AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #11

[Deleted member 718]

IMO, if they passed they wouldn't be under such scrutiny by LE. 14 days later, they would have been ruled out.

Like I said previous times, polys are not end all be all but there is something more than the polygraphs that is holding back LE from telling the public nobody is ruled out including the parents. They've been back to the house 3 times from what I can tell. This last time was the same day the cleaning crew was there and the same day they did the interview with NBC. All 3 went in separately including the 14 year old brother.

Their stories are still not adding up is what I would conclude based on activities to date.

The searches remained within a 3 mile radius and have not expanded (excluding border awareness to Mexico). Detectives have scaled back on their search. What remains are volunteers putting up posters and family, friends and the community doing fund raisers, selling bracelets and tshirts and praying.

I'd like to know if LE gave the parents the green light to have a SAR team come in to search. If not, why?

Yes, we know polygraphs are a useful tool only, not a definitive result. IMO the reason the parents can't been ruled out is because they cannot provide an alibi for the time Isa went missing. They were in the home. Isa disappear under their watch. I can't imagine the agony they face.

As to the 3 mile radius search, I'll bet LE has received tips that have led them way beyond this zone. I understood the 3 mile search radius was the area Isa could have traveled if she wandered away. LE considers all possibilities when a child goes missing. Isn't that why her alert went from "missing child" to "endangered missing".

 

[Prof]

Thanks for the link to the interview, White Rabbit. To answer your question, the uncle is not a POI, and therefore it's not okay to post his personal information beyond what is reported in MSM.

You can discuss his statements. You can post your impression of him, and your interpretation of his statements. That's fine. Just keep it reasonable. Here's a guideling to consider before posting: if asked to explain your opinion, can you provide a MSM link that supports it? If no, then you should probably reconsider posting it.



Rules Etiquette & Information - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

I suppose we should bump again.

 

[~n/t~]

As far as I know they have never returned to live in their home since Isa went missing. The only time I know they came back with LE to meet at the home was just the other day. They have gone back to gather items they needed in their daily lives a couple of times.

I dont see where the police is continuing to scrutinize them. They do continue to update the Celis family on the case per LE and the family. I see no rift between LE and this family. I do understand the family's frustrations that LE has spent so much time on them. Heck, Mark Lunsford got highly ticked off with LE too with them spending so much time on him and his parents and all the while Jessica was across the street being raped and murdered by Couey. LE also returned frequently to the Lunsford parents and their home to keep assessing anything they may have missed.

Police do not ever comment on poly results so this case isnt any different and not every family member that takes one and passes rushes out to toot their own horn to tell everyone they passed. Lunsford didnt and I like that honestly. All that needs to know the results is the family and LE.

IMO, this is going to be like countless other cases we have discussed over the years where LE rules no one out until and if an arrest is made.

Scaling back searches happens when the case has gone on for this long. N/t, this case is not really any different than other cases. In fact in other missing cases the searches didnt even go on as long as this one has and they are still searching and the flyers of Isa is still being put out in Mexico.

Yes, it has been 14 days and not once has LE come out and named these parents as suspects.

IMO

BBM....the term scrutinize was used in the interviews and the parents agreed they were being scruitinized and also said if that's what it takes, be it (paraphrasing) They also said LE was keeping them "at bay". I interpret this to mean they're not sharing a heck of a lot with the parents. LE continue asking them questions which, so far, according to LE, they have cooperated.

They haven't been named suspects but the fact is they haven't been ruled out either but neither has anyone in this case including family, friends, relatives, neighbours, coaches, teachers.

They scaled back the searches after 4 or 5 days, IIRC. The focus remained within the 3 mile radius and never expanded.

 

[cluciano63]

OMG, what is going on in this case??
Does LE believe there is a random predator out there and if so, will they ever say so?
Anything more on the other incident?
Why are people not beating down LE's doors in a panic...I might be, if I had kids and lived and paid taxes in Tucson...
This all just seems to have a somewhat casual air about it...
JMO

 

[pieper4]

I thought that some of JMs charges were in Cochise County so that may be why can't find in Pima database

There are some in Pima (TPD) and one in Douglas (Cochise Cty).

 

[Lava]

BBM....the term scrutinize was used in the interviews and the parents agreed they were being scruitinized and also said if that's what it takes, be it (paraphrasing) They also said LE was keeping them "at bay". I interpret this to mean they're not sharing a heck of a lot with the parents. LE continue asking them questions which, so far, according to LE, they have cooperated.

They haven't been named suspects but the fact is they haven't been ruled out either but neither has anyone in this case including family, friends, relatives, neighbours, coaches, teachers.

They scaled back the searches after 4 or 5 days, IIRC. The focus remained within the 3 mile radius and never expanded.

This is about 75%-85% of the reason I am still uncertain of the family. I have my gut feelings and everything, and I still have my theories that don't involve the family - but for me, this is big. And yes, I know in other cases some families have been scrutinized when they have been innocent- but there are also cases where they haven't. If LE would say they are cleared and have nothing to do with this case, I would focus all my theories on alternatives, but I have to keep the current status in mind.

 

[~n/t~]

Yes, we know polygraphs are a useful tool only, not a definitive result. IMO the reason the parents can't been ruled out is because they cannot provide an alibi for the time Isa went missing. They were in the home. Isa disappear under their watch. I can't imagine the agony they face.

As to the 3 mile radius search, I'll bet LE has received tips that have led them way beyond this zone. I understood the 3 mile search radius was the area Isa could have traveled if she wandered away. LE considers all possibilities when a child goes missing. Isn't that why her alert went from "missing child" to "endangered missing".

I've always seen it as endangered missing on the NCMEC website. I don't know what the reasons for the 3 mile radius and I'm not sure LE confirmed it one way or another. Did I miss the reason they remained focused within that area because they thought she wandered off? Is there a link? TIA

Good point about the alibi. Mom has a semi alibi, I suppose. She was at work when Isa was found missing in her bed. We still don't know what time she was at work and not sure why they can't say.

There isn't much we know even after the parents were interviewed. We do know (if you believe the parents), the family was home alone that night. Nobody went over there after the game and nobody slept there overnight.

We don't know if the entry point was the window. Dad thought it was but now he has second thoughts. He didn't really say why. Was something else discovered? Open garage? Unlocked door? Someone had a key?

Still many unanswered questions.

 

[Deleted member 718]

With over 900 tips sent in, I'm positive the search for Isa has moved beyond the initial 3 mile radius ground search. It's a given that by now Tucson LE has turned the town upside down looking for Isa.

 

[~n/t~]

OMG, what is going on in this case??
Does LE believe there is a random predator out there and if so, will they ever say so?
Anything more on the other incident?
Why are people not beating down LE's doors in a panic...I might be, if I had kids and lived and paid taxes in Tucson...
This all just seems to have a somewhat casual air about it...
JMO

Thank you, clu for using the word "casual". I was looking for the right word to describe yesterday's interview and couldn't come up with a word.

Casual is right on the mark. It was so "casual". I would be frantic especially if I wasn't ruled out after 14 days knowing I was innocent and the focus remained on me. I'd tell them to get off their butt and start looking for my daughter or I'd get private investigators or professional SAR in to do it.

 

[gitana1]

All of the blue stuff above is my take on things. I could be misinformed.

I have seen nothing to suggest Isa has only one uncle.

JM didn't just speak one time, to one news source. He spoke multiple times with different news agencies. And every single one has him identified as an "uncle," info that would have come from him. So whether he's her uncle or not, he's identifying himself as such.

His interview with KGUN on that Saturday shows him being VERY active in the search on the very Saturday she went missing. Here's the video and article:

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/148384415.html

Here he is talking to ABC News:

http://gma.yahoo.com/missing-arizon...k-9s-clue-143603524--abc-news-topstories.html

Here he is talking to CBS on Sunday. Please watch this video. He is actually seen talking with LE and directing them with a pointed finger:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_...e-of-isabel-mercedes-celis-missing-ariz-girl/

He also spoke to KVOA, and I'm sure to other stations, too. This was just from a quick search.

Point: He was the "spokesperson" over multiple days, and seemed to be everywhere, handing out fliers, giving interviews, directing LE. And these are all different interviews, not one taped appearance.

And I firmly believe that was him at the neighbor's door at 8 a.m. asking about Isabel, aka what had she seen or heard?

NG and JVM reported that he used to live in the home.

I think the parents unwittingly let a predator in...

Thank you so much for finding all these clips. I'm a good researcher yet every time I had to search for his interviews, I could only find the ABC one!!! Excellent.

I will note though that two clips you posted are the very same interview. The third looks like he is wearing the same clothes as the other interview and it does not appear to me that he is directing LE in any clip. The guy he is standing next to and pointing something out to is wearing casual clothes, a shirt with some kind of slogan on it or silkscreen print. Not an LE uniform.

May I ask why everyone believes the bolded part?
That is what I am asking.

How are we connecting this uncle who by the next door neighbor's account on NG is JM? Does this neighbor say that it is the same guy who was on the news for example? Does she call him by name?
I personally cannot make the leap to assume that since JM was calling himself an uncle, that he was the one knocking on the door.

I also know that Isa has more than one uncle.

Not everyone does believe this but it keeps being repeated as if it is fact. We have no clue if JM is the person who went door to door that morning.

I absolutely, positively knew someone was going to say that. And it's not true.

The KGUN interview is with a KGUN reporter one-on-one. The ABC interview is with an ABC reporter. Etc etc.

BTW, I absolutely understand that stations share their coverage. But it is simply not true that he only spoke to one station, one time, and they are all sharing that one "source" video.

But I know I'm going to take a beat down for saying it, so I urge everyone to watch the videos for yourselves. I provided three links, and there's more. People can watch and see for themselves.

I watched each one. Two are for sure from the same interview. The third are statements that are always quoted along with statements from the first interview. So it definitely looks like either one or two interviews at the most.

Thank you. I watched all three but didnt find anything strange about them. What am I missing?

IMO

His use of past tense 24 hours after Isa went missing. That's what concerns me. Also, I note "distancing" language. "The mother" when referring to Becky Celis. He never uses Isabel's name. Stilted, partial sentences.

Of course maybe some of that is editing.

I will also note that for me, other than his quick use of past tense language, he appeared to have moved to Tuscon about a year ago, has photos of Isabel on his FB and on a dating site, including one of the both of them together (but not the brothers) and discusses on his FB loving being loved and loving being an uncle. This tells me that a major change in Isabel's life in the last year has been this family member coming to town and being involved in her life.

I think any major change in Isabel's life in the last year is important.

But, for all I know, this guy has nothing at all to do with this. I have no clue, just looking at all possibilities. I think the chance that it was someone who knew the home and family well is better than a stranger abduction due to the circumstances of the disappearance like the home layout, the dogs, etc., although I know strangers have gone through worse to take a child from their home.

 

[Lark2]

Regarding JM's media appearances, I posted 3 links because I wanted people here to watch them.

I wanted them to see that there wasn't just one source video, and that JM had a LOT to say.

It would be really, really nice if, instead of making this about who's right about the number of local vs. national stations, we could do something productive like add any media links where JM is mentioned, so that we can then post everything that was said by him side by side.

For instance, in one interview, he told the reporter that 'We're hoping she just took a walk and got lost and is on her way home." I had never hear that before until I just watched that station's coverage this morning.

He may have told other reporters other things.

I did a quick search and pulled in 3 links.

Can others here find more and watch and extract other comments that we may not have heard already?

 

[gitana1]

There are some in Pima (TPD) and one in Douglas (Cochise Cty).

And also some in Florida.

 

[~n/t~]

With over 900 tips sent in, I'm positive the search for Isa has moved beyond the initial 3 mile radius ground search. It's a given that by now Tucson LE has turned the town upside down looking for Isa.

Perhaps you and I are differ on the what search means? Tips being called in from a sighting in Canada (as an example), wouldn't be considered searching. I meant LE physically searching ponds, landfills, yards, dumpsters all over Tucson. Haven't seen it reported and they haven't said they are except that they're following the credible leads wherever those lead them. So far, my understanding is a lot of them are from blogs which don't seem to be helping them or panning out. IMO

 

[Knox]

Day 15: Amount of detectives scaled back because of weekend

TUCSON (KGUN9-TV) - During the 11:00 a.m. press briefing Saturday, Lt. Fabian Pacheco told the media there are 15-20 detectives working the case over the weekend.

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/150290805.html

Nothing new

 

[Knox]

JM didn't just speak one time, to one news source. He spoke multiple times with different news agencies. And every single one has him identified as an "uncle," info that would have come from him. So whether he's her uncle or not, he's identifying himself as such.

His interview with KGUN on that Saturday shows him being VERY active in the search on the very Saturday she went missing. Here's the video and article:

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/148384415.html

Here he is talking to ABC News:

http://gma.yahoo.com/missing-arizon...k-9s-clue-143603524--abc-news-topstories.html

Here he is talking to CBS on Sunday. Please watch this video. He is actually seen talking with LE and directing them with a pointed finger:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_...e-of-isabel-mercedes-celis-missing-ariz-girl/

He also spoke to KVOA, and I'm sure to other stations, too. This was just from a quick search.

Point: He was the "spokesperson" over multiple days, and seemed to be everywhere, handing out fliers, giving interviews, directing LE. And these are all different interviews, not one taped appearance.

And I firmly believe that was him at the neighbor's door at 8 a.m. asking about Isabel, aka what had she seen or heard?

NG and JVM reported that he used to live in the home.

I think the parents unwittingly let a predator in...

Bumping your post with links-

 

[Lark2]

I have seen nothing to suggest Isa has only one uncle.
I watched each one. Two are for sure from the same interview. The third are statements that are always quoted along with statements from the first interview. So it definitely looks like either one or two interviews at the most.

How do you know they are from the same "interview?" He says different things in each.

Every crew in town had a camera and reporter down there that day. It is possible that multiple stations filmed him at once, but the more likely scenario is that each team pulled him aside for their own quotes with their own reporters asking their own questions.

That is why, once again, I am asking people here to look for and post as many links as possible that have him in a video so that we can see the different things he says. He may have said diffeerent tyhings to different news crews. Everything in these 3 videos I posted contains different info.

I am no better researcher than anyone else, BTW. The stuff's out there if anyone wants to find it.

 

[panthera]

OMG, what is going on in this case??
Does LE believe there is a random predator out there and if so, will they ever say so?
Anything more on the other incident?
Why are people not beating down LE's doors in a panic...I might be, if I had kids and lived and paid taxes in Tucson...
This all just seems to have a somewhat casual air about it...
JMO

I am not seeing a great sense of urgency in this case either, which is leading me to believe there may not be any solid evidence that an intruder was inside the house and abducted Isabel. LE does appear to be investigating all angles, not having ruled out any scenario however.

MOO

 

[gitana1]

List of questions we would like reporters to ask, or things we would like reporters to find out. Feel free to add to!:

1. Who was in the home the night before Isabel went missing?
2. Who put her to bed or did she put herself to bed?
3. What time did Rebecca leave for work?
4. Was the "uncle" who came to the neighbor's home the morning Isabel went missing, someone we have seen on the news? Who was he?
5. How, if at all, is JM related to the family?
6. Where does JM live?
7. Why was Becky Celis' child endangerment/DUI/vapors charge dismissed? What did the police report state?
8. What's the deal with the camera on the Celis' home? Was it ever operative? Why was it pointing to the sky?
9. Was there a party the night before Isa went missing or was the boy in one of the interview videos speaking about Isa playing at the park while her brother had a game?
10. How many dogs did the Celis family have? Were they inside the night before Isa went missing or outside?
11. Who was the man (and teen boy) who were going into the Celis' gate in an interview and questioned intensely by LE? Did they have permission from the family to be there?
12. Where are the dogs now? Who is caring for them?
13. Can we have an accurate floor plan of the Celis home?

 

[Pensfan]

I have seen nothing to suggest Isa has only one uncle.

Respectfully shortened
On part 2 of their video (now on youtube), Becky states "my brothers".

 

[gitana1]

How do you know they are from the same "interview?" He says different things in each.

Every crew in town had a camera and reporter down there that day. It is possible that multiple stations filmed him at once, but the more likely scenario is that each team pulled him aside for their own quotes with their own reporters asking their own questions.

That is why, once again, I am asking people here to look for and post as many links as possible that have him in a video so that we can see the different things he says. He may have said diffeerent tyhings to different news crews. Everything in these 3 videos I posted contains different info.

I am no better researcher than anyone else, BTW. The stuff's out there if anyone wants to find it.

Two of the links contain portions of the very same interview. One interview has a bit more than the other but parts of them are identical. I will try to transcribe.