CA CA - Barbara Thomas, 69, from Bullhead City AZ, disappeared in Mojave desert, 12 July 2019 #10

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  • #881
Why No Current Searches in Mojave for BT (AFAIK)?



Thanks, peeps for the ^ posts. :) bbm
Why not do we not see any news about county sheriff's personnel continuing to search?


1) Nine days in desert w/out prep & supplies is not compatible w life (sadly), so further searches would be recovery, not a rescue operation as of ~2 mo's. ago. Without further info re foul play, LE gen'ly do not continue searching.

2) County sheriff's personnel, esp deputies, have other duties, like 911 calls & other known crimes to work.

3) Per info* below, a lot/most of the boots on the ground are volunteers. Sheriff ofc coordinates/commands SAR, has some staff & command posts like RV on scene, etc. When 80+ ppl on some days were out looking for BT, IDK how many were deputies. I venture to say a minority.

(Locally our fire & rescue team is all volunteer, many/most w full time jobs, so participating in a search usu means time off from work. Some employers are more lax than others. They have weekly training sessions/drills/various certifications requirements**/continuing ed, etc. On fire-fighting side, they personally each pay their own turnout gear - jacket, pants, boots, helmet, gloves etc, $1500-2000. II think ditto for most/all of their SAR gear.) Not a hobby they take up on a whim.

I've read about numerous ppl on the initial SAR team who return w a partner or group to the 'last place seen' off and on week-ends, long after the official search is discontinued. Dedicated ppl.

{{{ETA: It's possible BT will be found, whether by LE, SAR thru deliberate search, or others accidentally, imo.}}}
---------------------------------------------------------------

* "In the United States there are many organizations with SAR responsibilities at the national, state and local level. Most day-to-day SAR missions in the US are run by the County Sheriffs [140] except in states like Alaska,.... They in turn, can request help from state and national resources, if they think they need them. A typical Sheriff's Office has a volunteer SAR team that matches the terrain and population of that county. SAR members are typically trained in the Incident Command System (ICS),[141] first aid, and the outdoor skills needed in that terrain and climate...."
Search and rescue - Wikipedia
**Education - NASAR
{ETA: idk what the extra attachment /file is}

Yes, most SAR are volunteers and are not paid. Most are not reimbursed for their gear. When they are sent out during their full time job work hours, they usually use vacation to cover mission days. Many times missions happen in the evenings and weekends, so that helps.

Most do not self deploy, they risk their position with their organization, they also would not be covered if they are injured. Some SAR, if injured on a official mission, are covered under their states Dept of Emergency Management System. I can not speak to every county and states SAR organization.

I know of a SAR K9 handler who self deployed to help a family of a missing hiker, her heart was in the right place but she was not invited back to training when they found out. Self deployment in most cases is a no no.

LE could absolutely coordinate another official SAR effort for BT. I’m not sure if they will. It really depends on many factors.
 
  • #882
Al66pine, I don't know how to alert someone and make it come up in blue, but above is the link you requested of the weather report.
Sorry, I didn't see it before.

I'm trying to catch up on pages of posts. I dunno if you were told how to tag. @ MsBetsy take out the space though between @ and username
 
  • #883
bbm


Not necessarily. Variables would be at play, such as shape, position and direction of the 'fall'. What if a boulder only rolled off the top of other boulders, much like a ball rolls down a hill. Or maybe a very irregularly-shaped boulder pivoted on its downward-facing 'end' and collapsed on a flat side?

We do not know specific and relative locations of BT and RT to the rock formation and to each other when BT 'disappeared'. RT could have been at the end of the formation farthest from the Kelbaker/Hidden Hill intersection while BT was approaching an area closer to the intersection. That could be a significant distance and depending on the how the boulder(s) shifted, the 'noise could have been only a brief, low rumble or impact sound. RT could have been so wrapped up in what he was doing or so distraught after not finding BT that he either did not hear a noise loud enough to cause notice or he forgot hearing it while under stress of searching for an eventually-missing BT. Who knows what other sounds occur within the confines of the larger desert, near and distant and how they simply go unnoticed in the broader context of a focused excursion.

Right, good thinking. It could have sounded like a passing truck, or anything else out there. It's definitely worth considering, especially with no other trace of her.
 
  • #884
I don't think there is any conspiracy as far as RT goes. I believe BT is another person unfortunately lost in the desert. That is why IMO we don't hear anything from LE.
 
  • #885
  • #886
Regarding how far/easily sound would carry at that location -- IIRC the weather data someone posted for the Kelbaker/HH area on the relevant date showed that it was a breezy day. This would make hearing much more difficult even when directly downwind of a noise, and nearly impossible when not. Obviously this depends on the strength of the wind and on the loudness of a noise.

Now: re my bolded above, may I respectfully suggest that a few factors are fostering our inability to get a solid handle on the temperature issue. One is that few if any of the weather collection stations are anywhere near the location where the Thomases supposedly were. Weather in a location dozens or hundreds of miles away could be dramatically different, especially in areas where there are mountains and other elevation changes involved.

Also, our current conversation is taking place during the precise few days when many parts of California are experiencing an abrupt end to summer. Example: last Thursday, the high temperature at my home* was in the mid 80s. Right now, Sunday morning, there is snow on the ground. *I am nowhere near the Mohave and am not comparing my temps to theirs, only pointing out that there has been rapid cooling over the past few days over most of California.

So when one person is posting about the current or previous day, and another is posting about the upcoming weekend forecast, you might both be correct even though your numbers are 20 degrees apart.

Also please be aware that online weather data has some inherent unclarities. First of all, there are official weather collection stations (mostly run by NOAA) and those stations have strict placement and reading protocols to give accurate data. Private companies such as wunderground or weather.com/The Weather Channel may use NOAA stations but may also include private weather stations in their data, and the private stations have no guarantee to be located or read in a statistically accurate way.

And, importantly, when on a commercial site such as wunderground, I can look at data for a very small town or rural area as long as there is at least one private backyard weather station there. If there isn't, the site may use data from a "nearby" station but still appear to be for the requested location. Further, when I click the tab to see that place's "calendar" of weather over the past month or historic averages, the source "backs away" to a major urban area whose actual weather may be drastically different from the original location inquired about. When I do this for my home location, I get shifted to a location 150 miles away and 4000 feet lower in elevation.

When I start with Baker, CA (the nearest "real" town, someone said, but already 50 miles NW of Kelbaker/HH), it gives data instead from Ft. Irwin, 40 miles farther west and almost a hundred miles distant from the place we want to know about. Then if I click the "calendar" it bumps me to Las Vegas McCarran airport which is 100 miles northeast of where we want.

Second attempt -- I ask wunderground for data for Amboy (30 miles south of Kelbaker/HH). Now it uses Twentynine Palms (50 miles even further south so we're already 80 miles away) as the source data, and then if I select "calendar" it bumps out to Palm Springs, yet another 50 miles south, so now one might be tempted to think that temperatures from Palm Springs, well over 100 miles away, are at all reliable indications of temperatures at Kelbaker/HH, when they are not.

Bottom line is that one should (IMO) not trust online weather information without being aware of where the data was actually collected. Similarly, we should (IMO) remain aware that just as all of California does not have consistent or even remotely similar weather, this is also true for San Bernardino County (as has been pointed out this is, sizewise, the biggest County in the lower 48 and bigger than many US states and even some countries) as well as true for the Mohave Desert -- a very large area with large elevation and topographic variation that will affect temperatures.
 
  • #887
Two earthquakes, one a 6.4- and the other a 7.1-magnitude, hit Trona, CA (epicenter) one week before BT went missing while walking near Kelbaker and Hidden Hill roads. Trona is 120 miles as the crow flies from that intersection.

BT and RT were exploring one of the large 'rock formations'; I'm wondering if some of those stacked-high huge boulders had loosened from their perches, wondering if it was possible that one fell completely just as BT was walking by? The boulders could have shifted during the earthquakes and many aftershocks and eventually gave way so many days later.

Given that "no evidence of Barbara Thomas was found" on each search day, and LE does not believe there was an abduction and they don't believe RT is good for this case, what's left other than maybe BT was crushed under a huge boulder as it fell? Many of those buggers are large enough to conceal a small vehicle.

Article dated July 10, 2019, two days before BT went missing:
Following earthquakes, no reports of missing adventurers in Mojave Desert – San Bernardino Sun
How much effort would be involved in getting a cadaver dog out to the rock formation?
 
  • #888
Whether Weather Info is Accurate. The Mystery is Solved.
@Auntie Cipation
. Thanks for your post here. You are my new favorite relative ;)
I'm nominating you as the official Websleuths Meteorologist. Anyone wishing to second the motion, pls press "like" on Auntie's post. This explanation is so enlightening. Enough gushing (for now).

Also please be aware that online weather data has some inherent unclarities. First of all, there are official weather collection stations (mostly run by NOAA) and those stations have strict placement and reading protocols to give accurate data. Private companies such as wunderground or weather.com/The Weather Channel may use NOAA stations but may also include private weather stations in their data, and the private stations have no guarantee to be located or read in a statistically accurate way.
When I start with Baker, CA (the nearest "real" town, someone said, but already 50 miles NW of Kelbaker/HH), it gives data instead from Ft. Irwin, 40 miles farther west and almost a hundred miles distant from the place we want to know about. Then if I click the "calendar" it bumps me to Las Vegas McCarran airport which is 100 miles northeast of where we want....
Second attempt -- I ask wunderground for data for Amboy (30 miles south of Kelbaker/HH). Now it uses Twentynine Palms (50 miles even further south so we're already 80 miles away) as the source data, and then if I select "calendar" it bumps out to Palm Springs, yet another 50 miles south, so now one might be tempted to think that temperatures from Palm Springs, well over 100 miles away, are at all reliable indications of temperatures at Kelbaker/HH, when they are not....
Bottom line is that one should (IMO) not trust online weather information without being aware of where the data was actually collected.
.... Mohave Desert -- a very large area with large elevation and topographic variation that will affect temperatures.
bbm sbm
 
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  • #889
Really hoping as temps cool down that someone, whether SAR or hikers find Barbara!
 
  • #890
Whether Weather Info is Accurate. The Mystery is Solved.
@Auntie Cipation
. Thanks for your post here. You are my new favorite relative ;)
I'm nominating you as the official Websleuths Meteorologist. Anyone wishing to second the motion, pls press "like" on Auntie's post. This explanation is so enlightening. Enough gushing (for now).

bbm sbm
Yes, this is why there really is no point in debating what the actual temperatures are. The graph I saw on line showed different temperatures for different elevations and that was just the average.

When I look up the local temperature where I live, it rarely matches the actual temperature.
Just yesterday it said it was 72 degrees but when I went outside it felt like it was at least 80.
So I consider any temperature to be an approximation of what it actually is.

IMO
 
  • #891
August 16 is still a long way away .. That is the date I can go to this area and search..
So.......
Since I purchased this Drone... I have joined SAWRM.. talked with the owner of swarm and educated myself on Who is using drones and for what purpose. Drones have gone from a toy to an emerging technology and now to a useful tool for industry as well as SAR teams working for Sheriff dept. as well as Fire dept nation wide.. Worldwide Too...

So the question is.. Did this SAR group already use Drones ? Have they grid searched the area already?
If so... Can our @dbdb11 VI find out and If they did will they release the Vids to him and he to US ?
Then everyone can view the vids and zoom in and out looking for evidence of the victim Barbara Thomas last position...
What could it hurt in any investigation..???????????
It is Free Labor :)
And possibly somebody finds an article of clothing allowing SAR to go back in and find her..
 
  • #892
August 16 is still a long way away .. That is the date I can go to this area and search..
So.......
Since I purchased this Drone... I have joined SAWRM.. talked with the owner of swarm and educated myself on Who is using drones and for what purpose. Drones have gone from a toy to an emerging technology and now to a useful tool for industry as well as SAR teams working for Sheriff dept. as well as Fire dept nation wide.. Worldwide Too...

So the question is.. Did this SAR group already use Drones ? Have they grid searched the area already?
If so... Can our @dbdb11 VI find out and If they did will they release the Vids to him and he to US ?
Then everyone can view the vids and zoom in and out looking for evidence of the victim Barbara Thomas last position...
What could it hurt in any investigation..???????????
It is Free Labor :)
And possibly somebody finds an article of clothing allowing SAR to go back in and find her..
Thank you so much for your effort and devotion to find Barb!!
 
  • #893
August 16 is still a long way away .. That is the date I can go to this area and search..
So.......
Since I purchased this Drone... I have joined SAWRM.. talked with the owner of swarm and educated myself on Who is using drones and for what purpose. Drones have gone from a toy to an emerging technology and now to a useful tool for industry as well as SAR teams working for Sheriff dept. as well as Fire dept nation wide.. Worldwide Too...

So the question is.. Did this SAR group already use Drones ? Have they grid searched the area already?
If so... Can our @dbdb11 VI find out and If they did will they release the Vids to him and he to US ?
Then everyone can view the vids and zoom in and out looking for evidence of the victim Barbara Thomas last position...
What could it hurt in any investigation..???????????
It is Free Labor :)
And possibly somebody finds an article of clothing allowing SAR to go back in and find her..
You probably meant to post that November 16 is the date you can search.

I agree that drones can be a useful tool for SAR teams. I wish you luck in your endeavors.
 
  • #894
You probably meant to post that November 16 is the date you can search.

I agree that drones can be a useful tool for SAR teams. I wish you luck in your endeavors.
You are so Right !! Mods Help Needed !! It won’t allow me to edit ..
 
  • #895
August 16 is still a long way away .. That is the date I can go to this area and search..
So.......
Since I purchased this Drone... I have joined SAWRM.. talked with the owner of swarm and educated myself on Who is using drones and for what purpose. Drones have gone from a toy to an emerging technology and now to a useful tool for industry as well as SAR teams working for Sheriff dept. as well as Fire dept nation wide.. Worldwide Too...

So the question is.. Did this SAR group already use Drones ? Have they grid searched the area already?
If so... Can our @dbdb11 VI find out and If they did will they release the Vids to him and he to US ?
Then everyone can view the vids and zoom in and out looking for evidence of the victim Barbara Thomas last position...
What could it hurt in any investigation..???????????
It is Free Labor :)
And possibly somebody finds an article of clothing allowing SAR to go back in and find her..
Well, the VI is the one who requested the Drone Search so I'm assuming it has not been done.

As far as I know, LE has never given him an answer to that request.

But if there is any way to find someone who can conduct one using thermal imaging, I think it would be very useful.

It can help to either confirm or discount whether or not a body is there.

IMO
 
  • #896
Yes, this is why there really is no point in debating what the actual temperatures are. The graph I saw on line showed different temperatures for different elevations and that was just the average.

When I look up the local temperature where I live, it rarely matches the actual temperature.
Just yesterday it said it was 72 degrees but when I went outside it felt like it was at least 80.
So I consider any temperature to be an approximation of what it actually is.

IMO
I think when the weatherpeople say the temps, they don't do it in direct sunlight, so it will be likely hotter in person in the direct sunlight. Also doesn't take any humidity factors into account (which I think the desert likely doesn't have an issue with??!!) ie here where I live, they'll post a temp, and then also a 'feels like' temp, which is much higher due to our humidity levels. Whatever the temps were for that day however, my bet is they weren't 'direct sunlight' temps.. and not sure how much protection from sun there would be in the location where B was said to have been? jmo.
 
  • #897
I think when the weatherpeople say the temps, they don't do it in direct sunlight, so it will be likely hotter in person in the direct sunlight. Also doesn't take any humidity factors into account (which I think the desert likely doesn't have an issue with??!!) ie here where I live, they'll post a temp, and then also a 'feels like' temp, which is much higher due to our humidity levels. Whatever the temps were for that day however, my bet is they weren't 'direct sunlight' temps.. and not sure how much protection from sun there would be in the location where B was said to have been? jmo.
Yes, I've noticed that. Whatever temperature the current report says it always seems much warmer. My car seemed like it was 100 degrees when it was reported to be around 70.
As soon as I walked outside I knew it couldn't be 70. Imo
 
  • #898
I think when the weatherpeople say the temps, they don't do it in direct sunlight, so it will be likely hotter in person in the direct sunlight. Also doesn't take any humidity factors into account (which I think the desert likely doesn't have an issue with??!!) ie here where I live, they'll post a temp, and then also a 'feels like' temp, which is much higher due to our humidity levels. Whatever the temps were for that day however, my bet is they weren't 'direct sunlight' temps.. and not sure how much protection from sun there would be in the location where B was said to have been? jmo.

BBM

Actually, the desert humidity tends to be low except for monsoon season (which we have entered). Humidity where I live has been running about 45% in the morning down to about 20% or less later in the day.
 
  • #899
They searched for nine days because that is the longest time anyone could possibly be alive in those conditions. Imo
They said they will search again if there is any new evidence.
I don't know anybody who could survive the desert for 9 days in a bikini and no water.Maybe your experience is different than mine.
 
  • #900
MsBetsy said :
They searched for nine days because that is the longest time anyone could possibly be alive in those conditions. Imo
They said they will search again if there is any new evidence.


I don't know anybody who could survive the desert for 9 days in a bikini and no water.Maybe your experience is different than mine.
@Chingaling. Thanks for your post.
Not answering for @MsBetsy re nine day search time as longest desert survival time, although I more or less repeated it in one of my posts.
Probably more accurate to say nine days in those desert conditions (no prep, no supplies, no gear, no water, etc) is longer than feasible survival period, imo.
I wonder if, starting at days 4-5, LE & SAR viewed it more as recovery than rescue mission.
jmo.
 
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