Australia Australia - Celine Cremer, 31, Belgium backpacker, car found at the Philosopher’s fall track, Waratah, Tasmania, 12 June 2023

[NingNang]

A plastic bag strikes me as something you might carry in your small pack. But, if you were wearing it against wet, why would you take it off before you got back to your car?

If she had hypothermia, she may have become confused and disoriented. People with severe hypothermia are known to do irrational things like take their clothes off. It's so sad to think about.

 

[iamshadow21]

Most backpackers bring a small fold-up daypack to take for a walk, to carry water, snack, etc.

A plastic bag strikes me as something you might carry in your small pack. But, if you were wearing it against wet, why would you take it off before you got back to your car?

Has it been specified the bottle was glass? At any rate, many concientous tourists try to avoid waste by refilling one bottle.

My concern is, if lost, she might have gone a long way off track, in no particular direction.

JMO

There are pictures of the bottle.

'Potential shelter' found in bushland search for Celine Cremer

Searchers find a water bottle and a garbage bag that may have been used as a poncho in the Tasmanian bushland where Belgian tourist Celine Cremer went missing.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Rocket333]

A couple of questions about the water bottle and garbage bag that were found today:

1. I saw a comment on Facebook by a random person claiming that Celine’s backpack was found inside her car, suggesting she wouldn’t have taken many items with her on the walk. I can’t find any news source over the past 2+ years of reporting that confirms this claim. Does anyone know if this is true?

2. Rob Parsons posted on Facebook today that the brand of water bottle (Ossa) was sold at the restaurant Celine worked at (Lure Wine Bar). But from what I can tell, the restaurant she worked at was at Coles Bay on the East coast, a long way from this region where she disappeared. What are the chances she would be carrying a glass water bottle from her restaurant while travelling around Philosopher Falls? (It could still be hers though, perhaps she just bought it at a local shop.)

Any thoughts?

I think forensic testing of the water bottle and garbage bag will be crucial. I wonder if her DNA could possibly survive on these items for 2+ years?

You can buy Ossa bottled water in Woolworths and local shops so it’s not hard to get. The bottle found had an expiry date of April 2024.

The return walk from the car park is only 2km’s so you wouldn't bother taking much. If the garbage bag and water were hers, she was probably wearing the bag and holding her phone, car keys and water in her hands or pockets.

'Potential shelter' found in bushland search for Celine Cremer

Searchers find a water bottle and a garbage bag that may have been used as a poncho in the Tasmanian bushland where Belgian tourist Celine Cremer went missing.

www.abc.net.au

 

[acutename]

Most backpackers bring a small fold-up daypack to take for a walk, to carry water, snack, etc.

A plastic bag strikes me as something you might carry in your small pack. But, if you were wearing it against wet, why would you take it off before you got back to your car?

Has it been specified the bottle was glass? At any rate, many concientous tourists try to avoid waste by refilling one bottle.

My concern is, if lost, she might have gone a long way off track, in no particular direction.

JMO

yes... when you watch that searcher's YouTube, you see that off the track, the area there is just a massive tangle of vines and leaves and underbrush. He wears gaiters and gloves because of all the thorns and scratchy stuff and off the track, you cannot see 10 ft in front of you and the ground undulates. I am a little surprised that anyone would try a"short cut" through that terrain.

 

[Rocket333]

yes... when you watch that searcher's YouTube, you see that off the track, the area there is just a massive tangle of vines and leaves and underbrush. He wears gaiters and gloves because of all the thorns and scratchy stuff and off the track, you cannot see 10 ft in front of you and the ground undulates. I am a little surprised that anyone would try a"short cut" through that terrain.

I agree. Given that rough terrain, the time of day, the weather, and the relative ease of returning to the car via the designated falls path, it makes me wonder if Celine stepped off the track to avoid, or even go around, someone who was on it. It also raises the question of whether she might have been followed from Waratah, or if she told someone there she was heading to the Falls and staying the night. I haven’t heard anything though about her phoning for help at any point, so who knows.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

It could have all started by her dropping her phone, by accident and with the light fading and the conditions worsening she wasn't able to find it and got impossibly lost with no way to contact anyone.

 

[NingNang]

I agree. Given that rough terrain, the time of day, the weather, and the relative ease of returning to the car via the designated falls path, it makes me wonder if Celine stepped off the track to avoid, or even go around, someone who was on it. It also raises the question of whether she might have been followed from Waratah, or if she told someone there she was heading to the Falls and staying the night. I haven’t heard anything though about her phoning for help at any point, so who knows.

Just throwing this out there (and apologies to Celine's family and friends if this sounds gruesome - I'm just trying to outline plausible alternatives.) What if she was attacked and the attacker took her phone? For example, the veering off the designated path could be the attacker dragging her away into the dense bush. Perhaps something horrible then happened, and the attacker then continued on through the bush in a bid to avoid being seen by anyone on the main path. This could be why the phone leaves all these GPS points showing a highly unconventional journey through dense scrub, with apparently no calls or texts for help. When the attacker's adrenaline subsides and he realises that her phone is trackable, he throws it away into the bush before fleeing the scene. He may then have removed or hidden her remains over any number of days (it was a long time until anyone noticed her missing, so a perpetrator would have had many opportunities to come back and shift her body).

I agree there's no actual evidence of foul play (this is all 100% speculation), but it surprises me how many people just assume that all of the phone's GPS coordinates must be Celine's conscious decisions about where to go. We don't know who was holding that phone as it moved around.

 

[Rocket333]

Just throwing this out there (and apologies to Celine's family and friends if this sounds gruesome - I'm just trying to outline plausible alternatives.) What if she was attacked and the attacker took her phone? For example, the veering off the designated path could be the attacker dragging her away into the dense bush. Perhaps something horrible then happened, and the attacker then continued on through the bush in a bid to avoid being seen by anyone on the main path. This could be why the phone leaves all these GPS points showing a highly unconventional journey through dense scrub, with apparently no calls or texts for help. When the attacker's adrenaline subsides and he realises that her phone is trackable, he throws it away into the bush before fleeing the scene. He may then have removed or hidden her remains over any number of days (it was a long time until anyone noticed her missing, so a perpetrator would have had many opportunities to come back and shift her body).

I agree there's no actual evidence of foul play (this is all 100% speculation), but it surprises me how many people just assume that all of the phone's GPS coordinates must be Celine's conscious decisions about where to go. We don't know who was holding that phone as it moved around.

I get where you’re coming from. The isolation and ruggedness of that spot just makes the whole “attacker dragging her off into the scrub” idea pretty hard for me to picture. That terrain is brutal and going off the Falls path would throw you into an endless and exhausting obstacle course rather than a shortcut back to the car. It would completely slow anyone down, make them more likely to get hurt or lost, and definitely not make escaping easier.

That place is also remote, and if you were there to attack someone you possibly would not need to leave the main walk to carry out the attack or to avoid being seen. The remoteness of the car park and on the Philosopher’s Falls walk already gives plenty of cover. That’s why it doesn’t make much sense to imagine someone bothering to haul a person — or even just a phone — through that kind of inhospitable ground. There’s no advantage in it, and no reason to ever go off the path unless you were hiding or lost your way I think.
This is why the water bottle and garbage bag will most likely turn out to be Celine’s. Not many would venture to that area easily or willingly as there’s no need to be there.

 

[Grouse]

I agree. Given that rough terrain, the time of day, the weather, and the relative ease of returning to the car via the designated falls path, it makes me wonder if Celine stepped off the track to avoid, or even go around, someone who was on it. It also raises the question of whether she might have been followed from Waratah, or if she told someone there she was heading to the Falls and staying the night. I haven’t heard anything though about her phoning for help at any point, so who knows.

From what I gather it was getting close to darkness falling, and it was said that the app on her phone indicated the route she took off the track as a potential shortcut. I'd have thought more likely she was just trying to get back to the car before it got dark, and sadly made a fatal mistake.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Celine Cremer searchers hope phone, bottle forensics hold new clues

After new breakthroughs in the search for missing tourist Celine Cremer in the dense Tasmanian bush, the wait begins for the results of forensic tests on items discovered in the forest.

www.abc.net.au

Celine Cremer searchers 'take a breath', as they wait for forensic tests on phone, plastic bag and bottle

Official search suspended until forensic results return

Mr Parsons said he had been informed it could take weeks for the bottle to be tested and months before data from the mobile phone is released.

"It didn't make a lot of sense to keep [going] in the area and really focus the area we're in if it doesn't turn out to be relevant," he said.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

After finding the phone there I would personally continue searching now rather than wait weeks for forensics to come back.
I do get that it's hard work searching in the difficult terrain.

And what about Celine's friends who came over to help search, can they afford to take indefinite leave from their jobs.

I'm just surprised they don't want to get right back to searching, after what they've found already.

 

[Grouse]

After finding the phone there I would personally continue searching now rather than wait weeks for forensics to come back.
I do get that it's hard work searching in the difficult terrain.

And what about Celine's friends who came over to help search, can they afford to take indefinite leave from their jobs.

I'm just surprised they don't want to get right back to searching, after what they've found already.

Yeah, it does sound like they are very close to finding her now, though the team probably need a rest as well, sounds exhausting doing the 50m grid square searches in that dense undergrowth.

Guess the "weeks for the bottle to be tested and months before data from the mobile phone" statement doesn't necessarily mean they are intending to wait for that though.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Linton Harris, SES volunteer, speaks about the search for Celine Cremer

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

VIDEO: Linton Harris, SES volunteer, speaks about the search for Celine Cremer

1min 49 sec

 

[Grouse]

Linton Harris, SES volunteer, speaks about the search for Celine Cremer

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

VIDEO: Linton Harris, SES volunteer, speaks about the search for Celine Cremer

1min 49 sec

That's answered a question I was wondering about - they're not seeing any other stuff at all that's been left by anyone else so the things they have found would almost certainly appear to be Celine's.

 

[Rocket333]

That's answered a question I was wondering about - they're not seeing any other stuff at all that's been left by anyone else so the things they have found would almost certainly appear to be Celine's.

Same here. Everything seems to be lining up now, with poor Celine finding herself in the toughest situation and one she might’ve survived with some sunlight.
After 2½ years out there, it’ll be interesting to see what’s left to find, but anything found is likely to be hers. It makes sense that she would’ve been wearing the garbage bag to stay dry and holding onto her water bottle, so it’s intriguing that they haven’t found anything else at that same spot like boots or clothing. Also, the garbage bag is light enough to drift over time but the bottle wouldn’t so much, yet both items (from what I understand) were found together.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Maybe the bottle at some point was used to hold down the bag if it was being used as a shelter.

Am I wrong but it does look like it's made of quite heavy glass.

My theory goes out the window if the bottle was plastic.
It could have been used to hold the bag down but only if it still had some of the drink inside.

 

[acutename]

Same here. Everything seems to be lining up now, with poor Celine finding herself in the toughest situation and one she might’ve survived with some sunlight.
After 2½ years out there, it’ll be interesting to see what’s left to find, but anything found is likely to be hers. It makes sense that she would’ve been wearing the garbage bag to stay dry and holding onto her water bottle, so it’s intriguing that they haven’t found anything else at that same spot like boots or clothing. Also, the garbage bag is light enough to drift over time but the bottle wouldn’t so much, yet both items (from what I understand) were found together.

she does not have to be super close to the phone if she lost it- she could have been stumbling around for several days at least if she tried to keep moving, hoping to come to a trail or road. IMO. Wonder if they found anything else on her phone. Another possibility, if she was lying down for the night is that she was startled by something, woke, jumped up, lost the phone, bag, bottle.

 

[Cedars]

she does not have to be super close to the phone if she lost it- she could have been stumbling around for several days at least if she tried to keep moving, hoping to come to a trail or road. IMO. Wonder if they found anything else on her phone. Another possibility, if she was lying down for the night is that she was startled by something, woke, jumped up, lost the phone, bag, bottle.

I watched the long videos by YTer Rob, linked above. It clarified a few things for me.

He had the data of her phone pings, and her gps points from google maps. Every time she checked for her location on gmaps, that location was recorded in the cloud. It is very accurate, pinpointing exact spots.

It appears she started checking google maps beginning at 3:32 pm, and would check every few minutes. Her last location check was at 4:18 pm. After that, she never checked gmaps again, however her phone did ping with cell towers for a few days, from what was likely a stationery location (so the phone was not dead).

This is why Rob had a strong belief she'd dropped her phone, not too long after 4:18 pm.

It was midwinter in Tasmania, sunset was at 4:50 pm, and it was already quite dark in the forest.

The location where her phone was found, must show the direction she travelled after she had last checked gmaps. They apparently have continued trying to go in whatever this direction is, and by doing that, found what appears to be her bottle/bag..

One can only speculate, but it appears she was trying to get back to Philosopher Falls. Whether deliberately or by acident, she appears to have walked passed the falls and on a stream bed that hugged around a steep hill.

Once she pulled out her gmaps, she headed back towards the falls and, IMO, decided to take a shortcut up and over the hill she had earlier walked around. She got to the top of the hill without it being too bad, but the way down the other side was blocked by crazy thick brush, fallen crisscrossing trees, etc. So she was trying to find her way down when she lost her phone.

JMO

 

[NOLandsMan]

I watched the long videos by YTer Rob, linked above. It clarified a few things for me.

He had the data of her phone pings, and her gps points from google maps. Every time she checked for her location on gmaps, that location was recorded in the cloud. It is very accurate, pinpointing exact spots.

It appears she started checking google maps beginning at 3:32 pm, and would check every few minutes. Her last location check was at 4:18 pm. After that, she never checked gmaps again, however her phone did ping with cell towers for a few days, from what was likely a stationery location (so the phone was not dead).

This is why Rob had a strong belief she'd dropped her phone, not too long after 4:18 pm.

It was midwinter in Tasmania, sunset was at 4:50 pm, and it was already quite dark in the forest.

The location where her phone was found, must show the direction she travelled after she had last checked gmaps. They apparently have continued trying to go in whatever this direction is, and by doing that, found what appears to be her bottle/bag..

One can only speculate, but it appears she was trying to get back to Philosopher Falls. Whether deliberately or by acident, she appears to have walked passed the falls and on a stream bed that hugged around a steep hill.

Once she pulled out her gmaps, she headed back towards the falls and, IMO, decided to take a shortcut up and over the hill she had earlier walked around. She got to the top of the hill without it being too bad, but the way down the other side was blocked by crazy thick brush, fallen crisscrossing trees, etc. So she was trying to find her way down when she lost her phone.

JMO

This all sounds very sensible! While we should always keep an open mind about things, I think it's best to use Occam's Razor. When people go missing in the wilderness, it's almost always misadventure and not foul play. For the most part I find that sort of conjecture to be a distraction and not very helpful.

 

[Malleeboy]

Been following Rob's videos for a few months now.
If the water bottle and garbage bag are indeed hers, then she got close to the Water Race, which is quite an obvious pathway from the videos I 've seen.
The other question is if where they found the bottle and bag is where she spent the first night, and she was wearing the garbage bag to protect from the rain, she then took it off and left both it and the bottle in that location. If she had it on, surely you would only take it off the next morning.