I’m late to this one and apologize if I’ve missed it, but have police said what evidence makes them believe a crime has been committed as opposed to Trisha getting bogged, trying to walk for help, and falling down a mine shaft or getting lost and succumbing to the elements?
That I recall police have not said specifically what makes them suspicious. I'd guess they have info/evidence that they don't want to disclose yet.
IMO there are a few things that make it suspicious (but there are also counterarguments):
- where her car was found: out of town, in the opposite direction of where she would go to go home, in a place she didn't even know about -> if she was very drunk (as it was alleged) and disoriented she may have simply driven in the wrong direction or the car was simply dumped there to make it look like she did.
- A few things in the car did not make sense (maybe missing beer cans, her card missing, maybe some unexplained damage in the front, etc) -> again, if she was driving under the influence of alcohol she may have further damaged the car driving between Smurf's house and blue dam. And she may have had the bank card in her pocket and walked away from thew car taking if with her.
- the last people to see her (allegedly) are two "acquaintances", one of which she had known only for a short period of time and the other she had just met that night through the first person IIRC (I wonder if there is any history about those two...I have a bad feeling about them)
- Tony and his friend went to look for her at blue dam the day after, even though she had never been there before. why? did they just go as part of searching various locations nearby or did they go directly there?
- even if we consider that she may have gotten bogged at blue dam and walked away, I recall seeing somewhere that the closest mineshaft is ~1.5km from where the car was found. I think there would be obvious traces/tracks/footprints of her walking that distance. Equally if someone else dropped the car off there and drove off with another vehicle, there should be signs of it (tyre tracks). Of note, because Tony and his friend had already been there before police, tracks or prints may have been contaminated/erased.
I wish we knew more!!