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I agree to some extent about MSM making it sound like this is a slam dunk, but not about the prosecution, who has been remarkably tight-lipped. That, to me, speaks volumes about how much evidence they intend to use, but they know as well as the rest of us that it is NEVER an "easy win." One juror can make all the difference.
I think there's a reason the Prosecution went to a Grand Jury for what I almost want to call "noble" reasons, but really, it was pragmatic.
The autopsy results alone, showing knifing by a KaBar knife of such brutal proportions that no one can sleep at night after reviewing them, combined with the KaBar sheath having a positive and COMPLETE match to a cheek swab from BK...pretty much probable cause right there, and some jurors will see it the same way. Some will want to make a finding and go home to their families.
The file that got handed over was so insignificant (and apparently newly obtained from the FBI - we don't know) so assuming such a small thing was held back on purpose borders on conspiracy theory to me - this happens a LOT in legal cases, both criminal and civil).
Now the Defense has quieted down, being in position of the FBI file addendum (which contains very little information if it's that small). I believe the State when it says it didn't have that file itself, initially. Now everyone has it. It probably contains even more data to put BK behind bars for life - hence, the Defense is "satisfied" (and they should definitely have had the info - but I don't think the FBI was cooperative at first; I do not blame the State for the usual practices of the FBI, who are very fussy about releasing things to anyone).
Meantime, the truly important evidence (also provided by the FBI) is the CAST and other digital analysis - which HAS been handed over. Whereupon BK waived his right to a speedy trial. And now, we will see motion after motion in the pre-trial period, as BK tries to delay the inevitable.
If the State's case was so weak, the Defense would be attacking it viciously, not nibbling at the edges with the DNA analysis issues.
I am assuming that what the FBI had compiled, in terms if IGG, is the actual pedigree of the Kohberger family - which the FBI was reluctant to release, since many of the names on it are people completely uninvolved in this crime and whose identities ought to be protected (and have been, so far as I know).
Someone had to do that pedigree work and I would guess that both Othram AND the FBI did it. The FBI would use more traditional means, not its own database per se - but the FBI can pull up genealogically relevant records with ease, and does so. Expunged crimes still exist for the FBI. All marriage, birth and death data is easily available to them. They know that BK did not have a twin who had died at birth, for example - or had lived in an adopted home.
Was this file helpful to the Defense? Yes! Because they need to know what they're up against. Of course, the file might simply be a copy (in another format) of the same data already received.
But I respect the State for keeping the gruesome details out of a preliminary hearing and do not for a minute believe that the Defense seriously thought the GJ indictment would be thrown out (they used the strategy because it's an expected strategy, but it had its downsides, too - what they got did not exonerate Kohberger, it just made it more clear that it was indeed his DNA, IMO). The risk of an appeal for prejudicing the jury pool would have been considerable and taken years to disentangle. I think the Defense knew the judge was not going to through out the GJ indictment, they just want the public to believe that the State was up to hijinx - when it was the opposite.
One reason the Defense is taking up this type of strategy is that they know they are able to, but also because there's nothing else to do be done.
Keep in mind that if the Defense had evidence or witnesses that exonerate BK, they too have to turn it over (already had to turn it over and must turn over anything new). The Judge has seen all of it. The Judge's rulings also tell a story. This is going to trial. The Judge knows which issues must be put before a jury and he can see that there is enough evidence to require a jury trial.
I'll go out on a limb and say that the Defense's delay tactics (although legally important to future appeals) may also have a downside.
Right now, the case is still very much on the minds of Latah county residents. As the Defense drags out the time toward trial, there is an innate human need for Justice to be swift, and so, people will cease trusting the Defense and start doubting everything it says and does. As we see right here on WS, where most people are very knowledgeable about crimes and criminal procedure. By remaining quiet, the State incurs no such damage.
It was a misstep, IMO, for BK's PA defense attorney to say "He's eager to go back and be exonerated." Ahem. Exoneration is a strong word. "Represent his side of the issues" would have been slightly better. As that hit the headlines, everyone watched the plane fly and then waited for BK to exonerate himself. He got a top notch legal team and did not exonerate himself.
No exoneration. None. The worst alibi I've ever seen registered with a Court. Not even a SODDI element. I will say that this is a clue that BK has said little to his defense - but he certainly did not lie to his attorneys, IMO. He could have said "I was out driving around and I saw ANOTHER white Elantra of about my year, which I noticed." He did not say that because it didn't happen. I think BK is reluctant to lie, btw, I think that's part of his personality.
Slam dunk? No. But I won't be surprised if all of 2024 passes by without a trial.
IME, at that point, the local public gets annoyed (and the chances of finding that one lone crusader who will insist that BK is innocent no matter what...are diminished...the entire set of heated emotions that exist right now will...cool). People who somehow identify with BK due to age, sex or inclination will get older. Younger people are not going to take up his cause, they will have their own current events to follow. The Defense may view this as a fairly good thing - but I see it as rolling the dice.
As awful as it sounds, it benefits the State, IMO, for the Defense to drag things out. It benefits the Defense only insofar as it sets up appeals. When I see that happen, my view is the opposite of yours. I think "Wow, he must be guilty, because they're hanging their whole case on appeal issues - lots and lots of appeal issues."
Everyone knows, deep inside, that if there were any clear cut evidence to undermine the State's case, that the Judge, and both sides now have it. Yet, the Judge is steadily moving this toward trial - inexorably, as he has signaled. He has shown fairness to the Defense, and yet, he is keeping BK in jail without bond and moving directly toward trial. By the time the trial occurs, most jurors are going to include all of the time spent (probably 2 years by then) as ample time for the Defense to find something exonerating.
Which they have not and will not, IMO. The best they can do is go for reasonable doubt - but even that is harder, when the trial takes a long time to set up (from an ordinary juror's point of view, it's common sense). I do think there will be many many motions to extend time toward trial, especially when it gets to establishing expert witnesses for the Defense.
Many will resent the time and money spent. If one juror holds out - that just means another trial in future. And second trials of this type do not usually go well for the Defense, because ALL of the evidence is splashed on the front pages. Further, the State will be able to analyze what that juror had a problem with and the jurors themselves may well make statements (indicating that they think the one juror was in error). Indeed, at that point, the State has the option of dropping the death penalty, and it's possible BK would get an entirely or partially different defense team (people leave jobs, for example). At any rate, he would be in Latah County Jail throughout this time period. There's a psychological factor for jurors in that, as well.
Meanwhile, the longer BK is in jail without being able to provide a story that even remotely makes him look not guilty, doesn't help him at all. If he has a story to tell about how the sheath got his DNA without his ever touching it, he needs to do that right now and the Judge needs to hear it. If it's only BK's story and there's no evidence to hand over to the Court, then BK has to prepare to take the stand.
And that will not go well, IMO. The State's case will be stated both narrowly, succinctly, and broadly, in excruciating detail. What, actually will be the defense? "He was out driving around" is not a great thing to establish in the minds of jurors, IMO.
These are the opinions of a long time court/trial watcher, jury consultant and student of jails and prisons. Also 25 years of working for law firms, DA's and PD's - I've worked for both sides.
IMO.
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