AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

[Prof]

Why would he return to the scene of the crime the following night at the same time (as seen on video)? Especially since media and LE were everywhere, and he was lurking right near the "Command Center". That doesn't add up for me.

:waitasec:

I am not sure exactly what is being asked about my late night made up scenario lol but quite a few of us assume the surveillance LE mistakenly published as taken the night Isa went missing, may have been from the night before she went missing --Thursday into Friday, not the night LE was there blocking off streets....as discussed around page 30 of thread 8.

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #8

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #8

My scenario had no return to the scene of the crime at all. I disclaimed it was just another possibility to explain why the OM store with seemingly the best positioned cameras did not seem to have picked up anything.

(still from the NG show interviewing Mr. Moore)



This was just a scenario, that came about last night while I was discussing this NG video
http://www.mooresecuritysolutions.com/rick-moore-speaking-with-nancy-grace-on-hln

 

[bwilson]

I have a new hypothesis - won't even call it a theory because its based on a gut feeling and past experience rather than any facts.

What if Sergio and Becky have been having problems for a long time...married at 21 to a possibly controlling man Becky could have been getting tired of it and had maybe even threatened divorce. I know there are no domestic court cases to prove a volitile relationship, but that doesn't mean there wasn't abuse (and now hearing of CPS's earlier involvement it seems even more likely). What if Sergio had Isabel "abducted" as a way to hurt Becky. If he had some friend/distant relative pick her up at 630 am, about the time the neighbor heard male voices. If Becky had not yet left for work, maybe she was in the shower and he could have made sure she didn't peek in on Isa that morning.
Or, maybe at 630 she had already left the house...?? By the time he reports her missing at 8:15 Isa is through the border, its open at that time. It could explain the calm 911 call and the searches in Mexico and even the NCO, if police are on to him. I know its kinda far-fetched and I hope no one is offended by this, but men can do crazy things. Please dont think I'm being racist here either because my husband is Hispanic and most of my previous relationships have been w Hispanic men, I'm just saying, there is a stereotypical, arrogant, controlling type demeanor that SC puts off, IMO and I think he could be capable of something like I described if he and BC were having marital problems...

 

[Deleted member 718]

I have no experience with CPS and don't know of anyone that has. What are the types of things that someone might report? I've heard of CP being called for abusive situations in a home, either sexual, physical or mental. I would imagine someone might call if the kids were not being taken care of such as wearing dirty clothes, living in a dirty home or being outside on the street, etc. by themselves. Would people call if there was a lot of people coming and going at all hours? Would they call if they thought there was some type of criminal activity in the home? I'm not saying any of these things did happen in this case, I'm just truly curious as to other reasons for calling CPS.

Truancy is a mandatory report. If a student goes over so many days in a quarter CPS gets an automated report, then contacts the family.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/12/19/20111219courts-cracking-down-truancy.html

 

[LisaB]

*scribbling furiously in Junior Detective notebook*.

I think I may have a new theory...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Spill it! Or, wait... blue is for sarcasm? :banghead:

 

[Anita Richman]

An aside, KGUN had nothing regarding the CPS report on it's morning coverage. FWIW

 

[Prof]

Is this the third dog?

No.
We've seen this dog many times, and we have seen the dog who limps.
There were three dog citations, and my point was we have only seen images of two.

 

[Prof]

Sorry if it's been answered already, but we have been SPECULATING (in caps, so it's not misunderstood as a FACT) that the surveillance tape wasn't for the night AFTER she was taken (noting the absence of media and LE in the video) and instead was some evening PRIOR to her abuction.

Thank you.

 

[Shelby2]

You are correct regarding there not being an order, since SC voluntarily agreed to "No contact" with the boys. IMO, AZLawyer did a terrific job explaining what a "Voluntary" - CPS agreement involves. Here is a link to the discussion, starting at post #23 and continued on the next page:

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=172284

jmo

Thank you! I was just going to look for this!

 

[LisaB]

How is this neglectful? I don't understand.

This may sound dumb, but he said they came home and took showers, then Isa had Becky do her braids and went to bed. When asked what she was wearing the last time he saw her, he described the outfit she wore to the game the night before. Becky corrected him later on the shirt, saying she had on a blue Old Navy flag shirt instead of the tank top he described. It honestly doesn't sound like she showered. That's just my opinion, but I can't see why she would wear the same thing after her shower, though I can see why she might have changed out of a light colored shirt that got dirty. It was quite late, and speaking for myself, I might have told my 6 y.o. to skip the shower tonight and get one after her game in the morning.

I do not necessarily find an occasional skipped shower as "neglect" but I felt that maybe Sergio did and tried to make things sound like he thought was "right". Since the boy who called 911 thought she was in "Pajamas. Pink or maybe green" it sounds TO ME ONLY as if she owned PJs and would have had on PJs if she had showered, unless she was dressing in advance for her game the next day (in her team jersey and shorts/pants, which she didn't).

 

[iSleuth]

I can't speak for AZ, but in MD, a child of 8 may be left at home alone provided he or she is able to pick up a phone and call for help if needed.

A child of 13 is considered old enough to be left in charge of siblings under 8.

Yes technically- I once heard the safe age of kids babysitting each other at home should be that their combined ages should add up to 20 years of age. But it really depends on all the kids, and every other circumstance. Their ages 14+ 10+6


for what it's worth- I'm a mom ( my kids are B G B: 24,21,19) and a teacher / Mandatory Reporter :coffeews:

 

[Nvgirl]

I have four kids 3 boys 1 girl Ages 15,10 and twins boy/girl that are 9. My girl always sleeps with her twin brother and 10 year old brother, i dont think thats odd at all. Would i think if my 15 year old would want to? yes, but would he if he had too? yes. They all fight and make me crazy but at the end of the day they are close and they all watch out after her. She is the princess in this house. Maybe those boys new something was up, kids tell it all mb she told them stuff :-(

 

[LisaB]

I believe her!
I just think she is the only one on that street to publically say anything.

Didnt they have a video of ppl walking down the street around that time talking and joking around from some bar or club down the road?
Also i think they used this cps thing to just seperate this family in hopes that they start talking i do believe they are holding alot back!


All JMO

The people walking down the street occurred at 1:30 AM on the night AFTER Isabel disappeared. It was the wee hours of Sunday AM. LE admitted they had provided the wrong day's footage in error. Even if it had been the same night, people walking by at 1:30 would not cause dogs to bark at 6:30, and the group was more than 2 men, it was a group of 5 males and females.

 

[Prof]

I am surprised that it took a month for this news about CPS to surface.

I am surprised it came out at all before anyone is charged of anything.
IMO I am surprised that this recent "safety plan" last week did not go straight to a court issued "no contact order" much earlier in this case.

I am still in shock, but IMO if there is any CPS involvement prior and then a child goes missing, that is time for a no contact order in court, until child is found.

 

[LisaB]

Going to throw my theory/opinion in here. Forgive me for my grammer and if all this is already been said. Everyone keeps talking about SC being up all night. Maybe he was and it was because someone said were coming to your house. Whoever this was waited until RC left for work. This could be the voices heard by neighbor. SC couldve been pleading ill do what you want dont take my daughter. Whoever it was he knows them and doesnt feel she will be harmed as long as he does as told. This theory would explain his lack of emotion 911 call. The other thing is everyone being hung up on them taking the girl and not the boys. I say because there are 2 boys. He only has 1 daughter. So this moo based on all info ive tried to keep up with.

Furthermore, on the 911 call, the son did not say someone had slipped in, grabbed Isa, and snuck back out. He described something sounding a bit more like a "home invasion" which people have indicated is more typical of cartel violence. He definitely used words that sounded like he meant he had witnessed this happening and that it was chaotic. He also sounded a little scared.

 

[Prof]

According to unconfirmed sources, A cousin or uncle lived with the family for part of 2011. 2011 ended (obviously) in December. CPS was in contact with the family in December.

Snipped for space

Whose unconfirmed sources? Does this mean rumor on threads? Is there a post I might view where this comes from?
TIA!

 

[Nvgirl]

In NV i think 10 years to stay alone for a short amount of time and 12 to babysit the others. I think 10 to stay in the car while running. I will have to read the laws again. When i had 3 in diapers and have to run to the local store I new all those laws, i would have nieces watch them.

 

[white rabbit]

Truancy is a mandatory report. If a student goes over so many days in a quarter CPS gets an automated report, then contacts the family.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/12/19/20111219courts-cracking-down-truancy.html

ok wait...great point. this may have had nothing to do with isa at the time, but here's a random thought...JM moves into town and in two months gets three dee-wee's, so, indicative of his extra-curricular behavior...is staying with the C's...gets minorjunior involved in some not-so-great-stuff and is as a result reported truant by the high school...the C's kick out JM but by december the damage is done...CPS gets wind of it and has to visit the family.

when isa is reported missing, JM still feels guilty and wants to help "right" it by the C's so jumps on camera and tries to involve himself for redemption purposes. they of course tell him to stfu and he goes back to hiding under the couches he's surfing.

maybe? thoughts?

 

[jennapuppy]

I have never put much stock into what she said. At a MINIMUM I think her times are off, and it's possible she dreamed something that seemed real to her later when she heard about Isabel. I do not consider her a suspect by ANY means, but wonder why she would tell such a story if it wasn't true. As you pointed out, she IS the only source of this information, concerning men talking inside the Celis' fenced yard. Why would they be talking softly if the dogs were all over them. How could they talk softly and still hear one another with all the dogs going crazy?

Her account makes it sound like these guys were just hanging out talking with no particular urgency, and she did not hear Isabel. If the 6:30 voices represent the abductors, AS is correct in saying she went willingly, as two men talking just loudly enough to be heard through/over that massive wall, while dogs barked would have to have awakened her.

The problem I've always had with her story is that it puts these men outside the window around the time that RC was getting ready/leaving for work. If they were there at this time, it seems that she could have seen them.

 

[CarrieBean]

Furthermore, on the 911 call, the son did not say someone had slipped in, grabbed Isa, and snuck back out. He described something sounding a bit more like a "home invasion" which people have indicated is more typical of cartel violence. He definitely used words that sounded like he meant he had witnessed this happening and that it was chaotic. He also sounded a little scared.

That could be due to his father telling him that someone kidnapped his little sister.

 

[Prof]

I'm thinking that if it's something benign like that we are going to hear an explanation from the family pretty soon, rather than let people speculate about more sinister stuff.

I am going to guess that CPS is not going to get involved in something as "benign."