviously, but those are not "distinguishing" features in this sense)

Many argue against it, but there are basic common sense reasons that when a suspect is sought or there's an APB, the text is going to give sex, approximate height and weight, skin color and anything else that distinguishes that person from other people. It's true the next may catch many - but it will always exclude some, which is the point. A little girl almost abducted from a fast food restaurant near me (last week) could only say "an old fat guy" and give the man's skin color and the fact that he was balding (he was caught almost immediately - cameras everywhere).

TL;DR: If we can find an allele for it and link it to phenotype, it's distinctive (whether it's possessed by nearly everyone or not). For example, Neanderthal lacked the bony protuberance that in English we call a "chin." Some people living today also lack a chin (it's called an archaic distinction). But chins vary and are well studied, so if the chin is not covered, sometimes it becomes a distinctive trait (like a non-cleft chin is distinctive - it paints a picture of the person, even if most people have non-cleft chins; if the perp does NOT have a cleft chin - then all the cleft chin people can relax).

IMO. And in my professional experience. I'm defending LE use of these features as distinctive, as it's all we've got at the beginning of many investigations.

 

[BeginnerSleuther]

I am getting the percentage from the anthropological encyclopedias I own or subscribe to. From anthropological articles on the below variables in human anatomy.

I'm talking about the percentage of people in Moscow/Pullman or the descriptors DM has used in her witness statement?

You said: "About 10-15% of the local population would males in BK's age group."

Where are you getting that 10-15% of the local population would be males in BK's age group? Is it mentioned in some source?

Where did you get descriptors of light skin, shoe size, brow color, or even prominent brows? The PCA doesn't include these descriptors, but your post makes it sound like this is who LE was looking for and I can't figure out based on what.

 

[10ofRods]

Where are you getting these descriptors?

From the PCA and DM's statements and 40 years of professional experience and making forensic calculations about human traits.

Plus years of experience watching LE interview witnesses. Pretty sure DM easily gave them that. If you think there are any people in the US who are not going to mention if a person they saw in their house in the middle of the night (and they could see eyes, brows and forehead) would not also mention skin color, well, we'll just have to disagree about what constitutes common investigative practice.

BTW, height is easily estimated from shoe size - at least within a bracket of 5'10"-6'2". So they had more than one way to figure that. I also believe they lifted a gloved handprint from the slider door, but you don't have to believe that - the foot info was enough to make a very good guess at height (and build, by the way; heavier people have a different type of foot impression).

So yeah, I am on Team LE and I think they actually did their job and had a forensic shoe expert weigh in on height, plus what DM said. They also can see him on tape at Albertson's - my first semester students are pretty good at estimating height to within 3-4 inches with a picture from almost any angle (we use just a protractor and ruler for this; simple geometry).

You think they didn't know his rough height, skin color, weight, etc? The brow ridges are rather the icing on the cake, IMO.

https://anatomypubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ar.b.20025

And from that article (which is juried and very well received) we read:

//The length of footwear impressions can assist in the determination of the height of the track maker. Humans have similar body proportions, and there is a predictable relationship between the length of the foot leaving the impression and the height of the individual. These relationships do not change once a person reaches full growth, but may vary with age and gender.
//

and


//Table 1. Relationship of foot length, shoe size range, height, and percentage of adult males with feet and shoe sizes in each percentile*
��

mm	Inches
Foot length range	Shoe size range	Shoe size/length range (mm)	Height range (feet and inches)	% of adults
251	97/8	41/2–6	6/267–273.5	5′2″–5′6″	1%
254–257	10–101/8	5–61/2	61/2/267.6–277.8	5′3″–5′8″	1%
260	101/2	51/2–7	7/275–282.2	5′4″–5′8″	3%
263	103/8	6–71/2	71/2/283–286	5′5″–5′9″	3%
266–269	101/2–105/8	61/2–8	8/283–290	5′6″–5′10″	11%
272	103/4	7–81/2	81/2/285.4–294.7	5′6″–5′10″	11%
276–279	107/8–11	71/2–9	9/288.3–298.6	5′7″–5′11″	15%
282	111/8	8–91/2	91/2/295–302.1	5′8″–6′0″	15%
285	111/4	81/2–10	10/294.8–306.1	5′9″–6′1″	14%
288–291	113/8–111/2	9–101/2	101/2/300.9–310.2	5′10″–6′2″	11%
294–298	115/8–113/4	91/2–11	11/302.5–315	5′10″–6′2″	9%
301	117/8	10–111/2	111/2/313–320	5′11″–6′2″	2%
304	12	101/2–12	12/311.7–322.8	6′0″–6′4″	2%
307–310	121/8–121/4	11–121/2		6′1″–6′5″	1%
311–317	123/8–121/4	111/2–131/2		6′1″–6′5″	1%

• * These data are for running shoes or other similar flat-soled casual shoes.//

I posted this because you asked how I know percentages of things - that last column is standard in all of this research (whether about foot length or height or weight or eye color or whatnot).

That's why I said that about 10% of the male population (maybe 9-12%) MIGHT have the same shoe size as BK. But the shoe size is known and the forensic print would shoe whether he was wearing his regular size or not (the toe imprints would be visible in the latent print, IMO).

I don't think I need to keep listing traits - but this is what the research looks like and it's being going on for more than a century. Scotland Yard may well have started it off.

IMO.

 

[Sillybilly]

ADMIN NOTE:

There is nothing in the PCA about lighter skin or shoe size. Please see Pages 4 and 5 for DM's description of the individual she saw and the reference to the shoe print.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23564645-kohberger-moscow-pd-probable-cause-affidavit

When referencing specific information contained in the PCA or any other legal document, please take time to link to it and ensure it is precisely stated.

Thank you.

 

[jepop]

BBM. But it also doesn't mean he was. That's important.

You missed my point. In context I was talking about how the alleged killer (in this case BK) could have acquired the weopen without leaving a digital trail. A hypothetical. Wasn't talking about the wider subject of innocence or guilt.

 

[Boxer]

This is so important. I always followed the news growing up and discussed cases with my mom, who is a crime analyst. As part of her job, she is sometimes called as an expert witness and has served as a juror. I was often convinced, from news reports that a person was guilty and grew frustrated when she would remind me of what jurors are instructed to do. I thought it was stupid! "There was so much evidence, why wasn't the person convicted?"

As I matured and learned more about how our court system works, I understood better. However, I know many people--adults--who have not served on a jury, don't fully comprehend the seriousness of the judge's instructions nor how important it is for jurors to follow them. IMO, many of the people who are later exonerated had juries who did not look at the evidence as you said your judge instructed.

I've read many comments, most of them elsewhere, that declare BK guilty based solely on what we know. That big picture take sure points to his guilt, but as mentioned by many here, there are small holes in that evidence. I imagine myself on trial with this case (of course, I'm innocent in this imagining!) or on the jury. What would I want the people responsible for deciding my guilt or not to do, think, proceed? If I was a juror, would I look at the evidence rather than the crying victims or their families? Would I consider actual justice or justice right now?

I would be that juror from 12 Angry Men! Was the accused seen in the car the night of the murders? Is there video evidence of a white Elantra from the cameras at 9 AM 11/14/22, that captured the white Elantra the night before? Was there any blood found outside of the victim's bedrooms (that pesky latent footprint)? Exactly what happened between 4:17 AM and 11:58 AM? Who took the dog out of the house? Was he "locked" in a room barking to be let out or was he wandering around the house looking for his owner and/or food? etc. What was Bryan's reaction when SWAT arrived? If they didn't find the knife, is there evidence that BK ever bought or was given a Ka-Bar knife? If BK is the guy, why was LE looking at Tinder and DD from months before BK moved to WA? So many questions. The DNA evidence is certainly compelling, but there is no way I could follow the usual jury instructions and vote to commit a man to life in prison or worse the DP with just what is publicly available as of April 2, 2023.

I reserve the right to change my opinion once we learn more.

Looking at evidence.
Police investigating all conncections is due diligence.
Car+DNA+prior cell history.

 

[Cool Cats]

Looking at evidence.
Police investigating all conncections is due diligence.
Car+DNA+prior cell history.

LE really pulled the car apart and it will be of critical importance if any evidence is found.

Human, nonhuman fibers, and they also look for cleaning chemicals to hide evidence.

Why Bryan Kohberger's car could be key to case—former CIA officer

Kohberger, 28, is accused of breaking into a home and fatally stabbing four University of Idaho students.

www.newsweek.com

I'm not convinced Bryan cleaning the car after a cross country trip is significant. Cleaning the day after the murders is more suspicious, if he did this.

 

[Boxer]

LE really pulled the car apart and it will be of critical importance if any evidence is found.

Human, nonhuman fibers, and they also look for cleaning chemicals to hide evidence.

Why Bryan Kohberger's car could be key to case—former CIA officer

Kohberger, 28, is accused of breaking into a home and fatally stabbing four University of Idaho students.

www.newsweek.com

He had the car for a month and a half, will be lucky if there is still evidence.

 

[gliving]

Can you please source where you're seeing that he's 5'10?

But again, you're (generic you're, not you personally) taking ALL evidence into account and when a hole is found in one, you (generic you) back it up with everything else. That is exactly the wrong approach, IMO. I think the DNA is the strongest evidence in this case and even that isn't a slam dunk, IMO.

Ever since @10ofRods explained how DNA can remain even after a laundry cycle, I've been a little iffy on the DNA. Assuming BK used a laundromat to wash his clothes, I'm wondering if his DNA could have been in a washer that someone later used.

https://www.floridaforensicscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/DNA-Transfer-During-Laundering-May-Yield-Complete-Genetic-Profiles.pdf

DNA Can Be Innocently Transferred Through a Load of Laundry

DNA testing has come a long way and is now more sensitive than ever. There is a new study showing that DNA can be transferred through laundry. Learn more.

www.bhwlawfirm.com

 

[Cool Cats]

He had the car for a month and a half, will be lucky if there is still evidence.

Only matters if there was evidence and he was able to clean it completely.

Some evidence can sit for years and still be viable.

Unless he had the interior covered in plastic I doubt a trace wasn't left behind, but usable?

A great deal of evidence was analyzed after the PCA so probably new evidence has been turned over.

2 Cents

 

[Barry]

Fascinating discussion in this thread. Thank you, everyone.

 

[Sister Golden Hair]

I'm talking about the percentage of people in Moscow/Pullman or the descriptors DM has used in her witness statement?

You said: "About 10-15% of the local population would males in BK's age group."

Where are you getting that 10-15% of the local population would be males in BK's age group? Is it mentioned in some source?

Where did you get descriptors of light skin, shoe size, brow color, or even prominent brows? The PCA doesn't include these descriptors, but your post makes it sound like this is who LE was looking for and I can't figure out based on what.

imo jmo full disclosure, I only know about this based on what I can google to find out, but based on recent US Census data, the median age in the US is 38, but in Moscow it is 26. I'd argue that based on the description from the PCA, the person DM described could be anywhere from 20-30 easily, but that's jmo imo.

Explore Census Data

data.census.gov

 

[U.N. Known]

Can you please source where you're seeing that he's 5'10?

But again, you're (generic you're, not you personally) taking ALL evidence into account and when a hole is found in one, you (generic you) back it up with everything else. That is exactly the wrong approach, IMO. I think the DNA is the strongest evidence in this case and even that isn't a slam dunk, IMO.

I agree though I know LE asked the judge to find PC without considering the DNA evidence.

 

[Sister Golden Hair]

dbm triple post

 

[Sister Golden Hair]

dbm triple post

 

[Sister Golden Hair]

I agree though I know LE asked the judge to find PC without considering the DNA evidence.

True, but AFAIK ICBW I think it was only for the WA search warrant, not for arrest warrant.

The ID arrest warrant was done at 2:25 pm

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/case/CR29-22-2805/122922%20Probable%20Cause%20Order.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/case/CR29-22-2805/122922%20Arrest%20Warrant.pdf

the PA warrant was signed at 4:35 pm (so with time change, 50 minutes before ID, I think)

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/wfmz.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/1b/b1b2aa78-b902-11ed-a68a-4bba2d612ddd/6400ac39e2a2d.file.pdf

and then
WA followed at 9:25 pm

Kohberger warrant

www.documentcloud.org

so it was already a done deal in two states.

The scope on the WA warrant was narrower, too. In PA they had alcohol on the search warrant lol, so imo jmo it's not apples/apples between ID, WA and PA warrants. this is all jmo imo.