The problem with Daniel Robinson's story is if there was foul play, then why? What's the motive? Did he run into a stranger out in the desert? Did the cartels get him? This is a part of the story everyone seems to have a problem explaining, who would want to harm a random geologist in the desert?
All of the stuff I'm about to go over is just my opinion but it is backed up by a ton of circumstantial evidence. Warning, this is a little long but everything is explained in detail.
In the police report they touch on multiple theories. There is one regarding Katelyn and that maybe some guy that knows her took care of Daniel. They asked Billy to take a polygraph and executed multiple search warrants of his possessions. They go down the mental health route a few different times and they even include eyewitness sightings of people who were missing their left hand instead of their right. Suffice to say Buckeye PD cast a pretty wide net over what could have happened.
I think the most interesting part about all the implications and theories in the police report is the one motive they didn’t include, Daniel’s job. There are actually multiple posts in this forum that contend this theory was checked early on and no evidence was found. That’s interesting considering what was going on when Daniel went missing and what happened in January of 2023. If that theory was checked, why isn’t it in the police report like all the rest?
Most of you already know that Daniel Robinson was a geologist, but not everyone realizes that Daniel wasn’t just a geologist, he was a hydro-geologist. His job with Matrix/SW Groundwater, which he started in 2019, was to test well sites for viability in and around the Phoenix area, including Buckeye.
When Daniel was testing these well sites in June of 2021, the Buckeye water model was being finalized. This water model was supposed to show the valley how much water they had and how much more they could allocate to new projects in the area. Buckeye is one of the fastest growing cities in the country, this water model is pretty important. Here is an article detailing that the water model was being finalized the same month Daniel went missing. After saying they were finalizing the water model in June of 2021, it wasn’t released-
A new model could reveal major water trouble for Buckeye. Release it now
“ The June 2021 letters stated that the department is finalizing its groundwater model and report and “has information indicating the proposed subdivision’s estimated groundwater demand for 100 years is likely not met when considered with other existing uses and approved demands in the area.”
"A year and a half after writing these letters, the department has had ample time to complete its Hassayampa Subbasin model and report. But despite the huge importance of this study, the department’s findings have yet to be published and remain unavailable to the public.”
In 2023, the administration in Arizona changed, Katie Hobbs beat republican Ducey for Governor of the state. After Katie Hobbs won, she forced the release of the Buckeye water model and said that she didn’t understand why the model was hidden from the public and the legislators in congress, she then halted all new developments in the are pending review.(1:00 timestamp)-
"I do not understand and do not in any way agree with my predecessor choosing to keep this report from the public and from members of this legislature."
In order for new developments to be built in Arizona, they have to be able to prove their housing developments have access to 100 years of water, it's called Assured Water Supply.
Once the water model was released the city of Buckeye immediately spent 80 million dollars on water rights outside their city limits-
The city of Buckeye approved purchasing $80 million worth of groundwater rights to support the growth of its water portfolio.
www.abc15.com
Now all of this is pretty strange, Daniel was a hydro-geologist testing well sites in Buckeye at the exact same time the Buckeye water model was being finalized. That model was then buried from the public for 2 years until a new administration forced its release. That model shut down developments in the area. Oh and the City of Buckeye completely denied even knowing about it.(1:20 timestamp)-
Now how could this connect even further? Because at the very least everything I went over is interesting when you think about foul play involving Daniel Robinson. Well It gets a lot more connected than that.
Again these are only theories, they are backed up by some facts, but they are just theories. I’m open to being proven wrong, I’m really open to any theory.
The 1st well site Daniel visited on verrado way was being tested to see if water could be pulled, it was then capped for future use in August of 2022, 2 months after Daniel went missing-
1 year later it was sold to the City of Buckeye and added to their water portfolio. That’s interesting, but what’s downright weird is that Buckeye Police Chief Larry Hall became a City Manager the exact same month this well site was sold to Buckeye. Larry Hall was then replaced 6 months later by a guy with an extensive background in water management, Larry Hall had none and said the role “wasn’t for him”-
Buckeye city manager Dan Cotterman has named Javier Setovich, P.E. as deputy city manager. Setovich replaces Interim deputy city manager Larry Hall, who has returned to his previous position as …
www.yourvalley.net
If Daniel was testing these wells and found out they didn’t have enough water, like the Buckeye water model ended up showing, he would be obliged to come forward with these findings. Think about this, WHOEVER was the author of the buckeye water model and whichever hydro-geologists doing the testing in 2021 would have known about the shortfall of water at that time. They chose not to come forward themselves, letting it stay buried until Katie Hobbs was elected.
It connects even further when you include a memo that Matrix/SW groundwater shares with its potential clients, sighting that their modelers adapt to the needs of the clients(not the state) in regards to 100 year water supply-
I thought to myself, well why not just fire Daniel? But then I remembered, the city of Buckeye has denied knowing the water model's existence at all. Meaning if they fired Daniel for not approving wells, he could go to the media and the city of Buckeye would no longer have plausible deniability.
This really seems like something that could have been affecting Daniel in the days/weeks leading up to his disappearance. Being pressured to approve well sites by your job would stress anyone out. Let's go over a few things Daniel did before the 23rd that might also connect to this water theory.
Daniel visited the verrado way site two other times before the 23rd of June, once on 17th for 2 ½ hours and once on the 21st for almost 3 hours. On the 21st, which was a Monday, Daniel was also seen at the office. His coworker Roger said it was unusual to see Daniel at the office (Daniel was in the office multiple times right before he disappeared), and that he wasn’t in a good mood. Daniel was later seen by Roger leaving while carrying a box. The only thing I can think of that would be in that box would be water/dirt samples.
The day before Daniel went missing he sent a text at 3:07pm to Katelyn saying saying-
“The world can get better, but I'll have to take all the time I can or we can, whatever to name it. I'll either see you again or never see you again."
This text to Katelyn was sent presumably while Daniel was at work, about an hour after sending this text message he texted his sister “its an emergency”.
An hour and a half after sending the SOS text, Daniel was seen on camera at a waffle-house around 4 miles from his apartment, but he didn’t have his Jeep Renegade. The waitress herself said Daniel seemed off and there is also a comment that was left on a you-tube channel that i thought was interesting-
Daniel left the Waffle house at around 7pm and took an Uber home, his sister was waiting for him when he got there and he said it was a false alarm and just Daniel being Daniel. The very next day Daniel disappeared into the desert.
It seems to me, if foul play was involved, then Daniel knew about it right before he went missing. His mental state being the way it was could have had to do with the pressure at his job. Whatever happened to Daniel between the text to Katelyn and showing up at the Waffle house must have really shook him up.
There are other parts of the story that connect to this water theory but I think that's enough for one day. I actually don’t think Daniel was silenced by one of the developments, I think it's more about Daniel’s company losing contracts in the area because he wouldn’t approve wells.
I’ve sourced pretty much everything I’ve gone over here but if you see something I missed feel free to point it out. And like I said, I am open to being debunked and scrutinized. I could be way off base here but there sure is a lot of smoke.
EDIT- I had some dates mixed up regarding Katelyn and when Daniel was at the verrado site, they are fixed now.
